Monday, September 27, 2010

FDR's "economic bill of rights" that is so needed today

I know Moore's best film was "Roger and Me" decades ago, but "Sicko" was pretty good so I thought I'd give "Capitalism" a chance, even if I could already imagine his thesis and slant (not saying that his argument is without validity, but I prefer to get a fresh viewpoint for personal edification).

One fact I didn't know was that a year before FDR died, and right in the middle of the biggest political issue of all time (not Lewinsky-gate, but WWII), he proposed a second or "Economic bill of rights" to help guarantee a better quality of life for all Americans. He wanted to do this because the first Bill focused on our political rights, and FDR felt that equal and fair access should be linked to the pursuit of happiness (otherwise what's the point?). FDR came from privilege but saw how greed from the rich sunk the market and crippled many of honest families during the Depression, and wanted to lay the foundation for a better future for Americans. Frankly, I find it utterly negligent and immoral that my public high school did not teach this, and I hope your schools were better. But then again, social sciences textbooks are produced by large companies that could stand to lose if an economic bill of rights were ever supported and enacted by the people.

Part of FDR's 1944 State of the Union speech went:

It is our duty now to begin to lay the plans and determine the strategy for the winning of a lasting peace and the establishment of an American standard of living higher than ever before known. We cannot be content, no matter how high that general standard of living may be, if some fraction of our people—whether it be one-third or one-fifth or one-tenth—is ill-fed, ill-clothed, ill-housed, and insecure.
This Republic had its beginning, and grew to its present strength, under the protection of certain inalienable political rights—among them the right of free speech, free press, free worship, trial by jury, freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures. They were our rights to life and liberty.
As our nation has grown in size and stature, however—as our industrial economy expanded—these political rights proved inadequate to assure us equality in the pursuit of happiness.
We have come to a clear realization of the fact that true individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence. “Necessitous men are not free men.”[2] People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made.
In our day these economic truths have become accepted as self-evident. We have accepted, so to speak, a second Bill of Rights under which a new basis of security and prosperity can be established for all—regardless of station, race, or creed.
Among these are:
The right to a useful and remunerative job in the industries or shops or farms or mines of the nation;
The right to earn enough to provide adequate food and clothing and recreation;
The right of every farmer to raise and sell his products at a return which will give him and his family a decent living;
The right of every businessman, large and small, to trade in an atmosphere of freedom from unfair competition and domination by monopolies at home or abroad;
The right of every family to a decent home;
The right to adequate medical care and the opportunity to achieve and enjoy good health;
The right to adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accident, and unemployment;
The right to a good education.
All of these rights spell security. And after this war is won we must be prepared to move forward, in the implementation of these rights, to new goals of human happiness and well-being.
For unless there is security here at home there cannot be lasting peace in the world.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Bill_of_Rights

Unfortunately, FDR was quite ahead of his time. "Unless there is security here at home, there cannot be lasting peace in the world." Why do so many young, poor Americans "volunteer" for our armed forces or defense contractors? Some due to patriotism, but others due to material need and lack of gainful employment at home. Why did we go to war in Iraq? Partly because we don't have trade and energy security for our economy at home.

"Individual freedom cannot exist without economic security." How many of us are "slaves" to our jobs, and just put up with more and more abuse and loss of rights/benefits/dignity because we have no choice, and people count on us to make ends meet? How many of us are enslaved by the ridiculous cost of living in many metro US locations, the ridiculously complicated paperwork associated with taxation, finance, property, family, and other legal issues (that is way worse than any other G20 nation), and the ridiculous cycle of what economist Thorstein Veblen first coined "conspicuous consumption," because we think buying all that stuff will make our lives better, and make us look cooler and more successful to our peers (when they actually just steal our time, money, and even health)? What kind of "labor market" do we have when people don't pursue their dreams and innate talents because of material considerations (I can't believe that the best and brightest of us choose to work in finance, software, and cosmetic surgery because they truly love it more than other fields of letters and arts with more tangible social benefits)? What is the difference if a Marxist Leninist state tells you what job you will have, or the market? It's not really your choice either way unless you're independently wealthy, really lucky, or a standout with some desired skill set. How many of us or people we know stay at a bad job just for the medical coverage, or because they're worried they will run out of money during retirement? When we're economically desperate (or some may call it economically rational), we will endorse many harmful political and social practices. Our efforts to "maximize personal profit" may end up hurting us, and it happens every day.

Look at the list of rights: a useful and remunerative job that pays enough to provide and even have a little fun, a fair market with decent returns and competition, adequate housing, medical care, retirement, education, and disaster insurance. He's not asking for the moon here, but these days it seems like it. There isn't even a right for workers to unionize or represent themselves on the board. There's nothing that says everyone is entitled to a McMansion, SUV, and tropical time-share. What's ironic is that the idealists in our government who were inspired by FDR went out to the ravaged nations in Europe and Asia through the Marshall Plan, and helped create constitutions and societies that did uphold these rights that never materialized in FDR's country, rights that the business community equates to socialism and evil. Yes those other countries are no paradises (well, maybe Sweden would be if it had San Diego weather) and have their share of economic problems. Their social safety nets are fraying under the pressures of rising costs and aging populations, Japan had its own housing bubble and decade-long recession, and Europeans engaged in risky financial speculation and over-leveraging. Actually they only when wrong when they decided to act like Americans. At least they did what they could to create reasonably equitable societies (the rich-poor gap in Japan is the smallest in the world, while free market Mexico and Brazil have some of the highest), and presided over at least two generations of very happy, healthy, peaceful, productive, and well educated people. Think about how their policies helped prevent millions of people from going hungry, getting sick, and going to jail unnecessarily, while the numbers of those in America have soared since WWII despite our superior wealth.

When considering the cases of those nations (of course FDR had no way of predicting how the world would be in 2010), critics may say that we couldn't afford the economic bill of rights and it would be a government-run disaster of a social experiment. Inefficient markets due to government price controls and mandates always cause other problems, like the New York City rental market or gas rationing during the OPEC embargo. But who really knows, since we didn't give it an honest try. Imagine if all the wealth that was concentrated on Wall Street and among the richest 1% of us since WWII was instead used to make social services better and more efficient, or even make companies and communities more sustainable. Imagine if all the big brains behind Enron and mortgage-backed securities instead used their talents to improve society for all. It's a positive cycle that then raises the overall productivity, health, happiness, and wealth of a society. We'd waste less money on prisons, wars, pharmaceuticals, and frivolous products, which would give us more spending power for life essentials, and might even drive down the market price for the super-expensive things that we struggle with today (housing, education, health, elderly care). A "socially responsible" free market could have worked.

Before you write me off as an anti-consumerist socialist, I do want to say that I endorse the economic principle that efficient markets do create wealth and give everyone a "bigger share of pie". The problem is that the rich get most of the pie gains, so what's the point for the rest of us? As Moore said in his film, and maybe we have postulated over email too, those of us in the non-rich masses tolerate and even support this innately unjust market system because we hope that one day we will join the likes of the rich. It's like wasting one's pocket change at a slot machine because someone's gotta get a jackpot eventually, right? Except this time it's your life, your life savings, and no do-over. But what if you don't make it to the promised land (and don't get a federal bailout when you fail)? You would have endorsed a system that has brought you and millions like you unnecessary hardships just so a lucky, smart, or cheating few can profit immensely. If we had a choice between a reasonably socially secure life without the possibility of being rich or poor, or the free market where one can soar high or crash and burn (and be required to pay for everything out of pocket), would you be willing to pull the slot machine lever? And even if you do manage to make it big, is it still justified to gain at so many others' expense? Most major religions say no, and in fact they say the greedy and rich are cursed to hell.

The free market works better if people are more responsible with their profit motives, and don't take more than they reasonably need. But how the hell do you enforce that in a democracy? The incentive principle states that people tend to make decisions that will benefit them, so hopefully the wealthy will feel more personal benefit from philanthropy than making that one extra million (to add to their already immense net worth) from a Ponzi scheme. If a big investor owns X million shares of company Y, which had a good year, why not forgo dividends so that the company can pay its people better and offer its products for less? The stock already went up, you don't need the extra money, and your contribution will position the company to do even better in the future. Generosity, or even common sense, pays too and maybe better than greed. A good rancher keeps his milk cow healthy and doesn't slaughter her for meat. Goldman Sachs and George Soros types are the latter, speculators who contribute to and profit from market volatility that brought immeasurable panic and even suicides to honest investors and pensioners. There's no economic safeguard or equilibrating force to prevent the super rich from getting more and not sharing, which hurts everyone unless the pie is growing at a crazy pace (which we all know can't last). I guess the government used to step in and "spread the wealth around." The top tax bracket was 90% under JFK (when America had fewer super-rich), but today it is half that and capital gains/dividend taxes are obscenely low (the rich get much more money from investments than wages) as part of the Bush tax cuts that may expire soon. A society is not sustainable if the super rich profit without giving a "fair share" back, which also contributes to massive government debt (in both good and lean times it seems) which hurts everyone. Even conservative free marketeer Alan Greenspan, who helped us into this recession as chairman of the Fed, came out against extending the Bush cuts for that reason: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec10/greenspan_09-24.html.

Other shocking points from the movie:

1) Remember the Continental Express plane crash near Buffalo, NY a while back? Apparently right before the crash (which was attributed to weather and pilot error), the 2 pilots were complaining about their wages, which was a paltry $16,000 for the co-pilot Rebecca Shaw and not much more for the lead pilot. Moore interviewed some pilots who said they needed to take 2nd jobs or food stamps to get by, despite having a college degree and pilot's license that cost about $100K in student fees. This doesn't really apply to the subset of big-time pilots flying 747s on major routes, but why would lower pilots accept this horrible situation? They are cursed to love what they do, and airlines exploit this. Post 9/11 airlines need to cut costs to please Wall Street (even Southwest recently had a losing quarter), so they over-work and under-pay pilots, despite being unionized and even though those human beings are the only thing standing between hundreds of people getting to where they need to go safely, or dying a fiery death. Wages have been slashed and pensions are gone, but airline execs are living well. Are you ok with your pilot exhausted and stressed out about his or her personal finances? Imagine what other ways airlines are cutting safety or barely meeting FAA minimums. Even Miracle on the Hudson pilot Sully Sullenberger testified before Congress about this problem, but to deaf ears (and Congressmen take at least 50 plane trips a year!). If this is the magic of the market, I don't want any of it.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7015139878

2) Companies take out "dead peasants" life insurance policies on some workers in order to make a little extra cash on the side, which they don't share with the deceased's family. Young workers are especially lucrative because they have so much future earning power and the chances of death are low, but for big firms like Wal-mart or AMEX, they have enough staff to try. They probably have actuaries crunching HR demographics data to select the subset of workers with the most profit potential. Companies are not required to disclose any of this, and it is perfectly legal, but lawyers and the media have found out through leaks and erroneous mailings to next of kin. It's just an example of how the profit motive has been terribly twisted into something that most of us would hopefully find very offensive. A worker may be worth more to a company dead than alive. I'm not saying that companies actively try to help their insured workers die, but if they stand to gain from death, do they have a subtle economic incentive to not really take care of the welfare and personal needs of that worker? Maybe over-work them and cut health benefits? And it's not like companies need to insure themselves against losing most workers (apart from rare critical personnel like Steve Jobs types) like a breadwinner insures his or her death for the family. Most companies are set up to have interchangeable parts and redundancies, so losing a worker now and then won't cripple the business. Co-workers cover until HR can hire a substitute, so it's all really just a side-bet to make more cash. 

http://deadpeasantinsurance.com/

There are dozens of companies listed on the site, so see if your employer is among them! And remember that these are only the firms that got exposed.

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A recent NPR story about this topic, and more specifically an alternative to the corporate business model:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130197557

You are probably familiar with the Maglite heavy flashlights that police officers use, and their smaller versions for civilians. Those products are made by Mag Instruments, a decades-old private company of 700 employees located in Ontario, CA. The company founder and leader, Anthony Maglica, is over 70, hasn't taken a vacation since the 1990's, and wears a shop floor uniform to work. He grew up in the US during the Depression, and unfortunately his family moved from the frying pan into the fire, and he grew up hungry in WWII-ravaged Croatia. Maybe these early experiences formed his business priorities, such as customer and employee treatment over profits. While most small consumer goods are manufactured overseas for cost savings, Maglites have remained domestic, and the company has even internalized more parts fabrication to reduce supplier costs. Maglica has also kept the retail costs of his products the same as they were in the 1970's, which he achieved through automation and a general lack of desire for profit taking. Sure he could make more money by going overseas, but he doesn't feel the need (as in, do those rich bastards really NEED that 10th car and 20,000 sq. ft. home?). Things are not perfect, as Mag posted an $11M loss last year, and had to lay off 200 workers (I believe the first layoff in the company's history). Maglica said it was the worst day of his life when he issued the pink slips. Of course this model may not work for larger public corporations, but maybe it really depends on the conscience of the company's leader.

Friday, September 24, 2010

Oh the ridiculous political theater

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_upshot/20100924/el_yblog_upshot/chris-christie-smacks-down-heckler

Apparently during a pro-Meg Whitman event, an audience member started to heckle her. Then for some reason NJ GOP governor Chris Christie was in attendance, and said (in an all too scripted fashion):

"You want to yell? Yell at me, but don't give her a hard time," Christie said into his microphone. But Christie didn't stop there: "It's people who raise their voices and yell and scream like you that are dividing this country," he said. "We're here to bring this country together, not divide it."

That is rich stuff. Let's examine the play-by-play: yell at me but don't give her a hard time - right out of the Hillary Clinton playbook to paint critics as sexists, and arouse sympathy for the poor defenseless woman candidate. Why would we want to yell at him, he is not part of CA government? He has no idea about our problems and probably barely knows Whitman. Next, people who yell and scream are dividing this country - uh, what the heck were you GOP astroturf (for fake grassroots) folks during the health care debate? I know that the Tea Party doesn't necessarily speak for the GOP, but they do 95% of the time, and they were being much more disruptive in front of much more important speakers than Meg Whitman. Heck even a GOP Congressman called PRESIDENT Obama a liar to his face in a televised event in DC. Where was Christie's protest for that disrespect? So yeah, he's absolutely right that the yellers are dividing this country, except that his party has been doing more of it, and causing more division (with corporate and right wing media support of course). Lastly, we're here to bring this country together - yeah Bush claimed to want to do that too. Not a SINGLE GOP policy that I can think of today is designed to bring anyone closer together, except for maybe business and Washington. Conservatism (in its present American manifestation) is all about exclusion and discrimination (gay marriage, immigration, racial profiling in the name of national security, good health care only for those who can afford it, you name it).

I really wouldn't be surprised if even the Whitman heckler was arranged by her campaign. Her $108M of personal expenditures (a record) has to go to something besides bumper stickers and stupid TV ads.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Side-effects of the border fence with Mexico



http://www.examiner.com/cable-tv-in-national/the-fence-on-hbo-a-rory-kennedy-film-about-the-us-mexico-border?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.thefencefilm.com/the_issues.html

A few years ago we had an interesting discussion about illegal immigration, and noted that the US border fence significantly stymied illegal entry in the San Diego area (but may have just diverted it elsewhere). But what have we sacrificed in order to reap the "benefits" of the fence? A recent HBO documentary explored the topic from financial, human, and environmental perspectives.

Congress created and Bush signed the secure fence act in 2006, and so far we have spent $3B in public funds on about 700 miles of fence (in some cases $1.9M/mile). But the US-Mexico border is about 2,200 miles long, so there are significant gaps to say the least, and even inexplicable gaps between sections of fence (see attached jpg called "Tecatehole"), which pretty much invalidates the entire purpose of the fence in that area. Due to the scale of the project over multiple counties and states, the government has contracted numerous companies to build the fence, which is comprised of at least 12 different configurations. In New Mexico, the builders erected the fence on Mexican territory by accident, so they had to tear it down and rebuild it. In Texas, the border is the Rio Grande River, which is quite serpentine. Building a border fence along the river would have been very difficult and expensive, so they built a straight-line fence in the US instead, trapping acres of US territory (even containing TOWNS populated by US citizens) in a no-man's land between the river and the fence (similar to the plight of some Palestinians in the occupied West Bank due to the Israeli wall). In the attached image named "fortbrowngolfcourse", you can see Mexico at the bottom, the RIo Grande snaking through, a golf course on US land on the other side, and the border fence actually runs horizontally north of the course, creating a very bizarre landscape. But what about the "virtual fence" of fancy Boeing technology designed to detect and alert the Border Patrol of illegal crossings? It's an utter failure (the system flags tumbleweeds and wildlife as false positives) and the DoD has suspended all funding for the project, after committing tens of millions already. From what I can tell, the fence's practical purpose is just to reduce the number of miles that the Border Patrol, National Guard, Minutemen, and other concerned parties have to patrol.

The fence was built to ostensibly protect us from terrorism and the social costs of illegal immigration (but what about losing the social benefits?). Of all the successful and attempted terror attacks since 2000, not a single perpetrator entered the US through the Mexican border. Most came by plane to eastern cities, and some were home grown. About 500,000 people illegally crossed the border into the US per year before the fence went up. Guess what the tally is now - about the same, and the global recession was a bigger factor than the fence. They've just been forced into more remote desert regions where the border is not fenced, but this has also resulted in a more perilous journey, with about 1-2 people dying every day attempting to cross (and extra expenses for US authorities trying to rescue imperiled crossers). What about the horrible Mexican drug war and the influx of narcotics into America that puts our kids in danger? Isn't the fence keeping the trouble out of our backyards? Arizona apparently disagrees, and there have been some drug-related deaths. Most of the drugs are smuggled in semi trucks at border crossings, not through areas where the fence exists. The estimated amount of drugs entering the US has not decreased due to the fence.

It's also easy to overlook the environmental costs. The bill that Bush signed included waivers to most major EPA regulations, and the fence even slices though federally protected wildlife refuges (wetlands such as the Rio Grande are some of the most biodiverse and productive ecosystems on Earth). Many terrestrial animals in the southwest are migratory, and may travel hundreds of miles to reach various resources and habitats, but now the fence has blocked their ability to travel as they have been doing for millennia (see confused deer in the "borderfence" jpg). Like the BP spill, it may be hard to quantify the environmental damage of this impediment. The fence has even caused natural disasters. The border area near Nogales flooded during recent heavy rains. Nogales is elevated higher than the US, so runoff usually flows north. But the fence (in this case it was a solid barrier, not a row of piles) acted as a dam, which caused flooding in Nogales' downtown and even 2 drownings (see nogales.jpg).

I can't believe what a forgiving and tolerant people Mexicans are. For how much we and our fence have abused them in recent years (not to mention the racism and crimes earlier in US history), you'd think they would have turned Jihadist on us by now.

Monday, September 13, 2010

More on nuclear power

Since my dad is a nuclear engineer and I've maintained an interest in nuclear power over the years I'll do my best to share what I know (i.e. my own $.02)...
Apart from the obvious and still legitimate concerns for plant accidents...

Uranium mining (on the whole) is not that expensive and not that dirty (especially when compared to some of the other things which we pull out of the ground).
Obviously the up-front costs of plant construction are huge...

Comparing the incentives is a bit like comparing apples and oranges; nuclear is a mature industry and (as such) doesn't require the type of incentives which renewables do in order to offer a compelling case as a power source on a cost per kilowatt hour basis.
With current technology, nuclear plant...

Take a look at what the German government just did with their plants; there's no technical obstacle to keeping many of the plants in service and (as such) clean, cheap (i.e. <$.05 kW/hr.) electricity from nuclear sources is as much a matter of political will as it is anything else.
The US hasn't built a new nuclear plant since 1978...

Fuel storage is something my dad's company has been working on for more than ten years.  Although you are correct in stating that NIMBY is a problem (it always has been) dry storage does offer a means for utilities to bridge the gap between fuel pools which are full and have outlived their originally intended duration and more centralized (i.e. Yucca Mountain) storage.  Approval for new plants is also a matter of will and (given the state of the economy and energy security challenges commodity price changes pose) you may see the pendulum of will swing back to where it came from (i.e. accepting nuclear power as something less than ideal but nevertheless necessary).
All things considered, the DOE estimates that ...

I disagree with your numbers (Diablo Canyon has been producing energy since the mid-80's at <$.05kW/hr.) and your assessment of "net energy" (you've probably misinterpreted the numbers as it would seem highly unlikely that a single nuclear power plant would be built if 100KW would need to be spent to create 30KW).
Then there's the old hope that technology will save us...

The advancements are significant but can't be referenced easily (or casually, as it were) since most of the advancements haven't been implemented in practice...  The fact remains that (in France) fuel is simply re-run through the reactor again and again and again (thus solving both a fuel and a waste problem).  The degree of attractiveness of nuclear energy is very much in the eye of the beholder; how attractive did nuclear energy look in 2007 when OPEC had the U.S. by the balls (yet again) and the NIMBY crowd from the 1970s was shouting "drill baby drill!"?  I've recommended it to you before but if you're serious about understanding energy you should read Huber & Mills' The Bottomless Well since the authors (although espousing a ridiculous supply-side rhetoric which is much more fitting for rock stars than economists) do a fairly decent job of breaking down the energy pie (i.e. what we produce, what we consume) as well as the changes to the same over time.
Humans will always tinker with clever ways to generate energy...

I agree that engineering decisions are all about optimization under constraint... but I think you're presenting a false dichotomy when you suggest that our choice is nuclear or renewables: do you honestly not see that your argument would be the one which an oil giant would make (i.e. one of "divide and conquer")?

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Well, you don't really source any of your claims, and nuclear power has gone out of favor in northern CA for some years now so we don't have much local access to the industry. Maybe my points also come from a biased source (a text on environmental science and sustainability: http://www.amazon.com/Environmental-Science-Principles-Connections-Solutions/dp/0495383376), but the author's claims are backed by DOE studies.

How do you know that U-mining is "not that dirty"? Tell that to the low-wage Navajo miners the gov't exploited during the Cold War: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_Exposure_Compensation_Act.

Large scale mining is always dirty with a lot of waste-rock generated, which is radioactive in uranium's case and pollutes groundwater: http://www.articlesbase.com/science-articles/problems-of-uranium-mining-762482.html. I don't know if the U-industry is worse than coal or copper, but mining never has a small eco-footprint.

Even if you don't accept that history, my basic point was that uranium extraction requires energy (which nuclear advocates want us to forget), just like hydrocarbons or renewables. You need to spend energy to make energy. Some may argue that the nuclear cycle is overall "efficient", but please provide calculations then. Some may say that the nuclear cycle is much less carbon-intensive, so I'd like to see proof (ideally from neutral sources). Yes energy and pollution are associated with wind and solar farms also, but after scale-up, fair subsidies, and other improvements, those energy solutions can probably become environmentally and economically sustainable if we change our electricity consumption habits. The sun always has and always will be (by humanity's time scale) Earth's best and cheapest energy source, so why not exploit that rather than the dangerous, expensive, and complex nuclear cycle? Hydrocarbons and nuclear will NEVER be environmentally sustainable, and may not be economically viable as the easy-access reserves are depleted, and if you subtract gov't subsidies. Bottom line, no energy project in the world's history is more expensive than a MW-scale nuclear plant. This is partly because we have to build in so many safeguards in order to avoid accidents, which could be worse than the BP spill. Since the consequences are so dire, that cost will always be associated with nuclear. One can never engineer zero risk.

I don't know why you mention the German example, since they've had 3 major accidents in the 1980's, and partly because of that their government has decided to gradually phase out all their 17 plants by 2020: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Germany#Accidents. Though Merkel's government is trying to reverse the decision amid protests: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/germanypoliticsenergynuclear.

Dumb humans build wildly inefficient and net-negative projects all the time. Look at the 3 Gorges Dam in China or the Joint Strike Fighter. We love our Rube Goldberg devices. It may be hard to believe that nuclear is so inefficient, but that shows you how effective industry PR and lobbying has been over the years. I didn't misrepresent data, but I admit that I did selectively present it. Converting electricity to heat is also an efficiency-losing step, so nuclear power that creates electricity for heat is a net energy loss, and looks bad considering other heating methods (passive solar, natural gas). So yeah, I was using the most extreme example, or the worst possible application of nuclear power. If you're using nuclear to power your blender or computer, the energy ratios are better, but still not enough to justify the costs IMO.

I never said that the choice was exclusively nuclear or renewables, but really there aren't many other choices out there. Large nations' energy portfolios should be diverse. But most of us generally understand the pros and cons of hydrocarbon-based electricity, so nuclear and renewables are the only other major alternatives. The suitability of each is case-dependent, but overall you haven't really made any arguments why renewables are inferior to nuclear if the playing field was level. How would you envision our nation's energy economy today if during the OPEC embargo, the government devoted all the resources earmarked for nuclear to renewables? Do you really think we'd be worse off?

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My comments are inline...

Well, you don't really source any of your claims...

As I said my dad is a nuclear engineer and I've maintained an interest in nuclear power over the years so I'm simply sharing what I know; I have an engineering degree as well and most of these things are common sense (for an engineer, at least)...
How do you know that U-mining is "not that dirty"?...

Agreed (mining is a dirty business)... but your point was that uranium mining is somehow especially dirty (which I refute); on the whole it's not necessarily any dirtier than other forms of mining (we probably aren't missing any mountaintops in West Virginia due to uranium mining).
Even if you don't accept that history...

Huber and Mills do a pretty good job of making this point in detail.  Also, for the purposes of this discussion let's say I am a nuclear advocate; I've never asked anyone to forget anything (like, ever).
Some may argue that the nuclear cycle is overall "efficient", but please provide calculations then.

You should be a little more precise when talking about efficiency (like the difference between thermodynamic or Rankine-cycle efficiency, which has a theoretical upper-bound which applies to all steam-based energy generation, say ~40%) and solar-cell efficiency (which is limited to less than 20% with even the newest PV cells).  The numbers you cited with respect to "net energy" aren't really apples-to-apples (which, in most conversations you'll ever hear in the media, boils down to cost per kilowatt-hour as a measure of efficiency).
Some may say that the nuclear cycle is much less carbon-intensive, so I'd like to see proof (ideally from neutral sources).

The daily operation from a nuclear plant doesn't create any carbon output.
Yes energy and pollution are associated with wind and solar farms also...

Actually, they can become sustainable independent of changes to consumption habits.  
The sun always has and always will be (by humanity's time scale) Earth's best and cheapest energy source, so why not exploit that rather than the dangerous, expensive, and complex nuclear cycle?

It's a great idea... but the technology has only increased by a few percentage points in terms of efficiency since the late 1970's.  I suspect the reasons are the same as the answer to the question "Why don't more homes have passive water heaters?"
Hydrocarbons and nuclear will NEVER be environmentally sustainable, and may not be economically viable as the easy-access reserves are depleted, and if you subtract gov't subsidies.

The deadline for exhaustion of hydrocarbons has come and gone more than once and nuclear is not strictly (by definition) "renewable" (i.e. you would run out of uranium and/or waste fuel) at some point... but for all intensive purposes such distinctions are academic.  Also, if your metric for environmental sustainability is acceptance by The Sierra Club then you should probably double-check your assertion.
Bottom line, no energy project in the world's history is more expensive than a MW-scale nuclear plant.

No, this is basically not true; the operating cost for a plant (after it's built) is (as in the case of PG&E's Diablo Canyon) something like $.03/kWh (some plants are known to run at an even lower cost hence my very loose off-the-cuff metric of <$.05); although the plants are capitally intensive you would have a very difficult time demonstrating that the initial capital outlay is somehow more flawed than building some massive piece of pork like a sports stadium (and definitely an impossible time when you consider how long a given reactor can run given the political will v/s how quickly a team can move given the... well... lack of will).  Also, I might argue that developing an operating system is more expensive than a nuclear power plant since the metric you are using (implicitly) does not account for engineering man-hours.
This is partly because we have to build in so many safeguards in order to avoid accidents...

Yes, but you can engineer next to zero risk, which is what a nuclear power plant embodies. Also, most modern reactors don't afford disaster on the scale of Chernobyl (let alone Macondo or Prudoe Bay).  
I don't know why you mention the German example...

I mention it because there was recent news that the "sunset" for the plants has been extended; the extension came by way of executive fiat (and not as a result of any change to the daily operations of the plants in question or to any of the fundamental aspects of the technology).  Also, one can understand why such a decision would be made: if your car is in good repair and it's been paid why would you seek to replace it with another vehicle which is only arguably more compelling (especially when you needs for transportation services are increasing faster than you provide them for yourself)?
Dumb humans build wildly inefficient and net-negative projects all the time. Look at the 3 Gorges Dam in China or the Joint Strike Fighter. We love our Rube Goldberg devices.

Some kinds of toys for certain kinds of boys; I can't recall how the expression goes.
It may be hard to believe that nuclear is so inefficient...

I believe I stated as much in identifying the problematic comparison... but you should keep in mind who you are trying to convince.  Unless you happen to be living in "gasland" the natural gas (which affords a cheap, clean means of heating your home) also takes energy to extract, refine, and distribute; solar films require rare earth elements and even solar panels require semiconductor fabrication facilities.  There's no free lunch (liquid or otherwise).
I never said that the choice was exclusively nuclear or renewables...

I suppose I fail to understand what you mean by "if the playing field was level"; there's no question that The Obama Administration is doing everything within its power to advance an agenda of energy diversity (and security) by way of renewables.  Without the incentives being offered renewables would not even be conceivable barring the most extreme circumstances (i.e. $150/barrel oil, supply disruptions, a capacity for America to transcend its political cycles and learn from its previous missteps) and/or government mandate.  Besides, the onus is not on me to prove that renewables are somehow inferior (I'm actually quite keen about them); rather, the onus is on you to somehow show nuclear is inferior and/or not a valid piece of the energy diversity and security puzzle since that is how you started the discussion)!

How would you envision our nation's energy economy today if during the OPEC embargo, the government devoted all the resources earmarked for nuclear to renewables? Do you really think we'd be worse off? 

Like, would we have avoided the post-apocalyptic nightmare brought on by that peanut-farming nuke-tender Jimmy Carter and his hair-brained policies of moderate consumption?  Um... no.

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I never said U-mining was especially dirty vs. other forms of mining. If you reference my first email, I actually said it was merely energy-intensive, but so is most mining. The more I read about radon contamination and groundwater risk, I'm starting to think that it is a lot dirtier. And for the record, I believe mountaintop removal is now prohibited in the US, partly because of eco-protests, but mostly because all the superficial coal is exploited, thereby necessitating costlier and more dangerous subterranean mining. That increases the chance of an Upper Big Branch-like accident, even if mining firms follow regulations, but that is the price we are apparently willing to pay in the West for our lifestyle. Of course the Chinese coal industry is much worse with 100's of miners dying annually.

Your tangent on thermodynamic efficiency misses the point. Of course all energy systems are inefficient from a purely input-output standpoint. Even the living cell, which is one of the most efficient machines ever, loses at least 10% of ATP chemical bond energy to heat waste, but that is the 2nd law in action. The net energy I discussed is how much energy output you get out of a modality vs. the energy it took to produce and implement it. Yes a KW wind turbine is inefficient, but if for argument's sake they only cost $1 to make and install, then their inherent energy conversion inefficiency can be overcome by volume. If a perfectly Carnot efficient GW-scale device costs $1T to make, 20 years to build, and has a 40 year service life, then it's probably not worth it. Thermo efficiency is an especially ludicrous argument for you to make for renewables, since by definition their energy sources are nearly infinite from humanity's viewpoint (i.e. we're not going to run out of sun or wind or wave power). If we can just harness a bit of it economically, we're already better off than nuclear.

Don't be naive - of course the daily ops of a nuclear plant produces carbon (workers' commute, transporting uranium and other materials, maintenance and repair work, etc.). Surely a nuclear plant's carbon footprint is lower than that of a coal plant, but it's not zero. And as I said before, the nuclear plant is but one aspect of the nuclear cycle, which spews carbon every step of the way.

Of course nuclear isn't renewable, that's my whole point from the get-go. I don't think the renewable distinction is academic. Forget climate change and other pollution for a moment, because as you said we've probably seen peak oil pass us by, and at some point it will cost more energy to extract oil than the useful energy we derive from it. Humans want to develop scaled-up renewable energy partly because it avoids that limitation (most modalities at least, since in the case of biofuels, it's not renewable if we consume it faster than the plant feedstock can grow). Also remember that primitive human societies started with renewable power because that is what was most available (obviously), such as the water wheel, windmill, and burning wood for heat. Over half of humans today still rely on those sources, and it mostly works because they live fairly green lifestyles. We both seem to agree that renewables can also work for industrialized societies with the proper conditions in place. Therefore I don't understand your pejorative comment about the Sierra Club's definition of "sustainable". There's nothing wrong with their definition, which is probably the universal definition anyway. An energy source is sustainable if it's use doesn't cause irreversible environmental degradation (in the human time scale at least), and if we won't run out of it under current and projected consumption rates. Almost every human activity causes some environmental damage. We have to decide how much harm we are willing to commit, and how much abuse we think the planet can take before there are major consequences, that in turn put our societies in danger (like deforestation and irresponsible agriculture causing soil degradation and eventually food shortage).

I said no energy project in history is more expensive than a nuclear plant, which is absolutely true and I challenge you to find an industrial exception (not including pork-barrel research projects like the Hadron Collider or Livermore Lab fusion laser). I am referring to the COST of its construction and maintenance, not the cost of the energy coming out once it is built, which is cheating. I also challenge you to support your 5 cents/kWh claim with an independent reference that also takes the entire fuel cycle costs into account. You can't ignore the up-front costs, nor the building time, nor the effective service life (all sources I've consulted state that Cold War plants have an absolute maximum life of 60 years, and that is with top maintenance and public support, so after that you need to decommission them and build a new one - both very costly). I have no idea why you are comparing all this to a sports stadium, which is neither an energy project, nor as expensive to build and run.

There is absolutely no such thing as zero risk; it's like Carnot efficiency, an asymptote. Humans can get pretty close, but not perfect. I suppose you can argue that such a level is "essentially zero risk". But even for modern plant designs that can run without humans for X years (in the event of a pandemic or neutron bomb or something), after that they will melt down or fall apart and contaminate. And I don't think plants are designed to withstand an 8.0 quake, crashing 747, or warfare. Yes we try to build plants far away from faults and such, but you can't protect them 100%.

Maybe the Obama admin. is trying to do "everything in its power" to advance renewables, but their power is limited and it's late in the game. What I mean by a level playing field should be obvious - due to socioeconomic and political considerations over the years, dirty energy (including nuclear) has gotten much more financial/government support than renewables. So Obama can't make up for that decades-long gap. The GOP essentially killed the Obama energy agenda anyway, at least for his first term. And without a carbon tax and end to nuclear subsidies, renewables will never have a really fair shake because we'd still be externalizing the environmental and health costs of dirty energy. I've already said that scaled-up renewable energy also produces some carbon and pollution, but less than what nuclear or hydrocarbons produce. And of course I agree that energy conservation is better than needing to build more energy capacity, even if it is renewable. I've said that in at least 3 previous emails, so I didn't feel the need to repeat it here.

The onus may be on me, but I think I've sufficiently supported my point. On the other hand, you have made selective and tangential counter points that aren't supported by any data. Why is nuclear inferior? Cost and pollution. You failed to produce any evidence to the contrary (and you've especially avoided the topics of costly plant decommissioning and waste management). All you've basically said is, "Trust me that the electricity coming out of a nuclear plant costs 5 cents/kWh if you ignore the up-front costs." The whole point of nuclear's inferiority is its huge up-front (and back-end) costs.

And one last point - there is no nuclear power without fuel supply. I forgot to add this to my original email but an MIT study estimates that the Earth has enough uranium for 1,000 GW-scale reactors for at least 50 years. Sounds great, but actually our ability to discover, mine, and produce fuel-grade material will not be able to keep up with the industry's hopes for growth. Each GW-size plant requires about 200 metric tons of uranium per year. Multiply that over all plants, and fuel production can't keep up: in 2004 plants needed 68,000 metric tons of fuel, but all mines only produced 39,000, with the remainder coming from Cold War inventories, recycling, and conversions of weapons-grade material. But our stockpiles are due to run out by 2020, possibly leading to a nuclear fuel shortage. I guess you could argue that we'll just make new mines. Do a Google search for the uranium mining industries in Australia, Colorado, and the Dakotas, and see how that is working out.

http://www.oilcrisis.com/nuclear/WhyNuclearNotSustainable.htm

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i lived about 15 miles away from TMI in 1979.  I can tell you right now, they lied about the emmissions from that leak. Fish kills, dead cows with sores were found downwind in the first couple of days after the leak.
 My father was not a nuclear engineer, but he was a good soldier and he watched over a big hole in almagordo testing grounds 5 years after the bomb was tested.  My father died from multifoci maligniancies that are indicative of radiation exposure(I did work in environmental cancinogen research and the PI I worked with wrote many papers regarding this type of cancer associated exclusively with ionizing radiation exposure).  he was never sick at almagordo and it took 50 years to catch up with him but it killed him nonetheless.  I am supposing that most likely I will suffer the same fate from my exposures in 1979.
The benefit to these plants is the money's made and the plant's long gone before the illnesses start.  With current trends, most likely they would claim that there is little proof tying the rad. exp. and the cancers together.  Is this worth it to you?  Is this the risk you want to take?  Then the contractors, the plant owners and all who profit from the building of these plants should be bound to live in the shadow of the cooling towers. 
Also, TMI is not paid off.  Lmerick power plant(35mi. east of TMI) is not paid off.  That region has one of the highest electricity rates in the country due to the payments on these plants. 

Sunday, September 12, 2010

The 1910 fire: how "this land" became "your land"

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129750575

A NYT reporter recently wrote a book about the biggest forest fire in US history that most of us probably never heard of, and how it changed America's thinking on public land and even political identity. To set the stage: men of privilege Teddy Roosevelt and Gifford Pinchot had their "green epiphanies", unveiled their conservation agenda, created the fledgling National Parks and US Forest Service (that managed protected national forest land in all states that summed up to an area the size of France) amid outrage from the Guilded Age robber barons and industrialists, who believed that they were entitled to as much free land as they wanted. Our government already gave - yes gave - the railroads 35M acres of land (the size of New England) to build on and apparently that wasn't enough. I understand America's need to encourage railroad development for economic growth, but at least pay rent on that land after the RR's became profitable, which they mostly did in spades. But TR's term ended and pro-business Taft took office, with senators from Western states working to undermine TR's reforms, gut the FS budget, and return things to the way they were.

Then in the summer of 1910, a perfect storm of conditions occurred: a very dry summer, many lightning storms, and hurricane-force high winds hit the US northwest. A huge conflagration developed that spread all over eastern WA, northern ID, and western MT, and consumed 3M acres in total (the size of CT). For perspective, the worst CA wildfire during the recent dry years consumed 100K acres near LA. Initially Taft did nothing, like Bush during Katrina. As Rahm Emmanuel said, "don't let a crisis go to waste," and the FS was called into action to justify its existence (since much of the fire was on their land). A bunch of idealistic Ivy League novices rushed to the fire zones, and the government also enlisted the help of a motley crew of Buffalo Soldiers, cheap immigrant laborers, and local volunteers from boom towns right out of "Deadwood" to dig huge fire lines to contain the blaze. At the time, rural firefighting didn't exist, so it was like a Chinese fire drill as FS rangers tried to improvise a solution. But they didn't understand fire physics and many workers died. As local towns were evacuated (and even larger cities like Missoula and Denver were at risk), "Titanic" like scenes of panicked people rushing the last lifeboat ensued, with US soldiers forcing men at gunpoint to stay behind as the women and children were evacuated first. The last trains out of town often passed over trestle bridges that were on fire, but fortunately held up long enough. As you may have expected, the black Buffalo Soldiers were not greeted with much love by the local rednecks, though their heroic actions literally saved at least one (all white) town, despite all the racial hatred flung at them during the whole process.   

The FS's fire containment efforts were a failure, and the fire eventually died out due to lack of sustaining fuel and natural barriers. But the event changed public consciousness about the FS and land conservation. While western politicians tried to paint the FS employees as "hippie socialists" of the time, and some even claimed that the fire was "God's wrath" for America trying to deter the efforts of capitalists to exercise dominion over nature, the media helped create a public perception of the FS as heroic. So the FS was here to stay, and public land remained public. We often think of national forest land as containing the iconic Yosemite Falls or rock arches in Utah, but 90% of forest land is not parkland. It's just unspoiled America the way it was before America was even born. It's our natural riches. And like Woody Guthrie sang, "this land is your land, this land is my land." Residents can enjoy nature in every state, with the only possible obstruction being a permit or modest fee that is even tax-deductible. It was a revolutionary idea at the time, and most other nations had nothing similar (in Old Europe, the lords own the countryside), but since then some have emulated us. And all of that may not have been possible without TR, the FS, and the great fire.

Decades before the modern environmental movement and climate change debates, they just did it because it was the right thing for America and our future generations. And it was no small feat considering America's business influences in politics; the next great legislation would be the Endangered Species Act, Clean Water/Air Acts, and creation of the EPA under Nixon, partly in response to another calamity, the horrible Santa Barbara oil spill (it's interesting that the 2 greenest US presidents were Republicans). Maybe after the BP disaster, another round of green reforms will occur? But the billion-dollar DC lobbying machine didn't exist under TR and Nixon, so I don't know. Just imagine if Taft and the industrialists got their way and the FS was no more. How would America look today? Eastern forests were almost completely clear-cut before TR saved what remained, so would western states face the same fate just so the Rockefellers and Vanderbilts of the world could lay more track and sell more 2x4s? Forest destruction is implicated in the desertification of the Middle East in ancient times, and parts of China/Haiti today (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkpVk_GBnOs). Society is not possible without healthy land, yet we often take that for granted, since America is so big and can withstand a lot of damage without us noticing.  

But not all of the great fire's legacy was positive. The FS budget and duties were expanded, but now the service took on a firefighting role. No one wanted to see the events of 1910 repeated, but fires are as natural as rains. It's nature's recycling, and in fact some tree species can't even reproduce without fire stimulating seeds to mature. Forests that haven't burnt in a long time are powder kegs for a lightning bolt or careless human. Only recently has the FS accepted this and adopted a more "controlled burns" mentality. But unfortunately, the US public now expects the FS to contain every forest fire within 24 hours, and after 1910 FS chiefs expected to lose their jobs if they didn't. Their record of diligence gave Americans a false sense of security to live in fire-prone rural areas, and now over 20M of us live near a national forest. Those people vote and pay taxes, so they expect and demand an irrational level of fire protection. Every summer the West is now locked in a costly firefighting battle with Mother Nature, and the "fire industrial complex" has emerged (the author's term).

The fire also changed American politics. TR was so fed up with Taft's handling of the fire and disdain for the FS that he and his progressive allies broke off from the pro-business Republicans to create the Bull Moose Progressive Party (at the time, the Democrats were mostly Southern racists and conservatives). TR ran against Taft on that ticket but lost, and since then, progressive Republicans have mainly died out. So the modern GOP have their roots with Taft and Hoover, which later gave rise to the Reagans, Gingrichs, and Bushes of the world, whose hands-off approach to the energy industry partly led to the worst oil spill in US history. Amazing how some lightning, wind, and trees could change the world.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

News roundup




Not again... oil rig blows up in Gulf (not the same well):  
 
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_gulf_rig_explosion

The petrochemical money behind part of the anti-Obama, anti-Democrat tea party "movement":

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer

You probably haven't heard of David & Charles Koch, but they control the 2nd largest private company in the US (Koch Industries), which is a major energy company as well as the people who brought you Brawny paper towels, Dixie cups, Georgia-Pacific lumber, Stainmaster carpet, and Lycra. The Koch family has an oil legacy, and their rich father helped build refineries for the Soviet Union under Stalin. But after Koch's Russian business partners were caught up in Stalin's purges, Pappy Koch became strongly anti-communist, and one of the John Birch Society's founding members. The sons and current heirs to the empire modified those feelings into a rejection of centralized and federal government. They are hardcore libertarians and anti-environmentalists who are fundamentally devoted to declawing or dismantling the federal government (specifically taxation and environmental regulation), partly due to their financial interests in reducing pollution regulation, taxes, and fines for their businesses. This is quite hypocritical because the Kochs have also enjoyed millions in government energy subsidies, tax breaks, and no-bid contracts over the years, especially during the Bush years.

The Kochs founded the Cato institute, and one actually ran for vice president against Reagan/Bush from the right, but the ticket failed miserably (probably too extreme for 1980's America). Therefore the Kochs decided that direct political participation was not the best way to further their agenda, and think tanks can only spread a message so far, so now they are one of the biggest architects of the "tea party movement." One of the TP's major funding sources is Americans for Prosperity, which is run by the Kochs. So these mobs of grassroots, angry white people who don't like the feeling that their country is slipping away, and believe that their protests are acts of patriotism against socialist tyranny, are really just pawns of big business hoping to derail Obama's progressive agenda to keep their profits up, regardless of how the country and world suffer as a result. Of course the teabaggers are a very diverse group, from outright racists to mildly frustrated, law abiding conservatives, so it's not like the Kochs control them all. But their money and covert influence, with the complicit or fortuitous assistance of conservative media and somewhat justifiable public concern over the size and reach of government, is quietly advancing their ultra-libertarian agenda that most sub-billionaire Americans probably do not share.

How Obama can deal with the misinformation over his identity:

http://www.newsweek.com/2010/08/28/alter-how-obama-can-fight-the-lies.html