Sunday, June 30, 2013

Brazil: where are their priorities?



http://sports.yahoo.com/photos/photo-finish-relive-the-weekend-in-sports-1372640894-slideshow/confederations-cup-photo--1751219419.html

http://www.cnn.com/2013/06/20/world/americas/opinion-brazil-simoes

Two-and-a-half years have passed, and [President Rousseff] is still popular among the poorest, but the recent protests were led by a different bunch: The traditional middle class. On the streets, well-educated people, from central, urban areas, shouted that they had been sold a lie [about their lives getting better].  

Inflation is once again a major concern, violent crime is on the rise, cases of corruption fill the press, healthcare is in a precarious state, infrastructure projects have not materialized and street traffic is depressingly worse than ever.


While TV showed the inaugurations of costly, lavish football stadiums, people felt their lives were getting worse by the day. After all, the World Cup will cost the nation some $15 billion, and the promised legacy in infrastructure is still nowhere to be seen.

- CNN

So they won a soccer tournament tonight, big deal (it has no real consequence except raising their FIFA ranking from their current #22, just ahead of Mali). They did wipe out Spain, whose squad is believed to be one of the greatest in history according to some. But it's just sport - what about jobs, infrastructure, accountability, and gov. services?

The match took place in Rio as crowds tried to march on the stadium but were blocked by riot police. You've probably heard that a combined million Brazilians have been protesting their government recently - first sparked by something so mundane as a planned bus fare hike (like how the Turkey protests started over a park closure, or the Tunisia protests starting over the frustrations of one small businessman). But these "minor complaints" are part of a larger theme of 2nd world governments reaping the rewards of increasing int'l prominence, but not passing much of it down to the people.

Brazil is part of the sexy BRICS economies, and barely felt the recession. The Economist projects a healthy 3-4% real GDP growth rate through 2017. Yet public opinion of Brazil's president and legislature are much lower now vs. 2003. Wealth inequality in Brazil is one of the worst in the world (worse than the US), by Gini and other metrics. 5-6% inflation is a problem and the Real is expected to lose value against the $ each of the next 4 years. The current and former presidents come from a leftist labor party that capitalized on the support of the poor to win. But it is the middle class that is key for Brazil to become a true global power, and it is the middle class that is currently really pissed off (same with Turkey, and the US - though we are too cowardly to protest).

Occupy was a manifestation of this, but all around the world people are rising up because they are tired of putting up with gov'ts that claim things are going great and they are making your life better, yet people are hurting more and more. From Greece to China to Brazil, citizens are fed up with corrupt leaders who have their priorities all backwards, and are in office just to enrich themselves and serve the elite.

We know what the Olympics did to Greece's economy (and China violated all sorts of civil rights to make their Games happen), and now we have Brazil proud to host the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics. They're building fancy billion-dollar stadiums, yet basic services, rule of law, and such are terribly lacking (a successful int'l sporting event needs those things too!). There were concerns about the 2010 South Africa World Cup partly because that host was also in BRICS, and crime/poverty is endemic in parts of SA. FIFA even planned to use Brazil as a backup host if conditions in SA were too poor for the Cup. But now it seems Brazil is in worse shape. Of course a big int'l event is a way for the host to show off to the world that they have arrived. They sweep their national ills under the rug for a month while foreign revelers cheer, drink, and spend money. The Olympics didn't make China stronger (and didn't really boost their global prestige IMO), and Brazil shouldn't expect any better. Honor your commitments to your people first, then worry about stupid ballgames. Same goes for the US... but "bread and circuses" are effective distractions so the masses forget how their leaders are abusing them.

-------

You probably heard about the criticisms of the BRA gov't and FIFA leading up to the World Cup, but here is a humorous/pathetic summary too:

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-oliver-fifa-2014-6
Like the IOC and NCAA, FIFA is another corrupt, egotistical, short-sighted "nonprofit" sport mafia that is only interested in its finances (often at the expense of all other parties) - maybe to a more pathological level than some for-profit corporations. It's not about "the good of the game" or the players/fans. The sporting events themselves are entertaining and almost universally beloved, but the governing bodies are just immoral leeches capitalizing on our passion/addiction for the sport. Maybe because of that, at some point it has to be justified to boycott.

Thursday, June 27, 2013

The Supreme Court's ruling on the Voting Rights Act

You've probably heard about this case. To me this is a terrible injustice. It's true that the nation has come a long way racially since the '60s, but the VRA Section 5 (requiring states "with a history of racial discrim." to get the OK from DOJ before making a voting law change) doesn't just protect against racial disenfranchisement, it is a check against all forms of disenfranchisement and vote-rigging, regardless of the voter (victims are still likely people of color and poor, but now they are being targeted because they tend to support Dems). IMO, the VRA should be applied to ALL states, not just ones with a "history of racial prejudice". But then it gets into the state's rights issue and all that mess.

Voting is the most sacred right of citizens of free societies. People in other nations risk death to vote because they believe in and trust the process (even when they shouldn't). Northern swing states exempt from the VRA Section 5 have passed or tried to pass horrible GOP-led voting change laws in places like PA and OH in 2012 (trying in vain to help Romney). Gerrymandering goes on in most of the nation, is one of the top threats to our political system IMO, and fortunately places like CA have tried to fight the trend with districts drawn by an independent commission. And contrary to what we might assume, the VRA Section 5 applies to non-Dixie states like CA, NY, MI, and AK. So it's not a giant conspiracy against the South. And if they pass reasonable law changes, then there's nothing to worry about, so why oppose the VRA?

Chief J. Roberts said that the VRA Section 5 is not necessary anymore. If so, does that mean the flagged states have learned to enact fair laws, and injustices do not occur? Take a look at the attached jpg. It's from the Jun 25 edition of Daily Show, but my video res was bad at the time and I can't make out the source (US Justice ). If we trust it, it shows that that the DOJ has objected to 74 voting law changes in these states since 2000. I am not sure how many changes were passed on the other hand, but clearly the law IS necessary and still needs to be enforced. Maybe it's a shame/pride issue that these states are tired of getting extra scrutiny as "recovering racists". But hey, parolees have that mark on their records forever. Again, if you write just laws, what do you have to fear from the Feds? And many of the flagged states are in the top 15 of the FBI's list of states with the most hate crimes per capita (AL, MI, AZ, SC). Interestingly, LA, GA, and MS are among the best on the hate crimes list - but that is likely a reporting issue (those states have like one intern working on it).

http://www.businessinsider.com/fbi-2011-hate-crime-statistics-2012-12#ixzz2EfwtOVBq


 
Gerrymandering has also made it likely that the GOP control many state legislatures. So they try to push through changes to help the GOP in federal elections. This is just like the business world: don't fight fair. The goal of elections is to get more votes than the opponent, right? Instead of putting in the work to make a better product and communicate/convince voters of that, they prefer to rig the game so that they win regardless of the quality of their product. They know America is changing demographically (and some may argue politically), and it is getting nearly impossible for the GOP to control the Senate or WH (or even the House if districts were drawn rationally). So instead of trying to capitalize on the winds of change, they are typically rejecting it. How can we win with just the old, white, wealthy (or ignorant), Christian, angry vote? Make it harder for Dem supporters to vote. We already have some of the most inconvenient voting practices in the free world. It's a miracle that turnouts are so high. Now some states want to make it even harder, by implementing some of the strictest voter ID laws in the world. On paper those laws sound reasonable, but in practice they serve to confuse, intimidate, and target specific populations. Plus those laws address a nonexistent issue. Voting fraud DOES NOT HAPPEN to a material degree, and in fact is rarer than a 4-leaf clover (even some Republicans say this). Why invest all this time and effort fighting an imaginary problem? Ironically, there were 10 documented cases of in-person voter fraud since 2000, so that makes the improper voting law problem 7X bigger! Go America!

http://www.businessinsider.com/steve-schmidt-voter-fraud-doesnt-exist-2012-11
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/08/person-voter-fraud-it-doesnt-exist-we-must-stamp-it-out-anyway

From Wiki:


Advancement Project in 2012 put together a map showing all voter ID laws and restrictions in all 50 states.
State-level voter ID laws fall in one of the following categories:[24]
Strict photo ID (voters must show photo ID at polling place or follow-up with election officials soon after the election if they fail to provide a photo ID when voting): Georgia, Indiana, Kansas and Tennessee. In addition, Mississippi, Texas and South Carolina have strict photo ID laws that must receive, but have not received, approval from the U.S. Justice Department; pending such approval, they all require non-photo ID, except for Mississippi which has no other voter ID law on the books. Pennsylvania & Wisconsin have had their photo ID laws restricted by the U.S. court system, and they will not be in effect for the 2012 election cycle.
Photo ID or alternative (voters at polling place must either show photo ID or meet another state-specific requirements, such as answering personal questions correctly or being vouched for by another voter or poll worker(s) who have a voter ID): Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, South Dakota and New Hampshire.
Non-photo ID (state-specific list of acceptable forms of polling place ID, including a non-photo form): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Utah, Virginia and Washington. Arizona, Ohio and Virginia also have strict, after election follow-up rules for voters that fail to provide the required voter ID when voting at a polling place. Alabama has a newer photo ID law that is scheduled to take effect in 2014, if it gets pre-approval from the U.S. Justice Department.
No ID required at polling place: all other states not noted above.

Saturday, June 22, 2013

Scientific studies suggest money makes you an a-hole

First, they conducted a simple observation of pedestrian and driver behavior at an intersection. They found that 90% of drivers do yield for pedestrians (as law and safety demands), but of those who blew through, a significantly higher % of those vehicles were classified as "luxury". Also luxury cars cut off other drivers at a higher rate. A lot of things could be potentially wrong with such a study, but the result seems logical - spending a lot on a car with attached marketing messages like: you have arrived, you are Mr. Badass, you deserve it, you're better - may motivate the driver to feel that he/she (mostly he probably) doesn't have to stop for "peasants" and is entitled to get to the destination unhindered. Or maybe their social environment is very status conscious and competitive, so driving is also an opportunity to demonstrate their perceived superiority, or they may feel the need to drive like a jerk to fit the mold of success (even if they actually want to drive more politely). Of course this doesn't apply to all luxury drivers, and there are plenty of jerks driving clunkers.

You know how politicians take candy from babies? Rich people do too, literally. Controlling for various other attributes, they had participants fill out a phony form in a private room. There was a small jar of candy on the table, which they were told was for kids for the next study later in the day, but they could have some if they wanted. Participants labeled as "rich" (maybe above some cutoff for self-identified household income, reference their PNAS paper for details) took 2X more candy than non-rich. Even though they were permitted to, typical conscientious thinking might be: I can buy my own candy later, the kids will enjoy it more, I don't want to look like a pig, etc. to motivate them to refrain. But maybe rich people are used to getting better service and favors from others (with less regard for sharing & limits), so they are conditioned to take when offered without considering others.

You have probably heard about studies that show CEOs are more likely to cheat on games (even with no rewards) by self-reporting higher scores (with no outside verification). The same applies to rich people. In a computer-simulated die toss game, the richer participants in their study were more likely to cheat and report scores that were mathematically possible, but actually impossible due to the hidden logic of the sim. The narrative seems reasonable: rich people are competitive and may lie to increase their chances of winning if they can get away with it. Their personal payoffs for winning unethically outweigh the possible consequences of getting caught, and that calculus may not apply as much to the sub-rich, where consequences dominate (jail, getting fired, etc.).

Lastly, what happens when non-rich people "feel rich" and vice versa? The researchers had people play a rigged game of Monopoly, where a randomly decided player (of various personal wealth levels) got to be Goldman Sachs (more starting $, more die rolls, got to have the car playing piece). It was about mathematically impossible to lose from that position. During the game, the Goldman player tended to exhibit more bossy, dominant behaviors. When asked how they felt about the game results, the Goldman player was more likely to take personal credit for their success rather than acknowledge their randomly-assigned advantages. We know that manifests itself in real life, as from our previous discussions, the rich may feel OK with tax evasion because they feel they already paid enough, and they deserve to keep more of it due to their cunning/superiority. Conversely in the Monopoly game, those in the position of the disadvantaged player tended to exhibit more compassionate, gracious behavior (despite their actual social class).

Extrapolating these results out to the real world, I suppose we shouldn't be surprised when the most rich and powerful among us behave badly and are caught in greed/ethics scandals. And for the rich who behave well and can still be generous to others (like Buffet), they have particularly impressive discipline and caring, especially considering the temptations, lack of accountability, and pernicious culture of their elite social class. I doubt many rich people read the PNAS journal, but the authors caught hell after their paper was published. I think it's pretty hard to be totally uncaring (sociopathic), so deep down even the biggest rich jerks probably realize they are doing wrong, but as I said their incentive structure compels them to knowingly do wrong. They don't like being reminded they are being bad, so of course they lash out or make excuses. And it's no help that our tax-legal system heavily favors the rich and is chock full of loopholes. They use it as a cop out. My business ethics prof said something like, "Legal does not guarantee ethical. If you measure your actions by the law alone, you're in trouble."

But maybe all this stems from our society's value system. Money is the literal currency and also social currency for status (which gives you access to pretty spouses, creature comforts, fame, and other perks). We don't celebrate the kindest or meekest or most generous among us. We celebrate the richest, biggest jerks who take what they want and don't care about anyone else. In fact we suck up to, idealize, and emulate them - even post Recession. I am fairly sure such phenomena would not occur in cultures where materialism, egotism, and such are not as valued, like Amazonian tribes or Tibet before China's ethnic cleansing. This comes back to the "selfish gene" argument. The animal side of us needs to be selfish and dominant to propagate our genes. But we are social beings too; if we are too sociopathic, then we will alienate ourselves, which may imperil our progeny. So kindness in a sense is a form of selfishness, but I think too much kindness is a better problem to have than too much greed.

The rich are just doing what their culture enables and compels them to do. Maybe the fault lies with the 99%. The rich are always outnumbered. Starving, abused peasants burned and hung the rich when they went too far in Europe and Cuba. We just take it in America, because our goal is not to have a more just society of "liberty, equality, fraternity", but to join the ranks of the rich one day and lord over the 99%. So that is the problem. We don't fight inequality and abuse because we are totally fine with such an unjust system, as long as we eventually get to the top. But obviously that is a pipe dream for the vast majority of us. But that is the evil genius of the system, it traps us in our own unrealistic ambitions and hopes. Maybe the "new" American Dream (where the goal is to be the man, not just middle class) is actually bondage rather than emancipation. It tells us if we commit ourselves 100% to our careers (work almost to death), comfort, fun, wealth, status, and all that can be ours. But that won't happen for everyone, even if all they do is work. And all that effort in vain actually serves to make the execs and investors (who have already made it) richer. Talk about a scam.

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I always wonder what is really being measured in these studies.  Is the car really correlated to wealth or spending?  If i CAN buy a luxury car but don't am i less likely to be an A-hole? 
And who cheats at games with no reward or really cheat at all?

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Re: luxury cars, of course not all purchasers are actually rich, and as you said, plenty of rich don't feel the need to buy them. It's maybe a self-selection phenomenon. The ones who drive them are more likely bought into the image message, and therefore may be predisposed to act like a "typical BMW driver."
Re: cheating, we've all used cheat codes in video games right? No actual reward there, but it's an easy way to progress in the game and enjoy the winning feeling. I suppose if there are no consequences (the comp won't refuse to play with you next time), why not? The people who don't cheat may feel that cheating only hurts them, so they're rather face the challenges and push themselves to master the game and win properly.

Sorry I forgot to add in the OP, by no means am I saying that armed revolt is the only way to make things better. We just have to hold bad behavior to account, and change the incentive calculus. We have to make it so costly to behave badly that even jerks will have no choice but be civilized (whether insider trading or not yielding for pedestrians). Criminal penalties may be a start, but the rich control the legal-judicial process. We could also stop idolizing rich jerks, and instead celebrate the ones who "do it right". Here's a crazy idea: why don't we idolize the folks in the Apple commercial instead of the folks that run Apple? And please let's stop emulating Kardashian, Zuck, etc. And when we see bad behavior on the streets (by rich or otherwise), we should call them out on it. Maybe they are beyond reproach, but at least others will take notice that such conduct is detrimental and won't just be blanket condoned. Racism, sexism, xenophobia, and homophobia used to be tolerated (and even encouraged) in US society. But gradually we used education and alternative role models to shame those ideas to the margins and private thoughts. We can do the same for "richism" too, but it's a bigger challenge because it's more pervasive. But we have little choice. Imagine if our society was actually 99% rich instead? What a horrible place to live!

Even worse... crazy rich Asians!!! http://www.amazon.com/Crazy-Rich-Asians-Kevin-Kwan/dp/0385536976

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

George Packer on the socioeconomic contradictions of Silicon Valley

"The Valley is a little bit at risk of moving in the direction that Wall Street went in... Losing sight of the real purpose of technology, just as Wall Street lost sight of the real purpose of finance. And instead looking at that little narrow way to a big payoff. But that can be very short-term and not particularly productive."
- G Packer

When financiers say that they’re doing God’s work by providing cheap credit, and oilmen claim to be patriots who are making the country energy-independent, no one takes them too seriously—it’s a given that their motivation is profit. But when technology entrepreneurs describe their lofty goals there’s no smirk or wink. “Many see their social responsibility fulfilled by their businesses, not by social or political action,” one young entrepreneur said of his colleagues. “It’s remarkably convenient that they can achieve all their goals just by doing their start-up.” He added, “They actually think that Facebook is going to be the panacea for many of the world’s problems. It isn’t cynicism—it’s arrogance and ignorance.”
- G Packer, New Yorker

Joshua Cohen, a Stanford political philosopher who also edits Boston Review, described a conversation he had with John Hennessy, the president of Stanford, who has extensive financial and professional ties to Silicon Valley. “He was talking about the incompetent people who are in government,” Cohen recalled. “I said, ‘If you think they’re so incompetent, why don’t you include in a speech you’re making some urging of Stanford students to go into government?’ He thought this was a ridiculous idea.”
- G Packer, New Yorker

In New Yorker style, a very long but detailed and thoughtful presentation of Packer's argument that the "Siliconization" of the US economy/culture is not necessarily good for everyone. The interview on his book The Unwinding is interesting too. I was surprised that he didn't get more rebuttal call-ins, since KQED is a Bay Area station after all.

I am too tired to properly summarize the story, but basically Packer is saying that the features that make Si. Valley great are also leading to some negative social effects. Innovation requires boldness, unorthodox thinking, and almost a "F it" attitude about consequences. Si. Valley embodies that paradox of socialist-Utopian desire to make the world more connected and better vs. the cutthroat, libertarian pursuit of riches unfettered by any regs or CSR (VC culture, Foxconn, avoiding taxes, FB IPO scam, you name it).

You can't be great and rise above the pack by playing it safe and by the rules. But that's the big difference between the Great Expansion of the '50s and '60s (blossoming of the US middle class), and the Great Divergence of today (the widening wealth gap and shrinking middle class). In the past, a WASP with a HS education and decent intellect/work ethic could have a job for as long as he wanted it, and earn enough to be middle class, provide for his nuclear family, retire in comfort, and set his kids on a path for the upper middle class. That hasn't happened too often in human history. But that was probably an outlier era, as Reaganomics/globalization put an end to that.

For Gen X and the Millennials, we get the sense that only schmucks and working stiffs believe in that old system of playing by the rules, working hard, and making a decent living. Now it's all about getting that mad loot ASAP, and stepping on whatever is in our path. Packer uses the example of Jay-Z to describe this attitude: he came from nothing and with little hope of achieving the American Dream. So he unabashedly sold drugs to finance his music career, and he used his music riches to build a corporate empire. Of course he needed a lot of hard work and luck too, but Jay-Z "skipped the line" to the upper crust. In interviews, he is surprised that more people don't hate him. But instead, we cheer for him, because his story makes us believe that we can be him too. He is both hero and villain, and 100% modern American. So for the rest of us who aren't blessed with entertainment, athletic, or drug-selling skills, basically we have to find a way to succeed in finance, tech, or medicine... or be just another chump.

But getting back to the Si. Valley paradox, it should be telling that Gates didn't engage in philanthropy until he was the richest man on the planet, and Zuck didn't either until "The Social Network" came out and his company went public (but to his credit, Zuck has now become one of the most socially-conscious CEOs in the Valley). For tech guys who are obsessed with efficiency and creative problem solving, it's awful convenient to believe that you are saving the world while you're getting rich and helping yourself. But we know what the order of priorities is.  Though if Si. Valley was so public serving, then why are some of the most economically depressed and violent zones in the Western US (Richmond, Oakland, East PA) located just short drives from the Google and Apple HQs? Their geniuses can figure out how to put the Internet on eyeglasses and revolutionize what a mobile phone is, but they can't reduce crime and poverty in the Bay Area?

Let's be honest, tech companies make the world better for rich people - they are invested in solving rich people problems (and they do it really well), because obviously there is a market for that. There is nothing inherently wrong with that - the business of America is business. But then don't act so superior. Remember those older Apple commercials showing images of Gandhi and MLK with the slogan "Think Different"?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpzvwkR1RYU

Despite their marketing intentions, such a commercial is basically comparing a for-profit company to heroes who devoted their lives to fight injustice, and died poor. That is frankly outrageous. As Packer said, the hypocrisy is evident in Apple's calls for immigration reform, so they can get more visas to hire cheaper Asian engineers. They say they can't find enough qualified candidates domestically, yet their tax-evasion tactics have served to starve our public education. Don't complain about the quality of workers here when you aren't investing in them. And of course it's not just Apple.

----------

The buses—whose schedules are withheld from the public—have become a vivid emblem of the tech boom’s stratifying effect in the Bay Area. Rebecca Solnit, who has lived in San Francisco for thirty years, recently wrote in The London Review of Books, “Sometimes the Google Bus just seems like one face of Janus-headed capitalism; it contains the people too valuable even to use public transport or drive themselves. Right by the Google bus stop on Cesar Chavez Street immigrant men from Latin America stand waiting for employers in the building trade to scoop them up, or to be arrested and deported by the government.”

One question for technology boosters—maybe the crucial one—is why, during the decades of the personal computer and the Internet, the American economy has grown so slowly, average wages have stagnated, the middle class has been hollowed out, and inequality, has surged. Why has a revolution that is supposed to be as historically important as the industrial revolution coincided with a period of broader economic decline?

I honestly despise living [in the Valley], in many ways. I detest the "Silicon Valley Masters of the Universe" narrative and all the fuckers in BMWs who tailgate me on my way to the grocery store. I hate the fact that people around here go on and on about "innovation" yet spend their lives on yet-another-bullshit-useless-copycat-web-startup, instead of actually working on solving real, hard problems (many of which, as you point out, A, can't really be solved with software, or even hardware). I hate the fact that said bullshit web startup can get millions of dollars in funding with comparatively little effort, while people working on actual hard problems have to beg or fight tooth & nail for fractions of that amount from governments or foundations. I hate the cognitive dissonance of the inequality experienced by the line cooks, baristas, waiters, and janitors who serve all of the self-important pricks around here; some of them have even been forced into homelessness, as reported on Bill Moyers' show not long ago.

The Valley desperately needs this kind of takedown, repeatedly. Bring it on.

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This stuff is so spot-on and poignant that I have to stop thinking about it or I'm going to start destroying work equipment in rebellion. But I think the Millennials are in general more conscientious, so I hope enough of them will see things for what they are and try to fix them. Of course some will become selfish pricks like their parents, but I have hope. It's great to see that fast riches are not a major priority for a lot of young people (despite their possibly spoiled upbringings). They want to be happy, better themselves, and help others - which we need very desperately today.

The FB thread brought up a good point - since the PC/internet revolution, why hasn't the average worker gotten richer? If anything they have gotten poorer due to job insecurity and rising prices as you said. The only sector that has consistently profited is the 1% and corporations (or those who had the disposable income to invest prudently). So the promise of tech making our lives better/easier may be anecdotally and superficially true, but actually empty. As you also said, tech gets co-opted by business interests anyway, so the "good potential" is often diminished. 

I wonder if the Masters of the Universe were born during a previous era, what would they be doing? Guys like Jobs, Zuck, Gates... would they have been as great as Edison or Ford, or at best a middle-manager chump? Clearly Zuck and Jobs don't have what it takes to be anything but the boss. But people change with the environment, and maybe they would be a lot different without such great opportunities available to them (especially as a Jew and a half-Lebanese orphan). 

Friday, June 14, 2013

How CNN, social media, and Iranian politics ruined 2 Nedas... and no one in cyberspace cares

Iran is about to go to the polls again, and this time Ahmadinejad definitely can't win (unless they change the laws like Putin). But if you remember back in 2009, Ahmad. was declared the winner despite suspicious polling conditions. That sparked the "Green Revolution" where reform-minded Iranians (many students and young people) risked their lives to take to the streets and demand a fair election. The gov't cracked down on them, and dozens died. The most famous protester death was of Neda Agha-Soltan (below, graphic video), who became a symbol of resistance, and maybe even a hero martyr. She bears the inglorious title of most viewed death on YouTube. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76W-0GVjNEc&bpctr=1371270949

Social media was often an asset during the Arab Spring (and Persian Green Revolution), but in this case it went wrong. After Neda's death, interested parties went online and found the Facebook page of a Neda Soltani (an English lit student in Iran with a similar sounding name, who had not participated in the protests and was very much alive). They mistakenly identified her as the victim, disseminated her photo, and soon it was on major media outlets like CNN. She and her family were getting sympathy messages and vows that her death would inspire regime change. There was no journalistic process or due diligence - they just ran with the narrative. And wrong info goes viral just as quickly as correct info.

Of course Neda #2 tried to set the record straight by posting FB updates and contacting CNN that they were displaying the wrong photo (CNN continued to show the erroneous photo and never issued an apology). Eventually this story got to the leaders of the Islamic Republic and the Iranian Opposition, and both lashed out at Neda #2. The regime claimed that she was a phony and agitator who faked her death to hurt the gov't, and the opposition called her a "whore" for daring to tell them they messed up, thereby threatening the perfect Neda Jean D'Arc martyr story that they were using as a rallying cry. People believe what they want to believe, and get mad when you show them evidence to the contrary. And somewhere in all this mess, an actual Neda #1 was dead, with grieving loved ones seeing the wrong girl's face displayed on protest signs and TV shows 24-7.

So Neda #2 was getting it on both sides, and even received death threats. The gov'ts claims against her could have resulted in prison/torture/death, so she decided to leave her life and flee abroad as an exile. She currently lives in Europe, and has become a political activist because of her ordeal.
Like the NSA scandal, I think examples like this (albeit rare) demonstrate that technology advances faster than we simpleton humans can learn to use it responsibly. Just because we are enabled to do a thing doesn't mean we should. In general, social media is probably low-harm, low-risk, and may even do great good here and there. Same with secret spying I suppose. But how many destroyed lives do we just "tolerate" in order to enjoy unfettered, unaccountable use of these technological wonders? Tech moves at blazing speed because a lot of money is at stake (same with traditional media and breaking the big story). For the record, CNN was wrong about which Lanza shot up the school and the Supreme Court verdict on Obamacare too.

But what voice of restraint will help us take a deep breath and apply the brakes when needed? Who is fact-checking? There just isn't enough time, and once the snowball starts rolling and getting bigger, it's really hard to counter. So what can be done? Who gets punished when their irresponsible social media use results in innocents harmed? Especially since cyberspace is "borderless", what set of norms and policies can we all agree to? I'm not saying we should abandon these tools just because we haven't worked out the rules yet. But clearly we are driving without a license here. And it's not just Neda, think of the kids who have suffered depression and even killed themselves from online bullying, not to mention all the affairs/divorces, sexual predators, scams, propaganda/hate speech, fraud, hacking, you name it. I don't mean to be an anti-tech luddite here, and I freely admit I dislike FB/Twitter and have/will never use them (because I don't see a need in my life). But like with drugs and food, we have to (in theory) rigorously test their safety BEFORE we put them in our bodies. Somehow we accept a priori that tech is infallible and altruistic, and approach it more recklessly/trustingly. We are also more dismissive when consequences like Neda are exposed (again, because it conflicts with our preconceived beliefs), partly because blame is more diffuse and opaque than with drugs or food. The titans of tech like Biz Stone, Jobs, and Zuck really believe that their products are saving the world, like penicillin and the printing press before them. But even medicine can kill if misused. Let's try to be a little more grounded and conscientious, and maybe future Nedas can be avoided.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Snowden's interview with the Guardian on PRISM

Here is the transcript of the leaker (Snowden) interview with Greenwald: http://www.policymic.com/articles/47355/edward-snowden-interview-transcript-full-text-read-the-guardian-s-entire-interview-with-the-man-who-leaked-prism/612597

This quote from Snowden was most salient to me:

"Because even if you're not doing anything wrong you're being watched and recorded. And the storage capability of these systems increases every year consistently by orders of magnitude to where it's getting to the point where you don't have to have done anything wrong. You simply have to eventually fall under suspicion from somebody even by a wrong call. And then they can use this system to go back in time and scrutinize every decision you've ever made, every friend you've ever discussed something with. And attack you on that basis to sort to derive suspicion from an innocent life and paint anyone in the context of a wrongdoer."

In this context, it's very much a civil rights issue. Contrary to the gov't claims, Snowden says that the NSA-CIA is definitely snooping on domestic traffic and US citizens, not just foreigners suspected of terrorism by court order. But what if in the future the gov't focuses on other/more crimes? Contrary to our 1st Amend. right to free association, what if by accident you are at the wrong place at the wrong time or mistaken for a suspect (i.e. Ted Kennedy on the no-fly list)? Then the gov't has access to all your past telco and online history, and through the lens of presumed suspicion, may be able to use that data out of context to build a narrative that paints you in a very negative light. Because as we all know, if we cherry-pick various online actions from anyone, we can make a case that person X holds extreme beliefs, is mentally unstable, and could be a danger to the nation (think McCarthy meets Big Data). And the drone program makes it even more disturbing. Supposedly no US citizen can be secretly sentenced to death on US soil. But what if we travel overseas, and we are mis-identified as a terror plotter? Whoops, our bad! What impartial party is checking the data and findings before the final call? The investigator/prosecutor can't be an unbiased auditor too. And of course the suspect doesn't get to present his/her side of the case until it's too late. Heck even with our developed legal system, we erroneously incriminate, incarcerate, or even kill innocent Americans each year. So I have real concerns about judging people in secret using only "hearsay" online data.

We know gov'ts have agendas and may unfairly target certain people/groups (i.e. IRS scandal that we discussed). Therefore how can we trust them to manage these secret, sensitive, expansive data tools responsibly and ethically, with no one to play Devil's Advocate and defend those under suspicion (even people that "seem guilty")? I work in data analysis, and mistakes/wrong conclusions happen ALL THE TIME among pretty smart people. Humans want to confirm their own beliefs, and will massage/filter data and their own reasoning to get there. Like the problems in scientific research, to be truly rigorous you should use data to find all the ways your theory could be wrong, not the other way around. Databases are not perfect either, even Google's. What if a digit is switched here and there (i.e. Rogoff's "coding errors"), showing that you regularly call Pakistan instead of Paris? You can't perform QC on every data point of material, and a program of PRISM's scale is probably producing terabytes of data every day.

Frankly all these concerns can also be applied to the tech-telco companies that are the custodians of our data, and we have no choice but trust them (that is another debate for another day). Though at least with those firms, we do have channels for legal redress if they wrong us (even though it's very hard to subpoena evidence and beat their crack legal teams). Companies have messed up, apologized, and changed their practices (Google pulling out of Mainland China, Facebook terms of use, etc.). With orgs like the NSA and CIA, there is no oversight and redress, despite claims of "Congressional monitoring." The spooks show Congress only what they want them to see.

How technology is affecting the American Dream

We talked about most of this already but it's a good take on the issue: http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/01/after-your-job-is-gone/

Also another take on the elites vs. rest idea (even Jay-Z, Obama, and Oprah are not spared!) - the author Packer was on Real Time tonight: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/books/the-unwinding-by-george-packer.html?pagewanted=all

An aside: L is right that Maher is an idiot and a psycho when it comes to security issues and Islam-bashing. He rightly trashes the 2nd Amend. yet proudly owns guns because "the other crazies are armed". He claims to be a true Libertarian, but supports all sorts of liberty-reducing actions that ostensibly prevent terrorism. It's funny... self-respect and humility often make us better people. But self-preservation and self-love make us pricks. No one wants or needs to die, but the world doesn't need us either.

I guess America's Great Society of the '60s and '90s socialism in Europe were the exception and not the rule. As the author said, most of the modern world resembles the pre-French Revolution "nobles and serfs" model. But it's sad because our generation in the US was brought up to believe that the Great Society was our birthright and if anything, we would make it even better in our lifetimes. Of course things weren't all rosy in the past (bigotry, ignorance, Cold War, etc.), but it's amazing that America of that time period had low unemployment, low wealth inequality, ample gov't services, and low deficits.

Now the opposite is true, though our employment situation is much better than Europe's... and their society may be unraveling faster than ours.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21578386-euro-zone-desperately-need-boost-no-news-bad-news-sleepwalkers

But that is a little deceiving, because while US unemployment is down to like 7.5% now (much higher for young people though), the quality and security of most American jobs are not great, the social safety net is about depleted, and many are not counted as unemployed because they have taken the disability route instead (as we've discussed), or have just become the "permanent, uncounted, unhirables".

The change coincides with the rise of Si Valley, hyper-finance, and globalization. We can't be sure what caused what, but similar things happened during the Guilded Age, fueled by the tech bubble of the time - railroad, electricity, telco, etc. that Wall St. ate up. I guess disruptive tech always creates new winners and losers, but usually doesn't rewrite the labor map. Our new tech industry seems more extreme: highly paid jobs with specialized skills that are not accessible to the mainstream, emphasis on quick ROI rather than long term sustainable growth, and "virtual" products that create a ton of wealth for some but not many new jobs (or in fact replace old jobs). That could be called "progress", but the effects appear to be socially unjust too.

 Also here is a great interview on the issue with Moyers and Richard Wolff:

http://billmoyers.com/segment/richard-wolff-on-fighting-for-economic-justice-and-fair-wages/

Friday, June 7, 2013

Guarding and Post break story of the NSA's PRISM domestic spying

We know that some quasi-legal, mostly-secret spying programs were launched post-9/11 by the Bushies, and were continued/reauthorized by Obama. The Senate Intel. Cmte. has sent a letter to AG Holder expressing concern for the magnitude of domestic surveillance that our intel. infrastructure wants legal authority to conduct. They think that there is a major gulf between what Americans think the gov't is entitled to do, and what the gov't actually interprets their authority to allow.

The FISA (Foreign Intel. Surveil. Act) was recently reauthorized and grants the gov't the power to monitor int'l and non-American comm. But recently the Guardian and WP broke the story that the NSA has had a program called PRISM since 2007 that would basically grant them direct access to the data on the servers of major internet comm. companies like Microsoft, Skype, Google, Yahoo, and most recently Apple - for the purpose of domestic spying that FISA doesn't allow (they were tired of FISA's legal red tape too). And the program was conducted with basically zero oversight. This is all described in a PowerPoint training deck that was leaked (BTW the NSA makes really crappy slides). So far the NSA has not denied the legitimacy of that source.

The Director of Nat. Intel., James Clapper, has also not denied the existence of PRISM (and its $200M/year budget). In line with the Obama admin's "war on whistle-blowers", he lashed out that leaking the story would harm national security. Right, like how Jane Fonda helped the Viet Cong. By Clapper's own words, secret surveillance has foiled one (= 1, uno) domestic terror plot on record since the program started (target unknown, potential losses averted unknown). Democrats on the Senate Intel. Cmte. say they have no evidence that surveil. stopped any plots. So the benefit of the program is 0-1 plots stopped over 12 years. I don't think exposing the program is going to matter at all, except maybe compromise their surveil. budgets and autonomy. Also, what terrorist worth his weight in salt doesn't already know to "stay off their airwaves"?

Interestingly, the tech companies issued statements saying that they have no knowledge of PRISM, and do not give the gov't a backdoor to their servers. So either they are lying and actively colluded with the gov't, or the gov't broke a ton of laws and hacked into those companies totally discreetly (eat your heart out, China). I have no data to back this up, but my suspicion is the cyber security folks at those prestigious companies are a lot better than the hackers at the NSA. So the likelihood that Google would get caught with their pants down is low. But maybe those were the terms of the agreement: they would let the gov't snoop, but in return they get full denial and release of liability, so their users don't revolt and sue.

Another revelation is that the gov't got access to the "metadata" on Verizon's telco network. So they weren't actually eavesdropping without a warrant on calls, but instead knew which #s were talking to each other, when the calls were made, and what was the closest cell tower. Tracking and call patterns in other words. While that was probably clever by "Zero Dark Thirty" standards, I am not sure if it is legal to do it indiscriminately without probable cause.

This leak comes at a horrible time for Obama, who is about to sit down with Chinese leaders to chastise them for hacking US companies (we previously blogged about this). It kind of undermines his credibility and moral high ground when our gov't is caught hacking its own people and companies too.

What I don't understand is why Greenwald was permitted to publish these articles. I saw "Bourne"... isn't he supposed to get whacked in a London train station?

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He was on DN this morning.  Amy Goodman asked him, 'Are you concerned that you will be attacked for publishing such things?'  His response was basically, 'I'm emboldened by the attacks.  Let them attack me.'  Basically, he can't be silenced.  What are they going to do?  Out him?  Um, too late.  If i was boarding a plane and saw GG and Jeremy Scahill boarding, I would take a different plane....those two will very soon NOT be seen on MSM, is my guess.  GG will never be on Bill Maher after his calling Maher out for being an Islamophobe(and, he is).   These two are the heroes of our time.  Oh, add Bradley Manning and you got the makings of a superhero cartoon!

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Yeah the Manning case is interesting. He has already pleaded guilty to some major crimes, but the gov't wants to convict him for "aiding the enemy" (presumably his leaks helped Al Qaeda? Impossible to prove unless we have a smoking gun - which we don't). And they won't even accept all his prison time up to this point as time served, to reduce his remaining sentence (not to mention the torture).

But I think what makes him ineligible for hero status is his indiscriminate data dump to Wikileaks. At least with the Pentagon Papers, Ellsberg "edited" them and only leaked snippets of the docs that would tell the story with minimal exposure of gov't sources/processes (apart from the guilty parties). In Manning's case, he didn't even know all the stuff he was leaking, and just trusted Wikileaks to decide what was fit to print. I am glad that he exposed some horrible war crimes from Iraq that the gov't was trying to bury. But I think he also set back our peaceful State Dept. diplomatic efforts in other parts of the world. Clearly people like Rummy and Cheney have hurt this nation a lot worse than Manning ever could.

http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201306030900




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I don't know if it helps the moral high ground but the verizon thing was signed by a judge.
I just have a hard time understanding who, anywhere in the us, thinks this should be an ok thing to do.  Who thinks it makes sense to have a secret court issue secret orders unreviewable and unchallengeable by those it affects?  And it always begs the question what are they doing we DON'T know about?

Extra embarrassing with a nominally dem president in charge.


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Yeah, though a judge also approved Bush's harsh interrogation and rendition policies too. Heck a judge ruled that Bush won the election. :)

As you said, lord knows WTF is going on that we don't know about. Makes those conspiracy guys a little more credible at times. It was embarrassing to see Obama in Si Valley today defending the programs like a stooge. Same argument with the drone kills: TRUST us that we are making these decisions carefully (in secret) and we are protecting you from the bad men. Either Obama doesn't truly believe that and is just delivering lines that will please the defense establishment (which makes him a coward, appeaser, and poor leader), or he really believes it (which makes him dumber and less moral that I previously gave him credit for). Nixon would have loved the 21st Century.

M sent me this which was thought-provoking: http://m.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/11/just-asking/306288/?mrefid=twitter

Thanks, I haven't seen this before. I think the author has a point. 9/11 was a freaking OUTLIER. Yes the stakes are higher now with WMDs and the borderless global world, but even an event as horrific as 9/11 was not a society-ender (we'll it was... for Iraq). "Sacrifices for freedom" are often much smaller than that, and would be even smaller if our brash and unjust foreign and economic policies didn't piss off so many. Even today, Obama said "We can't have 100% security and 100% freedom." It is a false choice as many have said (http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201306070900). But we're NEVER going to have 100% security, even if we have 0% freedom. Random violence and tragic accidents are part of the human condition, even in the Utopia of Scandinavia (Brevik shooting, car accidents with reindeer, suicides inspired by 6 months of darkness). Americans are hysterical and selfish, and they don't want to fear that one day they may be the victim of a crazy bomber. So they endorse all these stupid policies to just "feel safer". The soccer mom philosophy of "I'll do anything to protect my kids", even if that means ironically supporting policies that put many other no-less-worthy people's kids in danger. And we wonder why they hate us.

Strangely this line of thinking doesn't apply to the gun debate, where the opposite psychology reigns: freedom is the precious thing worth dying for (or letting children die for), where thousands more brown-skinned youth have to be sacrificed each year just so said soccer mom's husband can dream about stopping a home invasion (perpetrated by Mookie Hernandez) with his Bushmaster. And in the gun debate, there can be no gray area; limitless magazines and no paper trails of gun purchases. Any encroachment on that is fascist tyranny. It's not like the constant pushing-of-the-envelope with the privacy-security debate as the tech evolves (that has gone on since the times of J. Edgar), where it's "OK" to secretly gather metadata, but not actual telephony content. And we promise to not cross that line. It's OK to kill Americans without trial, as long as they're overseas and saying hateful things. But we won't go past that, trust us.

Should we find new ways to use technology in uncontroversial ways to make our society safer (not just from terrorism, but from car accidents, sickness, etc.)? Certainly. Should we have a debate on when other priorities need to trump privacy? Sure. So let's talk it out in public rather than let a few scheming powerful men make all the decisions in secret, because we're too scared to live up to our civic duty.



Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Oh the "tragedy" of the IRS scandal

First of all, is it wrong for a gov't agency to act with prejudice? Certainly. Should some people be fired or jailed? Yes if the proper evidence is available. Should we have an investigation to see how high it goes? Probably. But the outrage and tear-jerking by the right over this is worse than comical, it's enraging. NPR reported on the Congressional hearings, and it was like an episode of Maury. One Tea-bagger testified that she couldn't sleep because she could only imagine what evil the gov't would inflict on her next. Give me a break. She and others got her apps delayed and had to answer some annoying questions. Not right, but not the end of the world either (and the same thing happened to some liberal-sounding groups during the Bush years, and that was pre-Citizens United). Did they get shut down and their assets frozen? Did baton-wielding brutes launch tear gas and kick their teeth in? Were they detained for hours without charge or rendered overseas to be tortured? Because that stuff happened to Americans, and I didn't hear a peep out of the Tea-baggers then.

I would be more outraged if the wronged parties were like Mormons or soybean farmers or bugle players. But these are fundamentalist conservatives here, frankly with un-American ideology. They were still wronged, but they don't get to bitch about oppression and abuse when they are the ones advocating policies that marginalize gays, Muslims, people of color, women, the planet, and people with common sense. If they are all about keeping the vile gov't out of our lives and protecting our god-given rights, then why do they want to dictate who you can marry, what you can smoke, where you can build a mosque, what official language we should speak, and when life begins?

And if they distrust/criticize the gov't so much, then why do they expect to get swift, fair, and competent processing of their 501(c)4 status as a tax-free, non-profit, "social welfare" org? They claim to love America, yet hate the gov't. Well the gov't is America too. What are they, bipolar? America is not just a 200-year-old parchment with some old edicts. It needs agencies and people to carry them out. I think over 10% of our workforce is public sector. Maybe that is bad, but those people are your neighbors and family and they mostly mean you no harm (unless they work for DHS or CIA). In fact they help you in so many obvious and subtle ways that you should show some freaking humility and gratitude. Wasteful bureaucracy sucks, but unfortunately it's the easiest way to have a society, unless you trust the free market and for-profit corporations to "run your life" instead. And by the way, there would be no functional market without the government. Well there may be a market, but it would be like a giant craigslist swap meet cluster F.

We know that our system of political finance/influence is broken and corrupt (yes, other nations are much worse but we'd like to think that we're better than Iran or Italy). Citizens United really re-wrote the book and most Americans can't directly experience/fathom the effects. So you now can have orgs where million-dollar donors can be totally anonymous. And you can have some orgs that don't have to pay taxes because they claim to do just enough community service to go along with their 95% narrow political advocacy. Tea-baggers don't like the debt? Then before you cut off a poor working mom, why don't you pay some tax on the collections you reaped at your BS worthless rally? Why don't your employees have to pay into SS and Medicare, yet a literally job-creating company has to (even if it's in the red this year)? The nation is subsidizing your stupid beliefs and advocacy. Yes, you are constitutionally entitled to hold and propagate your stupid beliefs. But don't tell me you should get special treatment and a free ride. Doesn't that make you a taker? And yes, I also believe that religious orgs (that don't do enough REAL social work) and liberal orgs should pay taxes too. The Bugle Players of Alameda County are not the Red Cross. Neither is the Tea Party, any Tea Party.
It's ironic because the bad people that the Tea-baggers claim to be saving America from actually resemble them a lot (apart from being rich, old, and white). And it's strange that the majority of Americans do not hold the same beliefs as these Tea groups. Only in this crazy age do self-proclaimed patriots get financial assistance to advocate for policies that are clearly damaging to the country and its values. And then when they are slightly inconvenienced in the process, it's the worst tragedy-scandal since Benghazi (which is the worst tragedy-scandal in history... their version of history where Republicans like Cheney, North, and Nixon never existed).

Monday, June 3, 2013

The dangerous sectarian nature of the Syrian civil war

I haven't brought up Syria before because I am not well versed in the details, and frankly it's just depressing. But some recent turn of events have made things even more complicated and impactful.

- The civil war is about 2 years old, almost 100K Syrians (and some famous Western journalists) have died, and about 20% of the population is internally or externally displaced.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Syrian_civil_war

- Israel has bombed a supposed weapons shipment to Hezbollah near the border. They may have also bombed a weapons facility in Damascus last month. We are used to thinking that Jihadi groups are also anti-government because most dictators in the Muslim World are kind of secular. But in Hezbollah's case ("The Party of God" formed to oppose the first Israeli invasion of Lebanon), they are explicit allies of Iran (a Shia theocracy and Shia majority nation) and Syria (neither of those). But Hezbollah is Shia and they support Assad against the rebels who are majority Sunni. So things are taking a nasty sectarian turn.


http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/05/world/meast/syria-violence/

- The regime or the rebels may have used chemical weapons in combat, which would violate the "red line" established by Obama as a trigger for escalation. But it's doubtful. However, America's #1 concern there is probably the containment of those WMDs. Even if Assad is toppled, who will control and distribute his stockpile?

- We know that Iran and Russia (and China sort-of) support Assad's regime because they are strategic/trade allies, and Assad as seen as a counter to Israel and US "domination" of the region. So they have blocked stronger EU-led actions against Assad in the UN, and continue to ship high tech weapons to Damascus in spite of global condemnation.

- The EU embargo on weapons trade with Syria just expired, so the UK and France are considering arming the rebels (but which rebels is a big question). The UN has opposed this, and the US doesn't want to go down that route for obvious reasons, but has likely provided advisers and non-lethal resources to some rebels. We are trying to prop up non-Jihadi, pro-Western rebels, because unfortunately some of the most powerful and effective rebel groups like Jabhat al-Nusra are Sunni extremists who have recently allied themselves with Al Qaeda (and therefore got on the global terror list and cut off from Western aid). So clearly we don't want to arm them and help them win, but we also want Assad to fall. Of course rebel groups are fighting each other too, as we saw in Libya. The West is caught in a terrible spot: Assad is a jerk and supported by orgs and nations we don't get along with. He is slaughtering his people, but he is also keeping Al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood out of power there. It's like Egypt but compounded by WMD containment fears.


http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/10/opinion/bergen-al-qaeda-syria/

- As if that wasn't bad enough, the top link from Yahoo describes how Hezbollah is now actively sending in fighters to Syria to defend Assad, a noteworthy escalation (Muslim fighters flocking to Syria, like Afghanistan and Iraq before). This may help Assad cling to power but turn the populace against Islamic groups, though most of them have already picked sides. The Shia Alawites are the ruling minority; wealthier, urban, and aligned with Assad. So Iran, some of Iraq, and Hezbollah obviously support that side, and Saudi, Israel, and Al Qaeda oppose them (interesting "allies" indeed). Al Qaeda leaders have also urged other Muslims to go to Syria and topple Assad. The poorer, oppressed majority are Sunnis, who want Assad out either because they are pro-reform or hate Shia/Alawites or follow Salafi-Jihadi fundamentalist Sunni Islam like Al Qaeda. As we've seen in Iraq, both sides may think of the other as heretics, and both have a history of ethnic cleansing (BTW the Syria conflict is also inflaming sectarian tension in fragile Iraq now too). So Assad and the Shia see this as an existential struggle, because they fear that if the Sunnis take over, they will be slaughtered.

- So who should the West back and arm? It's a confusing mess. Some have said we should intervene on a humanitarian basis and protect civilians. Enforce a no-fly zone maybe. A few problems with that (that completely escape folks like McCain): Syria's air defenses are much better than Libya's or Serbia's. Syria has WMDs and delivery systems for them, unlike Libya or Serbia. Syria is next door to our allies in Iraq and Israel, unlike Libya or Serbia. You get the picture. I am not sure what the "right thing to do" is, but if we intervene militarily, it's going to be ugly with a lot of consequences. What I also fear is an escalating multi-nation sectarian war. We know that various groups are financially and militarily backing or opposing the various Syrian forces. And those backers don't like each other: Iran, Saudi, Israel, the EU, Russia, China, US, and NGOs connected to Jihadi terrorism. This proxy war may eventually evolve into an overt war. And if that happens, Iraq will look tame in comparison.