Showing posts with label libya. Show all posts
Showing posts with label libya. Show all posts

Monday, August 26, 2013

Syria and the "responsibility to protect"

After worldwide moral cowardice during the Rwanda genocide, the UN adopted the "responsibility to protect" (RTP) doctrine, which states that global powers have the duty to "take action" when there is evidence of genocide. Two concerns: it leaves it up to the individual nations as to what actions are warranted, and the definition of genocide is pretty hazy. So it's a non-binding statute to say the least.


RTP was used to justify NATO bombing the Serbs over Bosnia, NATO bombing Saddam for gassing the Kurds, and most recently NATO bombing Qaddafi's military (for the record, Qaddafi wasn't really engaging in genocide, unless you consider those rebelling against him as a threatened minority). Of course other genocides have taken place since Rwanda where no one took any action beyond speeches. This inconsistency undermines the credibility of some global powers vis-a-vis RTP.

Last week the Syrian opposition claimed that Assad used chemical weapons on civilians/rebels in a Damascus suburb, and hundreds were sickened and killed. There is a lot of evidence to support that claim. This is the 2nd widely documented chem. attack by Assad in the last 3 months. Earlier in the civil war, Obama threatened that Assad deploying WMDs would cross a "red line" where the US would be forced to act. We did nothing after the first attack, but after this recent attack we have deployed more warships to the area (for possible missile strikes). However, there are several reasons why military intervention (even under the RTP) would be problematic for the specific case of Syria.

Bosnia is the only case on record where military intervention (with no boots on the ground amazingly) actually stopped war crimes. And the NATO bombing stopped it cold; i.e. Serbia rushed to the bargaining table the next day. But the differences with Syria are like night and day, so we can't expect to be that lucky again:

- Assad is locked in an existential internal struggle and major blood feud, while Milosevic was supporting Bosnian Serbs in a proxy war with very little strategic value or reasons to escalate
- There were clear, centralized chains of command in the Balkans, vs. quasi-chaos in Syria
- Bosnia was pretty much the nastiest war in the EU's backyard during a very peaceful period of world history (more attention, outrage, and support for intervention), while Syria is a blip (albeit a very tragic, bloody one) in the protracted War on Terror, failed Arab Spring, and general Mideast unrest that deters foreign powers from decisive action
- Russia and China will really risk a lot to go to bat for Syria, while most of Serbia's "allies" (including Russia) were not that close and easily persuaded to drop support

Then what about Libya? Over 100,000 Syrians have died so far; some in "legitimate" civil strife and others unlawfully. Qaddafi didn't come anywhere close to that (Libya as a nation is only 6M concentrated in a few major cities vs. Syria's 22M). But we helped the rebels topple his ass. Well, the effort was mostly led by the French (who sound more aggressive on Syria as well), so the US could "lead from behind" and not take flak for the consequences. Also we intervened when the Arab Spring momentum was strong and we appeared to be turning a new page in the region. In other words, lots of upside with little cost. Over a year later, we now know there were some major costs: they can't form a coalition gov't, they can't disarm their militias, they can't protect our ambassador, and arms used to oust Qaddafi (some given by the West) are getting funneled to Syria, Yemen, and other hot spots. So even a "no brainer" intervention has its downside.

This puts Obama in a real bad spot, obviously. If we keep talking about war crimes and not doing anything about it, then our credibility sinks even lower than its current abysmal level in the region. Also if we don't respond, innocents will continue to die and the instability/refugee crisis will threaten fragile neighboring nations. If we bomb Assad, then it's possible Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies will attack our forces in the Gulf (and no guarantee it will stop the atrocities). Plus it will further worsen our strategic relations with China and Russia. If we support the rebels (and they win), then Alawites will be persecuted/slaughtered and another Egypt might happen, except this time Al Nusra (overt Al Qaeda affiliates) could lead instead of the "tame" Muslim Brotherhood.

There's no way we put boots on the ground after Obama has campaigned and worked hard for years to pull out of our recent 2 Mideast wars. I believe no-win situations are in fact very rare if parties really give full effort to come to a solution, but Syria could actually be a legit one.

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Oh, forgot to mention... punitive air strikes can really go both ways, though clearly we don't have a big data sampling to study. Bombing worked well in the Bosnia War, but then I guess Milosevic learned and he was a lot less cooperative during the Kosovo War. Whereas we only bombed for a few days in Bosnia, Kosovo required over 70 DAYS of air strikes before the Serbs came to the bargaining table. Good thing too as NATO was running out of military targets, and decided to punish all the people of Serbia by expanding their target list to include irrelevant, peaceful infrastructure like the power grid and chemical plants. Also some accounts suggest that there really wasn't much evidence of atrocities against Kosovar Albanians, and NATO just wanted to teach Slobo a lesson at the time. After the first wave of cruise missiles, sadly the killing of Albanians increased out of retaliation. That's the problem with "long distance war", you have even less influence than conventional chaotic war. And it doesn't help our image, especially considering anger over our cowardly reliance on sometime illegal drone attacks. So even if we effectively and carefully target Assad's weapons (and I'm sure his WMD are carefully protected/hidden), we can't stop his ground forces from slaughtering more dissidents. UN boots on the ground won't guarantee civilian safety either. A recent report slammed the post-bombing UN-NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo for failing to protect local ethnic Serbs from revenge attacks by Albanians, and not investigating claims that thousands went "missing." The Alawites know what is coming if their side loses.

We are backing them and Assad into a corner. What is he going to do, capitulate? Slobo was still the popular leader of Serbia, possibly wanted for war crimes, and had something to lose if he didn't bargain to save his neck. Assad knows there is no scenario where he doesn't go to the dock or the morgue, so of course he is not going to respond they way we would like (especially after seeing what happened to other dictators who thought they would be safe by playing ball with America, like Qaddafi). I guess that is why diplomacy is so precious before the streets are full of blood and everyone gets irrational; now we've missed our chance to intervene effectively and are left with only bad options.

But we just can't sit idly by either, refusing to be vigilant after a regime has used WMD on civilians (and likely shot at UN inspectors trying to investigate that). If we stick to our guns, we have to go all-in then. Toppling Assad is the easy part, but we have to make sure to not let Syria become another Egypt, Iraq, or Kosovo. And we have to make sure we can afford to intervene, both financially and politically. Or we hold off and try to bribe Russia/China into permitting a UN mandate, then go in as a coalition and try our best to not F it up again.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Obama's transparency award and Libya lawsuit

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/jun/14/rescind-barack-obama-obama-transparency-award

The "transparency award" in question was described as "aspirational", similar to the rationale for awarding Obama the Nobel Peace Prize early in his presidency when he had done nothing yet to further the cause of peace. Participants admitted they used the private meeting in March to try and lobby Obama to do more to earn their award. If the president doesn't change course as a result of the lobbying and "award", there are some who would shrug and say, "no harm, no foul".
- letter authors

In March, Obama won an open government/transparency award from 5 gov't watchdog groups. But soon after, a coalition of other watchdogs and whistleblowers wrote an open letter in The Guardian to rescind the award, since secrecy and suppression have actually increased during the Obama admin. This is noteworthy when you consider his predecessor. I know he is no longer Candidate Obama, and as president he must be a company man and defend agencies like the NSA and FBI. But we put him in office to change things, not bolster the status quo.

The "example" his administration is making of Wikileaker Bradley Manning (who hasn't been convicted in court BTW) is atrocious. That man (a US citizen with rights) probably broke the law, but at present he is basically zero threat to US national security, yet he has been kept in solitary lock-down 23/24 hours a day for months. There are also accusations that he was tortured. This punishment is disproportionate and probably unconstitutional. How can we criticize Syria and Myanmar about their abuses? Yes leaks can hurt national interests, but secrets can too. There has to be a balance, and without leakers and whistleblowers, we might still think that Nixon wasn't a crook, companies price commodities fairly, and cigarettes are non-addictive. 

Here is a partial list of their criticisms:
• President Obama has not decreased, but has dramatically increased governmental secrecy. According to a new report to the president by the Information Security Oversight Office (ISOO) – the federal agency that provides oversight of the government's security classification system – the cost of classification for 2010 has reached over $10.17bn. That's a 15% jump from the previous year, and the first time ever that secrecy costs have surpassed $10bn.
• There were 544,360 requests for information last year under the Freedom of Information Act to the 35 biggest federal agencies – 41,000 requests more than the year before. Yet the bureaucracy responded to 12,400 fewer requests than the prior year, according to an analysis by the Associated Press.
• Obama has invoked baseless and unconstitutional executive secrecy to quash legal inquiries into secret illegalities more often than any predecessor. The list of this president's invocations of the "state secrets privilege" has already resulted in shutting down lawsuits involving the National Security Agency's illegal wiretapping – Jewel v NSA and Shubert v Obama; extraordinary rendition and assassination – Anwar al-Awlaki; and illegal tortureBinyam Mohamed.
• Ignoring his campaign promise to protect government whistleblowers, Obama's presidency has amassed the worst record in US history for persecuting, prosecuting and jailing government whistleblowers and truth-tellers. President Obama's behaviour has been in stark contrast to his campaign promises, which included live-streaming meetings online and rewarding whistleblowers.
• The Obama justice department's prosecution of former NSA official Thomas Drake, who, up till 9 June, faced 35 years in prison for having blown the whistle on the NSA's costly and unlawful warrantless monitoring of American citizens, typifies the abusive practices made possible through expansive secrecy agreements and threats of prosecution.
• President Obama has set a powerful and chilling example for potential whistleblowers through the abuse and torture of Bradley Manning, whose guilt he has also publicly stated prior to any trial by his, Obama's, military subordinates.
• Under President Obama, the FBI has launched a series of raids and issued grand jury subpoenas targeting nearly two dozen antiwar activists. Over 2,600 arrests of protesters in the US have been made while Obama has been president, further encroaching on the exercise of first amendment rights.
• President Obama has initiated a secret assassination programme, has publicly announced that he has given himself the power to include Americans on the list of people to be assassinated, and has attempted to assassinate at least one, Anwar al-Awlaki.
President Obama has maintained the power to secretly kidnap, imprison, rendition, or torture, and he has formalised the power to lawlessly imprison in an executive order. This also means the power to secretly imprison. There are some 1,700 prisoners outside the rule of law in Bagram alone.
• President Obama promised to reveal White House visitors' logs. He didn't. In response to outrage over his refusal to reveal the names of health insurance CEOs he had met with and cut deals with on the health insurance reform bill, he announced that he would release the names going forward, but not those in the past. And going forward, he would withhold names he chose to withhold. White House staff then began regularly meeting lobbyists just off White House grounds in order to avoid the visitors' logs.
• President Obama has sent representatives to aggressively pressure Spain, England and Germany to shut down investigations that could have exposed the crimes of the Bush era, just as he has instructed the US justice department to avoid such matters.
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Also, what do you think about the lawsuit brought on by Kucinich, Boehner, and others questioning the legality of Obama's military action in Libya vis-a-vis the War Powers Act? I know I wrote you earlier advocating intervention in Libya, but since then I believe I was wrong. Well, I definitely think the way Obama and NATO are handling it is wrong. If we made a surgical hit on Qaddafi and his most loyal associates when the rebels were on the outskirts of Tripoli early in the conflict, maybe it could have avoided these months of war and stalemate (there probably would still be later conflict in Libya to fill the power vacuum, but at least the UN could get shoes on the ground by then to try to maintain order and political fair play).

But as we learned in Iraq, we just can't take out a dictator without a PLAN for what happens next. And of course we have no friggin' plan for Libya. The excuse of avoiding a humanitarian disaster with intervention also doesn't hold water, because worse abuses took place in Darfur, and are taking place presently in Syria, and we do nothing. Qaddafi is bad but he's not Nero. Plus who the heck will run the country after him? We don't have a puppet government waiting in the wings, and we have no history or relations with the rebels (who are quite heterogeneous BTW). From our dealings with Pakistan and Israel, we should know that even open alliances can be very tricky and damaging to our interests. So maybe the Libertarians and pacifists (and those with common sense intelligence) are onto something when they advocate for no foreign interventions unless our vital interests are directly at stake. The sooner the US realizes the limits of its power and influence, the stronger and safer the country will be.

Despite the Congressional lawsuit, they can't really do anything to stop the Libya operation because Obama said he won't be asking them for any more money than was already allocated, so they have no future leverage. They of course could draft legislation to force the president to halt the mission, but Obama would just veto it, and I doubt Dem senators would turn against him with an election year coming up.

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So can we give the Laker's the NBA championship halfway through next season?  Ya know, to encourage them to actually win it.

Reading that list of offenses by Obama is embarassing.  But a non-theoretical question for you, would you expect Bachmann to be better?  In retrospect would we have preferred McCain/Palin?  As hard and fast as the government is screwing us there is no hero to step in.  What are the options?  Mass support for protests just does exist in this country partly for reasons recently discussed.  A meaningful number of people think Obama is too liberal and that Romney is too.  

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Haha the Lakers don't need that incentive, they just need to have their wives and GFs get along, but that's another story! Heck they have enough talent anyway, give the pre-championship to the Clippers to motivate them!

As you said, the aspirational award is an interesting concept. Too bad it doesn't apply to peons like me. I'd love for my boss to give me an aspirational bonus/promotion, and if I didn't live up to it, "no harm no foul".

Of course I think some more hard-line politicians would be much worse than Obama re: transparency, but that's why I voted for him. He was supposed to be more civil, dignified, and humane, but his record hasn't shown much. While I think it's highly unlikely Obama would lose in 2012 (and if he does, we'll have many more problems than this undeserved transparency award), a new GOP administration is not likely to be more people-friendly on this issue. I would pack my bags if I was a Muslim or Arab, considering the offensive language used at the recent debate and on the campaign trail. Didn't some politician say we should nuke Mecca in retaliation for another Islamist attack on the US?

Yep: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,162795,00.html 
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and, a meaningful number survive on social security, lost their homes to fraudulent banking practices and have had healthcare costs skyrocket to the point of being unattainable.  i think they're waking up to the fact that the democrats and republicans are going to screw them, no matter what.  it;s coke or pepsi.  pepsi's a little sweeter, but both will make your ass fat and rot your teeth.  it's bullshit and it's bad for you.  look how many people are showing up and protesting and getting arrested.  there are tons.  it's just not on your tv nor is it reported on npr.   People have to stop this branding thing of 'socialism is bad' and start to wake up that social-ism just means that your priority in govt. is society, therefore you support society's basic needs.  then, you have to vote for people based on their actions, not on their words(obama).  but, i'm not totally convinced that even if we did vote in kucinich for president he wouldn't be crippled by media attacks like carter.  revolution is the only way out.  it's breaking out all over.  

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The unfortunate part is you need to be at the light-myself-on-fire stage for meaningful action to take place.  People are willing to take too much and survive on too little.  What i don't understand is how badly things can go once you get into the high office.  Would T do the same thing as Obama?  Maybe i'm not cynical enough to believe that most in congress/high offices went into it for the wrong reason.  I want to believe that most went to change things for the better but our current outcome doesn't follow.
Maybe the random selection method for government offices?  2 year rotation only requirement is minimum education?
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Heh T holding high office? I would send the Lakers and Patriots to Gitmo, legalize all drugs but meth (only ugly trailer trash use it), move the US capital to Vegas, and institute a national salary cap of $1M (since I'm not greedy). Then I'd use that extra tax revenue to fix all the broken shit we email about. But it wouldn't really matter what I want since it would be impossible to work with Congress on anything meaningful.

Actually the Tunisians (part of the smelly Arab masses that Westerners look down on) have a leg up on us. That street vendor who got screwed over by the gov't and self-immolated triggered a successful revolution. The American Quaker who lit himself on fire to protest Vietnam didn't stop the war, much less overthrow Nixon. And you or I doing the same today won't make Washington wake up. Our lives don't mean squat to them. A million lives don't either. And when that is the case - we need new gov't as L said.

J and I were talking about this recently - No Drama Obama decided that getting re-elected was more important than keeping his campaign promises. He basically is letting Wall Street (and those loyal to it in Congress) have free reign, deferring to the Pentagon and CIA to "protect America" as they see fit, and not confronting the many parties damaging America from within (and I'm not referring to the Muslims or Hollywood Elite). That way none of his campaign donors are pissed off, and maybe in his second term he grows a pair. Or maybe that's the problem - he was all "hopey and changey" on the campaign trail, but in private he made promises to all his funders that he would be this kind of president, and "a Lannister always pays his debts".

Maybe you noticed that I'm fairly schizophrenic on my evaluations of Obama since 2008, depending on how bad the GOP is in comparison. Today obviously I'm being a hard-ass. But it's tough - expectations were unprecedented for him, world events have got in the way of a lot of his initiatives, the US right wing has basically made it their Crusade for him to fail, and "herding cats" in Washington is as tricky as it sounds (even the liberal ones, who all expect Obama to put their causes #1). And let's remember that he was pretty much a political baby upon taking office. Bottom line, these are just excuses. He deliberately let opportunities for change pass him by, or he didn't try hard enough to stand up for the people and for what is right. Sadly, his boldest move was to give the green light to violate Pakistani sovereignty and take out Geronimo. I don't think other major political figures would have done much better in his shoes, but I have to believe there are some caring, decent Americans out there who could. Those people wouldn't be allowed anywhere near elected office though.

But like M said, somehow America will go on because deep down we can take a lot of shit. We may complain about it, but we'll soldier on, even if we're broke. What choice do we have - move to Afghanistan? And things aren't quite Greek-bad in order to get a critical mass to rise up. We'll have Coke or Pepsi in Washington for probably the rest of our lives, and that's just the way it is. But hopefully if a real leader for the people emerges, I'm ready to follow him/her and give my life to rid us of this plutocracy. I just hope what follows is something better.
Oh forgot to mention (humor me just a sec), another thing barring us from rising up is losing whatever little we have. Unless you're Buddhist, you probably feel that you have one shot at life. Loved ones, job, what meager assets you have - if you decide to fight the system you could lose it all. It's a serious deterrent, as is the hope that things are bound to get better if we just wait it out. Inaction is the easiest action. That's why I really have to admire the freedom fighters and activists from Iran to Burma, who have made the choice to lay it all on the line for what they believe, and many have paid dearly. We are cowards and slaves in comparison.  

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There is something to be said to giving 100% (like many of these protesters who are literally dying to make their country better) but it is also important to note the absolute value of what you have to lose.  Most people have a job that pays, a tv to watch, food to eat, etc.  If i was deciding between protest and starvation what do i really have to lose.  Like you said T, people don't want to lose what little we have.  And i'm not sure we'll ever have little enough (by comparison to the rest of the world) for a large enough percentage of people to be willing to risk it for change.  Unfortunately i'm like most people in that i'm an armchair critic.  Maybe that is actually more that what most people put into the political process but it isn't enough and I know that and i don't have the time/will/determination/fill in the blank to change that as of now. 

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Yeah I feel you on these points. As you said, much of our population won't be so desperate as to revolt, and those at the bottom are too marginalized to fight. Just as civil rights have evolved since the Middle Ages, so has tyranny. The feudal and slavery systems mostly failed around the world (except places like Saudi and N Korea), so rulers have found that they can still keep people down in a "free society". It's very good crowd control (whether deliberate or not): pacify the people with just enough prosperity and other priorities so they forget about their rights and dignity. Order in China pretty much hinges on this too.

It's tough to convince people to fight a system that they are invested in, or feel dependent on. Most of us probably have retirement accounts. Those are run by Wall Street. Probably we would like to see the "too big to fail" banks broken up like Standard Oil, but what if the cost was our savings? More Americans work for corporations now than ever before (probably out of necessity and economic conditions, not that we like them any more). At work I am sure you have met zealots who think the firm can do no wrong, and they might secretly be OK with corporate misbehavior if their stock options appreciate. Even if we're not greedy company men, our reliance on their salary and hope for career progression may affect our loyalties. We like our creature comforts and we can't all be like Siddhartha or Guevarra. Online media supposedly helped some Mideast revolutions, but when used differently it can be an urban pacification tool. People can literally never face another human being, yet hold a job and order whatever items they need online. If we're all isolated (and distracted with media/entertainment), we can't organize. And to a certain extent, major religions tell us to just take our lumps and don't rock the boat, and we'll be rewarded in the afterlife. These and other factors make us unlikely to upset the status quo.

Maybe we don't have to be all or nothing though - courage to change what we can, tolerance to accept what we can't, and wisdom to know the difference. A big gift to the world is to raise kids with good values who might be able to serve society more than we were able. Heh but when faced with that challenge, maybe I'd rather be a guerrilla. A MLK or Gandhi is born every so often, so we have trust and nurture the next generation (which hopefully also prevents the next Hitler or Pol Pot from developing). But "waiting on the world to change" probably isn't good enough, so I guess incremental protests or choices made in your own life about issues you care about can achieve some good (and hopefully won't have unintended negative consequences). Maybe with the butterfly effect and such, a passing good deed snowballs into something bigger. I could do a lot better, but I try to donate/volunteer, avoid frivolous consumption, do right by people, and scale back my energy/meat intake. Unfortunately, I think all that doesn't even offset all the harm I do each day. If I had any surplus money, I wouldn't invest in companies that I don't approve of (which is pretty much all of them LOL). I'm open to new suggestions though, so M or others please feel free to share. But as you said, changing ourselves is the easy part - how the hell do we change politics?
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Now, I'm with you!  a lottery system for people who had an adequate grade in mandatory civics classes in high school.  that would first entail we teach civics in high school again.
My guess is T wouldn't change but would think that he was being pragmatic by privatizing prisons.  It's rationalization.  Either that, or someone in the media would get a 'tip' on T's porn collection and ending his career with a tearful remorseful press conference. ;)
To be honest, I'm not sure we as a society would care if someone set themselves on fire in protest. We'd call them crazy.
I heard it described once as a frog in a cool pot of water on a stove.  The frog just sits while being cooked in the boiling water b/c it happens so slowly.
People are protesting(i'm going to an antiwar rally today), people are getting arrested, marches are happening on wall street regularly.  But, it doesn't exist in our worlds which glow from living rooms every night, therefore they don't happen.  Hugo Chavez has a downright antagonistic media.  It's run by the monied elite.  But, he also has 70% support b/c he really is a populist and supports evening the playing field.  Can that happen here?  I just don't know.....Does poverty have to reach the level of poverty of third world nations before we do something?  

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Heh I'm already having Weiner (the mother of all fitting names) draft
my apology speech. "I let you all down, and I ask that you pray for my
rehabilitation, and healing for my family who suffered from my
misdeeds."

Besides improving civics edu (that US kids scored horribly in a recent
assessment), families/teachers/leaders need to do a much better job
showing youth how we are all interconnected and interdependent. The
selfish older gens are a lost cause, but maybe there's hope for kids.
If we realize the consequences and externalities of our actions, then
maybe we'll make more socially responsible decisions. Do I really need
that luxury car, knowing that money could feed a village for a year?
The world is not just our playground and our personal desires aren't
the only consideration. Once people get a grip on their egotism and
tribalism, socialism is the logical next step. It's not an us-vs-them,
win-lose situation; we're all in this together so we better cooperate,
or we won't survive. I'm struggling with this every day though.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Problems with the Libya no-fly zone

Here's the problem with the UN's slow response to the Libyan civil war:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theenvoy/20110321/ts_yblog_theenvoy/international-alliance-divided-over-libya-command

Air patrols and cruise missile strikes alone won't force a well-financed sociopathic dictator to step down, especially when he knows no foreign troops will come. The opposition has to topple him and seal the deal. If the international community acted 2 weeks ago, when the rebels had all the momentum and were at the outskirts of Tripoli, then maybe we could have had a relatively clean conclusion to this tough situation and a cessation of violence now. But as we dithered, Qaddafi's better armed and trained forces beat back the rebels, and we only started to attack this weekend when the tables had turned, and Qaddafi was about to deliver his death blow to the resistance at Benghazi. We lost the initiative, and now it's starting to look intractable like our police action in Korea in the 1950s.

I know it's hard to get the UN and NATO to act quickly on anything, and the Japan quake was another major concern to address. But that's why our fumbling in Iraq and Afghanistan is so costly and will hurt us for years more; no-drama Obama is so paranoid of getting embroiled in another Middle East quagmire that he is being too timid when America would have been justified to act weeks ago. If this uprising occurred in 1995, I think Clinton would have swiftly intervened. No one wants Qaddafi around. Unfortunately neither does Al Qaeda, so maybe in his power vacuum some Islamic forces would gain some power, but it's doubtful if they would be able to control the entire country. Qaddafi has survived for 40 years partly by beating down any traces of Islamic movements, like his neighbor Mubarak.

But we don't want another quagmire that ends up biting us in the ass, right? When we toppled Saddam, it was a big boon to Iran and Al Qaeda. We messed up there because we were following a foolish strategy of remaking the region into a "kinder, gentler" Middle East that would be safe for globalization and Israel. Many Iraqis hated Saddam, but his grip on power was strong and he was basically an integral part of the Iraqi society he built around himself and the Ba'ath party. The Saddam opposition movement was comprised of a handful of corrupt, decadent, unknown exiled chumps like Ahmed Chalabi. All that was a recipe for disaster, but Bush and the neocons had blinders on. In the Libyan case, a good portion of the country has already rejected him. We won't have to install any government like with Iraq, we can let the Libyans run the show. The rebels are organized and motivated and not radical Muslims like the Mujahadeen vs. the USSR. Libya is sparsely populated with only a few coastal urban centers, it does a lot of commerce with Europe, and maintains diplomatic relations with the outside world. It is a relatively easier case for post-dictatorship nation building. We could still horribly mess up with Libya, but it's a much easier challenge than Iraq or Afghanistan.

So what are our options now? Air-drop supplies and other assistance to the rebels? Freeze Qaddafi's assets, increase sanctions, and hope we stave him out? But that hurts the innocent population too, and as we've seen with Iran, we can't effectively embargo a country the size of Texas. The rebels will run out of steam before Qaddafi's side does, he's a survivor. Maybe at best we can hope for some sort of bargained truce where Qaddafi stays in power and the rebels get a section of the country, like with Sudan. But there are plenty of problems associated with that scenario too, it will take years to implement, and who says Qaddafi won't crush the other side in a surprise attack down the road when we're no longer concerned with Libya?

Here's an opposing view arguing that liberal interventionists are basically behaving like neocons in calling for Obama to intervene in the Libya situation that we have no business meddling in:

http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/21/what_intervention_in_libya_tells_us_about_the_neocon_liberal_alliance

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Michael Scheuer on Osama and the Mideast

This was one of the most refreshing foreign policy interviews I've heard in a while, from Prof. Michael Scheuer of G'Town who used to head up the CIA's Bin Laden group (nicknamed "The Manson Family" for how fanatically they performed their jobs). I guess you might think he was a failure for that, but he informed the Pentagon of OBL's precise location on 8 occasions (of course no way to know if they were right), and the Clinton admin. declined to give the green light for their own reasons. In 2007, Osama himself said that the two Americans who understood him the most were Noam Chomsky and Scheuer (make of that what you will).

http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201102231000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Scheuer

Scheuer said that as early as 1997, Osama's grand strategy was to foment political discord in the US and alienate us from our allies over our foreign policy, stretch our military-intel apparatus thin trying to chase Al Qaeda, and bankrupt us in foreign quagmires. If that is true, then the self-proclaimed greatest nation in history strutted into a major bear trap set by a guy hiding in a cave. We're not on our last legs yet, but we're not winning either (especially when you consider the price we've paid so far for minor gains). He also said that Osama is more of a smart, dedicated "worthy enemy" like Robert E. Lee than a delusional lunatic like Kim Jong Il. Unfortunately the former is a lot harder to defeat.

Osama's top enemies are/were the non-Islamic dictators in the Mideast (especially the House of Saud, Saddam, Mubarak, and Qaddafi, so this has been a great month for him) and Israel. The US and the West are indirect enemies due to our support for said enemies. But one wonders whether our choice of allies could have prevented Osama from becoming militant. After all, he did fight with us at one time, so we must not have been such intolerable infidels. Just as our "trusted Iraqi sources" told the neo-cons exactly what they wanted to hear, that Iraq had WMD for their own interests, Israel and our dictator buddies in the Mideast (who view grassroots Islamic movements as their top threats to power) have fed us crap for years that Al Qaeda hates us because of our values, and won't stop until we're dead or converted. Well if that's the case then it's personal; we better hate them back and wage an endless, amorphous war against them. Good vs. evil, our civilization is at stake, yadda yadda.

Yes Al Qaeda may want a global caliphate, because that is what Muhammad instructed Muslims to do (not necessarily through violence). I want a new job, and even if I try very hard to get one there's no telling if and when it will happen. Some US evangelicals hope to bring about the conditions that unleash Armageddon - not just prepare for the return of the lord, but actively make it happen. Then the US and all nations will be destroyed, and everyone but the true believers die horrible deaths (including the Jews they profess to support). So should we imprison the evangelicals for conspiracy against the US, and send them to Gitmo as religious fanatics? There is no point fearing and defending against every extreme religious endgame. But hey, it makes for a great bogeyman for people like Bush and Beck to peddle on the ignorant and fearful.

All this masks the truths that are politically inconvenient for our leaders, and hinders their propaganda efforts inspiring us to sacrifice for this righteous conflict. We and our allies created Al Qaeda and Osama. Instead of diffusing the causes of their grievances, we have chosen to fight them head on, and on their terms. And we have taken this problematic path because we care more about propping up dictators in order to keep the Israelis happy, Muslims down, and oil exports up (an industry whose profits go to only a small subset of people), rather than forging true partnerships, cultural understanding, political reforms, and economic development. The region is still affected by the legacies of colonialism; they need a Marshall Plan, not Rendition and sanctions. If we took the higher path, maybe Exxon and Lockheed's coffers would be smaller, but the people over there would have a better quality of life and viable political channels of redress (precluding the need to embrace violent Islam), which ensures greater stability and security for our interests in the end.

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Scheuer also made pretty good comments about our precarious support of Israel. Any nation founded on the premise that a deity granted a chosen tribe exclusive rights to a patch of land in an unbreakable, eternal covenant (and much of their government is populated by leaders who espouse this belief) is probably not a great partner for rational, 21st Century diplomacy. The US supposedly trusts in god, but no one except Palin types would claim that god cares whether the US is around or not. Scheuer was the first person I've heard to say that Israel doesn't have a right to exist, contrary to most public statements. He of course believes that Israel has the right to defend itself from threats, but no nation has a "right" to exist, and that is an important distinction. It must be true, otherwise the USSR would still be around, and we couldn't have forced Nazi Germany to surrender. Nations exist as long as they can, but if they grow weak or piss off other nations enough, they're going down. That is the way of the world, so why the double-standard for Israel? Because god said so? And we call the Muslims crazy? This is important because it's much harder to think clearly when existential sentiments are always clouding one's judgment.

Regarding Libya, it's amazing that Obama hasn't publicly condemned Qaddafi's violence against his people and called for him to step down (the Arab League already has). Clinton spoke out a bit, and also previously called on the Iranian people to rise up against their murderous regime. That's easy for her to say 10,000 miles away in safety and comfort, but these are not light decisions for the people on the ground. If they want to revolt, they have to go all the way or it's their death and doom for their loved ones. Despots stay in power by paying for loyalty and crushing opponents, especially those who dare to speak out. There's no turning back, and if we realize that we should really salute the courageous young people who risked everything to defy the odds and topple dictators backed by thousands of gunmen and billions of petro-dollars. The typical American can't even be bothered to drive down the street and vote once a year. It's a real shame that decades of our foreign policy blunders have rendered us nearly impotent during this critical time in Mideast history.

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/22/too_little_not_yet_too_late

Why has the US put more heat on Mubarak, when he was responsible for far less bloodshed (at least Mubarak didn't send warplanes to bomb unarmed people in his own cities)? Libya cut a deal with Bush and others in the West to get UN sanctions lifted and to get off the terror blacklist. Qaddafi supposedly agreed to cease his WMD programs, pay reparations to the victims of the Pan Am bombing, and release some Western captives. He must have got a lot in return, including diplomatic cover. And when the EU buys 85% of Libya's substantial oil exports, that's a lot of capital to cash in during a crisis. That shows you how our foreign energy dependence can cripple our diplomatic options and stifle our principles. It's clear that Qaddafi is done; it just matters how much he will kill and destroy in the process. It's better for us and the region to limit Qaddafi's damage now. We enforced no-fly zones over Serbia and Iraq, why not with Libya? Our fleet is already over there. Many Libyan pilots bravely defected and refused to carry out missions to bomb protesters. But at least the US/NATO can embargo incoming shipments of resources and mercenaries from Qaddafi's African allies.

Why do Muslims hate us? Not because of our democracy, shopping malls, and women's rights (well not primarily). It's because we choose to befriend homicidal klepto-sociopaths over the millions of honest, poor people languishing under their boots. It's not just Obama but a long tradition.