Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Chinese investors and techies inflating global real estate

I know we're probably tired of the cliched lamenting over "the good old days", but this NYT piece by a CA author describes the boom-and-bust cycle of "CA dreaming" since the Gold Rush. One generation feels like the prevailing dream is dead, but then a new dream comes to take its place.

But what about now, as our state is more constrained than ever (economically, environmentally, maybe culturally)? The inclusive middle class, environmentally-sustainable (if it ever was) CA dream seems to be in jeopardy now, replaced by the "tech dream" that only a small subset of wealthy folks can enjoy, and constant environmental crises (that the rich can mostly insulate themselves from). Of course the top earners in medicine, entertainment, finance, etc. can still partake in the dream; contrary to media hype, tech is only like 10-15% of CA's workforce and GDP. But we don't need CA to be a bunch of high-end condos, yoga studios, "$20 burger" foodie joints, plus the old suburban infrastructure (golf courses, Costcos, 5BR McMansions) grandfathered in - when the tech yuppies want to leave SF to get more space. There's more to CA than that, otherwise what's the point of paying the high prices to experience it?
Top schools ostensibly lead to top salaries, which lets your kids afford to live in the top school districts later and continue your legacy. But why is there such inequality in public schools that creates real estate bubbles in the neighborhoods near the best schools? What kind of "free society" do we have when some schools have metal detectors and 1990s computers, and some schools are like this?

I don't mean to be like "woe is me, my life is so hard." I'm not happy with some aspects of my situation, but I'm trying to keep perspective. What's scary is a big % of Americans have it much tougher, in CA and elsewhere. So what is the solution? Clearly it doesn't have to be this way, and there are many "mid-cap" cities that have a great rep for affordability, quality of life, and good jobs/schools (SLC, Raleigh-Durham, Denver, etc.). They make it work without being socialist. But it's just a shame that CA, the most populous and most economically important state, is becoming an exclusive country club with an entrance fee of $300K household income. "This land is your/my land," remember? Can't we do a better job sharing and making things easier for those with fewer resources (especially as our resources are further strained by environmental problems and gov't failures)?

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I foresee housing and land as a large problem in the future, more so than now.  People want to live near where they work.  And culture and food and art follows the places where people live and have money.  So desirable living areas will always be clumpy.  California just happens to be very desirable for a variety of reasons so I can't see a way to get these problems resolved.  And ultimately there will be a distribution of incomes available to people in these areas.  People have a very hard time voting in poor people into their neighborhoods by mandate and capitalism won't provide for them when demand exceeds supply.  Not sure I have any solutions but to say that your (and my) situation is in some objective sense terrific.  To be able to, but not easily, afford to live in a world city, raise a family, take vacations, you are a global elite.  But as you noted, locally you are a B- so it is hard to feel as good as you should.  I think if you consider only asian households you are more like a C+ haha.

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Yeah that is true, but I think a common complaint is that the high prices are forcing out the "traditional" artists and culturalists from SF, so all you have left are the wealthy consumers and capitalists.

An over the top documentary about it from Pelosi's daughter: Alexandra Pelosi on RT w Bill Maher -- Destructio…: http://youtu.be/ksTRKwCDCLM

Haha in Asian households, B- = whipping and C+ = sent to foster care!

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http://m.sfgate.com/news/article/Million-Dollar-Shack-documentary-Bay-Area-housing-6582122.php

First time I heard of the "ghost house" term referring to empty homes
that investors just bought to park their cash, but didn't bother to
rent out. You can guess where most of the investors are from. I wonder
what % of prime BA cities' housing stocks are affected. Probably
small, but enough to affect prices.

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This apparently has been going on in certain neighborhoods in London and other world cities for a while.  A product of Chinese money disallowed from buying stocks and the poor bond returns.  Can't blame them for finding the opportunity but it is hurting the locals.

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Agreed, it's legal, but it's making the median home price in Vancouver rise to $1.5MM (c'mon, Vanc. is nice but not that nice). According to that video, it's happening all over the Pac. Rim (NZ, AUS, SEA, SoCal), and I guess the desirable parts of Europe too (I guess Russians, Saudis, Emiratis, etc. are doing the same, but there are fewer such buyers).

This seems to be another global consequence of China's social-economic policies. Unlike the US, where ~50% of households own some stock (which is still way too low considering the ROI), for China it's like under 20% - maybe this is driven by the unproven (some might say corrupt) nature of their markets, and the cultural tendencies of Chinese to put their savings in cash or physical assets. So if retirement was more secure in China (better kids:parent ratio, more functional equities markets, gov't safety net), maybe there would be less demand for foreign property. And if Chinese are using illicit funds to buy real estate, then I also fault Beijing for not enforcing the laws and regs to make that harder to pull off. And I also fault parties in the US for not checking where the foreign buyers' funds came from. As you know, to get approved for a mortgage we practically have to sacrifice our firstborn, but it's all-cash home purchase, no questions asked.

But I assume that only the wealthiest 10% of Chinese have the funds to buy overseas real estate anyway - though 10% of China is still a shitload of buyers. This is offensive and I'm just joking, but sometimes I miss the '80s when the US and Western Europe were the only rich nations, and Japan was the only rising economic power to worry about. :)

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I think in China the basic idea is that land is something you can physically own and see with your own eyes. Chinese people (well people everywhere, but maybe moreso in China) feel that it isn't too hard to be an amateur expert in property prices - that you can beat the market basically. Finally, property prices are perceived to be relatively stable compared to other forms of investment.
Compare that with stocks, where who knows how to value anything. Stock markets in China are basically thought of as gambling markets (actually not too far off....), whereas property investment is the slow and steady, tried and true investment strategy. Everyone understands (or thinks they understand) real estate markets. Understanding stock markets is not something that the average Chinese person has much experience in.

Additionally, for very wealthy Chinese there is the idea that you want a property (or perhaps multiple) overseas where you can escape if things get bad in China. The Chinese don't like pollution any more than we do and most realize that overseas places are a lot nicer than most cities in China.

Finally, getting permission to convert money into foreign currency is a lot easier if you're buying property than if you're buying stocks.

Of course, the smart strategy would be to invest in low-cost index funds in a Vanguard coop account, but I guess Vanguard's marketing team hasn't made too many inroads in China yet :-P

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These days it seems that very little in the Chinese economy is slow and steady :P - they had a major RE bubble too with levels of speculation likely exceeding those of US-CAN. I could sympathize if the average Chinese person doesn't have a lot of good options for capital gains to save for their retirement, but I assume that it's the top 10% who are the ones buying most of the foreign property (i.e. the average Chinese can't pay $1.5MM cash for a CA condo).

I don't know if funds/pensions are very popular in China, but that overcomes the investor ignorance problem. Most Westerners have no idea about equities too, but at least they leave it in the hands of pros and pay them a commission (this strategy only screws them every decade or so with a widespread financial crisis :). And as you said, you can lower risk by diversifying (equities tend to outperform REITs and most single properties in the long term).

So there is a difference between a justifiable need for financial security, and greed. I am not sure what category most Chinese overseas RE buyers are, maybe both, but probably skews towards greed. That is legal but unfortunate in my book. And of course the same can be said of domestic speculators.

There is some harm in speculators manipulating the price of securities or silver. But then again, most people aren't paid directly from capital gains (except pensioners and rich fund mgrs). But if people are inflating the prices of life necessities, like oil, water, and housing - then it's a bigger deal. Like when oil rose to $120+ a barrel, some were saying that this wasn't the speculators' fault - it was just normal supply and demand. Maybe so, but it's pretty hard to precisely pin down causality in market price, which is of course an aggregation of many factors. But huge inflation in inelastic goods tends to hurt many but only benefit few.

Bottom line, I wish people would at least buy homes with the intent to use them, or make them available to those who need them. I understand that not all of us are "entitled" to an affordable picket-fence place with a 5 mile commute. It would be nice, but there is always going to be inequality in housing. Though I think we are at pretty bad levels in most of the economic centers of the world.

BTW - if you made it to the end of that YT video, you saw that horrendous quote from the real estate mogul d-bag with the Rolls. Something like, "I think a Googler working hard is more deserving of a home in Si Valley than someone who happened to grow up here. Just get more education if you want it." Yeah, as if the issue is that cut and dried. Hard work and edu is all you need to be a millionaire in CA, sure. It doesn't need further comment - but you are all welcome to vent. :)


Friday, June 6, 2014

Some good links

A pretty impressive study about reparations for blacks, highlighting the pernicious effects of housing inequality on top of the more familiar US racist policies: http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2014/05/the-case-for-reparations/361631/
Plenty of GOP lawmakers urged the White House to get Bergdahl back at any cost before recently changing their minds: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/03/bowe-bergdahl-release_n_5439644.html
A former Bush admin. security adviser: "Sometime in the next couple of years, whether it's in the beginning of 2015 or shortly thereafter, this conflict in Afghanistan is winding down, and we would be required, at least under the traditional laws of war, to return people that we've detained in that conflict," he said. "So it seems in this case, we've gotten -- we traded them for reasonable deal here."

Saturday, November 9, 2013

The SF Bay Area housing crisis



http://blogs.kqed.org/newsfix/2013/10/30/kqed-launches-priced-out-the-high-cost-of-housing-in-the-bay-area/


This is probably he most important social issue for the area. It's strange that SF has a proud history of inclusion (and a pretty good record in overall today), but this housing crisis is driven by exclusion and privilege, not necessarily "normal economics."
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Well if you average the entire Bay Area, places like Brentwood and Antioch will bring down the average. But SF is #3 priciest per sq. ft. in the US behind NYC and HNL. Versus the whole world, SF is not that bad, but real estate is really messed up in older, more cramped cities in the EU and Asia.

http://curbed.com/archives/2011/09/27/heres-a-chart-of-the-worlds-cities-by-price-per-square-foot.php

It's not even about rent vs. own. Renting is very pricey too, obviously. I think one aspect of the problem is that landlords are taking rent-controlled (or regular) units off the market in order to convert them to TIC/condos for more $, or sell the whole bldg to speculators because there is no much insane pent-up demand and high willingness to pay from the upper classes. So rental supply is going down, which causes rents to rise too.
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If you hit Wikipedia for median income by city in ca you'll find that those areas are also quite rich.  Housing doesn't happen in a vacuum.  More a function of income and the real problem is income inequality
It also happens with respect to density. The more houses/apartments available = the cheaper the rent. Nimbys in the Bay Area would like to still have their .5 acre ranch houses on some of the most valuable land on earth, meaning that the poors have to live 2 hours commute from their jobs.
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Totally agree. The social justice element also comes into play that historically lower income, blue collar, often minority neighborhoods (Mission, Castro, etc.) used to be less desirable for yuppies and therefore more affordable and off the radar of speculators. But now they are hipster paradises, and with gentrification, the "traditional residents" can't even maintain their old lives and are priced out of the market. I guess that is like economic eminent domain.

Measures like rent control or mandated affordable housing are often economically inefficient and flawed (because they are written and implemented by flawed bureaucrats, like healthcare.gov), but sometime optimal economics must take a back seat to concerns about fairness and social values (see taxes, labor laws). I'd rather have confusing rent control laws and too high minimum wage than a total lack of regulation (at least imperfect laws are a springboard for iteration and improvement). Because as you said, with the huge inequality gap, what is the point for the poorest 60% to struggle so hard trying to fit into the rich man's world (yet not really be allowed to live in the rich man's world... I guess like the "Elysium" plot, which I did not see)? Most people with a shred of heart would probably agree that there is something inherently unjust with greedy politicians/companies and wealthy invaders "annexing" and developing suddenly desirable land, which leads to the economic eviction of the residents who were there before (through legal market mechanisms and the landlords/property owners). Pardon my melodrama, but it's scarily similar to the Trail of Tears.
I heard an interview about the subject a while back, and one new SF resident and tech employee said something like, "Assholes (his word) like me can afford $3K/1BR rent and are making it hard on the previous residents, but hey, I want to live here." At least he had clear eyes. It's just sad because everyone has one life to live, and we don't want to compromise or suffer if we don't have to - even at cost to others (esp. when others' suffering at our hands is mostly invisible). Sorry for stereotyping, but I think the Gen X-ers and Millennials especially (present company excluded) really fixate on what I like to call "life maximization." Similar to their work habits of optimizing, achieving, and disrupting everything, in life they want it their way and they want it all. Best job, best home, best network, best gear, best marathon time, best family... best, best, best. When that is not really the goal but the status quo expectation in SF/Si Valley (when excellent becomes average/normal, what do all the sub-excellent people do?), then that doesn't really encourage a culture of togetherness and SHARING. We don't need the best life... can't we just enjoy our regular life? Isn't enough enough? Can I give a little up and still live a plenty comfy life so that more needy people can get a break? People don't ask these questions of themselves enough (myself included).

Sharing is the key I think. This isn't my world, it's our world. There is PLENTY of food, money, and room for everyone if we share reasonably, but the problem is the fucking 1% and the institutions who advocate for them just don't want to (and don't have to). Americans and some other cultures really fixate on fencing off what's yours and amassing/diving the pie, so that breeds an adversarial, zero-sum attitude that conservatives really eat up. Therefore, it's especially sad when educated, young, open-minded "liberal" West Coast people do the same and may not even realize it. At least liberals don't bad-mouth and hate the people they marginalize, but that doesn't leave them in the clear (myself included).
The best teachers I have had in my life (not necessarily in school) really cared about expanding the pie rather than dividing it. How can we make everyone happier? Any asshole with a bit of smarts can compete and beat others. But a truly smart, wise person goes out of his/her way to cooperate, find ways to align incentives, and make everyone better off - not just him/herself. For all the smug talent and genius brains and big money in the Bay, that skill is scarily absent. Don't get me wrong, some people practice it faithfully and I am in awe of them, but it's not enough to stem the tide. That's why I probably will leave this place next year, as much as it makes me sad and for all I am leaving behind. I don't want my kid to grow up in such a culture. At least I will make room for another person/family to have my stressful job and little slice of condo.
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Sorry I realize that I was unclear about one point in my last rant (unclear about at least one point, haha).
The Google buses are often scapegoats but not really the problem. By no means am I placing the bulk of the blame on the young, techie hipsters invading the Bay. They are not really the 1% and not the real driver of the problem, they are just a "symptom". Except for Zuck who bought a whole block of SF for privacy haha.
As usual, the problem is the old rich Nimby fucks that A alluded to. They are the ones who gobbled up all the choice land decades ago, and who currently occupy all the seats of political power and business influence. They are the ones who invested/profited from the tech boom (more than the current workforce), and stand to profit from real estate development and appreciation. They took so much that the current hipsters are practically forced to gentrify the Mission and maybe Hunter's Point soon. I bet most hipsters would much rather live in Nob Hill or downtown Paly, but all the old rich pricks there are just cramping their style anyway (and even a Twitter engineer still can't afford a $5M Nob Hill pad).
As A alluded to, we are not in the '50s Levittowns anymore, or not even in the '90s nouveau-riche gated golf communities. But the assholes want to keep us in the past, because they like the status and lifestyle they have, and don't want to give up even a shred to others. The city of Paris (and many other ancient cities) is like a 10-layer cake. New generations tear down the old crap that isn't working anymore and rebuild to fit the needs of the current people. We aren't really doing that, because the old fossils control the bulldozers. So all we have is SF Elysium vs. Vallejo. 

But "the people" are fighting back, and at least voted down a luxury condo development on the Embarcadero. It's a small victory in a long war that the good guys will almost certainly lose. But we might as well smoke a blunt and celebrate while we can. :)

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/nevius/article/Following-the-bankroll-for-SF-s-Propositions-B-C-4961999.php
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=243537913&ft=1&f=2&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NprProgramsATC+%28NPR+Programs%3A+All+Things+Considered%29&utm_content=Yahoo+Search+Results 
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i once heard someone say cities are either places to live or places people come to make money.  he was talking about SF and that we were at a crossroads.  it was when matt gonzalez was running for mayor against gavin Newsome.  The speaker was making the case that if Newsome wins, the city will lose its soul, it's artist community, it's diversity of culture and class.  that's what you're looking at here….plain and simple.  and, you know what?  the city sucks now.  It's filled with people who are in a hurry, who lay on their horns, who yell.  

Friday, May 30, 2008

More causes to the subprime crisis, but why do we always find out too late?

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90840958

Auditor: Supervisors Covered Up Risky Loans
by Chris Arnold

Morning Edition, May 27, 2008 · Now that millions of people are facing foreclosure because they got into loans that never should have been approved, everybody's looking for someone to blame. Borrowers, or their brokers, lied on loan applications. Others got high interest rates they couldn't afford.
A big unanswered question is whether the Wall Street investment banks that were packaging these mortgages knew they were selling garbage loans to investors. A wave of litigation is starting against these firms. One former worker whose job was to catch bad loans says her supervisors covered them up.
Mortgage Quality Control
Tracy Warren is not surprised by the foreclosure crisis. She saw the roots of it firsthand every day. She worked for a quality-control contractor that reviewed subprime loans for investment banks before they were sold off on Wall Street.
It was her job to dig into the loans and ferret out problems. By 2006, they were easy to find.
"I'd see people who were hotel workers saying that they made, in California, making $15,000 a month so that they could qualify for a $500,000 home," Warren says. "If a hotel worker is making $15,000 a month changing sheets at the Days Inn, everybody would want to do it. It just really made no sense."

Warren has worked in the mortgage business for 25 years, the past five in quality control. Most recently, she was a contract worker for a company called Watterson-Prime, which did loan audits for investment banks. She says their biggest client was Bear Stearns, which recently all but collapsed because of its exposure to bad loans.
Putting Bad Apples Back in the Barrel
Warren thinks her supervisors didn't want her to do her job. She says that when she would reject, or kick out, a loan, they usually would overrule her and approve it.
"The QC reviewer who reviewed our kicks would say, 'Well, I thought it had merit.' And it was like 'What?' Their credit score was below 580. And if it was an income verification, a lot of times they weren't making the income. And it was like, 'What kind of merit could you have determined?' And they were like, 'Oh, it's fine. Don't worry about it.' "
After a while, Warren says, her supervisors stopped telling her when she had been overruled. She figured it out by going back later and pulling the loans up on her computer.
"I would look every couple of days, and just see, if it was a loan that I thought was a bad loan, I'd go back and see if it was pulled."
About 75 percent of the time, loans that should have been rejected were still put into the pool and sold, she says.
'A Smoking Gun'
Some legal experts say it's a pretty big deal that people like Warren are willing to talk.
"This is a smoking gun," says Christopher Peterson, a law professor at the University of Utah who has been studying the subprime mess and meeting with regulators. "It suggests that auditors working for Wall Street investment bankers knew how preposterous these loans were, and that could mean Wall Street liability for aiding and abetting fraud."
Bear Stearns had no comment.
The loan-auditing firm Watterson-Prime's parent company, Fidelity National Information Services, provided a statement. It says the company has no incentive to give loans a passing review if they fail to meet underwriting criteria and that it uses additional quality-control measures to further check up on loan reviews.

But Peterson says such breakdowns in quality control must have happened at a lot of companies. How else did millions of people wind up in loans that they can't pay?
"People have a tendency to think about economic trends as though they're an uncontrollable force that no one understands. This isn't the weather. These are people who are individually making decisions to approve and pass on fraudulent loans," he says.
Accountability on Wall Street
Peterson said auditors like Warren basically were hired to find the bad apples in the barrel and pull them out: borrowers with payments they couldn't afford, houses with inflated appraisals, people lying about their income.
But Warren says her bosses were taking a lot of those bad apples and putting them back in. And Peterson says he thinks the investment banks had a strong financial incentive to do that.
"They put the bad apples back in the barrel because they knew that they could sell the bad apples along with the good apples and, at least in the short term, nobody would know the difference. That's why they put them back in — because they made more money that way," Peterson says.
"There's a name for this — it's called 'passing the trash,' " says David Grais, an attorney getting ready to sue Wall Street firms on behalf of investors — big pension funds and others — who bought the bad loans.
"These were immensely profitable deals. One study showed that the investment banks were making a 40 percent return on equity every two months on these securitizations, which is an eye-popping number," he says.
Grais says many people on Wall Street make huge bonuses when their business unit is making big money. So the faster they could package up loans — good, bad or ugly ones — and sell them to investors, the more money that they made, he says.
Warren thinks her managers got bonuses for how quickly they reviewed loans, not for how many bad loans they caught.

Watterson-Prime disputes that. It says its managers, staff and contractors are compensated on an hourly or salary basis and never by the number of loans reviewed.
Report: Banks Agreed to Limit Loan Rejections
Other evidence is emerging.
A bankruptcy examiner in the case of the collapsed subprime lender New Century recently released a 500-page report, and buried inside it is a pretty interesting detail. According to the report, some investment banks agreed to reject only 2.5 percent of the loans that New Century sent them to package up and sell to investors.
If that's true, it would be like saying no matter how many bad apples are in the barrel, only a tiny fraction of them will be rejected.
"It's amazing if any investment bank agreed to a maximum number of loans they would kick back for defects. That means that they were willing to accept junk. There's no other way to put it," says Kurt Eggert, a law professor at Chapman University.
Meanwhile, the attorney general in New York and other prosecutors are taking a look at all of this. They, too, want to know whether Wall Street firms were covering up bad loans and selling them to investors.
Analysis: Lenders, Investors, Buyers Fed Loan Crisis
by Robert Smith and Adam Davidson

Morning Edition, May 27, 2008 · Co-host Robert Smith talks to NPR's Adam Davidson about how lenders, investors and buyers all contributed to the subprime mortgage crisis.

Davidson says everyone at every step of the chain acted irresponsibly, "taking on way more risk than was appropriate." He says he has interviewed dozens of homeowners, subprime home buyers who bought way more house than they could afford, who said they knew they were taking on more risk than was reasonable. And the mortgage brokers and mortgage banks knew, too.
Brokers didn't mind the extreme risk because they were passing on loans quickly to the banks; banks didn't mind because they were passing on the loans to Wall Street. Wall Street knew about the extreme risk but was passing it on to global investors, many of whom said they weren't paying enough attention because they trusted the credit rating agencies — but now those agencies admit that their models were flawed and faulty, Davidson says.
Many thought the reward would outweigh the risk, he says. Everyone "was making massive amounts of money — you're talking about 25-year-old kids who don't have a college degree making over a million a year."
Shady Practices Led to New Century Financial's Fall
by Carrie Kahn

Morning Edition, March 27, 2008 · Two years ago, New Century Financial was the country's second largest subprime mortgage lender. Now, it's in bankruptcy, and a new report mandated by the bankruptcy court shines light on the company's shady practices.


Business

New Century's Risky Lending Practices Detailed
by Chris Arnold

All Things Considered, March 26, 2008 · Before the mortgage company New Century went bankrupt last year, it was the second-largest sub-prime lender in the country. A court-appointed examiner released a new report Wednesday that finds widespread wrongdoing at the company and also alleges negligence by the company's auditor KPMG.
The report says New Century had a brazen obsession with selling more loans without due regard to the risks.
Michael J. Missal, the examiner appointed to dig into New Century's collapse as part of the bankruptcy process, says, "What we found was it really shows the embryo of the credit crisis and how easy it was to originate very risky loans and put them into the financial system."
In its quest for new customers, New Century made increasingly unwise loans, according to the report. Borrowers incomes weren't documented. Loans were offered for the full value of a house. Missal adds, "They took risky products — made them that much riskier — and essentially created a ticking time bomb that exploded in 2007 as the market was changing."
Missal was also charged with finding causes for lawsuits that creditors might pursue. He named New Century's accounting firm, KPMG:
"Their independent auditors, KPMG, were supposed to be there to test and be skeptical of the way New Century was doing business. I found that KPMG failed to do so and a cause of action may exist."
A spokesman for KPMG says the report needs to be reviewed.

Missal says executives at New Century also failed in their oversight responsibilities and engaged in improper accounting. He says top executives were paid millions of dollars in bonuses that were calculated based on inaccurate financial statements.
The SEC and Department of Justice are both investigating New Century.
A Lot of Blame to Share in Subprime Sinkhole
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=12847198

All Things Considered, August 16, 2007 · Robert Siegel talks with Financial Times reporter Saskia Scholtes about the article "As Subprime Bites, U.S. Investigators Look for Culprits."
Scholtes, and colleague Brooke Masters, found fraud at myriad levels of the market, from borrowers who overstate their incomes, to fraudulent companies that offer help to lie about income, to lenders who don't bother to check.
As subprime bites, US investigators look for culprits
By Brooke Masters and Saskia Scholtes
Wednesday Aug 8 2007 14:05

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto080820071539268198
At the height of the US subprime lending boom, taking out a mortgage   could not have been easier. Low credit score and history of bankruptcy? No problem. Income too low to qualify for a mortgage? Inflate what you earn on a "stated income" loan. Nervous that your lender might check up on your "stated income"? Visit www.verifyemployment.net.
For a $55 fee, the operators of this small California company will help you get a loan by employing you as an "independent contractor". They provide payslips as "proof" of income and, for an additional $25, they also man the telephones to give you a glowing reference should your lender need it.
But perhaps the most absurd aspect of the US subprime mortgage market in recent years is that lenders became so generous with credit provision for out-of-pocket borrowers that very few checks were ever made.
That left the system extraordinarily vulnerable to widespread fraud, a possibility that federal and state prosecutors across the US have begun to look into. With the subprime crisis expected to cost investors between $50bn (£24bn, €36bn) and $100bn, according to the US Federal Reserve, these investigations could transform it from a market correction to a full-blown national scandal.
At the root of the subprime problem was easy credit: lenders and their brokers were often rewarded for generating new mortgages on the basis of volume, without being directly exposed to the consequences of borrowers defaulting. During several years of strong capital markets and strong investor appetite for high-yielding securities, lenders became accustomed to easily selling the risky home loans they made to Wall Street banks. The banks in turn packaged them into securities and sold them to investors around the globe.
Such ease of mortgage funding allowed thousands of borrowers to get away with fraudulently mis-stating their incomes, often with the encouragement of their brokers. More ambitious fraudsters appear to have taken out multiple mortgages and walked away with the cash.
Karen Gelernt, a partner at law firm Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, says: "The difficulty is getting a handle on the size of the problem, because there is no real mechanism for reporting fraud for most originators in this market. In fact, they had every incentive not to report."
Fraud has been detected up and down the financing chain: just as borrowers have lied to get better rates and larger loans, mortgage brokers and loan officers have lied to borrowers about the terms of their loans and may also have lied to the banks about the qualifications of the borrowers. Appraisers, likewise, have lied about the value of the properties involved.
"The recent rapid expansion of the subprime market was clearly accompanied by deterioration in underwriting standards and, in some cases, by abusive lending practices and outright fraud," Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, recently told lawmakers. With mortgage rates rising and house prices falling, subprime borrowers have been defaulting at record rates.
The fallout is working its way up from the retail level – forcing people out of their homes and lenders into bankruptcy. Investment banks have lost revenue as investors back away from mortgage securities and a handful of high-profile hedge funds have collapsed – most notably two highly leveraged funds managed by
Bear Stearns (NYSE:BSC) . The crisis has contributed to turmoil in financial markets in recent weeks and could threaten the health of the US economy as lenders tighten access to credit, putting a drag on consumer spending.
For some, this rapid and dramatic unravelling of the subprime lending industry has echoes of the costly savings and loans crisis of the early 1980s – a meltdown that also had its origins in financial market innovation and inadequate oversight, and which many cite as a contributing factor in the 1990-91 economic recession. That crisis ended with a federal bail-out of $150bn and a handful of high-profile convictions for fraud.
This time around, the major losers have been hedge funds, which in theory are limited to wealthy investors. But some analysts believe the pain could spread – many pension funds and college endowments have turned to hedge funds to heat up their returns and some, including Harvard University, are starting to get their fingers burned. Harvard is estimated to have lost $350m of the $550m it invested in a hedge fund run by Jeffrey Larson, a former Harvard money manager, that collapsed recently as a result of positions related to the subprime market.
If the losses trickle down and end up hurting small investors, pressure may grow for a public bail-out. Rumours swept the market earlier this week that Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage agencies, might get the authority to make sweeping purchases of underpriced mortgage securities.
"The US mortgage landscape has become a top-of-mind political talking point, and we would not be surprised to see the usual 'flow like mud' legislative process fast-tracked with respect to items offering relief to the ­troubled mortgage market," says Louise Purtle, strategist at ­CreditSights, a research firm.

Most fraud in subprime lending appears to have been so-called "fraud for purchase" – lying about income so as to win a mortgage approval. In reviewing a sample of "no doc" loans that relied on borrowers' statements, the Mortgage Asset Research Institute recently found that almost all would-be home owners had exaggerated their income, with almost 60 per cent inflating it by more than 50 per cent.
These fraudulent borrowers are often difficult to uncover, says Ms Gelernt, because they often stretch to meet their minimum payments for some time before they eventually default. The time lag between initial fraud and default also makes a conviction hard to obtain, she adds, while mortgage investors also have little chance of recovering their losses from individual borrowers in these circumstances.
Many of the originators to blame for poor quality control standards may not be held to account either – with several such lenders already in bankruptcy. "There's a real problem in finding fraud after the fact because the money is already out the door and you won't get the recovery," says Ms Gelernt.
Loose lending standards also facilitated fraud for profit. US prosecutors around the country have broken up at least a dozen mortgage fraud rings and more cases are expected.
In one New York case, the FBI charged 26 people who used stolen identities, invented purchasers and inflated appraisals to obtain subprime loans on more than $200m of property. In an Ohio case, 49 per cent of the mortgages processed by a ­single broker never made even a first payment.
The fate of a series of North Carolina neighbourhoods built by Beazer Homes (NYSE:BZH) may offer a foretaste of the looming problem. Low income home-buyers around Charlotte have sued the builder alleging that its lending arm steered them into mortgages they could not afford, leading to widespread foreclosures.

The homeowners allege that sales agents misrepresented their personal data, including assets and income, to help them qualify for government-insured mortgages starting in 2002. By the beginning of this year, 10 Beazer subdivisions in Charlotte had foreclosure rates of 20 per cent or higher, compared with 3 per cent state-wide, according to a local newspaper analysis.
The FBI is probing Beazer for possible fraud and the US Housing and Urban Development is examining whether its sales practices violated government-insured mortgage rules. Beazer has defended its sales practices and says it has a "commitment to managing and conducting business in an honest, ethical and lawful manner". In June it announced that it had fired its chief accounting officer for allegedly attempting to destroy documents. The company's shares have lost 75 per cent of their value since the probes began.
Several state attorneys-general are also on the trail. Andrew Cuomo of New York state made headlines this spring with a series of subpoenas to property appraisal companies and has said publicly that he is probing the entire industry. Sources familiar with the office's work say the investigation is still at a relatively early stage.
Marc Dann, the Ohio attorney- general, is looking further up the funding chain. He has been outspoken in his criticism of the role the financial services industry may have played in the large numbers of foreclosures in his state. "There's a whole series of people that knew or should have known that there was fraud in the acquisition of these mortgages," Mr Dann told the Financial Times. "We're looking at ways to hold everybody who aided and abetted that fraud."
Mr Dann's office is looking at brokers, appraisers, rating agencies and securitisers and plans to use several legal methods to hold bad actors accountable. The Ohio attorney-general not only has criminal enforcement powers, but also represents the third-largest set of public pensions in the country and can thus file civil lawsuits on behalf of investors.

"But for the mechanism of packaging these loans, the fraud never would have existed," Mr Dann says. "We're following this trail from homeowner to bondholder." He says his investigation could take six months to a year to bear fruit.
The Securities and , for its part, is investigating whether Bear Stearns and other hedge fund managers were forthright about disclosing the rapidly declining value of their holdings.
Many of the mortgage-related securities bought by the hedge funds are rarely traded and difficult to value accurately. They are often valued in portfolios according to complex mathematical models because real market prices are not available, making it possible to disguise underperformance if models are not updated.
The SEC has not brought a case in the area so far, but current and former regulators note that it has previously won settlements from several mutual funds and banks that failed to revise the prices of illiquid assets during a falling market.
Private securities lawyers are also starting to file securities fraud lawsuits on behalf of investors who have lost out because of the subprime meltdown.
Jake Zamansky, a lawyer who negotiated an early settlement from Merrill Lynch in the scandal over skewed investment bank research, has filed an arbitration claim against Bear Stearns alleging the firm misled investors about its exposure to the mortgage-backed securities market.
The class action law firm of Bernstein Litowitz is also preparing a claim against Bear Stearns, alleging the firm made material mis-statements in the offering documents for its now defunct hedge funds.
"This was simply about a hedge fund strategy that failed," said a Bear Stearns spokesman. "We plan on defending ourselves vigorously against the allegations in these complaints."
Other hedge funds may also come under political or legal pressure over their role in the loan crisis.
Richard Carnell, a professor at Fordham law school, says it may be possible to hold the investment banks that securitised the mortgages at least partially responsible in the case of a major collapse of the market. "There are two things you can object to in the securitisers' conduct: failing to disclose material facts about the credit quality of the mortgages; and you can also criticise them for acting as an enabler for someone they know is a bad actor," he says.

But putting together a case will not be easy because the hedge funds and other investors who bought such securities are presumed to be sophisticated about financial matters. This means it will be harder for them to prove they were not properly warned about the risks involved.
In the case of the Bear Stearns funds, investors may face new hurdles to recovering any money through US lawsuits. Though the funds operated mostly in New York, they were incorporated in the Cayman Islands and that is where they have filed for bankruptcy. In what could be a test case for international bankruptcy laws, the liquidators have applied to the US courts asking them to block US lawsuits during the liquidation process.
Bear Stearns said in a statement: "Because the two funds are incorporated in the Cayman Islands, the funds' boards filed for liquidation there . . . The return to creditors and investors will be based on the underlying assets and liabilities of the funds not on the location of the filing."
Even if the US lawsuits do go forward, a case pending before the Supreme Court could also prove crucial to investors who hope to make a case that hedge funds and rating agencies enabled widespread fraud.
In Stoneridge Investment Partners v Scientific Atlanta, the court is considering whether investors can recover from firms – including accountants, lawyers and bankers – that help a public company commit fraud by participating in a "scheme to defraud". If the high court rules against "scheme liability", investors who lost money in the subprime market will have very few places to turn to try to get some of it back.
William Poole of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis thinks that this may be what investors who lose money on subprime mortgage-linked securities deserve for not looking at them closely enough.

Criticising Wall Street underwriting standards recently, he said: "The punishment has been meted out to those who have done misdeeds and made bad judgments. We are getting good evidence that the companies and hedge funds that are being hit are the ones who deserve it.''
RISING PRICES OFFSET A BRITISH SUBPRIME SNIFFLE
Last month some of the most senior figures in the UK mortgage industry gathered at London's Royal Albert Hall for a glittering awards dinner, writes Jane Croft.
Entertainment was provided by British comedian Al Murray and a colourful troupe of can-can dancers. But in spite of the celebratory mood, the chatter soon turned to recent findings by the UK's Financial Services Authority on problems with subprime mortgages. The regulator had said it was "very concerned" about "the high level of subprime arrears in a benign market" and had uncovered "weaknesses" in lending practices.
The level of defaults has been much lower than across the Atlantic – partly because the UK subprime market is much smaller, accounting for around 8 per cent of mortgages compared with 20 per cent in the US.
However, a recent report by Standard & Poor's showed overall arrears and repossession rates in the British subprime sector rising. The rating agency's non-conforming Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) index tracks the performance of subprime mortgages securitised into capital markets. It found 10.5 per cent of loans in the first quarter of 2007 were more than 90 days in arrears – up from 7 per cent in 2004.
This is still far below the US, where research by the Centre for predicts that one in five subprime mortgages made in the past two years will end in foreclosure.
A big concern raised by the FSA is whether UK mortgage brokers and lenders are properly assessing how much borrowers can afford to pay back each month. While he acknowledges there are key differences between the US and UK, Clive Briault, managing director of retail markets at the FSA, admitted recently that "we cannot completely ignore the parallels with our own market".

The FSA is also concerned that rising house prices are encouraging some over-indebted borrowers to increase their levels of debt by borrowing against their property.
In its review, the FSA examined 11 lenders and 485 case files at 34 mortgage brokers. It found that in a third of the files, brokers had made an "inadequate assessment" of the customers' ability to afford the loan. It also found failings amongst lenders that resulted in "the approval of potentially unaffordable mortgages".
Figures from the Council of last week showed that home repossessions jumped 30 per cent year-on-year, rising to 14,000 in the first half of 2007. The industry body said some of the increase was due to rising defaults on subprime mortgages. Indeed, a third of the possession hearings in one local study by the Citizens Advice Bureau last year were brought by subprime mortgage lenders.
The buoyancy of the UK market, at least, means there is still an escape route. "House prices have not been impacted as they have in the US," says Andrew South, an analyst at S&P. "That gives borrowers more refinancing options if they get into difficulties."