Sunday, March 29, 2015

Starbucks' #RaceTogether

By now you guys have probably heard the hoopla about Starbucks' proposed #RaceTogether campaign to encourage customers and baristas to have frank discussions about race issues. Maybe the idea was noble, but the communication and execution left much to be desired, obviously. It comes off as out-of-touch, know-it-all, do-gooder, liberal Seattle rich white men telling the rest of America how to fix its racial issues (without doing any actual work themselves). Or even more cynical, some claim it is a shameless marketing ploy to capitalize on recent racial events like Ferguson to boost their brand and sales among minorities (a demo that is not core to Starbucks).
I will try to avoid getting too deep in the weeds here, but just some points to consider:

  • By focusing on race, Starbucks is unfairly putting the spotlight on their black-Latino employees and customers, who will likely need to play a larger role in the discussion. Why not name the campaign #Tolerance or #MoreUnderstanding, which is the end goal of #RaceTogether but could apply more broadly to any injustice or misunderstanding (like sexuality, religion, and poverty)?

  • If Starbucks expects its relatively low income and low education baristas to participate in complex race discussions, will they at least give them a raise and professional training? They were not hired on to do this job, so if they get new responsibilities, they should be compensated accordingly. 

  • Why not set aside a corner of their cafes for employees on break and customers to sit down and talk about issues, race or otherwise, in a more appropriate environment? It's obviously problematic to expect stressed baristas and impatient customers to engage in meaningful discussions during the morning rush, when all they want is their cup of overpriced Joe and to get on with their day (many comedians have touched on this point).

  • Instead of punting this issue to their baristas, why doesn't Starbucks' leadership actually lead by example? Their exec team and board are almost uniformly white upper-class men, even for Seattle standards. And that's probably why they OK'ed such a half-baked campaign. Did they consult minority groups and race studies experts beforehand? How about they improve the diversity programs within their org, and pay for professionals to hold race discussions among their workforce and customers, when they won't interfere with their core business operations?

  • Starbucks almost has no commercial presence in majority-minority neighborhoods like Ferguson and Harlem (for obvious business reasons, not necessarily racism). If they just want to have race discussions between their 20-something urban baristas and their mostly white yuppie clientele, I am not sure how much good that will do for our society and their company. Magic Johnson franchised many Starbucks in "less desirable" neighborhoods in SoCal, and recently sold them back to Starbucks. So that is a step in the right direction, but it was only because Magic took a chance and demonstrated to Corporate HQ that such cafes could be profitable (Seattle never wanted to expand into Compton on their own). But if Starbucks really cares about inclusion and social change, why is their brand and product so selectively targeted? Heck, even their #RaceTogether print ads were only depicting white hands holding coffee cups (which is about representative of their customer base - do you think many Ferguson folks can afford daily $4 frappucinos?).

  • Bottom line: if Starbucks wants to make a positive impact on race relations in America, they have the resources and influence to actually do it. But they'll need to invest seriously, fix their own house first, consult people who actually know what they're doing, and lead by example - not just pass the buck to their lowest workers while the leaders in their ivory tower pat themselves on the back.

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Elite colleges are not necessarily the place to get the best life prep

This is especially true for wealthier Americans and "elite" institutions, where admission is seen more as a status symbol (like a Tesla or a LV bag) rather than a vehicle for educating and cultivating a young person for the benefit of society (a university's true mission). But actually, the data suggest that graduates of elite schools do not have significantly better life outcomes on the whole vs. graduates from "moderate" state schools. Sure, there are some segments where your pedigree really matters, but do you want to spend the rest of your life in those circles, surrounded by pompous pricks (some snobby corners of tech, Wall Street, etc.)?

And of course two major drawbacks of attending an elite private school are (1) debt and (2) a more bubble experience (your peers will be more homogeneous, and you may not get exposure to many real-life challenges that help a student thrive in the adult world). Also, some students may feel complacent that admission is the endpoint - they made it. Life is just about marketing yourself and jumping through the hoops to earn some administrator's approval, and then you're on easy street.

But admission is actually just the start - students should be driven to maximize their precious opportunity and realize that it is just a first step along a path that has many greater challenges and learnings ahead. Students may feel entitled ("I'm going to have a degree from Yale - of course the top employers will want me, I'm so awesome!"), and then lose focus (or even get lazy) - while other similarly-talented students snubbed by the Ivies might have a chip on their shoulder, rededicating themselves at a state school to be the best they can be. And let's be honest - undergrad chemistry or econ at Harvard vs. Texas will be taught at about the same quality (and probably not much better than Coursera). The concepts and knowledge are identical - it's just how motivated the student is to think critically, set healthy goals, and apply the learnings productively. Upon graduation, which student will likely have more grit and tenacity to succeed in the workplace? Savvy employers know that character/fortitude is way more important than pedigree to help the org succeed.
Some other sick facts about the perverted system:

  • In some cases, families are paying admissions "coaches" $50K and starting at age 12 to get their resume in good enough shape to be competitive. Just imagine what message that is sending to the kid for what is required to get ahead.
  • Stanford set the record recently for a 5% undergrad admissions rate. Now the bar has moved so of course the Ivies will try to match. They often do this by advertising to students with good metrics, but low chance of admission (maybe no legacy or not from the right demos). This helps puff up their "exclusivity rating" by making the median scores of their applicants look better, while lowering their admissions rates. And as we know from Apple, exclusivity begets disproportionate interest, even if the underlying product doesn't merit it.
  • Many administrators and admissions officers know that the system has gone off the rails and want to fix it, but they fear that they will be the only one and then be at a disadvantage vs. their rivals who perpetuate the misguided process.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

A good (but depressing) interview about Pakistan and Afghanistan

I didn't listen to the whole thing, but the guest had a lot of no-BS, compelling comments about the dire situation in that region. She also stressed the economic and foreign policy angles of the conflict (often ignored by the MSM), such as:

  • How do we expect the current Afghan gov't to survive when the US set it up in such a bloated model that it can only afford to pay 25% of its staff (and a regime that can't pay its people will surely collapse)? To make matters worse, global donors are reneging on their aid promises (understandably). Plus there's the lingering handicap of exceptional corruption.
  • Why are we not asking China and India to get more involved in Afghanistan, as they have huge interests at stake and could serve as a check against Pakistan and Islamists? Instead we support/enable Pakistan, whose interests are pretty much diametrically opposed to ours?
  • The Afghan national police and army are basically warlords and militias in uniform. When NATO leaves and things start to devolve, those fighters will pretty much fragment and return to the pre-2001 invasion state.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Netanyahu's Congressional address on the Iran nuclear deal

I don't want to get into the weeds about how poorly argued and substantiated his speech was (the guests in the interview above do that, but just to give you a sense, Bibi said that Iran is competing with ISIS for global domination). But I don't fault him for trying. Like in game theory, it's all about the payoffs and priorities of each player. And with the same set of facts, rational and smart people can come to wildly different conclusions. From their point of view, they're totally right based on their goals.

Re: Israel-Iran, obviously the priority of a conservative Zionist regime is the preservation of the Jewish State at all costs, and keeping pressure on their enemies in perpetuity. No other cost consideration comes close (some IDF soldiers killed - better than getting nuked, angering the Arab world - they can live with that, upsetting the US and UN - they don't really need us anymore, and there are still enough diehard pro-Israel folks here to almost guarantee indefinite US support). So they will do anything to prevent a nuclear Iran or anyone making concessions to Iran or other enemies (which includes breaking protocol to address Congress).

US presidents and Israeli PMs disagree on stuff, and it can cost the PM his job if the Israeli public perceives that the PM is endangering the US-Israeli special relationship. That contributed to Bibi's ouster the first time around, as he butted heads with Clinton one too many times. But currently, I think the Israeli public is so fearful of a nuclear Iran that US relations are a distant concern (or they take it for granted, hence the persistence on expanding West Bank settlements). Even liberal press in Israel support Bibi's view (but not necessarily his methods) that the US should not give an inch to Iran.

Even if Iran's leadership is more moderate now, and with the proposed controls it's highly unlikely that they can develop and test weapons covertly, Israel can't even tolerate a 0.1% chance. So they will bomb if they need to, which will trigger a regional war of course - which I bet they think they can win (might be right, but what about the consequences to other parties?). Or they will try to derail the current negotiations, which in their opinion won't curb the nuclear development, but will ease sanctions and enable Iran to get stronger. They're in the mindset that Israel's enemies are insane genocidal religious fanatics who can't be trusted under any circumstance. So there's no point to negotiate - you know, the typical justification between enemies.

The irony is that the hardliners in Tel Aviv and Tehran want the same thing - no detente, no talks, and just cold/hot war (it reminds me of the plot of Star Trek 6). The talks were kicked off by the moderate/reformist regime of Rouhani (secret overtures to the Obama admin.), but he is on a short leash and has rivals. The nuclear program is one of their few trump cards, and it's by far their best card. He banked his political survival on this, so the hawks want his efforts to fail so they can assume power again - and fight the infidels their way. That is not a great outcome for anyone, especially the Iranian people.

Apart from the hawks, I'm not really sure what Iran's priorities and goals are. I know they want to get their economy going, and the people want to be part of the global scene (and they want better relations with the US and West). I guess the gov't still wants to keep tight control and develop a nuclear program for their prestige/leverage. But I don't know what their official stance is on foreign policy. Are they truly imperialistic as Israel claims? I think the problem with diagnosing aggression is that it's often rooted in fear/defense. Very few regimes just want to conquer and kill everyone (ISIS may be an exception, but they're not a state with leaders who are held accountable to anyone). We ostensibly invaded Iraq to make the world safer. It's possible that Iran supports Hizbullah and other Shia militias because they fear the Sunni and Western enemies all around them, not because they want to dominate the region. And even if Iran wants to become the most prominent power in the Mideast, the goal could be regime preservation in the face of potential aggression against them, not necessarily continued global expansion. But to Iran's enemies, of course they want to assume the worst motives. I wonder what the Iranians think the US and Israel want.

For the US, obviously we have an interest in the strength and survival of Israel (and the defeat of Islamist groups), but we also want to broker a 2-state solution and have Arab/Persian-Israeli peace. Or at least the absence of war, which would be disruptive to energy markets and global stability. Yes, some factions in the US want war in the Holy Land to bring about Armageddon, but I am not sure how prevalent and influential they are. We don't want Iran to nuke anyone, but we have a little more faith in their restraint than Israel does (esp. with the right incentives and threats in place). So the payoff we get from taking a chance on negotiation is maybe worth it to avoid isolation and escalation to war (which seems inevitable as long as hardliners are in power in Israel and Iran). So where does that leave us?

(#s are guesses for demo purposes)

ISRAEL
Negotiate -3
Don't Negotiate (keep status quo) 5
Fight Now 1

IRAN MODERATES (currently in power)
Negotiate 3
Don't Negotiate (keep status quo) -3
Fight Now -5

US (5+1 nations)
Negotiate 3
Don't Negotiate (keep status quo) -1
Fight Now -5

I am not sure how officially involved Israel is in the talks, but their goal is probably to change the 5+1's payoffs so that Negotiate becomes the least favored option (hence the references to Hitler and whatnot). Bibi actually said we should "make a better deal" (better for Israel of course), but that means he wants us to be more of a hard-ass. Though we know Iran won't just cave (this is their best card to play as I said, and they expect top dollar); they may walk away if our demands are too extreme. That would sink Rouhani and the reformers, and lead to the hardline war-is-likely outcome that some parties want.