This
Yale prof and Atlantic editor, Grame Woods, studied comms from ISIS and
interviewed experts to try to understand the group better in order to
recommend the best strategy to defeat them.
As
before with the communists and the Axis of Evil, the US gov't and
mainstream media (mostly FNC) have totally mischaracterized what ISIS is
(and the actual threat they pose), which has led to some calls for
stupid escalations. Fortunately we haven't gone off the deep end like
with the 2003 Iraq invasion, but who knows what the future will hold?
I am
not knowledgeable enough to really vet the author's conclusions,
but from his interview he came off as extremely cogent and fair-minded
on the issue. Basically, for Obama and some Muslim groups to dismiss
ISIS as "un-Islamic" is a disservice to the cause of defeating them. In
fact they are fanatically Islamic, and their playbook almost perfectly
follows some Koranic verses about the end of times (or course they
practice extremely militant/strict interpretations of Islam that
most Muslims have eschewed). It's like if a fundamentalist Christian
cult took over some land in Israel to try to bring about the events in
Revelations. By trying to be PC and un-bigoted, these voices are
ignoring a strategic opportunity that we can use against ISIS: if we
know what they want and how they propose to get it according to their
dogma, we can better deprive them of it.
It's
also wrong to dismiss ISIS as just a bunch of murder and torture junkies
who believe in nothing more than that. Yes they engage in those crimes,
but that is not what motivates them (they are means to an end). Those
atrocities are part of their larger vision for how to deal with the
enemies of Islam (including "bad Muslims") and bring about the
Apocalypse and afterlife rewards. Purge the Middle East, topple Rome,
and bring about the end of days when the Crusaders fight back (and I
guess Allah intervenes, vanquishes them, and rewards his loyal
jihadists).
ISIS is not really a state (they
don't care about land and political power), but more like a prolonged
jihad (similar to the early days of Islam, historically). In fact they
govern horribly (like most regimes in that region), and have promised
recruits/residents a righteous welfare state that they can't possibly
hope to deliver. The Taliban govern much better than them. They succeed
through propaganda and battlefield exploits. As long as they are
advancing, scaring the heretics, and struggling heroically, they look
good. In fact the author compares them most similarly to the Nazis of
the 1930s (the righteous chosen people are suffering due to the
treachery of evil inferior oppressors, so they must rise up and settle
the score). Western societies dangle the promise of freedom and a good
life (but in order for some to have that life, many other poorer people
in the world must suffer). Reactionary groups like the Nazis and ISIS
sell the righteous struggle instead. They romanticize the hard life
because it is worth it to fight the Crusaders/Zionists/apostates, and
your reward for your sacrifice will be eternal glory. For
marginalized, frustrated, and impoverished people in the Middle East
(and some in the West), they are more likely to embrace that goal versus
the democratic capitalist ideal that seems more foreign and
unattainable to them than Star Trek.
So how do
you beat them? Let their hollow and fragile marketing pitch blow up in
their faces, and eventually their subjects and recruits will see through
them and shun them. Take away their true strength, which is their
propaganda built on their blitzkrieg victories and "mein kampf"
narrative of righteous struggle against evil. "Contain, degrade, and
wait it out" may be the best we can do. Halt their expansion, cut off
their funding, and diminish their war capacity, similar to Obama's
initial military response. It's even better if we help local moderate
Muslim forces defeat them (well, if you can call the Syrian,
Jordanian, and Iraqi regimes moderate). The worst thing we can do is
fight conventionally, as that plays into their narrative of resistance
against Crusader oppression. They can't wait to die fighting
against Americans and Jews, as that could be used as glorious recruiting
material.
America is not that good at waiting
patiently, and unfortunately many innocents could die within ISIS lands
while we wait for them to fail. But it is the least bad option of the
ones we have in front of us. Or does anyone have a better idea? Clearly
we could bomb their forces to the Stone Age if we wanted, but then what?
We'd leave a vacuum in 2 nations facing civil war and lack of
governance. The traces of ISIS would just return later, even more
motivated because of our violent campaign against their predecessors.
Remember that ISIS more or less emerged out of the ashes of the
Ba'athists and Al-Qaeda in Iraq. They waited years for their chance, and
they took it. We can't afford to give them another.