Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Robert Reich on the wealth gap and recession

Fresh Air had an interview with UC Berkeley professor and former Clinton labor secretary Robert Reich, who recently published "After Shock" about how vast wealth disparities contributed to the Great Crash/Depression and our current economic downturn.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130189031

The two years when the richest 1% of Americans controlled the most wealth in the US (~23% of all income) were 1928 and 2007. Coincidence? Reich argues that this wealth gap leads to recessions for two reasons: first, the middle class has less purchasing power and can't afford to keep up with standard of living gains (or rising costs of living partly due to Wall Street profit taking), so they resort to credit until it dries up, and then consumer spending just plummets. Second, the rich and those who control the factors of production are reaping huge earnings from financial and technological innovations, which encourages them to invest in more risky, speculative ventures. Obviously this is a recipe for problems. The wealth concentration before the Depression was partly due to the mechanization expansion of US industry at the turn of the century (Ford and Rockefeller types). New consumer goods like cars and radios became more affordable for the middle class, and credit flowed freely until the crash and the failure of 25% of US banks. During the New Deal and WWII, everyone was put to work for the war effort, and FDR enacted labor rights laws and social security, which helped the middle class recover and thrive.

During the Baby Boom, the richest 1% only controlled just 9% of America's wealth. I think they were still doing well, but the middle class was doing great, and there were more of them. But the OPEC embargo, rising unemployment, and stagflation in the 1970's eroded some of the gains. What partially prevented the recessions of the '70s through '90s from being longer was the entry of women into the workforce, and an expansion of the US work week (not by law, but by corporate edict). The US work week was ridiculously long (with only Sunday off) during our Industrial Revolution, then gradually shortened as we entered the Baby Boom, but started to lengthen again in the '70s, to the point when Americans now work much longer than Europeans and even longer than Japanese. This increased productivity and earning power, because back then they still paid for overtime and more workers were unionized. Though extra productivity only translated to so much extra disposable income as inflation and interest rates reached double-digits, so the middle class was pinched again and resorted to credit to make ends meet. During the Carter Era (though it got worse during the Reagan and Clinton years), the government enacted policies to promote a decades-long real estate boom fueled by tax breaks and credit (maybe with good intentions of raising living standards and making the American Dream more accessible, but was ultimately unsustainable). Financial deregulation also removed many Depression-era barriers to riskier speculation, so the construction industry and Wall Street fed off each other. The 1980's signaled another era of capitalist dominance, as computers, automation, globalization, and exotic finance gave them new powerful tools for the rich to grow their wealth, coupled by drastically lower taxes and gradual erosion of worker rights. The trend worsened into the 21st Century, and we know the rest.

Our economy is not dependent on the rich, but on the consumption of a secure and confident middle class. They may control a quarter of total wealth, but there are fewer of them, and they'd rather earn a "reasonable rate of return" than buy that 20th toaster. If the lower classes didn't matter, then why did Wall Street seek to exploit their buying power in the last decade through the expansion of subprime/payday loans and "no hassle" credit cards? I don't buy the contrary argument, though it is true that the rich pay a lot of taxes (that's the whole point, unless we are living in an undemocratic plutocracy, as some Citi analysts concluded in a leaked letter to their VIP clients: http://www.scribd.com/doc/6674234/Citigroup-Oct-16-2005-Plutonomy-Report-Part-1). But companies and the rich pay much less taxes than they should in fairness. Higher taxes don't have to hurt business as they allege, because hopefully the government would use that revenue on smart spending to spur growth of sustainable commerce (though their spending record is not great, but again it's partly due to policies favoring the rich and condoning waste).

The basic GDP equation is the sum of household consumption (C), investments (I), government spending (G), and net exports (NE). C is over 2/3 of our GDP, and the rich contribute a lot, but it's mostly powered by the sheer number of middle class families. So when the rich and the companies they lead enjoy preferential treatment, they take away from G (by paying less taxes, which leads to deficits) and really only help to increase I, but during recessions I loses value, so they'd rather hoard cash than lend or hire: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/hoarding-hiring-corporations-stockpile-mountain-cash/story?id=10250559. And when they do spend, they may choose overseas investments which aren't taxable and don't help US GDP (remember the IRS probe into UBS? http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2008-06-30-irs-swiss-bank-ubs_N.htm). So in my (biased) view, they rich are a net drag on the economy and society. If the rich didn't exist, the rest of us would have more purchasing power to grow GDP, and the government would have a smaller deficit. Maybe we'd still consume frivolously and get into credit trouble, but at least wealth wouldn't be so concentrated, so our boats would rise and sink together.

[Former Fed Chairman Mariner] Eccles had nagging concerns that by tightening credit instead of easing it [during the Depression], he and other bankers were saving their banks at the expense of community — in "seeking individual salvation, we were contributing to collective ruin." ... Economists... sought to reassure the country that the market would correct itself automatically, and that the government's only responsibility was to balance the federal budget. Lower prices and interest rates, they said, would inevitably "lure 'natural new investments' by men who still had money and credit and whose revived activity would produce an upswing in the economy." Entrepreneurs would put their money into new technologies that would lead the way to prosperity. But Eccles wondered why anyone would invest when the economy was so severely disabled. Such investments, he reasoned, "take place in a climate of high prosperity, when the purchasing power of the masses increases their demands for a higher standard of living and enables them to purchase more than their bare wants. In the America of the thirties.... people hadn't enough purchasing power for even their barest needs."

Eccles knew Wall Street wanted a tight money supply and correspondingly high interest rates, but the Main Streets of America — the real economy — needed a loose money supply and low rates. Roosevelt agreed to support new legislation that would tip the scales toward Main Street. Eccles took over the Fed.


- Robert Reich

So isn't that grand: the rich help cause market crashes and recessions with their speculation and loose lending, then make recovery even harder by choking off credit to the middle class when it's critically needed (despite the government's best monetary policy efforts to lower borrowing rates and such). Then they skirt blame and say "natural investments" should spur growth even if commercial banks aren't lending (which is their whole purpose of existence). Even if interest rates are lower, so are costs and they're still making money aren't they? Most average Joes would be content with 5% during a recession, but not Wall Street.

More on the rich-poor gap

http://www.slate.com/id/2266025/entry/2266026/

Most of this stuff we've discussed already, but it's all in one convenient place. I'd like for any conservative out there to give me a reason why it's in a society's best interests for an individual to be able to amass tens of billions of dollars of personal fortune, when the median income is 0.0004% of that? And median US household net worth is even smaller than income, due to debt. Is that billionaire even creating jobs with the money? Not really, apart from landscapers and nannies. And they're not investing in new ventures and companies either, since that's too risky with too much SEC red tape. They're just trading in currency and commodity markets, which make them an easy buck but don't really contribute to long-term economic growth. 

I thought the attached image was funny. I know that a president doesn't control the economy, world events are constantly in flux, and sometimes their policies don't really kick in until they are out of office, but still. For the bottom 80% of US incomes since 1948, their income growth rates were over 50% smaller when a GOP was president vs. a Dem. For the top 20%, it's about the same for both parties, as one would expect. So much for liberals' taxation and regulation killing the economy. Those forces can be harmful, but apparently a GOP president correlates with a much worse outcome.

The Cold War right wing extremist roots of the Tea Party

Glen Beck and the Tea Party's right-wing extremist Cold War roots:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/10/18/101018fa_fact_wilentz

The Princeton professor author of this article thinks that if several Tea Baggers (how some of them have chosen to call themselves) win seats in Congress this fall, the GOP representation will be possibly the most right-wing in our history. People like Barry Goldwater were dismissed or even feared as dangerous wackos during the Cold War, but now similar views are well accepted in the TP. Mainstream conservatives like William Buckley cautioned that candidates like Goldwater would hurt their party. Recently Karl Rove insinuated something similar about TP Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell (Delaware), and the pro-TP backlash was so huge that Rove had to recant on the cable news circuit. When Karl Rove is the voice of moderation, I think the GOP has to realize that they've gone too far. And probably the establishment already has, since the RNC is also secretly hoping for the TP to fail so they can be top dog again. But how can they speak out against a movement that is galvanizing conservatives, raising money, and may win them back Congress? But they should consider the long-term repercussions of hitching their wagon to these wild horses.  

I find it ironic that Beck (the self-proclaimed historical brain behind the TP movement) espouses the libertarian views that government should stay out of our lives and the free market, and that gov. control leads to totalitarianism and fascism. Yet he is a devoted Mormon, which is one of the most socially invasive religions in history. Mormons can't watch certain movies, can't drink certain things, and must give up a % of their wages to the church (i.e. taxes). The church even tells members to rat out each other if they witness violations, like the Gestapo. So it's evil when a body of democratically elected officials and Constitutional law experts establishes things like due process, the EPA, and income tax, but it's fine when appointed church leaders (with no accountability, transparency, and checks/balances) do it?

For fans of "Freakonomics"

They now have a free podcast and website going for new topics to discuss:

http://freakonomicsradio.com/

Some of their controversial but data-driven assertions:

- Obesity probably won't kill you and doesn't cost society much (correlation doesn't equal causation)

- It's a good bet for soccer penalty takers to just kick the ball at the middle of the goal (game theory between goalie and striker)

- Then-candidate Obama was slow to denounce his former pastor Jeremiah Wright partly because of a cost-benefit quandary: tolerate his inflammatory comments, or admit to voters that he and his wife stopped regularly attending church after their kids were born. Obama wasn't turned off by Wright's comments because he wasn't in the congregation to hear them, but the campaign thought that the costs of publicly admitting he wasn't a regular church-goer (especially considering the ignorant attacks on his faith and American-ness) were greater than standing behind Wright, at least initially.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Blair Mountain: the biggest US battle you've never heard of

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain
http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.htm?programID=10-P13-00041&segmentID=3
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountaintop_removal_mining

When I heard the name "Battle of Blair Mountain" in West Virginia, I assumed it was some Civil War event, and in a sense it was, except that the combatants didn't wear uniforms. The year was 1921, during the industrial rise and massive profit-taking spree by America's super-rich prior to the Crash that I emailed about last time. The US labor force was struggling against the capitalists and management for fairness and rights. Coal miners in northern states had already formed unions, and southerners wanted to do the same. The US coal industry was incredibly exploitative and almost colonial in poor rural areas like WV. Coal company bosses literally ran towns, and hired professional strike breakers and private muscle to intimidate or suppress anyone suspected of standing up to them. At the time, most of WV's mines were unionized, but the southern part of the state was a stubborn holdout. In Mingo County in that area, martial law was declared, union organizers were jailed and deprived of due process, and even outside media was banned. In a show of solidarity, miners from nearby Logan County gathered what small arms they could find and marched towards Mingo to try to free their brothers.

The coal bosses got wind of this and asked the local sheriff's department and state police to stop the march. The Logan County Coal Operators Association (LCCOA) also hired mercenaries and fortified a high ground position with MACHINE GUNS along the route that the march would take (at the time, they had raised the largest private army in US history: 2,000 fighters). 13-15 thousand miners, armed with hunting rifles and untrained in warfare, marched towards that mortal danger because they were tired of being slaves in the land of the free. The battle raged for 5 days with over a million rounds fired, and was the largest civil insurrection in US history. Amazingly, only 30 died on the coal bosses' side and 50-100 on the miners' side, possibly due to their amateur training and heavy vegetation in the area. But President Harding ordered the US Army to intervene (on the coal bosses' side), and used MB-1 biplane BOMBERS to drop surplus WWI ordinance on the miners (gas and explosives). This was one of the rare occasions when the US government fired on its citizens, and maybe the first instance in history of aerial bombing of civilians (or at least non-uniformed soldiers). Obviously the coal bosses won and WV authorities imprisoned about 1,000 miners. It was a crushing blow to the United Mine Workers, and membership shriveled from 50 to 10 thousand in the coming years. Southern WV didn't fully unionize until 1935 under FDR, who also helped improve worker rights through his New Deal. The battle also served to galvanize workers and inform the public about abusive practices by the coal industry. Organizations like the AFL and CIO drew inspiration from the battle as they formed and grew.

And just because this happened almost a century ago doesn't mean the labor market is problem free now, as we all know. We probably believe that no company would dare to resort to these measures against disgruntled workers today, but it just blows my mind that they even thought they could then. Is this America? Those men hadn't committed any crimes, and were just walking in the forest with their hunting rifles. Sure they may have posed a threat to public safety considering the events in nearby Mingo County (where other civil rights abuses were taking place), but they were US citizens. What a stain on our history that the US government would be complicit and even participatory in their murders and deprivation of Constitutional rights. Today, greedy and negligent coal barons like Massey disabled safety monitoring systems and falsified documents at the Upper Big Branch Mine in WV. They put their workers in danger (and eventually killed some of them) just in the name of increased output. WV continues to be one of the poorest states with very shameful education and health statistics. Despite that, their politicians are usually ultra-pro-coal and well funded by them. Where is the trickle down of wealth that the free marketeers promised? In fact, WV's coal riches probably make the people poorer, just like the "curse of resources" in places like Nigeria and Sierra Leone. But America is hungry for abundant coal to as a seemingly cheap, easy way to power our electricity grid, so we turn a blind eye to the suffering of West Virginians and destruction of their land over the decades, and continue to side with the coal bosses.

What about the legacy of Blair Mountain? Leftist officials and academics have petitioned to make the battleground a protected US historic site. Finally in 2009, the National Parks Service did recognize it as an official Historic Place. This was especially important because in an almost ridiculously comical turn of events, modern coal companies that own the development rights to the Blair Mountain area want to destroy the battlefield as part of the largest proposed mountaintop removal coal project in US history. The coal bosses literally want to bury Blair Mountain. It wasn't enough that it was more or less stricken from the historical record and social consciousness (because labor rights are of course communistic and anti-American); now they want to destroy any physical trace of their atrocity. But under this NPS designation, Blair Mountain would be preserved for the benefit of Americans. There are even plans to turn it into a tourist and educational destination, despite its rural location. But like the original battle, the coal bosses won out again. A week after the NPS announcement, WV officials produced documents showing that now a majority of landowners in the area object to Blair Mountain becoming a historical site, so by law the NPS cannot recognize it. The conservation side fought back, and by their polling they think most local residents would support Blair Mountain becoming a park. The list of opposing parties that WV produced contained names of people that had been dead for decades. The case is still unresolved, but all the while the mining companies are getting ready to turn the area into a moonscape (see "before" and "after" photos attached of a similar mining project).

Both GOP and Dem politicians running for the open US Senate seat from WV this November support the coal industry and endorse the mining project that will bring WV a whopping 230 jobs. I bet the tax revenues will probably be meager as well due to so many corporate loopholes and write-offs. And even if the site does get preserved, who can see it? The mining industry has made the area totally unlivable with constant industrial noise, heavy equipment traffic congestion, and toxic waste release in the air and waterways. They're destroying the regional history, culture, and Appalachian way of life, and it's mostly all legal. I can understand why the US and WV governments would want to sweep Blair Mountain under the rug, but they would be hypocrites because we have acknowledged the evil of slavery, the crime of Japanese internment, and other black marks on our record. But when it comes to the hot-button issue of labor rights and corporate abuse (even corporate violence with government support), we can't go there, not even during these hard economic times where corporate abuse of worker and property rights are well known.

http://amsterdamnews.com/articles/2010/10/10/news/doc4cacd34797eae468575454.txt

Ironically, a bill to make it EASIER for banks to foreclose on borrowers just passed Congress when this news broke. Obama then vetoed it. After all the public support and patience the banks have received since 2008, how dare they. Maybe some of it wasn't malicious and just due to overwhelmed staff facing 10X more foreclosure case workload than usual, but negligence can be as harmful as greed and hate. How much more trampling of individual property rights will we tolerate? If just one citizen was improperly dispossessed of their home due to regulatory lapses, procedural errors, or outright crime, what does that say about the self-proclaimed greatest country in the world's history? And what about honest buyers who unknowingly purchased a home that was improperly foreclosed? What a can of worms. The housing market is holding back our economic recovery, and banks are already swamped with more foreclosures than they can process and price, so why cut corners to add more fuel to the fire? Were they under incentives to foreclose as many as possible, or keep up with some ludicrous pace? Foreclosures have huge socioeconomic costs on consumers and communities, and banks also lose money and man-hours on them. Why not work with borrowers as the Obama Admin. has tried to persuade them to, instead of break rules to hastily kick them to the curb? Banks' cash flows look better when borrowers are making their (hopefully reasonable) monthly payments. They get nothing if the borrower defaults and the property languishes for months. Or are they doing it as part of a major corporate land-grab and shake-down of consumers, just so they can resell distressed properties for pennies on the dollar to vulture speculators, or in some cases the investment branch of their own firm? Is this yet another method of funneling wealth from the indebted masses to the rich elite?

Friday, October 1, 2010

Where do our taxes go?

The left leaning Third Way think tank published an itemized breakdown of where a typical federal taxpayer's revenues go. The median US income was $34,140 in 2009, which required $5,400 in income tax (include FICA payroll tax). Of that amount, here is the tax breakdown according to their calc's:


Item Tax % of total
Soc Sec $1,041.00 19.278
Medicare $626.00 11.593
Medicaid $385.00 7.130
Debt interest $287.00 5.315
Iraq/Afghanistan $229.00 4.241
Military Personnel $193.00 3.574
Vet Benefits $75.00 1.389
Fed Highways $64.00 1.185
NIH $47.00 0.870
Foreign Aid $46.00 0.852
K-12 Low Income Student Aid $38.00 0.704
Retired Military $33.00 0.611
Pell Grants $30.00 0.556
NASA $28.00 0.519
IRS $18.00 0.333
EPA $12.00 0.222
FBI $11.00 0.204
Head Start $11.00 0.204
Pub Housing $11.00 0.204
Nat Parks $4.00 0.074
DEA $3.00 0.056
Amtrak $2.00 0.037
Smithsonian $1.00 0.019
Arts Funding $0.20 0.004
Compensation for Congress $0.20 0.004

Of course this list is not comprehensive, as the sum of all items adds up to $3,200 or 59% of total, so I guess the rest of our taxes went to thousands of other smaller programs and maybe the salaries of other federal workers. I just find it disturbing that interest on our deficit, NASA, and Amtrak consume so much of our taxes versus other needs. I know the military is expensive, and we spend more than most of the G20 combined. And for those critics who say we dispense too much foreign aid, I think 0.9% is nothing for the richest nation in history. Compare that to the 31% we spend to support the 39M or so elderly Americans today. 13% of our population is consuming 31% of our revenues, and many of those retired are plenty well off financially.

Speaking of being well off, maybe you have heard of this U of Chicago law professor (Todd Henderson) who blogged about how hard his life is even though his household makes over $250k/year (his wife is an oncologist). He's worried about Obama raising taxes on him, and claims that he's not "rich". Obviously his narrow mindedness has offended the blogosphere and media, when the median US household income is $45k and 10% of willing workers can't land a job. Plus Henderson's complaints don't hold water: he lives in a pricey neighborhood, works easy hours, sends his kids to fancy private schools, contributes heavily to his 401(k), and has a landscaper and nanny. I'm sure he spends on frivolous consumer goods and services too. So if he feels so "pinched for cash", how about eliminate some of those clearly non-essential expenses and live like a regular guy? Or just become a corporate lawyer to triple your pay but never see your family. He made spending choices to make life easier and more comfortable, but there's no free lunch. He is not entitled to all those luxuries. If you want more money, you have to spend less or work harder. But don't complain about getting reasonably taxed for being part of the richest 3% of households in America. Today, the rich still get to keep 75% of their income after taxes. That's hardly a shake-down.

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/110876/why-the-rich-dont-feel-rich

“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” - Warren Buffet

"In order to engage in warfare, one side has to fight back. There is no class warfare in the U.S. It ended a long time ago through surrender." - Noam Chomsky