Thursday, October 30, 2008

Letter to Newsweek on Obama coverage


Dear Newsweek,

I am a Barack Obama supporter, but have been consistently dismayed by your magazine's lopsided, adulatory coverage of him. Your writers' enthusiasm for Obama may have clouded their objective judgment and Fourth Estate responsibility to inform the public and hold our leaders accountable. In order to be a better president, I think Obama needs his supporters to scrutinize and give honest feedback, not add to his ample supply of cheerleaders. While several editorials this year, especially from Jonathan Alter, have justifiably criticized John McCain's campaign decisions, personality, and positions, I have not observed a similar degree of scrutiny for Obama. Apart from exposing "Doodad Pro" and other fraudulent donors to Obama's website in the Oct. 13 issue, he appears almost faultless in the eyes of your journalists. Every politician has faults, and it does not help Obama or America at all by excusing or overlooking them.

As an example of Obama exuberance drowning out reason, consider that in the same issue (Oct. 27), your writers contradict themselves on Obama's foreign policy style. Fareed Zakaria writes that Obama favors greater international cooperation, diplomacy, and would prefer to work with other nations than confront them as adversaries. That sounds excellent to me and many voters who tire of the George Bush approach. Yet four pages before, Alter claims that Obama's "hawkish" comments on unilaterally bombing our ally Pakistan to take out Osama bin Laden proves that he can restore tough defense credentials to the Democrats. So which Obama are we going to get? Obama's aggressive stance on Pakistan is exactly what he criticized Bush for regarding Iraq : go-it-alone hubris, lack of respect for sensitive regional politics, and impulsive use of force that may result in worse anti-American blowback down the road. Our recent brazen attacks within Pakistan have been terribly problematic and destabilizing for the fragile post-Musharraf coalition. Losing our nuclear ally Pakistan to internal chaos is a lot more damaging to our interests and global stability than Osama still alive, but contained in the remote tribal belt. Does Alter or Obama realize that?

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

What banks are doing (or not doing) with the bailout money


Sigh.... but are we surprised? Like Iraq, this is what happens when you rush to drastic action without a solid plan.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081028/ap_on_bi_ge/financial_meltdown

WASHINGTON – An impatient White House served notice Tuesday on banks and other financial companies receiving billions of dollars in federal help to quit hoarding the money and start making more loans.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has said the money was aimed at rebuilding banks' reserves so that they would resume more normal lending practices. But reports then surfaced that bankers might instead use the money to buy other banks. Indeed, the government approved PNC Financial Services Group Inc. to receive $7.7 billion in return for company stock and, at the same time, PNC said it was acquiring National City Corp. for $5.58 billion. (me: so PNC was begging the Feds for help, but had $6B cash on hand to acquire a weakened rival? Worse than the Katrina victims who used their gov't debit cards to buy new TVs. Paulson should sell their stock or paper back to punish PNC and similar abusers.)

Officials have said that there are few strings attached to the capital-infusion program because too many rules would discourage financial institutions from participating. (me: Yeah, right. Well if they demand blank check freedom and won't accept "money with rules", then it's not the gov's job to accommodate. I thought beggars can't be choosers! Let them stay out in the cold and see how their customers & shareholders respond.)

Fucking tired of this crap.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Better Place: an expanded model of electric transport


http://www.sciam.com/blog/60-second-science/post.cfm?id=electrifying-cars-down-under-2008-10-23

http://www.betterplace.com/

The business model for automobiles and cellular phones don't seem very similar at first, but that will change if entrepreneur and former SAP software engineer Shai Agassi has his way. His CA start-up called "Better Place" is pitching a new electric automobile network, and companies/nations have been so impressed already that he's garnered a billion dollars in venture capital, even in this tight economic climate. He already has contracts with Denmark and Israel, and Australia (the most carbon-spewing nation per capita, even more than the US/China) recently signed on as well.

His innovative approach centers on paying for the miles you drive instead of the actual car, like cell phone plans with minutes included and the phone comes free (or heavily discounted). If all works well and his system reaches a sufficient scale for efficiency, he even makes the audacious claim that customers will get their cars for free. Deutsche Bank analysts have studied this possibility and concluded that it's feasible. Renault-Nissan have developed the prototype vehicle for Better Place's network, and unveiled at an Israeli auto show in January. It uses an advanced litium-ion battery (like personal electronics) and has a range of about 100 miles with peak horsepower of 91. Sure it's not a Corvette, but it's not an Insight either. It's performance is comparable to a 1.6 L vehicle and looks like a typical compact 4-door sedan (see below). 500,000 units are supposed to hit showrooms, starting in 2011 for the first customers Denmark and Israel.

With a projected 2.5 charging stations per EV on the road, customers shouldn't have to worry about running out of power, especially when most urban residents drive less than 40 miles per trip. Using current technologies, 1 mile of normal driving power will take 1 min to charge, so it won't be an all-day ordeal. On-board GPS will locate the most convenient charging locations. Israel estimates that 1/6 of its parking spots could be converted into charging stations to make this work. There will also be automated battery replacement stations that operate similar to car washes (see simulation video below). This way, you can just get a fresh power supply without much delay if you're taking a cross-country trip. Small nations like Denmark and Israel may not need it, but for Aussies driving across the Outback (or potentially Californians commuting from SF to LA), it will help a lot. So in order to be accepted by the consumers, EV charging mustn't be more inconvenient than our current system of refueling at gas stations and taking your car in for regular oil changes/tune-ups (which EVs won't need).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9bc4vNccL0

So Better Place will make it's money on mileage/power plans for its customer network. I am not sure how much it will cost to drive a mile, but again, it has to be affordable vs. gasoline to gain acceptance. The up-front infrastructure costs will be huge, but hopefully governments will contribute in return for the benefits of less pollution and oil dependence. Especially for nations like Israel and Denmark with abundant renewable power (wind in Europe, sun in the Middle East), nature will literally power human transport. Though this model may not work for rural peoples, who could get gasoline credits or hybrid subsidies instead. Of course this plan is quite radical, and may encounter stiff resistance from more conservative oil and auto interests, who still refuse to stop marketing SUVs. Aircraft, buses, and freight trucks will still need to rely on fossil fuels, but alleviating the passenger vehicle sector will do wonders for our oil consumption. Though another concern is where the electricity will come from. It doesn't do much good to power electric cards from coal or petroleum-fired plants, so the power sector has to evolve in parallel for their plan to be successful. Hence Better Place's partnerships with power companies like Australia's AGL Energy, in order to build wind farms of sufficient scale to power their auto grid.

But the sad reality of all of this is, "If the 700 million cars on the road today were powered by re-chargeable batteries, our carbon footprint would be reduced by 10%," according to BetterPlace.com. A lot of effort for just 10% savings, but maybe weaning us off gasoline automobiles from an energy security standpoint is the larger benefit. Though on a separate page in Better Place's website, they estimate carbon savings of 40%. So not sure which figure is more accurate, but every bit helps.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Obama and race

First your point on MLK Day. Well from an Arizonan friend I know, he said that AZ and other states were against the holiday because it celebrates just one man. For all our 43 presidents, we only have 2 holidays for them all, and no holidays for other great Americans like Edison and Lewis and Clark, who weren't presidents. King wasn't even an elected leader. They wanted the day to be called "Civil Rights Day" instead, to encompass all the people, white and black, who suffered and toiled to make this a fairer nation. But MLK Day just idolizes one man and forgets the rest. So it wasn't because of racism, according to them I guess.

Palin is off the deep end sometimes so I won't address her attacks on Obama. But McCain never said Obama wasn't patriotic and was un-American. He just said his ideas for America are not what the "mainstream" wants and he is not experienced enough to handle the job. Well call me naive, but I do wholeheartedly believe that McCain doesn't want to push the Obama-Muslim lie. Some things are even below him. I am not sure about Palin. Sure, they're not going out of their way to help a brotha out and dispel the rumors (that is Obama's job), but I DO NOT believe that they are adding to it. See the link below... McCain knows how it feels to be "swift boated" by the Bushies over his adopted daughter. He won't even go after Jeremiah Wright like the conservatives want him to, so he's not going to push a lie on us either.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/164504

Although speaking of that, it's interesting how cowardly Obama has behaved on this matter. The only Muslim member of Congress, Keith Ellison, said, "A lot of [American Muslims] are waiting for [Obama] to say that there's nothing wrong with being a Muslim". Ellison has offered his support to Obama, but he hasn't taken it. American Muslims are thrilled that a President Obama, who might understand prejudice and injustice a little better, could help get them out of the gutter of public perception. But his conduct makes them lose faith. We already know that Obama's staff have forcibly removed women with headscarves from his rallies (he has since apologized for this). Obama is about hope and change, but not for everyone.

http://www.startribune.com/politics/20729974.html?location_refer=Nation

Let's be honest, Obama's past success and future prospects depend on white, wealthy, educated people supporting him. They're trendy hippies who want to show their righteousness, feel guilty about bad history, and think they are making amends. I know that is terribly offensive and I'm sorry. There are plenty of good reasons to support Obama. But I know that latent racial guilt is part of the equation, maybe just a small part, but it's there.

In fact, the only election Obama ever lost was to another black man. Early on, he found his strongest support in Chicago's academic and rich white areas. He can't even out-black Bill Clinton. Obama is a survivor and a pure political animal. Of course he loves having 99% black support (now Colin Powell too), but when push comes to shove, he will do what the whites and Jews want first. He is so scared of being labeled a Muslim extremist and un-American that he is willing to compromise basic decency and not include American Muslims in his "movement". I find that disgusting. He's not anti-Muslim of course, but being who he is, he should know better.

After the Rev. Wright buzz, Obama couldn't ignore the elephant any longer. He made that big speech about race that his adoring fans in the media hailed as the "most significant" discussion of race in decades. Have you read the speech (full transcript below)? It's just a little more than what we'd get from a freshman history class. Ok, I admit some of it was amazing, but it wasn't a "revelation" that will make us all get along (nor did Obama claim it to be, though of course the white media creamed themselves afterwards). It was politics, it was damage control, and let's remember that he may have not even written it - probably white Ivy Leaguers did and he just recited it. If he truly cared about those big thoughts of the speech, he would have continued it on the campaign trail, but since then he hasn't said squat about race. Now it's all the economy, stupid. If Obama had his way, I am sure he would never want to discuss race at all. Because he's scared of it instead of proud. It's a political liability to him, not an innocent, honest aspect of his identity. Well I take that back - he uses it when advantageous, like when talking about unity, as in his life is a microcosm of what the American dream can be: a poor white woman and poor black man getting together, and making a president out of nothing. At least he's not as bad as Geraldo renaming himself Gerry Rivers to get into show business (though he did rename himself Barry in school).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/18/obama-race-speech-read-t_n_92077.html

I know I am being cynical here, but basically my long-winded point is: Obama is not genuine, just like McCain, and just like most other opportunistic politicians. They do what is convenient and strategic. Kerry tried to make a stand for gay marriage (at his peril), but Obama won't even touch it, even though at least 50% of his liberal base wants it. On that issue Obama reverted to his Christian dogma rather than compassion and fairness. Both McCain and Obama seem to just want to win for themselves and will say anything to get there. Hopefully their glory will translate into better days for America too. I guess that's all we can hope for out of DC these days.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

How much does it cost to become president?

I guess the going rate is around half a billion dollars...

Disclaimer: GOP fundraising/campaigning has set new records for sleaze in the last decade, but the Dems are not far behind. Yet another reason to justify more choice of political parties and more campaign oversight/transparency. I could have wrote another email investigating questionable practices by the McCain campaign (and I'm sure they're many, such as: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120873412746529713.html?mod=googlenews_wsj), but more and more it's looking like he should not and will not be our new president. Actually considering Obama's sound, moderate positions on many issues, consistently poor decision making by the McCain-Palin camp, and the turbulent economic climate, it's a shock to me that the race is even this close (media spin, and/or voter prejudice?).

So I chose to focus on Obama instead, not only because he is the presumptive winner, but also because he has made a point to convince people that he is above the typical Washington money game, and his heavy small-donor support suggests a truly populist, democratic effort to get him elected. He calls his campaign a "movement" actually, which is a really big word. I want to determine if it's true that his campaign has held itself to higher standards. Because if it turns out to be dubious or false, that may shed light on what to expect or not to expect from an Obama administration.

It's amazing how Obama, a reformer who claims to reject Washington lobbyists, was also able to out-raise George W. Bush, a lobbyist's wet dream. An LA Times article from last year that I've already forwarded described how Obama's campaign has evaded the spirit of this chastity: instead of taking registered federal lobbyists' money directly, he takes from corporate "consultants" or state lobbyists instead, and lobbyists also offer to corral private donors on Obama's behalf. Amidst their terrible business troubles and threat of layoffs/buyouts, can we really believe that Lehman/Merrill Lynch employees just decided to give $10M to Obama and $7M to McCain out of generous patriotism? In fact, the financial sector is the top corporate donor group for both campaigns, which may have contributed to their Senate voting to get those charitable but controversial bailout packages passed quickly.

But it is also true that Obama has been amazingly popular for small donations from students, overseas/enlisted Americans, and first-time campaign contributors. Hence his campaign statement that "the average donation is under $100". Though averages can be a deceptive statistic, and over half his money comes from donations exceeding $1,000. One side of him is quite populist, though the other side is big money politics-as-usual. It's true that an unprecedented number of donors (over a million) have contributed to Obama, maybe because they really believe in his message and want him in the White House to make change, or maybe for other reasons. But Obama's impressive army of small online donors might be misleading, as this statement from Paul Lukasiak on a Time.com blog describes:

It turns out that Obama's contributor numbers were WAY inflated, because they included anyone who bought a bumper sticker, or a keychain with his name on it, or paid $5 to hear him talk. Yet he represented these people as if they had simply handed over cash for nothing in return, and the media went all ga-ga over his "stunning" ( the word one reporter used to describe it) contributor base. Basically, he made the mainstream media look like idiots.

As the NYT put it, Obama seeks to "transform grass-roots enthusiasm into more useful forms of support", like bragging about how many donors he has. He is technically correct in doing this, but it's convenient compliance. The Obama camp defended its inclusion of these customers as "donors" because it's the law; they run their merchandising operations internally, and most other candidates outsource them to private vendors. They have to declare a $15 shirt buy as a $15 campaign contribution, even if it cost them $5. Obama's website makes this explicit: "All purchases made on the Obama Store are 100% contributions to the campaign and count toward your overall contribution limit." It's a clever, legal, but somewhat manipulative strategy. I guess that's politics.

Though it's sad that the Obama campaign even charges $5-25 for people to attend his rallies. Not the black-tie dinners with VIPs, but just the informal public gatherings we see on TV. I guess most candidates might do the same, but isn't he supposed to be working for us? He claims to understand the economic struggles of America's middle class, so why would he add to them? Also, this new wave of "small donations" under $200 may open up the door to creative fraud, because they don't have to be reported to the FEC unless requested. I know in a huge national campaign you can't verify every penny real-time, so some irregularities will occur, even to the most conscientious candidate. A recent audit found that seemingly imaginary people had given over $10,000 to the Obama campaign (they have since returned the money). This is well above the $2,300 personal spending limit for the general elections, but they gave it in many increments of $10-25 (the much-celebrated small online donation), and apparently Obama's website lacks even the simplest controls that cut off donors after they've reached their legal maximum.

To critics, though, [the small donation] can be an invitation for fraud and illegal foreign cash because donors giving individual sums of $200 or less don't have to be publicly reported. Consider the cases of Obama donors "Doodad Pro" of Nunda, N.Y., who gave $17,130, and "Good Will" of Austin, Texas, who gave more than $11,000—both in excess of the $2,300-per-person federal limit. In two recent letters to the Obama campaign, Federal Election Commission auditors flagged those (and other) donors and informed the campaign that the sums had to be returned. Neither name had ever been publicly reported because both individuals made online donations in $10 and $25 increments. "Good Will" listed his employer as "Loving" and his occupation as "You," while supplying as his address 1015 Norwood Park Boulevard, which is shared by the Austin nonprofit Goodwill Industries. Suzanha Burmeister, marketing director for Goodwill, said the group had "no clue" who the donor was. She added, however, that the group had received five puzzling thank-you letters from the Obama campaign this year, prompting it to send the campaign an e-mail in September pointing out the apparent fraudulent use of its name.

"Doodad Pro" listed no occupation or employer; the contributor's listed address is shared by Lloyd and Lynn's Liquor Store in Nunda. "I have never heard of such an individual," says Diane Beardsley, who works at the store and is the mother of one of the owners. "Nobody at this store has that much money to contribute."

This summer, watchdog groups asked both campaigns to share more information about its small donors. The McCain campaign agreed; the Obama campaign did not. -Newsweek (emphasis was mine)

So now what is their clever excuse and legal loophole to justify the refusal?


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2008/06/20/MNPH11C2CD.DTL
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/20/opinion/20fri1.html?ex=1371614400&en=d7529a3544511a83&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

The articles above are old, but it said that through April, Obama already raised $265M (Newsweek says he has reached $458M by this month, NPR gives $605M), which contributed to his decision to break his agreement with McCain and forgo federal public financing for the general election. That money pool comes from the $3 donations that we have the option of making when we file our federal tax returns. Public financing caps spending at $84.1M per candidate for the general election, though at the time, Obama's camp predicted that they could raise 3-4X that amount, and they were right with $100M to spare. Obama is the first Dem candidate to do this since the program's inception in 1976 (enacted in response to Watergate and the huge amount of corporate cash secretly funneled to Nixon's campaign). Bush, Kerry, and Dean have declined public financing during the primaries, but not in the general election.

Obama's official justification for this move is that the public financing system is "broken", and that he needs much more cash than that to defeat the GOP-perfected, 527-led smear and misinformation against him. While that may be partially true, if he wins the presidency on this strategy, it may signify the end of public financing and even more uncontrolled spending than the 2008 cycle in the future. Is that a good thing for America and the change we need? Public financing does seem to leave a candidate at a disadvantage against an opponent who opts out, but McCain didn't, and Obama didn't bother trying to reform the system during his time in the Senate. Several attempts at overhaul have failed in Congress, possibly blocked by public financing opponents who want to render the system obsolete and ripe for termination.

http://www.clcblog.org/blog_item-57.html (a detailed analysis of public financing and how it could be improved)

Anything to win, right? When you are fighting a dirty opponent, some people think that you also have to get a little dirty, or your opponent will eat you alive. Just a few compromises to your principles here and there, when absolutely necessary, won't hurt anyone, right? In a general election, viable candidates have to move towards the center and amass the big bucks anyway. Win first, and then you atone by doing extra good when in office. But history has shown time and again that it doesn't work that way. Once you start to compromise, deceive, and rationalize, it just snowballs from there. President 44 will have to deal with a number of complex problems where consensus will be difficult, if not impossible, to achieve. Sometimes compromise may be the only solution, but other times it's just a convenient, tempting way to get faster results by circumventing your conscience.

"I'm afraid he learned to go along," says [Alan] Dobry, the Hyde Park political activist. "There's a fellow I know, another committeeman, 'Bull Jive' Taylor. [He] used to say to me, 'Alan, why don't you go along? Everything would be so much easier. Everything would be so much smoother.' And I think Barack learned to go along. It may get him elected president, but it doesn't make me happy." -NPR story on Obama's experiences in Chicago politics

-----

Barack Obama's campaign is trying to further pad its fundraising lead in the closing weeks of the election, asking supporters Monday for their help in adding 100,000 new donors to the campaign [during the week of Oct. 13]. In a fundraising e-mail from Obama, the Illinois Democrat says the cash infusion is needed to combat Republican efforts to "distract voters and distort the truth." - TheHill.com

Obama recently announced that he pulled in another whopping $150M from Sept. donations (632,000 new donors, though I don't know how many of those are Doodad Pros). That's $5M/day. Heck, his campaigners should work in Las Vegas or Madison Avenue with such skills in getting people to part with their money for nothing in return. His one-month haul (of course a campaign record, blowing away his previous Aug. record of $63M) is almost double the public financing maximum. He's blowing McCain away, though of course the GOP nominee gets more cash from party fundraising too.

The Obama gang are hoarding and celebrating when I think they should be giving the money back. Hasn't Obama been the one saying for the past few months that families are hurting and the economy is in trouble? He has enough money to run 3 presidential campaigns! He should tell all those well-meaning families to keep their hard-earned money and use it to pay the bills or save for the uncertain future. Isn't that better for America? Obama has legitimately complained about, blamed Bush-McCain for, and vowed to fix the sad state of neglected schools, the high costs of gas/food/college/health care, home foreclosures, decaying infrastructure, not enough armor for our troops, etc. Some of his money can be legally given to such causes, as long as he or his family are not salaried employees of the recipient organizations. If he cares about America and the suffering of the needy, then he should give some of his war chest away, which actually helps people, instead of yet more silly ads and merchandise (well, I guess those expenditures do help our economy too, but it's redistribution instead of new wealth creation). Shouldn't he "spread" his wealth around if he expects us to? Wouldn't that be good PR as well?

But he's keeping it, and actually has the gall to ask us for more, which really bothers me. He has more money than he could possibly spend by Nov. 4, unless he plans to finance the Iraq War. And what happens with the leftovers? It is legal for him to refund the donors (the Obama economic stimulus package), pay off outstanding bills, or give to a registered charity or political party. It's also permissible for him to contribute to a few other campaigns (and I'm sure he will, to try to increase the Dem majority in Congress), under certain constraints of course. What is totally illegal since 1989 is using the money for a candidate's personal expenses, though as you would expect, abuses have happened.

http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_happens_to_campaign_contributions_if_the_candidate_quits
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/24/nyregion/24retire.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

But it looks like Obama is planning to spend most of it on himself. And where is the money going? TV ads of course. Excluding the huge 30-minute prime time chunk he purchased on 3 major networks (FOX, NBC, CBS) for Oct. 29, important enough to reschedule the World Series baseball championship (America's so-called past-time) on that night, Obama is also rich enough to compete in some red states that previous Dems had written off, like North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana. He is outspending McCain 2-to-1 on ads in those and other battleground states like OH an FL. In just 24 hours, he spent $3.3M on TV ads (what some primary candidates raise in a month), and is projected to, or already has, broken Bush's record of $188M spent overall. So far he has outspent McCain 4-to-1, according to the NY Daily News (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2008/10/20/2008-10-20_obamas_allout_blitz_drowns_out_mccain_wi.html). David versus Goliath? The often victimized and down-and-out Dems are now looking like the GOP: bullies with deep pockets. I know that Obama's collective ads are much less negative than McCain's (which the front-runner can afford to do), but really I feel scared for America if simplistic, manipulative content like this actually affects voting decisions:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-ae409tJEI (even Joe Biden denounced this now-infamous ad, but Obama defended it on national TV)

The aggressive fundraising and spending would seem more reasonable if he is down or the polls are neck-and-neck, but in terms of electoral votes, he has quite an impressive lead on McCain! This is like the dominant 2007 Patriots running up the score on the Dolphins. I know that history is not on Obama's side and he can't afford to be complacent, but so much of his campaign strategy is based on trust in polling, so why the paranoia now? I think he should do everything that is reasonably possible to try to win, but not go overboard. $200M spent on TV time is way overboard. Are voters really that cheaply persuaded? What does that say about our democracy and politicians like Obama if they think that some robo-calls, junk mail, and 30-second TV pitches will move a state from red to blue? One can make the argument that mass-media campaigning is deleterious to the electoral process. It's just repetition, message control, and sensory overload to the point of psych warfare to me. I am sure some worn-down voters in battleground states are downright sick of all this bombardment, and can't wait to be left alone after election day.

It all comes back to the whole "buying elections" cliche: in 75% of open-seat Congressional races, the bigger spender won. I can only imagine a similar trend holds for presidents, but it's not that simple. As the papers below describe, money alone doesn't win elections, and there is definitely diminishing returns when it comes to campaign spending. As long as Congressional candidates pass a certain funding threshold ($1M for challengers, $0.5M for open-seat races), additional spending hardly affects their prospects of winning. For presidential hopefuls, the first million spent is much more important than the 50th, mainly because of the front-loaded primary process and the need for candidates to quickly get known nationally. So the data suggest it might not even help Obama to spend another few million this month. I guess David Axelrod didn't read that paper or doesn't care. Plus for a candidate committed to fighting climate change and irresponsible consumption, I can't begin to imagine the carbon footprint and trash amassed by his campaign. Well, win first and do good later, right?


http://www.scribd.com/doc/2383850/Does-Money-Buy-Elections
http://www.fairvote.org/reports/monopoly/richie2.html

Other resources:

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Barack_Obama/Campaign_Financing#_note-52

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Generosity only in good times?

http://www.philly.com/inquirer/world_us/20081017_Annan__Nations_not_paying_hunger_aid.html
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/fromthefield/219724/122417271741.htm

World Food Day was last week, and with the rising costs of basic staples and fuel, the number of malnourished humans on the planet has almost reached a billion. 10,000 children will die of hunger today. The global financial crisis will only make matters worse. Reduced economic activity from recession pushes down sales and prices for exports like coffee that poor nations rely on to survive. Regardless of what losses we took to our 401(k)'s and home values, the poor in the Third World (and their struggling governments) will be hurt much more. Those making less than $1/day are much more vulnerable to the global fallout from an economic downturn, so we should stop feeling sorry for ourselves and recognize the other innocent victims of our greed. We might have to cut back on our summer vacations; they might have to cut back half their caloric intake. When compared to that reality, even people in danger of foreclosure can't really complain.

It's easy to give when our cups are overfilled, and yet America was stingier than Japan or most of the EU per capita during the economic booms of the 1990's and mid-2000's. But now, when the Third World will unjustly suffer from the mistakes of the industrialized world, is when we really need to step up and show our humanity. Is it more important to keep bank deposits insured, to cut economic stimulus checks, or to keep children alive? So far the industrialized world has injected over $3T in loans and other aid into their banking systems, but renowned economist Jeffrey Sachs estimates that we could virtually wipe out hunger with an investment of just $3B a year (1/1,000 of what was given to banks). Over half a billion more people (mostly in Africa) would be able to live to see 2009 and maybe improve their situations. All they need is literally some high-yield seeds, fertilizer, agriculture education/equipment, and maybe some medicine. No more than what the Amish have; it's really that simple. Loosening some protectionist trade policies would help a lot too, though as our wallets are squeezed, I suspect that the opposite will happen.

G8 nations already have a reputation for promising way more than they actually deliver in terms of poverty aid, including the Tony Blair-promoted UN Millennium Project ($50B for Africa by 2010). Recently, big names like Kofi Annnan and Sachs came out with scathing criticisms of rich states. In response to the price hikes and food riots in June (gotta love ethanol), the G8 et al. pledged an additional $12B to stabilize world food markets/supplies, but so far have only ponied up 0.4% of that ($50M from AUS). Unfortunately, sometimes the money that rich nations "pledge" is money that they already promised in the past (but haven't yet delivered on), or pre-existing aid money that they just re-allocated for this purpose. That's like your boss giving you a raise, but the money comes from next month's salary (or your friend's salary).

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Obama, Afghanistan, and Pakistan

Correction from the last email: Gen. Petraeus replaced Gen. Casey, not Franks (who retired after leading the 2003 invasion of Iraq but never finding the slam-dunk WMDs).

AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=95783493
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7616005.stm
http://www.newsweek.com/id/163349

"We have a sound bite about a representative Afghanistan at peace with itself and its neighbors," says [retired Marine and defense analyst Nate] Fick. "But we don't have a defined strategic objective."

Fick says there's no agreement among allies, even within the American government, about the road ahead. Is this all just to defeat insurgents or to build a new country? Those efforts, some say, could take 25 years.

"If this is a counterinsurgency effort, maybe we shouldn't be sending more brigades, maybe we should be withdrawing brigades," says Fick. "If this is a holistic state-building effort, then the number is not two or three [brigades], maybe it's much higher than that. Certainly tens of thousands of troops, if not over 100,000 troops," he says. -NPR
Harsh and remote Afghanistan is one of the five poorest nations on Earth, and would be a monumental nation-building effort even with total calm on the streets and no historical baggage. In many ways, Afghanistan poses a much larger challenge than Iraq, and may not be anything more than a failed state now even if we didn't "take our eyes off the ball" with Iraq. More US troops have died there this year than in Iraq, for the first time in the War on Terror. Insurgent bombings are getting more sophisticated, and attacks are up 40%. Militants raided a jail and sprung 886 of their comrades in broad daylight. During the worst times, NATO troops died at a 30/month and civilians at 300/month. A Mideast commentator half joked that corrupt, ineffective President Karzai's political control is limited to downtown Kabul, and only during the daytime. As typical military "solution" to counter this slide, NATO has increased bombing missions three-fold, sometimes killing innocents and generating anger from Afghans and foreign humanitarian groups (many of whom have had to abandon their vital projects in Afghanistan due to unsafe working conditions).

With an infusion of about 10,000 more US soldiers next year, the combined UN ISAF force and Afghan military will total about 250,000. But unfortunately, that may not be enough. Afghanistan is larger than Iraq with more difficult terrain and poorer infrastructure. Their population is also larger (32M), and Gen. Petraeus' counter-terrorism manual prescribes a fighting force of 400,000 to properly secure such a population - which is obviously unfeasible. Some in the Pentagon suggest bribing and arming the tribes could help, as Petraeus did with the Anbar Sunnis, but they fear it will contribute to warlord-ism (a cultural blight and historical trend that still affects them). But they do want them to be more involved and proactive with security and community building, in order to accomplish things that our bombs can't.

While it is clear that an influx of skilled foreign fighters has contributed to the strengthened insurgency and NATO losses, their origins are not fully known. Some are coming from Pakistan obviously, but Afghanistan's border is vast and porous on all sides. It's frankly impossible to control, and Alexander the Great, the Khans, British, and Soviets have tried unsuccessfully. Maybe at best we can fly daily patrols like the no-fly zone in Iraq during the 1990s, or mine the border (but that is politically toxic and causes much collateral damage). Some Pakistanis say the contributions from their nation have been exaggerated by Americans for political scapegoating, and in fact it is the destabilizing NATO war in Afghanistan that is spilling over and exacerbating problems in Pakistan. Yes they have had to deal with religious fundamentalism and lawlessness in the Pashtun tribal regions for decades, but mostly the threat was contained and their urban centers weren't getting bombed. But only after 2001 has there been overt confrontation between anti-government/anti-Western militants and the Pakistani military (at the behest of the US, putting pressure on Gen. Pervez Musharraf to take the gloves off), which has probably done more harm than good. Islamabad is screwed either way. When they launch offensives into the tribal zones, many die on both sides and there is public disapproval. And when insurgents strike back by viciously bombing security forces or even civilian targets, many Pakistanis blame their government and the US for provoking the militants.

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"Essentially, we are starting a fight that we can't finish," [former Pakistan CIA station chief Bob] Grenier says. "Because we are generating far more radicalism, we are motivating more people to fight against us and to fight against the Pakistani government." -NPR

So another concern is Obama's ignorance and shaky dialog on the subject of Pakistan. I know the least about Pakistan too, versus the other nations mentioned in the last email, which probably contributes to my heightened fear of the security situation there. If you don't understand it, then how can you solve it? Maybe you just rely on your advisers at your own risk (but we should remember that there are some Karl Roves and ideologues on the Dem side too). I believe that Pakistan is a major front in the War on Terror, yet on Obama's foreign policy page of his website, there is not a single mention of Pakistan anywhere. I don't expect Obama-Biden to "fix" Pakistan/Afghanistan or even make it a top priority, but at least don't make it worse or continue Bush's counter-productive meddling. The situation is fraught with challenges and experts are exasperated as well. There are some good ideas circulating, and most people agree that we need to devote more resources (though our pocketbook is already strained from Iraq and Wall Street). But even so it's worrisome that the fragile and discordant UN/NATO/Afghan coalition may not execute them to meaningful success.

A positive step was a Biden-Lugar bill that proposed $7.5B over 5 years in development aid for Pakistan, with the caveat that their military does not interfere with civilian governance (call it the "democracy-for-food bill"). This safeguard is not paranoid either, because actually the danger of another military coup is much more likely, and almost as scary, as an Islamist takeover. After all, that's what got Musharraf into power. The Pakistani military establishment is like their fourth estate, and although they've lost some public support recently and had a purging of their security services, they are still a vital component of that nation's identity. Whether patriotic or power-hungry, I am sure the brass would want to step in should the struggling democracy be unable to improve conditions.

We know that Pakistan, the world's second-largest Muslim nation, has vacillated from civilian to military rule and back again during its tumultuous 61-year history after the British left. They lost Bangladesh to succession and have somewhat been at war with India for decades over the disputed Kashmir region, so obviously nationalism, survival, and territory are always on their minds. Dictator Musharraf, a top Bush ally in the War on Terror, took power in a coup in the 1999 and was recently impeached. Not only did his violations of the constitution and sacking of judges do him in, but he failed to fully deliver on promises of modernizing the economy and increasing security. The economy did grow at 6% under Musharraf, which was probably the main reason he lasted this long. Sensing the inevitable, the US called for Musharraf to respect democracy, and threw their hat behind former corruption exile but populist democratic hero Benazir Bhutto. She talked tough about terrorism, made a triumphant return to her homeland amidst death threats, but a final attack did her in. Musharraf's party got the boot in recent parliamentary elections, so now a fragile coalition government has been struck between Bhutto's also corrupt husband, President Zadari (a political novice who also suffers from dementia and PTSD, I'm not even kidding), and Prime Minister Sharif, the man Musharraf unseated and banished.

As if this shaky situation wasn't already a recipe from problems, Pakistan has been terribly affected by the global economic slow-down, with 12%+ inflation and power shortages at near record highs (making their rupee hit an all-time low vs. the dollar). Credit raters have skewered them, and foreign investors are withdrawing their money like it was going out of style. Of course another major reason for their loss of business is the violence. After Musharraf laid siege to the Red Mosque in Islamabad last year, anti-government Islamist insurgent activity ballooned. Modern, educated Pakistanis may not approve of the insurgents' brutal tactics and strict interpretations of Islam, but they distrust or loathe their government even more. They don't want their leaders and military to be puppets of the West and their controversial War on Terror, which in their part of the world resembles a war against Islam for oil. Recently there was an attempt on Zadari's life, and a massive truck bomb destroyed the Marriott hotel in the capital. Over 4,000 Pakistanis have died from fighting this year.

And to make matters worse, the US has intensified its covert military operations within Pakistan. I know our special forces have probably conducted habitual cross-border activities in the tribal areas since 2002 (probably with tacit consent from Islamabad), but frustrated from ISAF's recent setbacks in Afghanistan, our attacks are now more brazen. Predator drones launch missile strikes on Pakistani soil weekly, sometimes killing civilians. And soon the more heavily-armed Reaper drone from Iraq will see action in this theater. The US initially denied it, but Pakistan tracked US helicopters entering Pakistan and unloading commandos who attacked a village, killing some high-value targets but also up to 20 innocents. And more recently, a Pakistani outpost and US gunships exchanged fire at the border but no one was hurt (are we still allies?).

The Pakistani people are outraged by our unapologetic incursions into their country, which makes it harder and harder for the government to justify it's strong allegiance to Washington and targeting of insurgents, who are fellow Muslims and Pakistanis. Trying to deflect blame, pro-American Zadari condemned our actions and called an emergency meeting of his parliament to discuss. Recent negotiations between our two nations over the war have gone nowhere. Though some skeptics believe that America forced Pakistan's hand, stepping up cross-border operations recently to prevent the Zadari government from signing new deals with the tribes. Well, we've done worse in the past.

Like our partnership with Israel, it boils down to incongruent security priorities. Obama criticized Musharraf for signing treaties with the Taleban, but what choice did he have? Unlike us, Pakistan's national objective is not to wipe out Al Qaeda types, but to contain them. Musharraf has broken promises to step down as president and hold elections, so clearly his top goal was just to retain power. Why would he risk his throne and commit political suicide by declaring war on the tribal areas? Pakistan's tribal belt will never come under Islamabad's authority no matter what, but that doesn't mean we have to regard it as the epicenter of a terrorist caliphate that threatens all of Western civilization. While fundamentalists do pose some real problems, cracking down on them may be more costly than tolerating them in a marginal sense. When they are confined to the mountains or maybe going to Afghanistan to fight, they are not really Pakistan's problem anymore. But our fighting in Afghanistan is politically destabilizing and increases anti-Americanism, which does become Pakistan's problem as neighbor and ally. So we're not letting them off the hook that easily. If at first they don't go along with us, American persuasion means leaving the other side no choice.

I know the border is indistinct and weakly respected out there, and war can be very confusing, but we should know better. A similar thing happened during the Vietnam War. The communist North was funneling arms and troops through neutral Cambodia to the conflict zones in the South. Nixon of course concluded that Cambodia was part of the problem, and ordered covert bombing to disrupt communist supply lines. Whether it worked is unclear (America still lost), but the attacks did displace and kill 100,000s of Khmers (also from starvation due to crop destruction) and totally destabilize Cambodia, allowing the insurgent Khmer Rouge to gain more popular support and enact a reign of terror.

Probably our attacks won't cause Al Qaeda extremists to take over Pakistan and launch nukes (the typical Western doomsday scenario). But a more likely, and equally problematic, result could be the military establishment sacking the democratic government, claiming that they will stand up to America and defend Pakistani sovereignty where the cowardly bureaucrats have failed. The military has lost prestige due to Musharraf and the unpopular conflict with insurgents, but they could make their case if the US continues to inadvertently undermine that fragile democracy, and Zadari's government is unable to stop Pakistan's deteriorating economy and security. With Islamist and American bombs going off all around them, and their homes without food/power, the rattled people might turn to the generals as last resort. This time, lawyer protests won't be able to save their "experiment in democracy". Like Myanmar, political moderates and suffering people can't stand up to a powerful junta.

Their nukes would still be relatively secure, but we would set back democratic reforms in the region and turn a key ally into a more isolated, nationalistic, anti-American state (complicating matters for vital neighbors like India too). Even if their democracy is able to persist, at best we will lose much goodwill and cooperation - what little we have left. That would make the War on Terror much harder to maintain, bringing Pakistan closer to rivals like China, and giving a boost to our enemies in Central Asia. Bottom line, it's a bigger problem to lose Pakistan than tolerate some Taleban and Al Qaeda causing problems in Afghanistan but mostly confined to the mountains. Let's remember the consequences of our disrespect: Sudan had Osama in the 1990s, but feeling snubbed by the Clinton administration, they let him go. We have so few friends left in the Muslim world, let's not lose another (that also happens to have nukes).

Millions of Pakistanis live under or among warlords, terrorists, and the Taleban in the ethnic Pashtun Northwest tribal areas (rugged, remote, and about the size of New Jersey) because they have no alternative - that is their ancestral homeland and there is little to no government presence there. Some actually respect the Taleban for meeting basic community needs and enforcing Sharia law. And like the Randy Weaver-type independent survivalists in rural America, they don't consider themselves under Islamabad's rule and form their own militias - sometimes in opposition to the Taleban, but more often against the Pakistani military. I know Pakistan has stolen or pissed away billions in aid money, but we have to find a way to get more basic services to, and a nonthreatening federal presence in, the "ungoverned areas". Maybe they don't want or have to live like Ozzie and Harriet, but at least they should feel connected to their fellow Pakistanis and aware of their unique role in regional affairs. The Taleban can't be the only show in town; they at least deserve an alternative to isolation.

Americans may never understand tribalism and sectarian societies, because our way of life is so different. Autocratic leaders like Musharraf have to rule by force and delicately balance competing factions, constantly wary of coups and assassins. It's even harder for a democratically elected coalition government. So it's not as simple as some politicians claim. It's not like Pakistan's generals are relaxing by the pool, thumbing their nose at America, while Osama is strolling around with impunity. Muslim nations understand the Islamic terrorist threat and how to address it more than we ever will. So if they're not hitting Al Qaeda as hard as we would like, there is good reason for it. It's imperialistic arrogance for us to always assume that we know how to run their country better. Maybe we can sit down with them and discuss how we can help each other get more of what we want, but going after Qaeda "for them", on their soil, is the wrong move.

While it is true that some anti-Western or insurgent-sympathetic elements of the Pakistani security forces are working against us to help the Islamists, no ally is perfect. Remember that we came to them for help, not the other way around. We get what we pay for. Maybe Pakistan isn't a very trustworthy partner in the War on Terror, so we should meter our expectations, exposure, and at least not turn their populace against us. Though let's remember that killing Osama is not the solution to all our problems, especially if doing so creates five more Osamas to fill the void. We have foolishly made Osama the convenient "face" of terrorism to absorb all our fear/hatred, but the foe we fight is so dangerous and elusive precisely because he has no face, or could be any face. Killing a top leader does some damage, but the decentralized, semi-autonomous network of worldwide terror cells will continue their plotting and attacking. And although we've made it much harder for terrorists to wire money, after 7 years they also don't seem to be running out of funding and arms over there (opium sales and smuggling, plus a glut of Cold War era weaponry circulating unchecked in Central Asia).

America's attacks within Pakistan provide little strategic gain, at the huge costs of enraging the population and making violent extremism a more attractive response. Have we learned nothing from our other war? The mighty US military couldn't stamp out Al Qaeda in Iraq, until a few Sunni sheikhs finally got fed up with Qaeda's brutality and allied themselves with us (also for leverage against the Shia of course). All the bombing in the world won't stop the Taleban as long as the Pakistanis support or tolerate them, and in fact our attacks make it much harder for the Pakistani government to contain insurgents and persuade people to reject them. Pakistan is a conservative religious society (and very much so in the tribal regions), so already they are predisposed to distrust the decadent, depraved West and side with fellow Muslims, maybe believing that their violent struggle to "defend the faith" is justified as Jihad. Though of course some moderate Pakistanis are appalled by the carnage from the city bombings and attacks on their military. But they hesitate to support a government that appears powerless to stop warmongering Americans from killing Pakistanis too. We have to give them a reason to side with us, but so far we've just done the opposite.

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Here was Obama's Pakistan Q&A from the second presidential debate:

Hamm: Should the United States respect Pakistani sovereignty and not pursue al Qaeda terrorists who maintain bases there, or should we ignore their borders and pursue our enemies like we did in Cambodia during the Vietnam War?

Obama: Katie, it's a terrific question and we have a difficult situation in Pakistan. I believe that part of the reason we have a difficult situation is because we made a bad judgment going into Iraq in the first place when we hadn't finished the job of hunting down bin Laden and crushing al Qaeda.

So what happened was we got distracted, we diverted resources, and ultimately bin Laden escaped, set up base camps in the mountains of Pakistan in the northwest provinces there.

They are now raiding our troops in Afghanistan, destabilizing the situation. They're stronger now than at any time since 2001. And that's why I think it's so important for us to reverse course, because that's the central front on terrorism.

They are plotting to kill Americans right now. As Secretary Gates, the defense secretary, said, the war against terrorism began in that region and that's where it will end. So part of the reason I think it's so important for us to end the war in Iraq is to be able to get more troops into Afghanistan, put more pressure on the Afghan government to do what it needs to do, eliminate some of the drug trafficking that's funding terrorism.

But I do believe that we have to change our policies with Pakistan. We can't coddle, as we did, a dictator, give him billions of dollars and then he's making peace treaties with the Taliban and militants.

What I've said is we're going to encourage democracy in Pakistan, expand our nonmilitary aid to Pakistan so that they have more of a stake in working with us, but insisting that they go after these militants.

And if we have Osama bin Laden in our sights and the Pakistani government is unable or unwilling to take them out, then I think that we have to act and we will take them out. We will kill bin Laden; we will crush Al Qaeda. That has to be our biggest national security priority.
From that exchange, it's clear that Obama doesn't get it. Even if we didn't take our "eyes off the ball" with Iraq, I seriously doubt that we could have achieved "victory" in Afghanistan by now. Surely Iraq really hurt our cause, but it's not the catch-all blame-all that Obama tries to make it on the campaign trail. How will Obama exactly "put more pressure" on the Afghan government to get things done? In many ways, the Iraqi government is more functional, and Baghdad has had decades more experience in federal rule (albeit dictatorial).

I do agree that the drug trade has to be seriously addressed, and not like Plan Colombia. Maybe we should use our bombs on the poppy fields instead, but bombs alone won't fix it. We have to give the poor farmers a viable alternative, since opium yields them over 10X more profit than other crops. Plus the Taleban forces them to grow the poppies at gunpoint, so unless we can protect the rural population, we can't stop the drug trade.

We weren't "coddling" Musharraf. We coddle Karzai actually. We were bribing Musharraf for sure, but also putting tremendous heat on him to fight the War on Terror for us, even if he dragged his feet at times. We did tolerate his desecration of democracy, but we also got a lot chummier with India during the Bush years. Pakistan wanted a similar civilian nuclear deal, but of course we declined. Yet Obama seeks to continue Bush's unsound policy - pressure Pakistan to go after militants, even if it is offensive and destabilizing. Obama correctly concludes that we are an inflammatory presence in Iraq and our bad conduct is an affront to Muslim sensibilities, which attracts fighters of many backgrounds with many reasons to oppose us. Knowing that, he can't be a hypocrite on Pakistan and Afghanistan. While the current Afghan regime can't survive without Western support, maybe the less our presence is visible in Pakistan the better, at least until things cool down and Zadari earns more credibility. Cross-border raids, even to "take out Osama", don't help that cause. Unless our brutal counter-terrorism operations show direct and significant benefits to the Afghan and Pakistani people (so far not really), then no one will back us being there.

Maybe by now it is too late, as the Islamists have declared all-out war on the "traitor Pakistani government and its infidel US sponsor". Their fragile government is now hunkered down in Islamabad, prisoners in their own nation, like the Iraqi Green Zone. Is that progress? It's party out fault. We have forced Pakistan's hand to become more like us, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. We all raised the stakes by engaging in preemptive warfare, are all now locked in a fight for survival against the terrorists. That changes the nature of the game tremendously, and things could get uglier.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Obama's Middle East challenges

Now that the McCain campaign is on life support, it might behoove us to more seriously examine a President Obama's policies. While I mostly agree with his economic and domestic agendas, he is all over the place on foreign policy, even with seasoned Biden at his side (and just because he heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee doesn't mean he gets all foreign issues). But just so you don't get the wrong idea, I mailed in my ballot total with a vote for Obama. However, I think his supporters can and should also be his most scrutinizing critics. I guess it's tough love? He is a supporter of oversight and accountability, right? Cheerleading and celebrity worship haven't fixed a single problem in history.

It's disappointing that GOP propaganda and world events have made it exceedingly difficult for Democrats or others to promote progressive views on defense and foreign policy. They can't seem to emerge out of the "Dukakis in a tank" shadow, and the Bushies easily reduced a decorated veteran and multi-term Senator like Kerry into an unreliable weakling, strangely when compared to an AWOL National Guardsman who plunged America into 2 wars in 2 years. Of course Democrats haven't done a great job in combating the negative stereotypes against them in this area of government. But I believe that it's foolish for them to try to "out-tough" the GOP. I guess the average American voter does want a tough-talking war leader who will assure us of victory and strike fear in our enemies, but let's remember that there are good reasons why Ike became president while Patton didn't. It's just laughable when a pretty boy lawyer like John Edwards looks at the camera and tells Osama that he can "run but he can't hide".

Nothing is assured in this convoluted world of high-stakes geopolitics, and conditions change constantly. Yes the role of Commander in Chief can be a dirty job, and bombing and killing will be necessary for America to achieve some security objectives, but we should do so cautiously with cost-benefit well in mind. Some of Obama's arguments for pressing the issue in Pakistan are the same things he criticized Bush for the Iraq War: a go-it-alone mentality, consideration of local culture/history, containment vs. confrontation, and creating more terrorists than we neutralize. Killing Osama in a daring raid is counter-productive if our brutality and disrespect for an ally's sovereignty turns Pakistanis militantly against us, destabilizes their fragile coalition government, and allows Islamists to take more control of that nuclear nation.


As most world opinion, and now American opinion, has turned against our involvement in Iraq, I think people would prefer sensible, results-oriented diplomacy to war hero bravado. It's just plain truth that suffering in a communist jail 40 years ago won't make McCain any more able to improve stability in Iraq/Afghanistan or dissuade Iran from advancing its nuclear program. But Obama has also fallen into the GOP trap of oversimplifying very complex conflicts into us vs. them, good-and-evil. I guess on the campaign trail, it's impossible or undesirable for candidates to address the nuances of Muslim sectarianism or post-Soviet ethnic nationalism, and that's the voter's fault. But if we really want change and progress after the Bush years, we have to get a lot more serious, pragmatic, and sober with foreign policy, or horrors like Iraq and Darfur will multiply and intensify.

I really want to discuss Afghanistan-Pakistan since I'm learning a lot about it on the fly, and it seems like the most pressing hot spot now. NPR is airing a series on problems in those nations this week, and I'd like to hear it all before I put something together. So for now let me start with other Mideast conflict zones, and hopefully you won't be sick of me by next week when part 2 comes out.


ISRAEL-PALESTINE

http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/05/1117964.aspx

We have already seen how Obama has changed his views on Israel-Palestine, and taken a much more pro-Israel approach (plus Biden said that there is "no greater friend" to Israel in the Senate than he). I know that Israel is our strategic ally and provides assistance to us in countering Iran and Islamists in the Middle East. There is plenty of justification for continuing our costly partnership with Israel, but also plenty against. Of course no one would get elected acknowledging Israeli military atrocities and questioning our disproportionate military and economic support for a capable, modern nation (http://www.csmonitor.com/2002/1209/p16s01-wmgn.html). I don't expect that from Obama, but at least he doesn't have to be yet another out-of-touch Israel cheerleader in Washington (they have plenty already). In March of last year, Obama said that, "Nobody is suffering more than the Palestinian people." That is a legitimate claim to make, with plenty of supporting evidence. The claim itself wasn't intended to cast blame on Israel, but of course AIPAC cried bloody murder and other Democrats felt compelled to criticize Obama's statement. He has since clarified that he meant the Palestinians were suffering because of their inept Hamas leaders in Gaza. No mention of the suffering caused by the US-backed civil war with Fatah, nor the Israeli blockade, expansionism, or military aggression that the UN has denounced as illegal, illegitimate, and in some cases, immoral. In fact, Obama/Biden's current approach to Israel-Palestine is 99% similar to George Bush's! 4 years of the same?

And some might argue that his stance is even more pro-Israel than Bush's, because some of his language suggests that he thinks Israel has sole claim to all of Jerusalem (despite the illegal annexation of Palestinian East Jerusalem since 1967), even though he should know that many Palestinians would rather die than accept such a peace proposal. He has called for preliminary, limited dialogs with pariah leaders like Ahmadinejad (which 4 former Secretaries of State believe to be a good move, though I'm sure the pro-Israel lobby will fight it), yet he wouldn't talk to the democratically and fairly elected Hamas government in Gaza? How does that make sense, and how does that represent hope and change we can believe in? If Obama is against anything and everything Bush-like, how can he seek to continue the failed Bush policy of cold-shoulder "diplomacy"? Even some Israeli leaders acknowledge that Hamas must be involved in peace talks and negotiations. We might not like them, but ignoring them is more costly than cautiously involving them (and some analysts argue that Israel has been a bigger impediment to peace in the last 4 years than the Hamas leadership in Gaza).

I know that Obama may unfortunately have more challenges than most presidential candidates in convincing pro-Israel Americans to support him (accusations of being Muslim, not much track record in government, etc.), but that doesn't mean he should sacrifice his better judgment and the legitimate needs and rights of Palestinians in the peace process and Near East security. If he wants America to be a beacon for liberty again, then he can't afford politics as usual here. Yet despite these concerns, Palestinians on the street are hopeful that a black US president, who understands racism and injustice from the victim's perspective, will do more for them than just the typical lip service. I hope he won't let them down. On his campaign website, Obama makes absolutely no mention of the Palestinian stituation, yet has a 3-page statement documenting his and Biden's staunch support for Israel and political record to prove it. That says a lot. Do presidential candidates issue official statements indicating their strong support for other prominent allies like the UK and Japan? Maybe an easy first step to "change the tone" in Washington is to tone down such unnecessary and overtly biased rhetoric, which doesn't help anyone in Israel or Palestine have a better, safer existence.

IRAN

While Israel is our comrade-in-arms, it may make for a more dangerous world if we adopt Israel's foreign policy priorities as our own. Which is a main purpose of the pro-Israel lobby in the US of course, to persuade Americans into taking actions beneficial to Israel, but not necessarily to America. We are allies, but one's survival does not depend on the other (and they need us a lot more than we need them). While Israel terribly botched its offensive into Lebanon a few years ago, its low-manpower, high-tech military is built primarily for defense (equipped with a nuclear deterrent also), and would decimate any would-be attackers in the region, Iran included. Clearly Iran is Israel's chief enemy and top security concern, and their nuclear research raises the stakes.

But not so for America, not by a long shot. Unless provoked, Iran poses little direct danger to us. They might talk tough, and Western hawks have capitalized on anti-Semitic, anti-Western rhetoric from Tehran, but really there are no signs whatsoever that they intend to attack us. Yes if we push them, they will logically push back (taking UK sailors hostage, imprisoning American scholars, arming Shia militias, etc.). But they don't have their finger on the proverbial trigger. Iran is a competitor for political influence in the Mideast, but not a direct security threat. Yes, it is possible that her proxies may cause major disruptions in neighboring states, but for now the Mahdi Army and other Shia militias have stood down in Iraq, and Hizbullah has struck a power-sharing deal in Lebanon, so violence has waned (relatively). Nearby pro-West Sunni nations like Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also no friends of Iran, but they know that open aggression will produce terrible backlash, especially with so much vital oil infrastructure for Iran to target, as well as a resurgent Shia minority in the Muslim world, emboldened by events during the Bush years to stand up to oppression. So they tolerate each other (or at least undermine each other covertly), which is a building block of peace I suppose.

But Israel cares not about the repercussions to regional political stability and the global oil trade if she or the US attacks Iran. To them, survival is everything, and Iran must be neutralized at all costs. But to America, even a slight disruption in oil exports from the Gulf due to conflict is much more damaging than even Tel Aviv getting razed. Iran could easily throw a wrench in our projects in Iraq/Afghanistan/Lebanon/Palestine as well, undoing years of progress (or struggle at least). So unfortunately, we have become so irresponsibly entangled in Middle East affairs that our fate is more tightly tied to Israel's, and our objectives more dependent on Iran being defeated. Conspiracy theorists would suggest that Israel desired and ordained this to happen, so here we are.

But regardless of how we got here, a big challenge of this decade is how to deal with Iran. We already know that McCain and most of the GOP have not only drank, but chugged, the Kool-Aid, and are dead-set on confronting Iran as overtly or more so than the Bushies. #2 nuclear power Russia recently invaded a neighbor and nuclear Pakistan is dangerously close to government collapse while battling Islamists, yet Iran (2 years away from a primitive bomb at best) is our top security concern? I am not sure if the Dems recognize the problem within the problem though. Clearly something has to be done, and we can't permit Iranian nuclear activities to go unchecked. But I wonder what an Obama/Biden administration would do about it. They are already the self-proclaimed champions of Israel, so if Israel wanted us to do something rash, or took unilateral actions that almost compel us to act, would Obama do it? So as to not appear weak to terrorists and the GOP, what steps would Obama take in order to "defend Israel"? Are all options on the table? Especially if Iran were baited into doing something stupid, and there was huge political pressure to respond with force like during the Cuban Missile Crisis (even though we know the consequences to be huge), could Mr. Cool resist the hysteria and calm the situation?

IRAQ

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/07/07/080707taco_talk_packer
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/greenwald/7711 (a neocon viewpoint)

The politics of the issue is tricky, because acknowledging changed ideas in response to changed facts is considered a failing by the political class.

- G Packer, New Yorker

We've also seen how Obama was unable to coherently counter GOP attacks against him regarding his unwillingness to support the 2007 Surge, which turned out to be "successful" in their minds and much of America. McCain has even been able to attack Obama's patriotism and commitment to victory on this matter, because more failures in Iraq will be a vindication of his opposition to the Surge and validation to continue his plans for a fixed troops withdrawal timetable. So McCain might be insinuating that Obama wants to be "right" more than he wants to "win" in Iraq. And however untrue that may be, the facts unfortunately leave room for speculation. Obama's people crafted his withdrawal timeline over a year ago when he was running as an anti-war outsider during the primaries, when conditions were much worse over there and war support was politically radioactive. Back then, "Get the hell out" seemed like the most sound strategy available, and it may still be. Though the Center for a New American Security, heavily consulted in foreign policy matters by the Obama camp, has responded to changes on the ground. Once favoring a timetable for withdrawal, they now conclude that "conditional engagement" is preferable:

Under this strategy, the United States would not withdraw its forces based on a firm unilateral schedule. Rather, the time horizon for redeployment would be negotiated with the Iraqi government and nested within a more assertive approach to regional diplomacy. The United States would make it clear that Iraq and America share a common interest in achieving sustainable stability in Iraq, and that the United States is willing to help support the Iraqi government and build its security and governance capacity over the long term, but only so long as Iraqis continue to make meaningful political progress." (New Yorker)

Yet on Obama's website, more or less the same 16-month timetable remains. I don't have the expertise to decide whether a fixed timetable or conditional engagement is superior, but what is telling is Obama's refusal to budge in defiance of changing conditions (again, fairly Bush-like). No one can afford to be wrong in a campaign, or even change their minds I guess. There is nothing wrong with rethinking one's beliefs and modifying plans with a year of additional information to consider. Clearly Obama's people are careful with this issue, and mostly suggest that a President Obama would not just stubbornly cling to outdated withdrawal proposals from his campaign days, but listen to the generals who are reacting to conditions on the ground (but not necessarily agree with them). Though a major goal of his administration is to carefully but expediently end the Iraq War, which is what millions of Democrats and others are expecting him to do. He said as much on his summer Mideast tour.

So he's kind of screwed either way. Fragile gains in Iraq may behoove us to adopt conditional engagement plans instead of a fixed timetable, which could jeopardize regional stability and our long-term prospects there. Clearly we shouldn't have a Korea-like indefinite presence there as McCain alluded, and the oil-rich Iraqi Treasury should finance more of our efforts as the Saudis and Kuwaitis did during Gulf War I. But if he scraps the timetable, Obama's liberal support will revolt against him (unless he is able to skillfully persuade them that this is the best thing we can do for America and for peace, which will be a hard sell), and he will be labeled as a flip-flopper. Plus Bush will still get the "credit" for improving Iraq (he also gets the blame for botching it of course), because he started the Surge and put the generals and diplomats in place who made things better. Though if Obama sticks to his timetable he will be skewered by the Right, especially if violence increases and government breaks down as we gradually redeploy. Though if Obama begins to extirpate us as planned, maybe his predictions will come true: the Iraqis will feel the heat, and make the political and military progress necessary to bear the mantle of responsibility. Our troops will get a break, and there will be more goodwill for diplomacy and redevelopment. It's possible, and he'll be staking his re-election on it.

As I said before, by now it should be abundantly clear to everyone (and especially prominent politicians) that the Surge did have a stabilizing effect on Iraq, but 20,000 more soldiers made less of a difference than fresh-thinking Gen. Petraeus replacing Gen. Franks, less of a difference than the Sunni Awakening rejecting Al Qaeda, less of a difference than Iraqi ethnic cleansing and US construction projects segregating the hostile factions, and less of a difference than the Mahdi Army ceasefire while Al-Sadr went to school, which all happened to coincide with the Surge. Obama was unable or unwilling to make this argument to the public and his political rivals, even though plenty of others could. That really concerns me. So he can still justify his opposition to the Surge: many experts had voiced concerns, our troops are overstretched, and maybe it was still a "failure" because even though it reduced violence and bought the Maliki government some breathing room to actually govern, they still haven't reconciled and progressed much. But the Surge is one of the few "feel good stories" coming out of Iraq for mainstream Americans. Obama has to acknowledge that the troops and generals did a great job, even if they weren't the primary cause for reduced violence. That doesn't necessarily mean that he was wrong and Bush-McCain were right, for the reasons I previously described. But defiance and denial won't do him any good.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

The slow death of Glass-Steagall regulations

We know that deregulation played a significant role in our current financial crisis, but I was surprised to learn how prominently the righteous Democrats factored into the problem. So selective-memory liberals need to cut the revisionist blame (Bush) game, especially Obama, who will inherit a Biblical-scale crisis partially of his party's making. And maybe the Clintonites shouldn't take so much credit for the "great economy" they presided over in the 1990s, when some of their policies contributed to the spread of casino capitalism and our current mess. Needless to say the free-market GOP didn't help much either, but many House Republicans have fought for Main Street common sense since the 1980s, trying to resist Wall Street lobbied and funded initiatives to "emancipate" commercial banks like WaMu to invest our money however they please, and permit the creation of total financial services juggernauts like Citigroup. Such beasts are powerful enough to hold an entire economy hostage (as we now know), and are "too big to fail", even if they blatantly screw themselves and everyone.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/weill/demise.html

This link is an interesting timeline from a 2005 PBS Frontline series about "fixing Wall Street" (oh, if only our leaders listened!). They discuss the gradual dismantling of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act, which established the FDIC in response to the 1929 crash. It also prohibited US commercial banks and bank-holding companies from being both lending hubs and brokerage houses, which creates an inherent conflict of interest and purpose (as we've seen recently). Banks are naturally security and stability-oriented, while securities traders are more risk and volatility-oriented (despite the misleading name). So if banks underwrote securities, then they couldn't lend, and vice versa. I think that makes a lot of sense, but obviously bankers felt that it impeded their ability to make money and be "competitive" with foreign financial conglomerates.

So over the years, Citi, JPM, and others lobbied Washington to repeal Glass-Steagall restrictions. In the 1970s, brokerage houses started to become pseudo-banks, offering FDIC-insured money-market accounts and issuing checks/plastic. We take this for granted today as "normal", but it was not always so, and for the good reasons previously described. In 1986, for the first time the Fed reinterpreted Section 20 of the Act separating lending banks from brokerage houses. They decreed that banks cannot be "principally" involved in securities, but permitted up to 5% of a bank's revenues to come from investing in commercial paper. That percentage seems minor, but for heavyweight banks, it could entail billions in investments able to threaten the other 95%. In 1987, the Fed narrowly voted 3-2 to permit banks to trade in municipal bonds and now-infamous mortgage backed securities. Then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker was skeptical, and feared that easing restrictions would make banks lower their lending standards, recklessly pursue attractive-yet-irresponsible investments, and push bad loans on the public. To assuage concerns, banking heads testified that these changes wouldn't be harmful, because unlike 1930, we now have external protections like the "effective" SEC and "sophisticated" rating agencies, plus modern investors are much more savvy and informed, allowing them to shun risky investments/institutions. The last few years have shown that all those claims were false and Volcker was right.

Also that year, former JP Morgan head and deregulation proponent Alan Greenspan became the new Fed Chairman, replacing "killjoy" Paul Volcker. The Greenspan Fed expanded the bank revenue limit stemming from securities underwriting from 5 to 10%, and later to 25% in 1989. This final change essentially neutralized the purpose of Glass-Steagall, since any major bank could easily do all the risky speculation and underwriting it wanted, and still fly below that generous ceiling. This also opened the door for merger-mania, as commercial banks craved securities firms to turn larger, more diversified profits, and investment houses lusted after banks' vast deposits and loans to package and play on the market. In the majority-Democrat Congress, twice the Senate passed a bill to repeal Glass-Steagall (1984, 1988), but twice the House blocked it, similar to the financial bailout bill this month. Not coincidentally, the FIRE sector (finance, insurance, real estate) was one of the most generous contributors to Congress. In the midterm election cycle of 1997-8 alone, they gave $150M to campaigns and spent $200M on lobbying activities. I can only assume the numbers have gone much higher in this decade.

Many of us were a bit young to absorb the scale of the event, but in 1998 a bomb dropped on Wall Street and Washington, with the biggest merger in history that created Citigroup from Citicorp and Traveler's Insurance (which previously bought the investment bank Salomon Smith Barney). But the deal didn't pass easily and was fraught with controversy. Foremost, Traveler's was an insurance company, and what remained of Glass-Steagall prohibited such a company from becoming a bank as well. So Congress and regulators had three choices: can the deal, change the laws, or force Citi to scrap its lucrative insurance division. But of course those companies' chairmen John Reed and Sandy Weill pushed the Clinton administration, Greenspan, and the Gingrich Congress to change the laws and approve the deal. They met him half-way: the deal would go through, and Citi would have 2 years to divest from insurance. So now Weill et al. were under time pressure to change the laws, and midterm elections were approaching. But more pressure came from Wall Street, where investors punished the stock, fearing Congress wouldn't approve the deal or change the laws in time. In May, the House approved changes to permit banks to also deal in insurance by a razor-thin 214-213 vote, and the Phil Gramm-led Senate Banking Committee signed onto a modified version later.

But we still didn't have a new law. Through intense debate and negotiations in 1999, Weill et al. convinced the White House and Congress (often by direct phone call) to finally do the impossible. The Financial Services Modernization Act was the remaining step in their victory march: Glass-Steagall had finally and totally perished, after 12 failed attempts in Congress over 25 years, and $300M spent in the lobbying effort. The Clintonites were on the way out of the White House and needed a golden parachute, and they got it from Wall Street.

And as we know now, Glass and Steagall were RIGHT.

I'll close with this:

Oct.-Nov. 1999Congress passes Financial Services Modernization Act

Just days after the administration (including the Treasury Department) agrees to support the repeal [of Glass-Steagall], Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, the former co-chairman of a major Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs, raises eyebrows by accepting a top job at Citigroup as Weill's chief lieutenant.


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http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/

1933Glass-Steagall Act creates new banking landscape

Following the Great Crash of 1929, one of every five banks in America fails. Many people, especially politicians, see market speculation engaged in by banks during the 1920s as a cause of the crash.
In 1933, Senator Carter Glass (D-Va.) and Congressman Henry Steagall (D-Ala.) introduce the historic legislation that bears their name, seeking to limit the conflicts of interest created when commercial banks are permitted to underwrite stocks or bonds. In the early part of the century, individual investors were seriously hurt by banks whose overriding interest was promoting stocks of interest and benefit to the banks, rather than to individual investors. The new law bans commercial banks from underwriting securities, forcing banks to choose between being a simple lender or an underwriter (brokerage). The act also establishes the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), insuring bank deposits, and strengthens the Federal Reserve's control over credit.
In 1956, the Bank Holding Company Act is passed, extending the restrictions on banks, including that bank holding companies owning two or more banks cannot engage in non-banking activity and cannot buy banks in another state.


1960s-70sFirst efforts to loosen Glass-Steagall restrictions

Beginning in the 1960s, banks lobby Congress to allow them to enter the municipal bond market, and a lobbying subculture springs up around Glass-Steagall. Some lobbyists even brag about how the bill put their kids through college.
In the 1970s, some brokerage firms begin encroaching on banking territory by offering money-market accounts that pay interest, allow check-writing, and offer credit or debit cards.


1986-87Fed begins reinterpreting Glass-Steagall; Greenspan becomes Fed chairman

In December 1986, the Federal Reserve Board, which has regulatory jurisdiction over banking, reinterprets Section 20 of the Glass-Steagall Act, which bars commercial banks from being "engaged principally" in securities business, deciding that banks can have up to 5 percent of gross revenues from investment banking business. The Fed Board then permits Bankers Trust, a commercial bank, to engage in certain commercial paper (unsecured, short-term credit) transactions. In the Bankers Trust decision, the Board concludes that the phrase "engaged principally" in Section 20 allows banks to do a small amount of underwriting, so long as it does not become a large portion of revenue. This is the first time the Fed reinterprets Section 20 to allow some previously prohibited activities.
In the spring of 1987, the Federal Reserve Board votes 3-2 in favor of easing regulations under Glass-Steagall Act, overriding the opposition of Chairman Paul Volcker. The vote comes after the Fed Board hears proposals from Citicorp, J.P. Morgan and Bankers Trust advocating the loosening of Glass-Steagall restrictions to allow banks to handle several underwriting businesses, including commercial paper, municipal revenue bonds, and mortgage-backed securities. Thomas Theobald, then vice chairman of Citicorp, argues that three "outside checks" on corporate misbehavior had emerged since 1933: "a very effective" SEC; knowledgeable investors, and "very sophisticated" rating agencies. Volcker is unconvinced, and expresses his fear that lenders will recklessly lower loan standards in pursuit of lucrative securities offerings and market bad loans to the public. For many critics, it boiled down to the issue of two different cultures - a culture of risk which was the securities business, and a culture of protection of deposits which was the culture of banking.
In March 1987, the Fed approves an application by Chase Manhattan to engage in underwriting commercial paper, applying the same reasoning as in the 1986 Bankers Trust decision, and in April it issues an order outlining its rationale. While the Board remains sensitive to concerns about mixing commercial banking and underwriting, it states its belief that the original Congressional intent of "principally engaged" allowed for some securities activities. The Fed also indicates that it will raise the limit from 5 percent to 10 percent of gross revenues at some point in the future. The Board believes the new reading of Section 20 will increase competition and lead to greater convenience and increased efficiency.
In August 1987, Alan Greenspan -- formerly a director of J.P. Morgan and a proponent of banking deregulation -- becomes chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. One reason Greenspan favors greater deregulation is to help U.S. banks compete with big foreign institutions.


1989-1990Further loosening of Glass-Steagall

In January 1989, the Fed Board approves an application by J.P. Morgan, Chase Manhattan, Bankers Trust, and Citicorp to expand the Glass-Steagall loophole to include dealing in debt and equity securities in addition to municipal securities and commercial paper. This marks a large expansion of the activities considered permissible under Section 20, because the revenue limit for underwriting business is still at 5 percent. Later in 1989, the Board issues an order raising the limit to 10 percent of revenues, referring to the April 1987 order for its rationale.
In 1990, J.P. Morgan becomes the first bank to receive permission from the Federal Reserve to underwrite securities, so long as its underwriting business does not exceed the 10 percent limit.


1980s-90sCongress repeatedly tries and fails to repeal Glass-Steagall

In 1984 and 1988, the Senate passes bills that would lift major restrictions under Glass-Steagall, but in each case the House blocks passage. In 1991, the Bush administration puts forward a repeal proposal, winning support of both the House and Senate Banking Committees, but the House again defeats the bill in a full vote. And in 1995, the House and Senate Banking Committees approve separate versions of legislation to get rid of Glass-Steagall, but conference negotiations on a compromise fall apart.
Attempts to repeal Glass-Steagall typically pit insurance companies, securities firms, and large and small banks against one another, as factions of these industries engage in turf wars in Congress over their competing interests and over whether the Federal Reserve or the Treasury Department and the Comptroller of the Currency should be the primary banking regulator.


1996-1997Fed renders Glass-Steagall effectively obsolete

In December 1996, with the support of Chairman Alan Greenspan, the Federal Reserve Board issues a precedent-shattering decision permitting bank holding companies to own investment bank affiliates with up to 25 percent of their business in securities underwriting (up from 10 percent).
This expansion of the loophole created by the Fed's 1987 reinterpretation of Section 20 of Glass-Steagall effectively renders Glass-Steagall obsolete. Virtually any bank holding company wanting to engage in securities business would be able to stay under the 25 percent limit on revenue. However, the law remains on the books, and along with the Bank Holding Company Act, does impose other restrictions on banks, such as prohibiting them from owning insurance-underwriting companies.
In August 1997, the Fed eliminates many restrictions imposed on "Section 20 subsidiaries" by the 1987 and 1989 orders. The Board states that the risks of underwriting had proven to be "manageable," and says banks would have the right to acquire securities firms outright.
In 1997, Bankers Trust (now owned by Deutsche Bank) buys the investment bank Alex. Brown & Co., becoming the first U.S. bank to acquire a securities firm.


1997Sandy Weill tries to merge Travelers and J.P. Morgan; acquires Salomon Brothers

In the summer of 1997, Sandy Weill, then head of Travelers insurance company, seeks and nearly succeeds in a merger with J.P. Morgan (before J.P. Morgan merged with Chemical Bank), but the deal collapses at the last minute. In the fall of that year, Travelers acquires the Salomon Brothers investment bank for $9 billion. (Salomon then merges with the Travelers-owned Smith Barney brokerage firm to become Salomon Smith Barney.)


April 1998Weill and John Reed announce Travelers-Citicorp merger

At a dinner in Washington in February 1998, Sandy Weill of Travelers invites Citicorp's John Reed to his hotel room at the Park Hyatt and proposes a merger. In March, Weill and Reed meet again, and at the end of two days of talks, Reed tells Weill, "Let's do it, partner!"
On April 6, 1998, Weill and Reed announce a $70 billion stock swap merging Travelers (which owned the investment house Salomon Smith Barney) and Citicorp (the parent of Citibank), to create Citigroup Inc., the world's largest financial services company, in what was the biggest corporate merger in history.
The transaction would have to work around regulations in the Glass-Steagall and Bank Holding Company acts governing the industry, which were implemented precisely to prevent this type of company: a combination of insurance underwriting, securities underwriting, and commecial banking. The merger effectively gives regulators and lawmakers three options: end these restrictions, scuttle the deal, or force the merged company to cut back on its consumer offerings by divesting any business that fails to comply with the law.
Weill meets with Alan Greenspan and other Federal Reserve officials before the announcement to sound them out on the merger, and later tells the Washington Post that Greenspan had indicated a "positive response." In their proposal, Weill and Reed are careful to structure the merger so that it conforms to the precedents set by the Fed in its interpretations of Glass-Steagall and the Bank Holding Company Act.
Unless Congress changed the laws and relaxed the restrictions, Citigroup would have two years to divest itself of the Travelers insurance business (with the possibility of three one-year extensions granted by the Fed) and any other part of the business that did not conform with the regulations. Citigroup is prepared to make that promise on the assumption that Congress would finally change the law -- something it had been trying to do for 20 years -- before the company would have to divest itself of anything.
Citicorp and Travelers quietly lobby banking regulators and government officials for their support. In late March and early April, Weill makes three heads-up calls to Washington: to Fed Chairman Greenspan, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, and President Clinton. On April 5, the day before the announcement, Weill and Reed make a ceremonial call on Clinton to brief him on the upcoming announcement.
The Fed gives its approval to the Citicorp-Travelers merger on Sept. 23. The Fed's press release indicates that "the Board's approval is subject to the conditions that Travelers and the combined organization, Citigroup, Inc., take all actions necessary to conform the activities and investments of Travelers and all its subsidiaries to the requirements of the Bank Holding Company Act in a manner acceptable to the Board, including divestiture as necessary, within two years of consummation of the proposal. ... The Board's approval also is subject to the condition that Travelers and Citigroup conform the activities of its companies to the requirements of the Glass-Steagall Act."


1998-1999Intense new lobbying effort to repeal Glass-Steagall

Following the merger announcement on April 6, 1998, Weill immediately plunges into a public-relations and lobbying campaign for the repeal of Glass-Steagall and passage of new financial services legislation (what becomes the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999). One week before the Citibank-Travelers deal was announced, Congress had shelved its latest effort to repeal Glass-Steagall. Weill cranks up a new effort to revive bill.
Weill and Reed have to act quickly for both business and political reasons. Fears that the necessary regulatory changes would not happen in time had caused the share prices of both companies to fall. The House Republican leadership indicates that it wants to enact the measure in the current session of Congress. While the Clinton administration generally supported Glass-Steagall "modernization," but there are concerns that mid-term elections in the fall could bring in Democrats less sympathetic to changing the laws.
In May 1998, the House passes legislation by a vote of 214 to 213 that allows for the merging of banks, securities firms, and insurance companies into huge financial conglomerates. And in September, the Senate Banking Committee votes 16-2 to approve a compromise bank overhaul bill. Despite this new momentum, Congress is yet again unable to pass final legislation before the end of its session.
As the push for new legislation heats up, lobbyists quip that raising the issue of financial modernization really signals the start of a fresh round of political fund-raising. Indeed, in the 1997-98 election cycle, the finance, insurance, and real estate industries (known as the FIRE sector), spends more than $200 million on lobbying and makes more than $150 million in political donations. Campaign contributions are targeted to members of Congressional banking committees and other committees with direct jurisdiction over financial services legislation.


Oct.-Nov. 1999Congress passes Financial Services Modernization Act

After 12 attempts in 25 years, Congress finally repeals Glass-Steagall, rewarding financial companies for more than 20 years and $300 million worth of lobbying efforts. Supporters hail the change as the long-overdue demise of a Depression-era relic.
On Oct. 21, with the House-Senate conference committee deadlocked after marathon negotiations, the main sticking point is partisan bickering over the bill's effect on the Community Reinvestment Act, which sets rules for lending to poor communities. Sandy Weill calls President Clinton in the evening to try to break the deadlock after Senator Phil Gramm, chairman of the Banking Committee, warned Citigroup lobbyist Roger Levy that Weill has to get White House moving on the bill or he would shut down the House-Senate conference. Serious negotiations resume, and a deal is announced at 2:45 a.m. on Oct. 22. Whether Weill made any difference in precipitating a deal is unclear.
On Oct. 22, Weill and John Reed issue a statement congratulating Congress and President Clinton, including 19 administration officials and lawmakers by name. The House and Senate approve a final version of the bill on Nov. 4, and Clinton signs it into law later that month.
Just days after the administration (including the Treasury Department) agrees to support the repeal, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, the former co-chairman of a major Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs, raises eyebrows by accepting a top job at Citigroup as Weill's chief lieutenant. The previous year, Weill had called Secretary Rubin to give him advance notice of the upcoming merger announcement. When Weill told Rubin he had some important news, the secretary reportedly quipped, "You're buying the government?"

Sources: FRONTLINE's interviews for "The Wall Street Fix" and published reports by The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Time, Fortune, Business Week, and other publications.