Showing posts with label research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label research. Show all posts

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Why a lot of published scientific research could be wrong

We've talked about this before, but this infographic presents it pretty cleverly.

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First I would love to see a source on where he gets his numbers of false positives and false negatives.

He also oversimplifies the way experiments work.  For example with the higgs boson.  The experiments were run continuously until statistical significance  was seen.  That means the hypothesis was testing hundreds and hundreds of times.  The false negative/positive issue is resolved by virtue of the experimental setup.  

And on top of that, published work is not set on a pedestal because it is published.  Once it is published there is generally rigorous work to review and replicate the findings.  
So in short, he is wrong, and when he is right it doesn't matter because that is part of the process.  

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Those #s were just hypothetical based on a probability distrib, just to make his point. But sadly few scientists even consider type 1 and 2 errors, and just project confidence that their findings are bulletproof. In bio, when ppl try to reproduce expts, they can't about half the time, according to Science mag.
Yeah I think they are referring to distinct hypotheses, so a series of expts relating to the same hypoth. would probably be 1 data point only. There is also a risk associated with repeated "testing until significance", cuz the more measurements you make, the higher the chance you'll get some random signal and mistakenly use it to prove your hypoth. 

Actually you would be surprised how little rigor goes into the review process, I am sure S and A could comment. If the author is a big name with political clout, free pass. No one has the time or resources to verify and replicate work, it is the honor system. If another group wants to build on the research and don't get the same results, they may publish that, but may not to avoid controversy and be embarrassed if others don't buy it. 

But considering the incentive structure and human nature and the higher stakes of published results, it's a bad combo. Also the journal wants to publish big sexy results to make more money so there is COI.
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re: "mistakenly use it to prove your hypoth" I think you don't understand what I'm describing.  The measurements means more averaging as I'm describing it.  And more averaging means LESS chance of random signal causing an error.  It is just a method for eliminating "noise" whatever that noise may be.  For the higgs boson it was a very specific energy level measured from the decay.  Every time they took another measurement, if the higgs existed the energy signature would be reinforced and other sources of energy negated, or the opposite if it did not exist.  And with some fancy math they get a confidence level based on number of trials and blah blah.  So not all experiments are susceptible in the same way.
Re COI and big names.  Yea.  Reinheart and Roghoff (sp?) is an example where more weight was given to big names.  But it is also an example of the fact that people do look at this stuff.  Though you could argue the damage was done by the time we figured out their conclusions weren't great.

In any case I'm not arguing that false positivies don't exist in academic journals.  I am arguing that this particular guy's math that proves it is false at worst or misleading at best.
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I see, thanks M. In that case, the higgs boson expt was doing its own internal QA and replicating the experiment many times (something very lacking in bio and business, where many expts are underpowered). So if the variance is small and there is a strong signal from most of the trials, then that is a very convincing result.
At work we were struggling with a related issue. We usually don't approve changes to the website unless they pass a lot of statistical and sanity checks. But due to probability we know that we are likely rejecting some features that were truly positive (but we couldn't detect it, by chance or by poor design), and we are approving some features that are in fact neutral or even negative. That is the scary possibility. Sometime our approval criterion is "do no harm", as in if all the key metrics look to be within noise, and we can't reject the null hypothesis, then it's OK. But there is a slim chance that we are approving stuff that is actually very harmful. And if the company is approving 100's of features a year, it's likely some of them are harmful but mislabeled as positive or neutral. Though for mature businesses, where you are squeezing out basis points on the margin, the risk is probably not terrible. I guess there is a balancing act between scientific rigor and business expediency/strategy. But at least in e-commerce, an error isn't likely going to cost lives (unless it's Apple maps LOL). But for consumables, finance, or public works, it could be really bad. And they say we don't need regulation? :)
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Yeah, it's too bad that knowledge of this sort of thing seems to only reinforce the worst of carpetbagging instincts: get in early, publish as much as you can whether of integrity or not, and then do everything in your power to ensure that no one who comes after you could possibly do it as its supposed to be done in the first place.

Maybe it's a cultural thing - like, perpetuating a hierarchical ponzi scheme requires the smartest of people to buy in to the stupidest of ideas (like blinders, narrowness, and petty infighting)...

PS:  Technology will (ultimately) solve all these problems as democratized access to information will lead to market forces being brought to bear on the most indefensible of regressive attitudes and mentalities (most of which are sustained on the basis of petty economics).
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We were talking about this, and here were our general follow-up thoughts:

- The sci. method and the peer-review process are hundreds of years old and developed during times when methods were not so empirical & specialized, and there wasn't such $$ at stake for discoveries (for people like Euler and Carnot, I think reputation, knowledge, and prestige might have trumped the incentive to cheat, be negligent, and cut corners)

- Obviously we live in a new age now, and as C said the democratizing effects of technology could mitigate the problem (i.e. a grad student found Rogoff's errors when big time editorial staff and top peers didn't), but there are limits to that in hard science because of the cost and specialization of certain expts (though if you need a certain highly skilled postdoc to do a test a particular nuanced way to get a positive result, probably your result is not that robust)

- At least for bio, we thought to develop an independent, confidential auditing lab within the NIH to verify all published results. Journals and authors have to pay a fee to support it, and an article that passes the audit gets a certification that gives it more clout. The author's lab has to send all the materials over to the NIH (or let them use their equipment), with instructions, and the expert NIH staff have to reproduce the result within reasonable variance (they sign NDAs and no-competes so the author has no fear of being scooped). If they can't reproduce, then the paper can still be published at the journal's discretion, but without certification.
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I would think an algorithm could be developed (or maybe already has?) that can blindly take in the statistical data from an experiment and verify the conclusions.  Rogoff was a case of bad math not bad data right?  That removes the requirement to reproduce experiments and leaves you with only the first two cases of lies, damned lies, and statistics.
The NIH thing is interesting but there is still money involved which is always problematic.  The NIH is not free from politics since that is its major source of funding.  And there are many many public institutions that don't share the data found through public dollar funded experiments already.  The democratization of technology doesn't help when all the research is behind a pay wall.
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My comments are enclosed (in-line)...  Also, in case anyone didn't see the full article:  http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21588057-scientists-think-science-self-correcting-alarming-degree-it-not-trouble

I would think an algorithm could be developed (or maybe already has?) that can blindly take in the statistical data from an experiment and verify the conclusions.  Rogoff was a case of bad math not bad data right?  That removes the requirement to reproduce experiments and leaves you with only the first two cases of lies, damned lies, and statistics. 

It's a good idea; one would think some of that would be built-in to the tools the scientists and researchers are using but clearly there is progress to be made...
The NIH thing is interesting but there is still money involved which is always problematic.  The NIH is not free from politics since that is its major source of funding.  
True... but federal institutions tend to be bulwarks of trust (certainly to a greater extent than a tobacco company or The Koch Brothers)...
And there are many many public institutions that don't share the data found through public dollar funded experiments already.  

This is also true... but changing.  Even institutions which are known for being benefactors of the public (e.g. U.C. Berkeley) are getting more formal about sharing research and ensuring access... so the change is bound to ripple through to other public institutions too...
The democratization of technology doesn't help when all the research is behind a pay wall.

Yeah, that is slow to change - but perhaps the most hopeful front.  The economics of information mean is such that librarians and libraries are being confronted by these questions so the clock is already ticking: if our engineering library at U.C. Berkeley is getting rid of its books for the value the physical space has to the college then its probably a matter of time until someone rationalizes our giving research to private journals so that they can rip off the campus with subscription fees that (over time) do not seem to be worth more than the promise of a new student.
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For Rogoff, I think it was a variety of issues, but some of it was excel formulas pointing to the wrong cells, as well as "improper" suppression of some data points. So that is mostly human error and poor judgment, which is hard for an algo to rectify.

An algo would be cool (like how the IRS algos randomly scan over people's returns and flag errors/possible issues), but then the scientific data has to be formatted and structured according to some standards so the algo can read it properly. And since each article kind of measures different things and employs different significance tests, it could be tricky. Hell, they can't even get healthcare.gov right using 50 contractors (maybe that is their problem!).
There are some free or lower cost internet journals out there... hopefully they can give the heavies a run for their money some day. But due to the prestige factor, no big names want to "slum it" with online journals. But I agree that those journals are ripping off institutions to give then "novel research" that is at least 30% useless and another 30% incorrect.

Jokes aside, we piss and moan about how bad public institutions are (and they are of course not free of corruption either... see the MMS), but as C said, they are our last resort against a totally for-profit world. We need to strengthen the public institutions so that they offer a legit alternative to the for-profits, and then with customer choice it will compel the for-profits to clean up and stop shafting us so much. I guess that's why the health industrial complex fought so hard against single payer, which is BY FAR the best feasible health system in the Western world, warts and all. But with all the dysfunction in Washington, furloughs, and a reduction in public worker compensation/respect, it makes it less likely that our best and brightest will want to go into public service and stay there long enough to make an impact. 

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Health care reforms

http://www.interfluidity.com/v2/4013.html

Thought you might appreciate this. The author is a pretty intense econ blogger (much of it right at or beyond my ability to understand the arguments), but here he just unloads in response to the recent Time article about health care costs.

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I haven't read the Brill article yet, but based on the blog post - I get his argument for collective action. But as with most market failures, the public is just so ill-equipped because of asymmetrical info and influence with policymakers.

We've chatted about this issue during the Obamacare debate and other times, but as you said, most of the "proposals" are marginal improvements - and even those are unlikely to pass because of entrenched interests. You probably have thought about more comprehensive fixes, and I'd love to hear about them. From what little I know about healthcare economics, here is my initial list and let me know what you think:

1) Shift from fee-for-service to fee-for-outcome - and along these lines, empower consumers to refuse unnecessary or excessive care. Just as we are constitutionally guaranteed to legal defense, maybe we should be guaranteed a health advocate who represents our personal interests vs. the healthcare providers (who also care about us, but also care about other things)

2) Related to (1) is tort reform because medical malpractice much more lucrative and widespread in the US, compelling some providers to over-prescribe. But along those lines, there should be lawsuits and penalties for over-prescribing too.

3) This one is the most controversial and hardest to achieve (if it's even a good idea), but change the nature of demand - it's amazing that people can live longer and enjoy life more. But we are part of a society with some zero-sum aspects. Keeping an elderly person on life support for a year affects other needy patients. We are constitutionally entitled to pursue our happiness (which usually involves avoiding death), so no laws can apply here. But maybe people should reconsider their life expectations and their resource allocation impacts on society. It's OK to get sick and die when you're old. It's OK to "tough out" non-critical issues. A "good life" does not mean being top performing and discomfort-free all the time. Unless you have a high-deductible crappy plan, over-using resources doesn't hurt the patient, but at scale it does to everyone else. In other words, tragedy of the commons. 

4) market-based pricing & more buyer power - there has to be a supplier out there who is willing to sell us gauze for less than $77/box. And for medicare, the VA, or even Blue Cross with thousands of members should be able to negotiate better rates (the whole point of HMOs according to Kaiser and Nixon). But providers and vendors have local monopolies so there is little to no market. Also switching costs can be high, especially for employers choosing insurance. The health-care exchanges won't help much (if at all) because the pools are small and some of the most high-cost customers.

5) Harmonize state laws and health benefits admin - a lot of waste, bureaucracy, and delays regarding the different laws relating to privacy, insurance, benefits payout, taxes, etc. As part of this, there has to be more layoffs and pay cuts in the industry. It's ridiculous that health is 15-20% of the economy (just in the US, and maybe sub-Saharan Africa). It doesn't really make sense today to have >5 major airlines in the US, so why would we have dozens of insurers?

6) Incentivize hospitals and providers to have excess capacity, not fill empty beds with less sick people. Pay them to NOT treat people (when appropriate), because treatment also increases the risk of medical error and infections. This may free up resources to help underserved areas. Like with public schools, shut down or take over poorly performing hospitals and reward the good ones (measured by health outcomes per $ spent, not revenues).

7) Shift medicare spend from end-of-life emergency treatment to daily maintenance and preventative care (do this for younger patients too). Seniors sometime go to the doc mostly because they're lonely, yet we're cutting in-home services. If they feel socially connected, there is some data to suggest that their health improves too. And there will be someone there to take care of the small things before they get big, and take pressure off the elder's family.

8) Change the research grant structure - those who financially benefit from the research should pay back the gov't (at a low interest rate), even nonprofits. Along those lines, shift the emphasis from public-subsidized medical high-tech research to efficiency & outcomes research. Yes, future innovations are sexy and amazing, but probably not cost effective and affordable to many. It's better to focus on using our current proven tech in better and smarter ways. Even improving IT and data collection/analysis would be huge, and much cheaper than the next specialty drug that extends a sick person's painful life for 2 more months. Many docs and hospital admins are notoriously horrible with data. Again, this will cost jobs, but will save lives for less $.   

Friday, April 22, 2011

Is sugar toxic?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/magazine/mag-17Sugar-t.html?_r=3&adxnnl=1&ref=homepage&src=me&pagewanted=all&adxnnlx=1303339871-np8HMDjThEJmLpLPzTQSew
http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201104211000

Maybe you have heard about this issue, which is part of the health care debate. We know that cardiovascular diseases account for over $400B of medical costs in the US per year, and countless other social harm and externalities (lost productivity, caretaking, etc.). We assume that fatty foods are the problem, and that's part of it, but a UCSF pediatrics researcher (and plenty of others) has concluded that the biggest culprit is actually sugar: natural sugar fructose, or processed sugar sucrose which is fructose+glucose. Many foods can cause us to gain weight, but sugars push us to metabolic syndromes like insulin dysregulation (leading to diabetes, which increases risk or exacerbates all the other inflammatory cardio diseases, which is the leading cause of death in the West).

We know that sugar "rots our teeth" and sweets are a guilty pleasure, but there is very little human data out there comparing high vs. low sugar diets in controlled studies. This is partly because it takes so long and it's hard to keep subjects on a regulated diet. In lab animals, it's pretty darn convincing:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/12/081210090819.htm
http://www.portlandtribune.com/news/story.php?story_id=129728500537306200
http://beavercountyblue.org/2010/09/15/high-fructose-corn-syrup-major-cause-of-obesity/

But fructose exists in nature. It's a part of fresh fruit, which the diet experts say are good, right? But in nature, most high-fructose foods also contain a large amount of fiber, which negates the negative effects of fructose. High-fructose corn syrup is all sugar with no fiber, and it's practically everywhere. Actually fiber is mostly absent in processed and fast foods, because fiber falls apart when frozen unless you add stabilizing preservatives. Why is sugar not even on the food pyramid? Americans have no idea how much is dangerous, and frankly most doctors don't know either. The USDA and FDA are really behind the curve on this issue, possibly due to political pressure from the agri-business and food lobbies. The last FDA study on sugar was in 1986, and basically gave it a pass. You probably wouldn't be surprised to know that the FDA administrator in charge of that study later went on to work for the Corn Refiners Association. The study proposed that a sugar consumption (beyond fruit/veggie intake) of less than 40 lbs/person/year is "safe", even though the average American consumption at the time was 75. Now we're up to 90+. But the study didn't say what happens to people at those levels.

Yes, sugar products are pleasurable to consume, and they make most foods taste better (think baker's chocolate vs. milk chocolate, or medical electrolyte solution vs. Gatorade). But it's scary that one 12 oz. Coke contains 39 g of sugars. A typical mouse weighs 25 g. Now convert that to # of tablespoons in your head, and it's a scary picture.

It's one thing to know that sugars are bad, but it's another to stop people from harming themselves with it. Children, with very low impulse control, are abusing sugars and are the group with the highest surge of cardio diseases vs. their historical peers. That's partly why Michelle Obama and others are trying to get parents and schools to reduce their kids' exposure to junk foods. Maybe at some point we will need to implement a "fat and sugar tax", which would raise the prices on these dangerous foods in order to partly cover the social costs of consumers' future health problems. Heck we could even use some of those revenues to subsidize healthier, better foods for the poor, who are the model customers for bad foods because they are less educated in nutrition, and more likely to rely on cheap, fast food for survival.

But then you get the pro-business backlash and the conservative criticisms that gov't is trying to "run your life". People should be free to eat what they want! Even if it puts all of us at risk? The recent threat of a gov't shutdown, and our current debate about raising the federal debt limit, should remind us about the consequences of wasting money on preventable problems. Plus, the gov't already regulates other ingestibles like drugs, tobacco, and alcohol. The costs of abusing those products is arguable smaller than fat/sugar abuse. But it's so easy for these discussions to degenerate into culture war fodder (like climate change), instead of keeping it science and public policy based.

Other peoples, who traditionally consume very different diets than ours, are recently getting exposed to Western high-fat/sugar foods due to globalized food commerce. Fast food consumption in the West is leveling out, so firms are trying to tap new markets, often with great success. Inuits in northern Canada, who have survived on fish and marine mammals for millennia, are now getting Burger Kings in their villages. They're thrilled to eat such good-tasting, affordable food that doesn't need to be caught and hunted, but now their incidence of diabetes is going from near zero to through the roof. The same happened with some Pacific Islanders in the 20th Century.

http://www.npr.org/2011/03/24/132745785/how-western-diets-are-making-the-world-sick

Close to some of us, UCSF + the city of Martinez are experimenting with being sugar-free for a year (I couldn't find any web links about it though). This is ironic because a C&H Sugar plant is down the road from them in Crockett. I can imagine the findings will be quite noteworthy.

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I heard about this while back. But since everything is better in
moderation, better yet anything is bad for you if you over do it, then
everything (not just sugar) can be considered poisonous no? Surely we
can't label everything poisonous just because people can exercise
"moderation". Stick to the dictionary definition. Poison is something
that is harmful in all dose, not something we normally need as a food
group but now can be harmful because some gluttonous people over eat
themselves to self harm and destruction

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Well, this doctor is saying high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) in particular is bad for you no matter the dose. The body doesn't gain anything from it, and it only leads to increased triglyceride formation and insulin resistance. Maybe just having one Coke per month, you won't see a change in your health, but every little bit is making a small difference for the worst. So by that definition, HFCS is a poison. Natural fructose is a little different, because it exists in fresh foods with counter-balancing good nutritional properties. So maybe eating an apple is a net gain, even if it contains a small amount of "poisonous" fructose.

Some foods contain formaldehyde, iodine, etc. which are things that can be toxic at high doses, or can be good at low doses. If food labels would educate people on how much sugar becomes dangerous (depending on body weight, age, metabolism, etc.), then maybe consumers could make better decisions. But the problem is more economics than medicine. Our food industry has made sugar cheap and ubiquitous. And biologically, it is pleasurable and addictive like nicotine. So that is a dangerous combination. If we just let diabetic and hypertension people die, no problem. But we're pouring billions into their care, which is often preventable with different life choices. We force people to wear seatbelts and not talk on cell in the car to reduce the risk of harm, and if they violate we fine them. So we can tax booze, smokes, and maybe sugar. People can still eat it if they want, but they have to pay more to help cover the costs of the social harm. I guess it's the same idea as raising the costs of water on those who waste it.

I doubt any of this would happen, but we would have a healthier, more stable society if we did.

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article did not mention the word 'inflammation' even once.
metabolism discussion only.
nothing of the true disease cause... not all caused by sugar metabolism in host tissues
boo.

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Yeah, I mean he is on the extreme sugar fringe on the obesity-diabetes debate in order to shock people and draw more attention to sugar (that has a more positive perception in society than fat). He has plenty of detractors, but since the article/interview was meant for the general public, maybe he didn't want to get into too much inflammation and metabolic pathway science.

But his basic argument is (my interpretation at least, since I am not well versed in these matters):

-Natural fructose is more tolerable because it is found in high-fiber fruits that counter-balance the harms.
-Calories are not equal, and 100 cal of glucose intake is less harmful than 100 cal of fructose.
-Animal studies show sugar is addictive, and increases triglyceride production and insulin resistance.
-High-fructose corn syrup is more harmful than other forms of sugar.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Stem Cell Research Impeded by Left and Right Politics


http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9533577

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/19/washington/19stem.html?ex=1310961600&en=274...

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/07/19/stemcells.veto/index.html

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/355/16/1633

http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat?bid=1&pid=131964

Of all the damaging, unnecessary, and even un-American bills that have reached the president’s desk, Bush has only vetoed one – a 2006 embryonic stem cell research funding act. Now the Democrat-led Congress will try again in 2007, but no one expects a different outcome. The Senate may have enough votes to override a veto, but probably not the House. This sad debate is a perfect example why politics shouldn’t exploit and confound sound science, especially when billions of dollars, thousands of careers, and potentially millions of lives could be at stake. The fact that the Democrats successfully used stem cell research as a campaign tool in 2006 only strengthened the Republican resolve to oppose them, if only as a political pissing contest prior to 2008. When discourse over a pragmatic issue of national concern degenerates into a moral/religious/ideological impasse, we all suffer because of it. Intolerant conservatives are exaggerating the moral implications of stem cell research, and ignorant liberals are overstating the benefits while downplaying the many glaring technical and regulatory challenges. I think both sides need to get real to keep the discussion rational and practical.

THE PROBLEM WITH THE LEFT: SCIENCE

You might think that I totally blame the conservatives on this matter, but the liberals are messing things up too. By ridiculing the Jesus-freaks (and I am a practicing Christian who is obviously guilty of this too), it only makes them more defensive and sure of their righteous persecution. So they want to fight harder if they feel like the atheist liberals are attacking their sacred beliefs and threatening innocent fetuses. There are plenty of legit reasons to criticize the behavior of some hypocritical Christians, but we don’t need to attack the entire faith and institutions of religion. Arnold didn’t win over California Democrats by calling them “girlie men”, and had much better success extending the olive branch. So to try to wrestle the moral high ground from the pro-lifers, the liberals way OVER-PROMISED the benefits of stem cell research! In the 2004 presidential campaign, John Edwards literally told crowds that we would be able to cure Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s if we vote them in. And for scientists who are petrified that their funding will be cut, they also over-sold their research for their own survival, to wow enough people to keep them afloat. I know Gore and company have done the same thing with global warming, exaggerating the potential calamities in order to get people to wake up. But in the case of medical research, we dig a hole for ourselves if we promise what we can’t deliver. I know that many federal grants end up becoming “wasted money” because the scientists don’t provide much useful data towards achieving what the government expected from its investments. But they are making some progress, which is more than can be said of the billions of dollars wasted on idiotic defense initiatives like Star Wars.

So the reality is that embryonic stem cells won’t be able to directly help any patient for many years, if ever. But you have to start somewhere. The Manhattan Project started one day when generals and PhDs gathered around a blackboard to find a way to beat Hitler, and the “fruits of the labor” didn’t materialize until 1945 when we vaporized two Japanese cities. The Human Genome Project cost billions of dollars and thousands of man-hours, and not a single new drug or therapy has directly come of it… yet. But no one can deny that the knowledge is useful and could lead to future breakthroughs, even if it takes major social sacrifices. But we’ve learned things since then, and now DNA sequencing is many times cheaper and faster than that seminal study. At the risk of sounding like a heartless, godless scientist – you have to break some eggs to make an omelet. That is research, but of course there need to be ethical controls. Stem cell biologists are not as vile as the government doctors who sent soldiers into atomic bomb fallout in the Nevada desert to study radiation effects on troop performance, or the ones who withheld cheap and vital treatment from black patients in Tuskegee to monitor the progression of syphilis.

Adult stem cells are already used to save (or prolong) lives in bone marrow transplants, and many organ transplants are also approved. The donors can often live normal lives afterwards. No one has to die. Maybe some day, other adult stem cells will be able to provide other regenerative or replacement therapies (they’re working on skin cells a lot), and no fetuses will need to be sacrificed. But for now, embryonic stem cells are much more potent for such applications. Those fetuses in liquid nitrogen will never be implanted into a mother, birthed, and given a loving childhood. Does that give us the right to use them frivolously? Of course not, but if those fetuses knew that their mothers couldn’t care for them, and their essence would be used to try to make life better for suffering people all over the world, then maybe the fetus wouldn’t be a victim and the researcher a murderer. Was Jesus a suicidal sinner because he gave his life for humanity? No, because his death supposedly had a good purpose. I know that no one has the right to force someone to give up their life for a greater cause, but basically Bush has done that to the soldiers he sent to their grave in the Middle East.

The human body is not perfect as we all know, and our parts break down. Some diseases cause accelerated tissue degradation, or even make your body attack itself. So the theory goes that embryonic stem cells, which multiply and diversify into all the tissues of a complete human (if everything goes right in the womb), can be grown/modified in labs, implanted into patients, and programmed to reverse or repair tissue damage from disease. Like if your car’s alternator is giving out, you take it to the garage and get a new one installed. But of course the human body doesn’t work like a Chevy. Even in healthy people, miscarriages and birth defects are scarily common because it is really hard to construct a human body flawlessly (so call your mom tonight and tell her thanks). Cells don’t always listen to commands and do what they’re supposed to (i.e. cancer). With all the potential side effects from simple drugs like antibiotics or aspirin, can you imagine how hard it will be to screen patients for stem cell compatibility? And when you make an alternator in a factory, the machines make it the same every time, and quality control checks that it works before reaching the mechanic. When stem cells multiply in culture, there’s no guarantee that the new generation will be the same as the last. The whole point of stem cells is they become other types of cells with the appropriate cues. And we still don’t fully understand how cells respond to external or internal cues. If we don’t give them the proper sustenance and signals at all times, the cells will get crabby, misbehave, change into something else that can’t be used in research, or even die. Cells from an organism don’t like being outside that organism, and who knows what will happen if we artificially insert them into a foreign organism? So the same stem cells might do different things in different people on different days, through no fault of the researchers! What kind of wonder cure is that? Currently it doesn’t look good, but scientists are learning volumes each day and it doesn’t mean that it will never work – the Democrats just have to keep it real with the people so we can make the best choices concerning the research.

That’s why Bush’s previous stem cell plan is BS. In his first term, Bush grudgingly approved dozens of stem cell lines for federal funding because they were already available and the source fetuses were already destroyed. These so-called “presidential stem cell lines” (line = a self-renewing, dedicated type of stem cell isolated from a single embryo) are not an eternal supply. From whitehouse.gov: On August 9, 2001 President Bush told the nation “As a result of private research, more than 60 genetically diverse stem cell lines already exist. They were created from embryos that have already been destroyed, and they have the ability to regenerate themselves indefinitely, creating ongoing opportunities for research. I have concluded that we should allow federal funds to be used for research on these existing stem cell lines, where the life and death decision has already been made.”

This shows how little our leader understands the science. No cells except CANCER have the ability to regenerate themselves indefinitely. And even cancer cells won’t multiply without the proper nutrients, environment, and signals. Cells are temperamental little buggers, and embryonic stem cells are the most temperamental. Cell lines that began in 2001 are quite old by now (usually cells divide and become a new generation every few days, and some change into other types so they’re not stem cells anymore), so many are starting to degrade. The early stem cell biologists didn’t know very much, so they abused some cell lines and now they are starting to act their age. Some are already nonviable or lost completely. So that is like giving Bill Gates an old 486 computer and expecting him to fix all the bugs of Vista with it. Even for geniuses, you can’t give them shit materials and expect them to make a masterpiece out of it. The presidential cell lines have profoundly advanced the research, but they’re starting to outlive their usefulness and scientists need newer, better lines. But without federal funding, the prospect of isolating, characterizing, growing, and studying new lines is not great. California and some universities have their own funding, but it’s not enough. No such stem cell research restrictions exist in Europe and Asia, so those foreign scientists and companies are getting way ahead of us. America already has the priciest, most inefficient health care system. Just imagine how hard it will be when foreigners hold all the patents!

By now we should realize that stem cells will not automatically become a miracle cure that regrows your occipital lobe or knee cartilage, and the devil is in the details. You can’t just inject stem cells into an Alzheimer’s patient’s brain and expect them to clean up the amyloid plaques, become neurons, form synapses, and restore cognitive function. Heck, we don’t even totally understand how complex organs like the brain or pancreas really work in healthy or diseased individuals, so there’s no way we can predict what foreign cells will do in such complex systems. The FDA won’t let you put anything into anyone without knowing its mechanism of action and side effects. And patient variability is always a concern. With all the risk of pathogens or immune rejection, cell-based medicine is really challenging and hard to get approved. Most of cutting-edge biotechnology involves the manipulation of simpler nucleic acids and proteins. We discovered those molecules a half-century ago, and only now do we have the ability to make them cheaply (relatively), put them to good use, and know what they will do once inside the body. Gene therapy is still economically nonviable, but we have FDA-approved enzyme and antibody proteins to address a variety of health issues. But even a tiny little antibody molecule is so tremendously complex that we need to program special mammal cells to make them for us in elaborate, expensive manufacturing processes. That’s why Avastin costs HMOs $10,000 a month per cancer patient (http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2006-07-10-cancer-costs_x.htm). And the engineered molecules like Gleevac that chemists synthesize to combat ailments have never naturally been in humans, so companies must show the FDA reams of data to prove that such compounds are safe, effective, and pure.

If drug makers have to go through so much just to approve a little molecule to become a drug, just imagine how hard it will be to get the FDA ok for stem cells (a cell may have millions of different molecules in it, behave in a less predictable manner, and is more likely to cause immune rejection or side effects). So how the heck do we engineer stem cells to maintain themselves until implantation, be robust to withstand purification/processing/transport/storage, then program them to change into something useful the body, reverse a disease, and not hurt the patient in a reliable, effective, economic manner? Well, much smarter people than us are working around the clock on it, because they believe in the science and want to help people in need. Even if the therapies are decades away, we have to start somewhere. Someone had to lay the first stone for the Great Pyramids. Therefore, we should provide scientists the resources to give it their best effort, because the potential benefits are tremendous.

THE PROBLEM WITH THE RIGHT: RELIGION

Now to the Religious Right: they claim that we must respect the sanctity of life, not encourage abortions/unethical research, and it’s wrong to sacrifice one innocent life to save another. Maybe so, but based on that premise, the War on Terror is immoral as well. We are torturing, ruining, and sacrificing innocent lives just to “safeguard” our lives. The global economy is also immoral, because we’re exploiting lives and the planet that our creator gave us, just for profit and consumption. But the last time I checked, not many Bible-thumpers and pro-lifers were protesting the Iraq War and consumerism that their lifestyles explicitly endorse. I guess fighting Darwinism and stem cell research are sexier “crusades” for religious people to pursue. First it was bombing abortion clinics, and now it’s rewriting our children’s biology textbooks and depriving expert, professional, and conscientious scientists from furthering human understanding of the complex mysteries of life.

If research challenges what is written in Genesis, then why not protest or attack the astronomers and quantum physicists who study the origins of the universe, and have data to suggest that the world is billions of years old and life can spontaneously emerge from non-living matter? Humans have always been ignorant, gullible creatures and fearful of what is not obvious or easily understood (racism, Da Vinci vs. the church, Mayans freaking out over solar eclipses, etc.). Are the protesters only against unethical research or exploration of the unknown in general? If so, then they might as well boycott all the immoral medicines, foods, and other biologics that they rely on every day, because godless scientists created them. Put your money where your mouth is, and don’t selectively practice your faith! Some believe that science and religion can and should coexist better in our society. Maybe atheists and born-agains could give it a chance.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9207913

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=9180871

And let’s be honest, the “pro-life” conservative American Christians aren’t doing a good job convincing us that they really do give a shit about protecting life. Except for the rich people who can afford in-vitro fertilization (IVF) and donate their extra fetuses to science, most of the research stem cells come from aborted fetuses, and there are thousands of them sitting idly deep freeze all over the country. But what about the poor, desperate mothers who had to get abortions because they couldn’t afford to bring a child into the world? Those same Christian conservatives voted for leaders who cut funding for social programs, education, and health care to the poor - all of which could contribute to reducing the number of unwanted pregnancies. And what’s worse, those political bloodsuckers used some of that money to finance war. Which Americans are dying in Iraq and Afghanistan? The kids of CEOs and senators? No – the poorer, less educated, rural Americans who joined the armed forces partly out of patriotism, but also because they had few better options. If you love the troops and value their lives, why did you support leaders who don’t want to give them body armor and keep extending their tours of duty?

So those pro-lifers might support leaders who get on the stump and talk about the immorality of abortion and stem cell research, but conveniently look the other way when those same leaders trample over the poorest and least of our society. And some even broke the law to make the richest among us even richer. Didn’t Jesus say that the poor are blessed, what good we do for the least of our brothers we do for Jesus, and it’s easier for a camel to pass through a needle’s eye than a rich person to go to heaven? Thou shalt not kill a fetus, but thou shalt turn a blind eye to the suffering poor, and thou shalt kill every Muslim who dares oppose America? If you really want to protect life, then fine – outlaw abortion and federal funding for embryonic stem cell research. But then you better also tax the hell out of the rich and give it to the poor, bring our troops home and decommission our nukes (those who live by the sword will die by the sword), and conduct national policy with integrity, compassion, and generosity instead of arrogance, dishonesty, and greed, like the savior said! Or if they aren't ready to give up their wars and riches, then shut the F up about stem cells and let these smart, dedicated researchers try to do some good for their fellow man (what a novel concept for a Christian!).

CONCLUSION

It’s no secret that the Bush Administration has been one of the most anti-science governments in US history. They’re not only ignorant of science, but actually treat it with disdain in my opinion. It’s fairly clear that the president of the free world doesn’t really believe in climate change or natural selection. He is entitled to his opinions I suppose, but not if it endangers national interests. Thanks to Gore, Arnold, Kyoto, and other environmentalists, finally the outcry over greenhouse gases is large enough that even fairly conservative politicians are calling for reforms and immediate action. Because businesses can’t make money amidst Biblical drought/extinctions/floods/tempests, and how can their grandkids grow up to continue their legacies with a sick planet!?! They inundated the EPA with hack appointees who believe that silly environmental regulations just get in the way of business profit and productivity. As furious states started to sue the EPA, eventually the Supreme Court had to step in and proclaim that CO2 is a pollutant and could be regulated by the federal government. With their tail tucked between their legs, the Bushies have grudgingly acknowledged that global warming probably has a man-made element to it, but what is their solution? Give major tax subsidies to agri-businesses to substitute problematic corn ethanol for foreign petroleum, and don’t bother to promote conservation or cleaner industry!

http://economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_RJGDQTN&CFID=120150...

They lost the battle over CO2, so now they want to make their last stand with stem cells. The Bush treatment of life science has been utterly criminal. In order to pay for his wars and tax cuts that favor the wealthy, Bush has severely cut the research budgets of critical public institutions like the National Institutes of Health, which funds university research all over the nation. And the tightening of immigration laws (to an unfair degree, as some might argue) has frustrated or prevented some of the brightest professionals and students from obtaining visas to work and study here, thereby compromising our intellectual capital. Spending for military and nuclear research have ballooned under Bush, and defense contractors like Boeing enjoy ginormous tax breaks, subsidies, and contracts for projects that don’t make America any safer (in the CNN link below, the high-tech Comanche helicopter wasted almost $7B of taxpayer money before it was cancelled in 2004 to divert funds for Iraq – just think how many new stem cell lines that could buy).

http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2006/206/1

http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/02/23/helicopter.cancel/index.html

http://www.webmd.com/content/article/130/117750?src=RSS_PUBLIC

Yet as the wealth of biotechnology knowledge is growing exponentially and opening new doors for exciting and crucial future exploration, the NIH has had its budget frozen by Washington and is hard pressed to sustain the high quality of research that the US is famous for. Even top researchers are literally scraping the bottom of the bucket and begging for new grants to sustain their labs. And worse, important institutions like the FDA, NIH, and CDC have been without key leaders for months or years, and in the meantime key reforms or projects have stalled. No institution can function optimally without a strong leader in place who espouses the values of his or her subordinates. The former FDA chief had to step down for conflict of interest allegations, and Bush’s chosen replacement Von Eschenbach had confirmation trouble in Congress because he refuses to make the Plan B abortion pill more readily available. Life science is just not a priority to these cronies, though I’m sure they’d change their tone if their spouse or child was diagnosed with a scary disease, like what happened to John and Elizabeth Edwards. God forbid such ailments befall our leaders, but I worry that such a shock is the only thing that could get them to wake up.