Basically, the thesis is that, all things being equal, political coalitions for redistribution form when the middle class has a lot in common with the poor. In the US this isn't the case because of race - that racial politics that turn the middle class against the (largely) minority poor. It explains a lot about why Republicans are able to capture much of the lower middle class white vote (despite many economic policies by Republicans being against their self-interest) by fanning the flames of racial resentment between that income group and truly poor (mostly) minorities.
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Regarding the paper (of which I understood about 2%, but thank goodness for the glossary!), it will be interesting to see what happens to the 2 major parties in 2012. I guess skew is very extreme now in America, so despite that, if the GOP regain control of DC, that may validate the racial component of his theory, or suggest that the poor-middle class gap is much larger now vs. the Great Society days (when the Dems dominated gov't)? Of course more factors besides race and economics may decide an election (the candidates), so I would still put my money on BO to prevail since the GOP field is so pathetic. Though with all the gerrymandering and economic frustration out there, it will be unlikely that the GOP will lose the House.
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http://cew.georgetown.edu/
Speaking of inequalities, here are some salary tables taken from recent census data. It shows that pretty much across the board, on average you're going to make less money than a comparable white male (assuming you're not a white male). Over a 30-year career, these differences can add up to hundreds of thousands of dollars.
It's kind of sad that the highest-paying fields are ones that are male-dominated (business, engineering), and the lowest-paying are female-heavy (education, psychology, social work). But even within those fields, women and minorities make less. And this is 2011.
Looking back, I should have studied petroleum engineering and sold out with BP! Of course when I was in college, oil was $15/barrel.
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Yeah one of the interesting things about the Great Society debate was that poor were often depicted as "noble poor" - i.e. poor white people that were down on their luck and needed a hand up. Contrast that with Ronald Reagan's attack on welfare, in which poor people on welfare were depicted as blacks that were "strapping young bucks buying t-bone steaks." These are of course generalities, but there is a strong correlation in the US between decreasing support for social welfare programs and the racialization of the poor. It's even come to the point where West Virginia, one of the biggest bastions of white poverty, is in danger of turning Republican and electing senators that promise to vote against poverty support programs that are a major lifeline to the people of the state.
There's a lot of psychological research that suggests that humans generally tend to sympathize and empathize most with people that most look like us. T and J, I'm not sure if you remember or not, but on one of the first days at C, at lunch one day we self-organized, with all of the whites sitting at one table and all of the Asians sitting at another. I think you're seeing some of the same effect in Europe in France, etc. where support for social welfare programs decreases as immigrants are seen increasingly as primary beneficiaries. Fortunately, I think this tendency of in-group identification based on skin color can at least party be overcome - young people generally seem to be very much less concerned with racial politics than their parents' generation (and the generation before that - the "greatest generation" that managed to be perhaps be one of the most actively racist of all generations in the US).
As for BO's election chances, economics and race play an important role, although according to papers I've read, there is significant variance depending on the specific candidates in the race. The fact that the best candidates the Republicans have now is Mitt Romney (who will basically have to cede the one issue that Obama really pissed people off - health care) means that, while not a walk in the park, I definitely agree that it raises his chances.
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Yes as you said, there are many more poor whites than poor minorities in America, but the percentage in poverty is higher in most minority communities. As the labor union-Dem Party relationship continues to weaken (or at least become less of a priority for Dem campaign financing and organizing), I think we will see less support from the center-left for labor and poverty issues - especially during the current fad of austerity and entitlements debates. This is unfortunate because the Dems may see themselves lose more and more of the poor white centrist and independent vote. But then again, even if they were able to mind control the Republicans in Congress and enact some redistributive economic policies, the right wing spinsters would declare it socialist fascism (if that even makes sense), so the direct beneficiaries of the legislation may actually rail against it as you said.
The racialization of the presidency is interesting too. Attached is a figure from Wikipedia showing how the states voting split changed from 2004 to 2008. The image caption is at the end of this email. As you said, WV is one of the biggest centers of white poverty, yet during the Great Recession they actually voted slightly more conservative instead of with Obama. States where blacks are a large % of the population had mixed results: LA went more GOP like WV, while GA and SC moved heavily to the left, but still went to McCain. I think race had a lot to do with that. Obama got more blacks to the voting booths in those states, but also awoke the white suburbs and trailer parks against him. Of course not all blacks and not all racists vote, but some of the data doesn't really make sense without race.
Speaking of the election, I heard that loser Santorum threw his hat in the ring today. He had some battle cry along the lines of, "Obama took office with so much hope and trust from the American people. But he ruined the economy, grew the size of gov't, and took away our freedom." He didn't even mention health care specifically, but if the GOP is going to run that general message (even if the facts don't corroborate), I guess we'll see how John Q. Voter responds. I just hope that the GOP field torches itself during the primaries "out-conservatizing" each other (and hopefully with many revelations of gay sexting and love children), and then Obama can just finish off the survivor. He'd only need like a $10 campaign war chest, and could tell the big funders and corporate interests to piss off. But of course I'm dreaming. Obama has let us down a lot since 2008, but we really have no choice but to give him a chance to redeem himself considering the alternatives. Even an internal challenge from Hillary would be ridiculous, since she is even more of a sellout.
From the US census:
38% of Mississippi's population that was black in 2009. Although New York had the largest number of blacks of any state, Mississippi had the largest share of blacks in its total population. Blacks also made up more than a quarter of the population in Louisiana (33 percent), Georgia (31 percent), Maryland (31 percent), South Carolina (29 percent) and Alabama (27 percent). They comprised 55 percent of the population in the District of Columbia.
Wiki:
Swing by state. States are listed by (increasing) percentage of Democratic votes, showing how the share of the vote changed between 2004 and 2008. Only five states trended more Republican: Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.
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