Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Accommodating disability/identity going too far?

You may be surprised to hear this from a progressive, but I am getting a bit tired of what I interpret as excessive accommodation (or less flattering... tyranny of the minority). The Constitution protects life, liberty, and the PURSUIT of happiness - not an actual guarantee of happiness (especially when that may result in less liberty for others). Life is hard much of the time for most of us (even "normal" folks); why does society have to address your specific issue at what could be great cost/unfairness to others, some of whom may be even needier by reasonable measures? Part of that stems from the greater diversity and funding for interest groups of course. But maybe part of it is also a bit of egocentrism: my problems are more important than yours. Often "fights for justice/rights/equality" have degenerated into fights for disproportional, preferential treatment (pro-Israel lobby, breast cancer funding, etc.). People rarely take the time to consider that the extra stuff they get may result in involuntary sacrifices from others.

Obviously those with special needs deserve some assistance, compassion, and reasonable laws to govern their treatment. But do we give equivalent concern for other types of needs, such as language barriers, poverty, climate-geography, family situation, non-mainstream religions, or general inability to thrive in this market economy? Many of those factors are also out of the individual's control and often no fault of their own.

First of all, if we run the #s and accessibility/sensitivity measures don't cost the nation that much, then it's a moot point. But there are a gazillion types of disabilities, and some are of course easier to accommodate for than others (and do employers and orgs have to plan for all of them?). I couldn't find summarized figures, but as a case example take North Adams, MA with a pop. of 14K. The DOJ is forcing them to pay $1M over 3-5 years for ADA compliance. I am not sure if this is representative of the overall US or not, but that is $71/resident. Disabled people are about 13% of the nation (43M ppl), but of course not all of them will need every type of ADA modification. To put it in perspective, a single person with a $50K income contributed $73 towards science/tech research in their federal tax return. So North Adams was spending as much on ADA compliance (that may nor may not help anyone) as they were on research (that ironically could reduce/mitigate disabilities). So we're robbing from the future to pay for quasi-arbitrary mandates. I am sure some of those upgrades were serious and needed, but I'm also pretty sure some weren't. 

With all our crumbling schools, bridges, power grids, etc., we have to prioritize our spending by cost/benefit. Maybe that is cold, and of course we don't want to leave critically needy people hanging, but ultimately if we spend $ smarter, America will be better off. I wonder if people even collect data regarding how many Braille signs are actually used by the blind, how many CC-hearing impaired tools are actually used by the deaf, what % of workers are self-identified as disabled, or how many ADA accessible bathrooms/parking stalls/etc. are "surplus". There's no point imposing all these costs on businesses and other orgs if they're not even helping the handicapped much.

The various versions of ADA were meant to be civil rights legislation preventing discrimination against the handicapped, which is probably good. But according to wiki sources below, the Act is so vague and inconsistent (like most legislation) that it may actually make it harder for the handicapped to get some jobs, and opened the door to an avalanche of litigation. Of course the disabilities with the best advocacy assets got more favorable attention/provisions (how does one rank disabilities anyway?).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_with_Disabilities_Act_of_1990

People should have equal rights and "relatively" equal access to public services and life activities. But that doesn't mean we can all enjoy them equally. People have "disadvantages", whether mental, physical, emotional, economic, or otherwise that may significantly reduce their access to privileged or even basic stuff. We can't remedy 100% of those cases, and it would probably be highly corrupt and oppressive if we tried. Sometime it's morally right and maybe socially justified to try, but we need to give it a lot more thought before imposing sweeping mandates on a community, or the entire nation.

Some of these comments apply to identity issues too. I'm sorry, but society does not have to bend over backwards just so you can "be who you are". ALL of us put on masks every day and have to conform to some other persona just to be part of society. We don't have unlimited, absolute freedom and liberty. Reasonable accommodations are fine, but that is of course subjective and I am not sure if legislators or even judges are the best people to make the call. I wonder how much of it is real personal strife and how much is just vanity or an attention grab. I really doubt most elementary kids can be certain of their gender identity; they've barely spent any time at all as that gender. I know it is a real issue for some, but I can envision a lot of misunderstanding and problems associated with this type of law. Surely it is wrong for kids to be discriminated against based on what gender they want to associate with and what society expects them to have. But the law can't prevent every wrong from occurring, and this could cause disturbance and tension for many other students and their families. Maybe the best solution is to build a solo unisex bathroom in each school? But that isn't much different than enforcing ADA building rules I guess.

Monday, August 26, 2013

Syria and the "responsibility to protect"

After worldwide moral cowardice during the Rwanda genocide, the UN adopted the "responsibility to protect" (RTP) doctrine, which states that global powers have the duty to "take action" when there is evidence of genocide. Two concerns: it leaves it up to the individual nations as to what actions are warranted, and the definition of genocide is pretty hazy. So it's a non-binding statute to say the least.


RTP was used to justify NATO bombing the Serbs over Bosnia, NATO bombing Saddam for gassing the Kurds, and most recently NATO bombing Qaddafi's military (for the record, Qaddafi wasn't really engaging in genocide, unless you consider those rebelling against him as a threatened minority). Of course other genocides have taken place since Rwanda where no one took any action beyond speeches. This inconsistency undermines the credibility of some global powers vis-a-vis RTP.

Last week the Syrian opposition claimed that Assad used chemical weapons on civilians/rebels in a Damascus suburb, and hundreds were sickened and killed. There is a lot of evidence to support that claim. This is the 2nd widely documented chem. attack by Assad in the last 3 months. Earlier in the civil war, Obama threatened that Assad deploying WMDs would cross a "red line" where the US would be forced to act. We did nothing after the first attack, but after this recent attack we have deployed more warships to the area (for possible missile strikes). However, there are several reasons why military intervention (even under the RTP) would be problematic for the specific case of Syria.

Bosnia is the only case on record where military intervention (with no boots on the ground amazingly) actually stopped war crimes. And the NATO bombing stopped it cold; i.e. Serbia rushed to the bargaining table the next day. But the differences with Syria are like night and day, so we can't expect to be that lucky again:

- Assad is locked in an existential internal struggle and major blood feud, while Milosevic was supporting Bosnian Serbs in a proxy war with very little strategic value or reasons to escalate
- There were clear, centralized chains of command in the Balkans, vs. quasi-chaos in Syria
- Bosnia was pretty much the nastiest war in the EU's backyard during a very peaceful period of world history (more attention, outrage, and support for intervention), while Syria is a blip (albeit a very tragic, bloody one) in the protracted War on Terror, failed Arab Spring, and general Mideast unrest that deters foreign powers from decisive action
- Russia and China will really risk a lot to go to bat for Syria, while most of Serbia's "allies" (including Russia) were not that close and easily persuaded to drop support

Then what about Libya? Over 100,000 Syrians have died so far; some in "legitimate" civil strife and others unlawfully. Qaddafi didn't come anywhere close to that (Libya as a nation is only 6M concentrated in a few major cities vs. Syria's 22M). But we helped the rebels topple his ass. Well, the effort was mostly led by the French (who sound more aggressive on Syria as well), so the US could "lead from behind" and not take flak for the consequences. Also we intervened when the Arab Spring momentum was strong and we appeared to be turning a new page in the region. In other words, lots of upside with little cost. Over a year later, we now know there were some major costs: they can't form a coalition gov't, they can't disarm their militias, they can't protect our ambassador, and arms used to oust Qaddafi (some given by the West) are getting funneled to Syria, Yemen, and other hot spots. So even a "no brainer" intervention has its downside.

This puts Obama in a real bad spot, obviously. If we keep talking about war crimes and not doing anything about it, then our credibility sinks even lower than its current abysmal level in the region. Also if we don't respond, innocents will continue to die and the instability/refugee crisis will threaten fragile neighboring nations. If we bomb Assad, then it's possible Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies will attack our forces in the Gulf (and no guarantee it will stop the atrocities). Plus it will further worsen our strategic relations with China and Russia. If we support the rebels (and they win), then Alawites will be persecuted/slaughtered and another Egypt might happen, except this time Al Nusra (overt Al Qaeda affiliates) could lead instead of the "tame" Muslim Brotherhood.

There's no way we put boots on the ground after Obama has campaigned and worked hard for years to pull out of our recent 2 Mideast wars. I believe no-win situations are in fact very rare if parties really give full effort to come to a solution, but Syria could actually be a legit one.

------

Oh, forgot to mention... punitive air strikes can really go both ways, though clearly we don't have a big data sampling to study. Bombing worked well in the Bosnia War, but then I guess Milosevic learned and he was a lot less cooperative during the Kosovo War. Whereas we only bombed for a few days in Bosnia, Kosovo required over 70 DAYS of air strikes before the Serbs came to the bargaining table. Good thing too as NATO was running out of military targets, and decided to punish all the people of Serbia by expanding their target list to include irrelevant, peaceful infrastructure like the power grid and chemical plants. Also some accounts suggest that there really wasn't much evidence of atrocities against Kosovar Albanians, and NATO just wanted to teach Slobo a lesson at the time. After the first wave of cruise missiles, sadly the killing of Albanians increased out of retaliation. That's the problem with "long distance war", you have even less influence than conventional chaotic war. And it doesn't help our image, especially considering anger over our cowardly reliance on sometime illegal drone attacks. So even if we effectively and carefully target Assad's weapons (and I'm sure his WMD are carefully protected/hidden), we can't stop his ground forces from slaughtering more dissidents. UN boots on the ground won't guarantee civilian safety either. A recent report slammed the post-bombing UN-NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo for failing to protect local ethnic Serbs from revenge attacks by Albanians, and not investigating claims that thousands went "missing." The Alawites know what is coming if their side loses.

We are backing them and Assad into a corner. What is he going to do, capitulate? Slobo was still the popular leader of Serbia, possibly wanted for war crimes, and had something to lose if he didn't bargain to save his neck. Assad knows there is no scenario where he doesn't go to the dock or the morgue, so of course he is not going to respond they way we would like (especially after seeing what happened to other dictators who thought they would be safe by playing ball with America, like Qaddafi). I guess that is why diplomacy is so precious before the streets are full of blood and everyone gets irrational; now we've missed our chance to intervene effectively and are left with only bad options.

But we just can't sit idly by either, refusing to be vigilant after a regime has used WMD on civilians (and likely shot at UN inspectors trying to investigate that). If we stick to our guns, we have to go all-in then. Toppling Assad is the easy part, but we have to make sure to not let Syria become another Egypt, Iraq, or Kosovo. And we have to make sure we can afford to intervene, both financially and politically. Or we hold off and try to bribe Russia/China into permitting a UN mandate, then go in as a coalition and try our best to not F it up again.

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

Gender differences among white collar criminals



This was interesting though not surprising (but it's good to put #s to our suspicions).
This Penn St. study looked at 83 fraud cases from last decade involving over 400 defendants. As you would expect, women made up only 9% of the defendant pool, so not sure if that was enough to make statistical conclusions. But half of the male defendants gained >$500K from their alleged frauds, while half of the female defendants earned nothing. The women were more often in lower subordinate job titles too vs. their male co-conspirators.

Females were more likely to occupy accounting/finance positions, and were not the "ringleaders" or creative force behind the crime. Their crimes were less likely to be personal profiteering, and instead they were accused of embellishing #s to make the firm look better or covering up losses to avoid bankruptcy. So they were doing wrong while "trying to help someone else", whereas the men were straight up stealing for themselves (and maybe making their firms some $ too).