Showing posts with label bank. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bank. Show all posts

Saturday, February 13, 2010

How Goldman Sachs made all their recent loot

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june10/goldmansachs_02-11.html
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/jan-june10/goldmansachs_02-12.html

NOMI PRINS, former managing director, Goldman Sachs: First, of course, they received $10 billion in TARP money. Even though, a year later, they can say, "Well, we didn't really need it," They really needed it.

And look what they did with it!

Goldman's CEO recently testified on the Hill about his company's record profits and big bonuses from 2009, when many Americans were suffering terribly. He basically said that they did it without government help, and that they are just a kickass operation that "allocates capital" and grows wealth for millions of people out there. They are "important" to the economy. While that is probably true, it also glosses over some inconvenient details of how they got there.

Goldman is basically a hedge fund that applied for bank status in order to get TARP funds, and the government went along. Only 10% of their revenue comes from i-banking, and 75% came from trading (mostly commodities and currencies). So we can't really buy the "we're nice guys who lend money so you can make money" story. And they did so well in trading partially due to "front running" of clients. Say Goldman thinks oil is undervalued, so they buy up a crap load of it (where they get the funds to do this will surprise you too - I'll explain soon). Then they consult their clients to do the same, of course AFTER they have gotten in at a lower price. So by their sheer size and the reach of their advising, they can move global markets in their favor. Technically this is illegal, but it's hard to prove and enforce. And in their case, it's amazingly profitable.

In addition, they were selling risky mortgage-backed securities to pension funds while they were taking out huge insurance policies with AIG and others to protect against losses from those securities. Pension fund managers were much less savvy, and just wanted to get in on this seemingly booming market. Goldman gave them the green light, and they trusted them. Of course their greed blinded them from questioning why brainy Goldman would want to sell something solid and profitable to another party. But instead, they sold a suicidal guy a gun, and then took out a life insurance policy on him. Most people now agree that Goldman's political connections and heavy pressuring of Washington helped them decide to bail out AIG. This allowed AIG to pay Goldman the $13B it owed on the policies, which Goldman then used in 2009 to make huge bucks off a troubled market.

Goldman was traditionally a trading house, but applied to become a bank-holding company in order to gain access to TARP funds. They claim that they didn't need to for survival, but were pressured to do so by the government (to help disguise to the public which banks were the most distressed, all the banks too some money). They quickly paid back their $10B TARP loans in order to unfetter themselves from government regulations (especially bonus limits). But as a "bank", they had access to basically limitless Federal Reserve credit at near zero interest rate (0.1-0.3% at most). And their debt was insured by the FDIC. What a deal. And here's the best part - Goldman used taxpayer money to buy Treasury bonds that paid out 3.5-4%. So with zero risk, Goldman transferred huge sums of money from the Fed to Treasury, and the government paid them a commission for it.

Of course there were many more lucrative investments out there in 2009 than T-bonds, so Goldman also used Fed cash to make money in other markets. With the security of government backing, Goldman raised a ton of private capital ($28B in 2009) versus other Wall Street players, and they did it at an interest rate only 1-1.5% higher than what the US government borrows at. So basically that means people think Goldman is as meager of a borrowing risk as the USA. And really, is there a difference at this point?

I know some Goldman supporters will say they deserve it, because it was all more-or-less legal. They were smart and they exploited loopholes and panic. They are in the cutthroat business of wealth maximizing, and make no apologies for doing their job. This is their MO; they beat competitors by finding new and "clever" ways of making money. Blame the system and the government (comprised of many ex-Goldman folks and others with an interest in Goldman's success). Well I do also. Drug dealers and weapons traffickers are also innovative businessmen who make big money. Maybe making money isn't a sin by itself, but what depths do you sink to do so?

Like Enron, they're the smartest assholes in the room. But I'm sure that one day they will get Enron-ed too. Pride cometh before the fall.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Goldman Sachs TARP payback


http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103122382
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldman_Sachs
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B18220CBF%2D2FAB%2D4943%2D9693%2D0336B2D16A01%7D&siteid=rss

"Clearly we have created banks that are too big to fail; should we be asking if they are also too big to exist?" - Simon Johnson

There was an interesting interview on Fresh Air yesterday with Simon Johnson, the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund during 2007 and 2008. He is a professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management. He raised some interesting points about the bank bailout and the concerns over the Goldman TARP payback news. He also wrote a piece in The Atlantic describing the ways that the financial sector asserts its dominance over Washington, often at our expense.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200905/imf-advice

Goldman (stock was near 200 before the crash, hit a low of 45 in Dec., and now is back to 120) claims that it took $10B in TARP money last year because the gov't twisted its arm - Treasury wanted to give aid to healthy banks as well, so that it wasn't obvious to the public which banks were the most troubled, in order to head off bank runs. Goldman claims it didn't really need a rescue, and now like Wells Fargo they are doing fine, so they want to repay their TARP loan. They want to do this to unfetter themselves from all the TARP-associated restrictions, namely compensation limits. With their competitors struggling, Goldman thinks it will be able to attract the top talent during this recession, so that they will be better poised to clean house once the economy rebounds. Basically they want to stack the deck, even if it puts the overall bank recovery and TARP program at risk. With the entire system still near the precipice, old habits die hard for greedsters like Goldman.

But TARP rules state that it is the GOVERNMENT, not the banks, that makes the final call about how and when institutions pay back their TARP loans. So this may become a showdown between the "bank oligarchy" and the Federal Government about who calls the shots during this precarious process. But in Goldman's case, it's more complex. Some think that the Feds would love to get Goldman's $10B returned, because it validates their bailout efforts and demonstrates that the financial industry may be on the mend. Also Geithner will have a fresh $10B to dole out to others. Seems good, right? Well, $10B is a drop in the bucket compared to the trillion dollars Bush/Obama have already injected into economic recovery efforts. More critically, if Goldman returns its loan to show that it is doing well, what does that say about other banks that don't? Will the public assume the worst about them? Even relatively healthy banks may not plan to repay TARP loans in the next 12 months, but now they may feel pressured to accelerate their plans, which may not be beneficial to their institution, clients, and shareholders. But to be fair, Goldman is not the first to try to repay its federal loans; 6 others banks have already done so, and others are considering it, though they're small regional banks and not household names with global influence like Goldman.

This pre-emptive strike is a big middle finger from Goldman to its competition... and to the gov't/taxpayers too. Many critics think that the Feds have already bent over backwards to help Wall Street. You'd think the least the banks could do is hold up their end of the bargain and play straight with us. Nope. Obama had to practically beg them to even accept conditional bailouts (with pay limits), and throw in huge incentives/guarantees for them to offer up their "troubled assets" to investors through the Geithner plan (many banks are still mulling it over). Trying to cover their own asses, the banks have fought us every step of the way, which has only worsened the financial crisis and delayed recovery. And now they have the hubris to think that beggars can be choosers. If the Feds let Goldman have its way now, it will show the public (and other banks) who's boss, as well as cast doubt on the gov'ts ability to better reform and regulate the financial sector in the future.

But we really shouldn't be surprised. Goldman is an investment bank, but during last fall's crash, it applied to become a bank holding company (like Citi and BofA), just so they could be eligible for Federal Reserve assistance. Morgan Stanley did the same, so now actually none of Wall Street's historic i-banks exist anymore. But Goldman is not a bank, it's a risk-taking brokerage house. Just because it bought a few struggling boondocks community banks, doesn't mean it should enjoy savings and loan status. Also, it's hard to argue that Goldman was healthy all along and just took TARP to be a team player. $13B of the initial $80B that went to help AIG meet its debt underwriting obligations went to Goldman.

We have discussed the "revolving door" between Congress and lobbyists, but what about the r-door between Wall Street executives and financial regulators? Clinton's Treasury Sec. Robert Rubin, W's Treasury Sec. Hank Paulson, Geithner's chief of staff, the current head of the CFTC, and others in government are ex-Goldman employees. There is no way they aren't getting preferential treatment from Washington. Oh, and did I forget to mention that Goldman was Obama's #2 campaign donor?

The American financial industry gained political power by amassing a kind of cultural capital—a belief system. Once, perhaps, what was good for General Motors was good for the country. Over the past decade, the attitude took hold that what was good for Wall Street was good for the country. The banking-and-securities industry has become one of the top contributors to political campaigns, but at the peak of its influence, it did not have to buy favors the way, for example, the tobacco companies or military contractors might have to. Instead, it benefited from the fact that Washington insiders already believed that large financial institutions and free-flowing capital markets were crucial to America’s position in the world.

Big banks, it seems, have only gained political strength since the crisis began. And this is not surprising. With the financial system so fragile, the damage that a major bank failure could cause—Lehman was small relative to Citigroup or Bank of America—is much greater than it would be during ordinary times. The banks have been exploiting this fear as they wring favorable deals out of Washington. Bank of America obtained its second bailout package (in January) after warning the government that it might not be able to go through with the acquisition of Merrill Lynch, a prospect that Treasury did not want to consider.

-Simon Johnson

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Bank hysteria misplaced, equal justice for all?


A couple points for thought:

1) Is the bank crisis mostly imaginary, due to people's hysteria and exploiting panic?

The comments below are from a CNBC banking analyst, made before the good news about Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs came out.

http://seekerblog.com/archives/20090325/richard-bove-hysteria-about-banks-financial-condition/
In the last 3 months of 2008 depositors put $100 billion per month into new bank deposits - deposits which cost the banks half the interest rate of a year ago. 98% of loans are paying interest and principle. 97% of loans are also current. Home equity loans - most people think they are awful, no longer supported by real estate equity, etc. But the facts are that only 1.6% of home equity loans are non-performing. Almost all of the banks have positive cash flow - how can they go out of business given the cash flow. Exceptions are Citigroup and In Q1 - 2009 banks are going to show an operating profit. Loan losses are going to go up in credit cards and commercial real estate. But so far the loan losses are not enough to make the banks unprofitable. But note that in Q4 only .25% of CRE loans were in default (per the FDIC). That default rate is increasing.

The Financial Times and other economists don't seem to like the Obama-Geithner toxic asset plan either:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b3e99880-1991-11de-9d34-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2009/03/25/2009-03-25_the_new_geithner_plan_is_a_flop.html

2) Equal justice for all?
http://www.tcpjusticedenied.org/
A legal group recently conducted a very extensive analysis of indigent defense (court-appointed public defense for people who cannot afford any better) in all 50 states, in order to evaluate whether the Sixth Amendment ("In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall have the assistance of counsel for his defense") is being carried out. Counsels do get assigned, but if they are unable to provide adequate defense (due to excessive workload, poor skills/resources, and other disadvantages vs. prosecutors), then what is the point? The actual report is attached.
"You should not have a better shot at justice, a better opportunity for an adequate defense, depending upon who arrests you in this country or where you were when you were arrested or what court system a defendant winds up in," [co-author] Tim Lewis said. "This is a basic constitutional right." [...] The report goes into detail about the wide range of ways public defender systems fail poor defendants. Sometimes people don't get lawyers at all. Other times they get a lawyer who is so overworked and underpaid that there's no way the accused can get a real defense. -NPR

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On the Geithner plan, yeah, it looks like a massive wealth transfer from my tax-paying pocket to a bunch of assholes in the finance industry. Steiglitz wrote a NYT editorial attacking it as ersatz capitalism a couple weeks ago: http://www.greenchange.org/article.php?id=4209

Krugman had a fairly interesting editorial last week as well about making banking boring: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/10/opinion/10krugman.html The essential argument is that too many smart people are spending too much time pushing money around, rather than actually going out and building something. There's been a huge amount of backlash from the hardcore finance propellerheads arguing Krugman's data, and I honestly don't know enough about it to evaluate the strength of his empirical claims. But I remember being at Stanford and seeing a depressingly large number of really smart people going off to push money around on the plate in finance, rather than going into an industry where they could actually build something useful (and let's not even get started on the consultants).

There's this guy who went back through historical records looking at the percentage of Harvard's graduating class of MBAs each year and correlating that number with the stock market. Essentially what he discovered is that the percentage is negatively correlated with the long-term performance of the US equity market. That is, when ~10% of HBS grads are going into finance, the stock market goes up. When ~30-40% of HBS grads are going into finance, the market's headed for a big correction. It was in the high 30's for each of 2006 and 2007, as the market headed towards the crash. Here's the historical reports: http://www.soiferconsulting.com/soifer_consulting_articles.htm And here's a somewhat tongue-in-cheek reporting about it: http://www.slate.com/id/2109982/ It makes an interesting argument for regulating finance to be a lot less interesting, forcing those big brains can go do something more useful.

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On the equal justice thing ...

First off, clearly the way indigent defense is handled in this country is shameful, and should be fixed. That said ..

I read over their recommendations for state and federal governments, and they all essentially seem to come down to "put more money into public defense." I think that's probably a reasonable thing to suggest, given the problems. But looking at their reporters and committee, the vast majority of whom seem to be deep in the legal profession, I can't help but wonder if this is really the most efficient way to solve this.

I'm not a lawyer, nor do I play one on tv, so I'm mostly full of it here. But it seems like some part of the reason that rich people get a better defense than poor people is because of the unbelievable complexity of the law. The advantage the rich have is not that they can actually bribe the court into a better settlement (I mean, ignoring the corruption cases, which are admittedly embarrassing but I think relatively unrepresentative of the overall problem). It's that they can hire a huge team of people to go through and look for loopholes: lawyers to look for weird holes in the law, investigators to look for weird holes in the evidentiary process (I heard that phrase on tv once!), etc.

Seems like the most efficient solution is to simplify the law. If these processes were easier to work through, without so many crazy holes and trapdoors and so forth, it might make it a lot easier to provide even representation to everyone. Some of that complexity is useful, but we need to start acknowledging as a nation that the complexity also has a huge adverse effect on our ability to build fairness. Admittedly, though, it would force a lot of lawyers to go find something useful to do with their big brains, so it seems unlikely we'll be seeing that recommendation from any lawyerly review panels.

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Thanks for the comments and I agree. Yes it would be good to kind of de-incentivize interest in the financial sector and creative investing. I mean, we'll always need fund managers, brokers, and such, but maybe in a more reasonable scale. What can we do though - salary limits? I think 900 people at Goldman Sachs had over $1M compensation last year. They are famous for high pay, so obviously debt-ridden Ivy League MBAers would want to go there (also it's the best place to try to take over the world). It would be better if we could attract more talent towards more tangible innovative pursuits, maybe even education. I guess it does take some creativity and intellect to play these futures markets and move debt around to make money. But yeah, it's clearly not real LABOR. I haven't had a chance to look at your links yet but the correlation is hilarious. Too bad we don't have enough data points to track how HBS US presidents affect the econ, but the first one doesn't look good.

Re: legal fairness - for some problems, throwing money at it can help a lot. Clearly we need to invest more in improving public defense. But if you're talking about re-writing the laws to make them less complex, it's a much bigger challenge than the tax code. Presidents have talked about de-mystifying the tax code for decades, but it's only gotten MORE complex. Heck the recent Obama stimulus bill created 300 changes to the tax code. So you are right that the privileged are better poised to exploit complexities and loopholes to their advantage, yet the long arm of the law comes down hard on lower-income recreational drug users or Earned Income Tax Credit abusers. But getting Congress to do anything large scale is obviously tough.

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Oh, so I guess in my excitement I missed explaining what I meant by limiting how interesting finance is and how many people get into it. I honestly don't believe that limiting pay really works ... it usually just forces people to get more creative about how they pay (like back when software firms didn't account for stock options as an expense, though clearly that was how they were paying their people). I think the fix is just more serious regulation of the finance industry: putting limits on how creative you can get with derivatives and related instruments, forcing these instruments to be standardized and over the counter, adding more restrictive capital requirements (and making the requirements counter-cyclical), forcing the markets to be more transparent, blah blah. Krugman's editorial is more detailed about it.

And yeah, I agree that you need more money in public defense. But when I see a report written by a bunch of lawyers which reaches the conclusion that the government should pay a lot more money to the legal profession, it sets off a big red siren in the back of my brain :)

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Yeah you're right about the compensation. Even with the "pay limits" imposed on bailed out bank execs, I am sure they are getting other forms of compensation. But just as people get creative about pay, they are doubly creative on derivatives and exotic investment schemes. It seems that the schemers are always one step (or many leaps) ahead of the regulators. But maybe after learning the lessons of this bubble, coupled with increased transparency & restrictions, it can only get better.

Sure lawyers griping about pay looks silly, but of course there is a wide range of pay in the legal profession. Public defenders right out of school get $45k, and 5 years exper. get $61k. Their associate DA opponents get at least $80k in most metro areas. A "general attorney" gets $99k on average in the private sector, and we know some can net much more. I suppose I should use the physician analogy - who would want to be a GP when a radiologist specialist can make 4X more money while maybe even less work? If we can't attract bright people to the dirtier, less glamorous jobs in law or medicine, then those areas will continue to underperform.

http://www.payscale.com/research/US/Job=Public_Defender/Salary
http://www.indeed.com/salary/Attorney.html

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Dodd/AIG finger pointing


This Dodd/AIG business is becoming as convoluted and unhelpful as the Alberto Gonzalez attorney firings. More and more it appears that Dodd, although the beneficiary of big bank money for decades, was actually the "good guy" who pushed from the start for strict pay limits on execs from institutions who take bailout money (both future and retroactive). But it was Obama's Clinton-carryover economics advisor Summers and controversial Treasury pick Geithner, both with deep ties to Wall Street, whose offices pressured Dodd to include AIG exceptions in the bill.


http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/

Regardless of who initiated what, the Obama White House's Bush-like rationale for toning down Dodd's pay limits was that they feared (a) it would discourage banks from participating in the bailout, and (b) a legal firestorm if they were to modify pre-existing private labor contracts. But the following experts on NYT suggest that excuse b ("the sanctity of labor contracts") is rubbish. Labor agreements get modified all the time without much outcry, especially involving labor unions.

http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/17/when-bonus-contracts-can-be-broken/

But now that the poop has hit the fan, the White House is pinning the blame on Dodd, and Obama "didn't know anything". So either the president needs to rein in his people, or he needs to level with the country.

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UPDATE III: I'm receiving email regarding the remarks Dodd made today on CNN in which he stated that, at the White House's insistence and over his objections, he agreed to include the pre-February, 2009 carve-out in the stimulus bill. Some of these emailers have suggested that Dodd's comments are at odds with what I wrote. They quite plainly are not.

The narrative I wrote here (and which Hamsher wrote in her post) both included exactly that sequence:

That was the exact provision that Geithner and Summers demanded and that Dodd opposed. And even after Dodd finally gave in to Treasury's demands, he continued to support an amendment from Ron Wyden and Olympia Snowe to impose fines on bailout-receiving companies which paid executive bonuses."

I explicitly wrote that it was Dodd who, after arguing vehemently against this provision, ultimately agreed to its inclusion. And the statement from Dodd's office that I quoted above included the same series of events ("Because of negotiations with the Treasury Department and the bill Conferees, several modifications were made, including adding the exemption"). That's exactly what Dodd said today on CNN.

The point was -- and is -- that Dodd was pressured to put that carve-out in at the insistence of Treasury officials (whose opposition meant that Dodd's two choices were the limited compensation restriction favored by Geithner/Summers or no compensation limits at all), and Dodd did so only after arguing in public against it. To blame Dodd for provisions that the White House demanded is dishonest in the extreme, and what Dodd said today on CNN about the White House's advocacy of this provision confirms, not contradicts, what I wrote.

UPDATE IV: From the CNN article on the Dodd interview:

Dodd acknowledged his role in the change after a Treasury Department official told CNN the administration pushed for the language.

Both Dodd and the official, who asked not to be named, said it was because administration officials were afraid the government would face numerous lawsuits without the new language. . . .

I agreed reluctantly," Dodd said. "I was changing the amendment because others were insistent."

It was the Treasury Department -- at least according to a Treasury official granted anonymity for the extremely compelling reason that he "asked not to be named" -- that pushed for the carve-out, and did so over Dodd's objections. That was the point from the beginning. That's precisely what made it so outrageous that the administration was trying to blame Dodd for a provision which Obama's own Treasury officials advocated, pushed for and engineered.

Anyone who doubts Dodd's opposition should just go read the above-excerpted articles which reported contemporaneously about the dispute Dodd was having with the White House over the scope of the compensation limits. For obvious reasons, those real-time accounts are far more instructive about what really happened than what the parties are saying now that everyone is trying desperately to avoid blame for the politically toxic AIG bonus payments.

-- Glenn Greenwald

And some hilarious "flip flopping" from the GOP over pay limits and AIG bonuses, courtesy of Lis and Salon. But this is somewhat typical and expected of a wounded, opportunistic party out of power, and desperate for a comeback.

Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) in Feb:
“I thought, is this still America? Do we really tell people how to run [a business], and who to pay and how much to pay?”
[Huffington Post, 2/6/09]

Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) in Mar:
“The AIG situation is clear evidence of what happens when you shovel money out the door with no strings attached and no transparency.”
[KTUL, 3/17/09]
======================
Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) in Feb:
“The worst thing we can do is tell businesses how to run themselves. Congress has a pretty bad track record. If you you look at our collective judgment, all 535 of us in our wisdom can’t run government very well. (We) sure can’t run business.”
[STL Today, 2/2/09]

Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO) in Mar:
“It’s unacceptable to pay bonuses after the American taxpayer was forced to bail out an institution without reforming it.”
[KRCG, 3/18/09]
=======================
Rep. Peter King (R-NY) in Feb:
“No, I will say, I agree there should have been some caps. (But) I think this (Dodd’s provision on limiting executive compensation)
went too far, and I think it can be counterproductive.”
[ABC News, 2/15/09]

Rep. Peter King (R-NY) in Mar:
Q: “Should Congress, should the White House be getting a way for these contracts to be broken?”
KING: “Congress should find a way to do it or the administration should lean on them in a way to get – to have it done.”
[MSNBC, 3/17/09]

http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Bank nationalization


i heard it described quite succinctly the other day: you're walking down the street and you see a vampire sucking the blood of a man. you give the vampire a blood transfusion in the hopes that the blood will fill up the vampire and will eventually flow the other way, from the vampire back into the man. what we need to do is yank the vampire off the man and stick a wooden steak in his heart turning him into dust so he can never harm anyone again.

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Yeah, it boils down to triage. There is a point where the constant billion-dollar infusions add up to be costlier than just cutting them loose or taking them over. I guess what Stiglitz said about Lehman is important though - Washington was wrong to let that entire institution fail, which did have serious ripple effects. There was the good, necessary side of Lehman (commercial paper trading as an important payment mechanism in the global money market - whatever that means!), and the irresponsible, gambling side. Preserve the good, rename it, or sell it to someone trustworthy, then ditch the cancerous part. Easier said than done I'm sure, but I don't see any other way.

Unfortunately the financial sector has become very skilled at vampirism and parasitism. We may be able to kill the vamp, but he's biting down hard on our jugular, so to remove him means injuring ourselves greatly (or mortally). They're a top campaign contributor to Washington, they employ thousands of people, and are custodians of trillions of our wealth. They "oil the gears of the economy". We can't just cast them out to the wilderness. Even if we try to purge the bad aspects while retaining the good, they will sound the alarm that the sky is falling, and then no one will have the balls to carry on. All they have to do is threaten us that our money will be in jeopardy, then instant paralysis and compliance. It's blackmail in its purest form. That's why the Reagan-Bush-Clinton de-regulations were so costly - they let the financiers run amok and take over. Now we can't put the genie back into the bottle without a lot of pain. I guess we've passed the point of no return. It's not like we can return to the 1960's with conservative S&Ls, double-digit interest rates deterring overborrowing, and less-globalized, less-volatile markets.

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Yeah, he makes some interesting points, and he's obviously a smart guy. I think it's good that he's pointing out how cheated the government was in the initial TARP stuff. The warren testimony from the congressional oversight committee suggested that for the $254B the government spent, we got assets worth $176B, so a $78B shortfall. That's kind of a lot.

There are a couple of complexities which I think he gives short shrift to, which help explain a bit more of the government's challenge here.

First, the government cannot announce that they're thinking about nationalization because it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. As soon as you announce that you're considering a plan to nationalize and wipe out existing shareholders, all of the existing shareholders run for the exits. That makes the bank's capitalization rate collapse, and suddenly the bank *requires* nationalization. So even if Obama and Co are thinking about it as a potential plan, I'd hope that they're smart enough not to talk about it until they're ready to go. A lot of this is confidence management, because everyone is still spooked.

Second, this crisis is dramatically complicated by all of the SIV and CDO-style financial products. In earlier bank bailouts, to which everyone keeps referring, when the government nationalized a bank they got real assets, or something one step removed from real assets: a title to a steel factory in Pitt, a mortgage on a specific home in Dallas, etc. Pricing and selling those assets back into the market is reasonably well-understood - you can service the mortgage, foreclose on it, etc, because you own the mortgage. With this bailout, if the government takes over a bank they get ... SIVs? The connection to the real assets is diluted through these complicated debt tranches, such that ownership is diluted among potentially the whole economy. And the bank or company actually servicing the mortgage is distinct. In previous bailouts you could take over the bank, and become essentially the owner-operator of the mortgage, where one legal entity makes decisions about how to act and bears the effect of those decisions. You've now got a company that operates (services) the mortgage and makes decisions about it according to an elaborate contract, but bearing the effect of those decisions is diffused among this huge number of people who own portions of individual tranches into which the mortgages were collateralised. The tempting answer is to say, "well, take over all the banks so you own all the pieces, and unwind them yourself" ... but it's not just banks who own these things, they're spread throughout the financial system. It's pretty tough to buy up all the remaining pieces because nobody really knows what they're worth ... I mean, they had some pricing model before the crash, but the legal contract binding these things up hasn't really been tested in a doomsday scenario like we're seeing now, so no one knows what it's worth when it falls apart.

So somehow you have to figure out how to unwind or desecuritise or otherwise deal with these crazy-complicated CDOs. And you can't really talk about it publicly, because as soon as you say "Well, we're thinking about forcing desecuritisation of these things," everyone flees, the market value drops, more banks implode ... self-fulfilling prophesy. And you've got similar problems throughout the shadow banking system. I mean we're talking about some serious "rebuild the airplane while it's in flight" kind of shit here. I don't mean to suggest that bankers aren't a bunch of pocket-filling assholes (and shameless ones at that - the Merrill bonuses were just unbelievable), but rather that there really is a fair bit of complexity to what Obama has to do here.

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The other thing making a nationalization of a bank like Citi more complicated is that they don't simply just make investments based on their internal capital and then collect the income from the investments. Citi and its ilk have grown into these massive financial conglomerates that offer hundreds of tangentially related financial products. In these dealings, if the counterparties (i.e. other large financial institutions) start to get worried that they may be locked out of their money for a certain amount of time, they're going to head for the hills in a matter of days, leading to the collapse of the bank. It's basically an institutional run on the bank, across hundreds of different products.

Even the threat that nationalization could disrupt operations could send all these counterparties elsewhere, and once the downward cycle gets started, it's basically impossible to stop. That's what happened to Bear Stearns and Lehman. What could happen if nationalization is done incorrectly is that the government takes over a bank only to find the money-making aspect of the bank dried up and all that's left is all the obligations. A shitpile of enormous proportions.

Of course, it's entirely problematic that banks got so big and so complex that they can't fail in the first place, and I'd be fully in favor of regulations that don't allow banks to amass such shitpiles of capital and become so central to the economy that we have to baby them in bad times with tons of taxpayer money. So we can thank Phil Gramm and co. for those innovations, but at the moment, we are where we are, and there are not a lot of good options, from what I understand.

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I see what you guys mean. By no means do I think Obama's task is easy or clear - or someone would have done it already.

Yeah, I agree J about the panic over nationalization. Didn't Sen. Dodd mention that they were pondering it, and BofA/Citi shares dipped 20%? So of course Obama had to go public and reassure everyone that it is not the case. I know he may have no choice, but it just seems bizarre that our leader would have to knowingly deceive us, then spring it on us at the last minute, just because he knows human nature and needs to save us from ourselves. The gov't can impose trading freezes in some situations, in order to prevent market crashes or excessive speculation. Why can't they freeze shares in banks that are under consideration for conservatorship? Not just shares, but all the complex SIVs and whatnot too? Then there won't be a fire sale and they have time to sort stuff out without chaos. Head off the bank run. So instead of figuring out how to fix the aircraft mid flight, freeze it until you know what's wrong, then fix. I am sure that is against the law or something though.

Well, for now we must demand better accountability and paper trails for all these creative investments. In the drug business, the FDA mandates that you literally show quality/safety data every step of the way in a clinical trial. First everything has to be documented, approved, and you can't deviate from your pre-established plan without very good cause. The raw materials that go to the plant, the manufacturing process, the shipping/storage, the dosing in patients, and every unused cc is accounted for. We better have something similar for the financial sector, like mortgage bundle A is 60% owned by Citi via fund X, and 40% owned by Fannie. Or if the ownership is too complicated or dilute as you said, then the gov't can cancel all ownership claims until the asset is properly valued, then distribute it as fairly as possible to the parties based on what paper trail evidence they have? I mean, can't we apply the rules of bankruptcy court to any of this? Even if we nationalize banks that are hollow and full of obligations, why not cancel/postpone those obligations? So people don't get what they're owed - sucks but not the end of the world. It's no different than the FDIC. If an insured bank goes down, the gov't may not get around to compensating the victims for years, due to all the red tape (and their modest money pool). But we feel security from such a system nevertheless. We've had over 6 months to try to figure out what we bought with TARP, and there's so much still out there to untangle. Either we need to get more headcount on this, or force institutions to give out more information.

Like A said, it was too risky to create these one-stop-shopping financial behemoths. Sure in the good times they are more competitive and can leverage diverse assets to make more money in complex investments. Yeah the sad part is Gramm, Greenspan, Clinton, Weil, Bush, Cox, and all those free marketeers are not regretful at all of their actions. They always just chalk it up to greed and human errors - the system is fine. We broke up Ma Bell and Standard Oil - so maybe we can do it again. But actually it was the Fed. Gov't that encouraged BofA to buy Countrywide/Merrill, Chase to buy Bear, etc. Just imagine how those super banks will behave in the next boom? Even with better regulation proposed by Obama, they will always be ahead of the curve. Regulation is often retrograde.

I guess this convo. mirrors our previous threads: sure Uncle Sam wants to prevent bank runs, but what if they are propping up a zombie as A said? Better to let go now than when you're more committed. That's why DC needs to stop babying Wall Street and really get down to business to find out who owns what and how much its worth. Of course the problem is that no one knows, not even the owners. But we can't sit idly by as they stall and hold out on us, until Washington has no choice but to nationalize.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

The slow death of Glass-Steagall regulations

We know that deregulation played a significant role in our current financial crisis, but I was surprised to learn how prominently the righteous Democrats factored into the problem. So selective-memory liberals need to cut the revisionist blame (Bush) game, especially Obama, who will inherit a Biblical-scale crisis partially of his party's making. And maybe the Clintonites shouldn't take so much credit for the "great economy" they presided over in the 1990s, when some of their policies contributed to the spread of casino capitalism and our current mess. Needless to say the free-market GOP didn't help much either, but many House Republicans have fought for Main Street common sense since the 1980s, trying to resist Wall Street lobbied and funded initiatives to "emancipate" commercial banks like WaMu to invest our money however they please, and permit the creation of total financial services juggernauts like Citigroup. Such beasts are powerful enough to hold an entire economy hostage (as we now know), and are "too big to fail", even if they blatantly screw themselves and everyone.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/weill/demise.html

This link is an interesting timeline from a 2005 PBS Frontline series about "fixing Wall Street" (oh, if only our leaders listened!). They discuss the gradual dismantling of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act, which established the FDIC in response to the 1929 crash. It also prohibited US commercial banks and bank-holding companies from being both lending hubs and brokerage houses, which creates an inherent conflict of interest and purpose (as we've seen recently). Banks are naturally security and stability-oriented, while securities traders are more risk and volatility-oriented (despite the misleading name). So if banks underwrote securities, then they couldn't lend, and vice versa. I think that makes a lot of sense, but obviously bankers felt that it impeded their ability to make money and be "competitive" with foreign financial conglomerates.

So over the years, Citi, JPM, and others lobbied Washington to repeal Glass-Steagall restrictions. In the 1970s, brokerage houses started to become pseudo-banks, offering FDIC-insured money-market accounts and issuing checks/plastic. We take this for granted today as "normal", but it was not always so, and for the good reasons previously described. In 1986, for the first time the Fed reinterpreted Section 20 of the Act separating lending banks from brokerage houses. They decreed that banks cannot be "principally" involved in securities, but permitted up to 5% of a bank's revenues to come from investing in commercial paper. That percentage seems minor, but for heavyweight banks, it could entail billions in investments able to threaten the other 95%. In 1987, the Fed narrowly voted 3-2 to permit banks to trade in municipal bonds and now-infamous mortgage backed securities. Then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was skeptical, and feared that easing restrictions would make banks lower their lending standards, recklessly pursue attractive-yet-irresponsible investments, and push bad loans on the public. To assuage concerns, banking heads testified that these changes wouldn't be harmful, because unlike 1930, we now have external protections like the "effective" SEC and "sophisticated" rating agencies, plus modern investors are much more savvy and informed, allowing them to shun risky investments/institutions. The last few years have shown that all those claims were false and Volcker was right.

Also that year, former JP Morgan head and deregulation proponent Alan Greenspan became the new Fed Chairman, replacing "killjoy" Paul Volcker. The Greenspan Fed expanded the bank revenue limit stemming from securities underwriting from 5 to 10%, and later to 25% in 1989. This final change essentially neutralized the purpose of Glass-Steagall, since any major bank could easily do all the risky speculation and underwriting it wanted, and still fly below that generous ceiling. This also opened the door for merger-mania, as commercial banks craved securities firms to turn larger, more diversified profits, and investment houses lusted after banks' vast deposits and loans to package and play on the market. In the majority-Democrat Congress, twice the Senate passed a bill to repeal Glass-Steagall (1984, 1988), but twice the House blocked it, similar to the financial bailout bill this month. Not coincidentally, the FIRE sector (finance, insurance, real estate) was one of the most generous contributors to Congress. In the midterm election cycle of 1997-8 alone, they gave $150M to campaigns and spent $200M on lobbying activities. I can only assume the numbers have gone much higher in this decade.

Many of us were a bit young to absorb the scale of the event, but in 1998 a bomb dropped on Wall Street and Washington, with the biggest merger in history that created Citigroup from Citicorp and Traveler's Insurance (which previously bought the investment bank Salomon Smith Barney). But the deal didn't pass easily and was fraught with controversy. Foremost, Traveler's was an insurance company, and what remained of Glass-Steagall prohibited such a company from becoming a bank as well. So Congress and regulators had three choices: can the deal, change the laws, or force Citi to scrap its lucrative insurance division. But of course those companies' chairmen John Reed and Sandy Weill pushed the Clinton administration, Greenspan, and the Gingrich Congress to change the laws and approve the deal. They met him half-way: the deal would go through, and Citi would have 2 years to divest from insurance. So now Weill et al. were under time pressure to change the laws, and midterm elections were approaching. But more pressure came from Wall Street, where investors punished the stock, fearing Congress wouldn't approve the deal or change the laws in time. In May, the House approved changes to permit banks to also deal in insurance by a razor-thin 214-213 vote, and the Phil Gramm-led Senate Banking Committee signed onto a modified version later.

But we still didn't have a new law. Through intense debate and negotiations in 1999, Weill et al. convinced the White House and Congress (often by direct phone call) to finally do the impossible. The Financial Services Modernization Act was the remaining step in their victory march: Glass-Steagall had finally and totally perished, after 12 failed attempts in Congress over 25 years, and $300M spent in the lobbying effort. The Clintonites were on the way out of the White House and needed a golden parachute, and they got it from Wall Street.

And as we know now, Glass and Steagall were RIGHT.

I'll close with this:

Oct.-Nov. 1999Congress passes Financial Services Modernization Act

Just days after the administration (including the Treasury Department) agrees to support the repeal [of Glass-Steagall], Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, the former co-chairman of a major Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs, raises eyebrows by accepting a top job at Citigroup as Weill's chief lieutenant.


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http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/

1933Glass-Steagall Act creates new banking landscape

Following the Great Crash of 1929, one of every five banks in America fails. Many people, especially politicians, see market speculation engaged in by banks during the 1920s as a cause of the crash.
In 1933, Senator Carter Glass (D-Va.) and Congressman Henry Steagall (D-Ala.) introduce the historic legislation that bears their name, seeking to limit the conflicts of interest created when commercial banks are permitted to underwrite stocks or bonds. In the early part of the century, individual investors were seriously hurt by banks whose overriding interest was promoting stocks of interest and benefit to the banks, rather than to individual investors. The new law bans commercial banks from underwriting securities, forcing banks to choose between being a simple lender or an underwriter (brokerage). The act also establishes the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), insuring bank deposits, and strengthens the Federal Reserve's control over credit.
In 1956, the Bank Holding Company Act is passed, extending the restrictions on banks, including that bank holding companies owning two or more banks cannot engage in non-banking activity and cannot buy banks in another state.


1960s-70sFirst efforts to loosen Glass-Steagall restrictions

Beginning in the 1960s, banks lobby Congress to allow them to enter the municipal bond market, and a lobbying subculture springs up around Glass-Steagall. Some lobbyists even brag about how the bill put their kids through college.
In the 1970s, some brokerage firms begin encroaching on banking territory by offering money-market accounts that pay interest, allow check-writing, and offer credit or debit cards.


1986-87Fed begins reinterpreting Glass-Steagall; Greenspan becomes Fed chairman

In December 1986, the Federal Reserve Board, which has regulatory jurisdiction over banking, reinterprets Section 20 of the Glass-Steagall Act, which bars commercial banks from being "engaged principally" in securities business, deciding that banks can have up to 5 percent of gross revenues from investment banking business. The Fed Board then permits Bankers Trust, a commercial bank, to engage in certain commercial paper (unsecured, short-term credit) transactions. In the Bankers Trust decision, the Board concludes that the phrase "engaged principally" in Section 20 allows banks to do a small amount of underwriting, so long as it does not become a large portion of revenue. This is the first time the Fed reinterprets Section 20 to allow some previously prohibited activities.
In the spring of 1987, the Federal Reserve Board votes 3-2 in favor of easing regulations under Glass-Steagall Act, overriding the opposition of Chairman Paul Volcker. The vote comes after the Fed Board hears proposals from Citicorp, J.P. Morgan and Bankers Trust advocating the loosening of Glass-Steagall restrictions to allow banks to handle several underwriting businesses, including commercial paper, municipal revenue bonds, and mortgage-backed securities. Thomas Theobald, then vice chairman of Citicorp, argues that three "outside checks" on corporate misbehavior had emerged since 1933: "a very effective" SEC; knowledgeable investors, and "very sophisticated" rating agencies. Volcker is unconvinced, and expresses his fear that lenders will recklessly lower loan standards in pursuit of lucrative securities offerings and market bad loans to the public. For many critics, it boiled down to the issue of two different cultures - a culture of risk which was the securities business, and a culture of protection of deposits which was the culture of banking.
In March 1987, the Fed approves an application by Chase Manhattan to engage in underwriting commercial paper, applying the same reasoning as in the 1986 Bankers Trust decision, and in April it issues an order outlining its rationale. While the Board remains sensitive to concerns about mixing commercial banking and underwriting, it states its belief that the original Congressional intent of "principally engaged" allowed for some securities activities. The Fed also indicates that it will raise the limit from 5 percent to 10 percent of gross revenues at some point in the future. The Board believes the new reading of Section 20 will increase competition and lead to greater convenience and increased efficiency.
In August 1987, Alan Greenspan -- formerly a director of J.P. Morgan and a proponent of banking deregulation -- becomes chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. One reason Greenspan favors greater deregulation is to help U.S. banks compete with big foreign institutions.


1989-1990Further loosening of Glass-Steagall

In January 1989, the Fed Board approves an application by J.P. Morgan, Chase Manhattan, Bankers Trust, and Citicorp to expand the Glass-Steagall loophole to include dealing in debt and equity securities in addition to municipal securities and commercial paper. This marks a large expansion of the activities considered permissible under Section 20, because the revenue limit for underwriting business is still at 5 percent. Later in 1989, the Board issues an order raising the limit to 10 percent of revenues, referring to the April 1987 order for its rationale.
In 1990, J.P. Morgan becomes the first bank to receive permission from the Federal Reserve to underwrite securities, so long as its underwriting business does not exceed the 10 percent limit.


1980s-90sCongress repeatedly tries and fails to repeal Glass-Steagall

In 1984 and 1988, the Senate passes bills that would lift major restrictions under Glass-Steagall, but in each case the House blocks passage. In 1991, the Bush administration puts forward a repeal proposal, winning support of both the House and Senate Banking Committees, but the House again defeats the bill in a full vote. And in 1995, the House and Senate Banking Committees approve separate versions of legislation to get rid of Glass-Steagall, but conference negotiations on a compromise fall apart.
Attempts to repeal Glass-Steagall typically pit insurance companies, securities firms, and large and small banks against one another, as factions of these industries engage in turf wars in Congress over their competing interests and over whether the Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department and the Comptroller of the Currency should be the primary banking regulator.


1996-1997Fed renders Glass-Steagall effectively obsolete

In December 1996, with the support of Chairman Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Board issues a precedent-shattering decision permitting bank holding companies to own investment bank affiliates with up to 25 percent of their business in securities underwriting (up from 10 percent).
This expansion of the loophole created by the Fed's 1987 reinterpretation of Section 20 of Glass-Steagall effectively renders Glass-Steagall obsolete. Virtually any bank holding company wanting to engage in securities business would be able to stay under the 25 percent limit on revenue. However, the law remains on the books, and along with the Bank Holding Company Act, does impose other restrictions on banks, such as prohibiting them from owning insurance-underwriting companies.
In August 1997, the Fed eliminates many restrictions imposed on "Section 20 subsidiaries" by the 1987 and 1989 orders. The Board states that the risks of underwriting had proven to be "manageable," and says banks would have the right to acquire securities firms outright.
In 1997, Bankers Trust (now owned by Deutsche Bank) buys the investment bank Alex. Brown & Co., becoming the first U.S. bank to acquire a securities firm.


1997Sandy Weill tries to merge Travelers and J.P. Morgan; acquires Salomon Brothers

In the summer of 1997, Sandy Weill, then head of Travelers insurance company, seeks and nearly succeeds in a merger with J.P. Morgan (before J.P. Morgan merged with Chemical Bank), but the deal collapses at the last minute. In the fall of that year, Travelers acquires the Salomon Brothers investment bank for $9 billion. (Salomon then merges with the Travelers-owned Smith Barney brokerage firm to become Salomon Smith Barney.)


April 1998Weill and John Reed announce Travelers-Citicorp merger

At a dinner in Washington in February 1998, Sandy Weill of Travelers invites Citicorp's John Reed to his hotel room at the Park Hyatt and proposes a merger. In March, Weill and Reed meet again, and at the end of two days of talks, Reed tells Weill, "Let's do it, partner!"
On April 6, 1998, Weill and Reed announce a $70 billion stock swap merging Travelers (which owned the investment house Salomon Smith Barney) and Citicorp (the parent of Citibank), to create Citigroup Inc., the world's largest financial services company, in what was the biggest corporate merger in history.
The transaction would have to work around regulations in the Glass-Steagall and Bank Holding Company acts governing the industry, which were implemented precisely to prevent this type of company: a combination of insurance underwriting, securities underwriting, and commecial banking. The merger effectively gives regulators and lawmakers three options: end these restrictions, scuttle the deal, or force the merged company to cut back on its consumer offerings by divesting any business that fails to comply with the law.
Weill meets with Alan Greenspan and other Federal Reserve officials before the announcement to sound them out on the merger, and later tells the Washington Post that Greenspan had indicated a "positive response." In their proposal, Weill and Reed are careful to structure the merger so that it conforms to the precedents set by the Fed in its interpretations of Glass-Steagall and the Bank Holding Company Act.
Unless Congress changed the laws and relaxed the restrictions, Citigroup would have two years to divest itself of the Travelers insurance business (with the possibility of three one-year extensions granted by the Fed) and any other part of the business that did not conform with the regulations. Citigroup is prepared to make that promise on the assumption that Congress would finally change the law -- something it had been trying to do for 20 years -- before the company would have to divest itself of anything.
Citicorp and Travelers quietly lobby banking regulators and government officials for their support. In late March and early April, Weill makes three heads-up calls to Washington: to Fed Chairman Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and President Clinton. On April 5, the day before the announcement, Weill and Reed make a ceremonial call on Clinton to brief him on the upcoming announcement.
The Fed gives its approval to the Citicorp-Travelers merger on Sept. 23. The Fed's press release indicates that "the Board's approval is subject to the conditions that Travelers and the combined organization, Citigroup, Inc., take all actions necessary to conform the activities and investments of Travelers and all its subsidiaries to the requirements of the Bank Holding Company Act in a manner acceptable to the Board, including divestiture as necessary, within two years of consummation of the proposal. ... The Board's approval also is subject to the condition that Travelers and Citigroup conform the activities of its companies to the requirements of the Glass-Steagall Act."


1998-1999Intense new lobbying effort to repeal Glass-Steagall

Following the merger announcement on April 6, 1998, Weill immediately plunges into a public-relations and lobbying campaign for the repeal of Glass-Steagall and passage of new financial services legislation (what becomes the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999). One week before the Citibank-Travelers deal was announced, Congress had shelved its latest effort to repeal Glass-Steagall. Weill cranks up a new effort to revive bill.
Weill and Reed have to act quickly for both business and political reasons. Fears that the necessary regulatory changes would not happen in time had caused the share prices of both companies to fall. The House Republican leadership indicates that it wants to enact the measure in the current session of Congress. While the Clinton administration generally supported Glass-Steagall "modernization," but there are concerns that mid-term elections in the fall could bring in Democrats less sympathetic to changing the laws.
In May 1998, the House passes legislation by a vote of 214 to 213 that allows for the merging of banks, securities firms, and insurance companies into huge financial conglomerates. And in September, the Senate Banking Committee votes 16-2 to approve a compromise bank overhaul bill. Despite this new momentum, Congress is yet again unable to pass final legislation before the end of its session.
As the push for new legislation heats up, lobbyists quip that raising the issue of financial modernization really signals the start of a fresh round of political fund-raising. Indeed, in the 1997-98 election cycle, the finance, insurance, and real estate industries (known as the FIRE sector), spends more than $200 million on lobbying and makes more than $150 million in political donations. Campaign contributions are targeted to members of Congressional banking committees and other committees with direct jurisdiction over financial services legislation.


Oct.-Nov. 1999Congress passes Financial Services Modernization Act

After 12 attempts in 25 years, Congress finally repeals Glass-Steagall, rewarding financial companies for more than 20 years and $300 million worth of lobbying efforts. Supporters hail the change as the long-overdue demise of a Depression-era relic.
On Oct. 21, with the House-Senate conference committee deadlocked after marathon negotiations, the main sticking point is partisan bickering over the bill's effect on the Community Reinvestment Act, which sets rules for lending to poor communities. Sandy Weill calls President Clinton in the evening to try to break the deadlock after Senator Phil Gramm, chairman of the Banking Committee, warned Citigroup lobbyist Roger Levy that Weill has to get White House moving on the bill or he would shut down the House-Senate conference. Serious negotiations resume, and a deal is announced at 2:45 a.m. on Oct. 22. Whether Weill made any difference in precipitating a deal is unclear.
On Oct. 22, Weill and John Reed issue a statement congratulating Congress and President Clinton, including 19 administration officials and lawmakers by name. The House and Senate approve a final version of the bill on Nov. 4, and Clinton signs it into law later that month.
Just days after the administration (including the Treasury Department) agrees to support the repeal, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, the former co-chairman of a major Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs, raises eyebrows by accepting a top job at Citigroup as Weill's chief lieutenant. The previous year, Weill had called Secretary Rubin to give him advance notice of the upcoming merger announcement. When Weill told Rubin he had some important news, the secretary reportedly quipped, "You're buying the government?"

Sources: FRONTLINE's interviews for "The Wall Street Fix" and published reports by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Time, Fortune, Business Week, and other publications.