Showing posts with label America. Show all posts
Showing posts with label America. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Black lives matter vs. All lives matter is a false debate

Maybe this is a microcosm of the overall race impasse in America. Blacks and minorities want equal treatment as guaranteed by our Constitution (not to mention human decency). They are not calling for special treatment. Even the arguments in support of slavery reparations are not excessive and have plenty of precedent.

However, I think some whites dislike the race debate because (1) no one likes feeling blamed as the bad guy, or enjoying an unfair latent advantage (especially in a nation of "self-made" individualistic success), and (2) they get turned off by what they view as blacks/minorities already getting special treatment (welfare, immigration amnesty, affirmative action, political correctness, etc.) and wanting more. Of course the evidence suggests that such an attitude is misguided, and ignores the obvious facts that some minorities have worse outcomes for health/wealth/edu/incarceration/etc. vs. whites even when you control for other variables.

So "black lives matter" can be misinterpreted as "blacks are more important." Which is of course not the point of the moment, and not what the supporters believe. The whole genesis of the moment is the fact that blacks are treated as second-class (or worse) by many measures in the US, are fed up about it, and want to raise awareness. I don't think that is unreasonable. But then you get the white privilege backlash (no, only "we" are allowed to be special!), and they criticize the movement by saying "shouldn't all lives matter?" Yes, they should! But you're not doing it, and the victims are disproportionately the poor and darker skinned. So when those lives get equal respect (validated by actions and data), then the "black lives" folks will gladly disband I think.

I guess it is related to whites' "fear of blacks" again. Fear of them getting more power (even equal power is a threat), uprising, and taking over (hence no traction on slavery reparations). Obama in the WH was bad enough. Why can't they be meek and respectful like the Charleston blacks after the shooting? Well some civil rights folks have criticized the Charleston response as conditioned by decades of southern blacks' fixation with needing to please whites and be accepted by them (even though they never will).

But here is another example of the empathy deficit. Would the critics of "black lives matter" just quietly accept it when their communities get raw deal after raw deal (or unpunished murder after murder)? Of course not. Obama gets elected and you get the Tea Party movement (sure other factors contributed like the Recession, but you know what I mean). You get armed standoffs like with the supporters of Cliven Bundy in NV (but the white cops didn't send in storm troopers and tanks to break them up). So why is it OK for "marginalized" whites to stand up for their rights (even violently), but not OK when blacks do it - and do it mostly peacefully (and they have way more legit grievances to protest about)?

I guess even the ability to assemble and protest in America is not equally guaranteed and free of bias.

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Maybe you heard that FNC wants BLM classified as a hate group (after a couple recent high-profile attacks on cops that may have been linked to anger over Ferguson/Baltimore/etc.). I know FNC doesn't speak for all of White America, and they are intentionally provocative, but their hostile overreaction to BLM kind of validates American bias and why BLM is actually needed. Good job, Fox.

https://www.facebook.com/HuffingtonPost/videos/10153332388156130/

Let's remember that demographically, it's highly likely that more cop killers are white than minority, and not motivated by politics (I couldn't find data on cop killers' races though). And statistically, being a cop in the US is still safer than the average job. Being a cop in the US is still safer than being a young black man in the US. At least a cop can fight back against attackers, wears Kevlar, and is backed by the law.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jun/10/the-counted-500-people-killed-by-police-2015

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Race and America

http://news.yahoo.com/shooting-downtown-charleston-south-carolina-031543897.html

We don't yet know the motives of the shooter (only that he is a 21-year-old white male who is still at large in SC). But authorities are labeling this as a hate crime. I know that one incident does not make a trend, but could this be a signal of growing white backlash against "Black Lives Matter" and other efforts to expose racial injustice?

I worry about white people (esp. men) who feel economically marginalized and dignity-attacked by national events since the recession. The worst thing would be a white-power militant backlash like some of the right-wing European parties that rapidly gained prominence during the Euro crisis.

Of course the hardships and insults that some whites feel in America may be real, but the culprits are obviously not minorities. But the true culprits are really good at concealment/propaganda and letting media deflect attention away from them. All you hear from FNC is that Christianity, white people (men), "US values", guns/cops, and conservatism are under attack. But the data show that evangelical Christianity is as strong as ever (despite declines in all other forms of Christianity), whites still have huge advantages in terms of incarceration rates, income, life expectancy, and most other socioeconomic metrics. Also, 3X more hate crimes are perpetrated against blacks than whites, even though blacks are only 12% of the US.

Obviously many whites are having more struggles in America. If they are ignorant, it's fairly easy to persuade them to blame immigrants, gays, liberals, etc. Much of Rush, Fox, etc.'s airtime is devoted to this. So are they actually the race-baiters who motivate some angry whites to attack minorities? Blood could be on their hands (like the Gabby Giffords shooting, etc.).

http://mediamatters.org/video/2014/12/01/fox-guest-we-will-see-more-white-americans-unde/201727
http://www.newshounds.us/to_bill_o_reilly_white_christians_are_under_attack_but_not_african_americans_actually_killed_by_the_police_041615
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/16/opinion/charles-blow-woe-of-white-men-again.html

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Also, did you hear about this Supreme Court ruling (TX did not violate the 1st Amend. by prohibiting a Southern group from making a custom license plate with the Dixie flag) where Thomas was the difference maker, siding with the liberals for the first time? If I can assume that his decision was motivated by his race and his deeper understanding of US racial history, is this an indictment that the Court is biased by personal background? I know we are all biased by our backgrounds, but the Court is supposed to be fair and just and blind, right?

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/confederate-flag-plates-lack-support-supreme-court

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This was a good discussion about Charleston and race: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/finding-roots-dylann-roofs-radical-violence/

I wish the guests would have hit harder. Yes, white (men) feel under attack these days - but they should have said that those feelings are utterly baseless and not grounded in fact. Or if some whites are having a harder go these days, it is not due to gains by minorities (and there certainly isn't a minority conspiracy for "payback" against whites - even if it's quite deserved). If they don't outright dismiss these lies, then people will continue to believe them (like how the GOP injects doubt into the global warming issue). You can't give Holocaust deniers and Holocaust historians equal respect just to maintain a "fair debate". Bill Maher said that denying the existence of racism (and accusing others of race-baiting) is a form of racism in itself, and I think that's correct. Some on the right would rather attribute Roof's actions to "hatred of Christianity" instead of hatred of blacks. Speaking of that - to those who don't think the SC massacre (and our reaction to it) was racial, what if a synagogue or a meeting of (white) Wall St. execs was attacked by a black power extremist? If America's response would have been different (and it definitely would have), then that shows bias.

IMO, the debate about the Dixie flag is a red herring. I understand that its presence evokes powerful emotions on both sides, but it's a distraction from the core issue. Fighting over symbols is often a fruitless distraction. We can't change the past (nor its icons) and it's better if we accept it and move on. I suppose it's understandable for Southern folks to feel pride about their roots and the "War for Southern Independence." But they also have to acknowledge that some aspects of their society/regime were evil - and the consequences on blacks persist today. They can acknowledge and find a better path forward like Germany, or they can stick their heads in the sand like Japan and Turkey. I would also hope that African-Americans can see past the flag and not let it consume disproportionate attention. They have more important battles to fight.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

2 NYPD officers "executed" by black man, possibly for revenge

This is terrible news: 2 NYPD officers "executed" by black man (motive possibly revenge for Brown, Garner, etc.).

http://news.yahoo.com/two-nypd-officers-shot-in-patrol-car-in-brooklyn-212637751.html

It won't help the "Black lives matter" movement (may turn off the centrist public to their plight), and will probably make the cops even more angry, fearful, and aggressive. The alleged killer (a younger black man) seemed to be a desperate, distressed person who was wanted in connection with another shooting. What he did was abominable. For all we know, those 2 officers were excellent public servants, and totally nonviolent and nonracist (one Asian, one Latino, both with wives and one with kids).

Sadly, it reminds me of the even more terrible recent Pakistan school massacre. Let me repeat - both attacks were totally unjustifiable and barbaric. But for background, the Pakistani Army had been heavy-handedly raiding and bombing Taliban-held villages as part of a crack-down. Women and children were killed without hesitation. The Taliban fighters were obviously upset and wanted to strike back at a soft target, to make the Army "hurt like they were hurt". When a powerful force shows contempt for you and treats you like a subhuman, and you have no channels for peaceful redress and no one seems to care about your pain, there's only so much a human can take. Eventually some unstable members of that community (with training and weapons) will lash out and strike back to try to get even, because they have nothing to lose. Would they rather just die a slow death and fade away in silence? Or would they rather get some satisfaction that they struck fear and suffering in the hearts of their enemy? Oppression breeds desperation, which could be a catalyst for atrocity.

So for urban black America, day in and day out many deal with prejudice, mistreatment, and in some cases violence (murder rate for US blacks is over 4X that of whites). Obama even said that every successful black professional like him has been mistaken for the help at a fancy event. I can't imagine what it feels like to be constantly surrounded by that negativity, disrespect, and hostility - even though you just want to live and let live, and didn't cross anyone. It's just because you exist. Maybe the media inflamed the racially-sensitive situation, but with unpunished killing and beating after unpunished killing and beating, everyone has a breaking point. To be honest, I'm in awe of the restraint that black America has shown this year. But there are just so many guns in America, and so many temporarily or clinically unstable people going through hard times, and so many soft targets, that an incident was bound to happen unless the gov't and law enforcement made a serious effort to empathize, be contrite, communicate honestly, and reform (which they didn't).

This is the first time a NYPD cop has been killed on duty since 2011, which is pretty amazing considering they have a staff of 49K (not sure how many of those are beat cops). I think the # of civilian killings the NYPD has committed over that time span is far greater (at least 19). There will be national coverage, life insurance payouts, and full dress funerals for the slain officers. Far less respect was given to the victims of NYPD violence. It's obviously wrong to kill cops, but America mourns deaths differently and values life differently, which is also wrong. It's wrong to keep your boot on the throats of people and expect them to just take it forever, like dogs. It's a tragedy for all sides. Look, being a cop can be a damn hard job. Being black in America can be a damn hard life too. I wish both sides could understand that and show compassion, to make things easier on each other instead of more and more negativity. Otherwise the cycle of revenge and distrust will just go on forever, with more innocents suffering along the way. Sadly, it's the same for most protracted conflicts like Israel-Palestine, India-Pakistan, etc. But if the Northern Ireland factions could forgive and achieve peace, it's possible elsewhere. But it has to start with the two sides giving a shit about each other's plight. 

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This is a pretty sobering and effective analysis by The Economist on America's violent law enforcement practices. Actually the NYPD, LAPD, and police from larger cities are not the biggest problem (misconduct per capita is lower). They have made huge reforms since Rodney King, although they still have a way to go (Stop and Frisk, though it was recently suspended). It's the small police forces like Ferguson and Albuquerque that are the problem, where the officers are often far less diverse, less competent, having worse leadership, and under far less public/media scrutiny.

http://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21636044-americas-police-kill-too-many-people-some-forces-are-showing-how-smarter-less?fsrc=scn/fb/ed/pe/DontShoot

# of killings by cops last year in Japan, Germany, and the UK combined (pop. ~270MM): 8
# in the US (pop. ~316MM): 458

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Some major sources, like police unions and former NY governor Pataki, are literally blaming Mayor DeBlasio and Al Sharpton for Brinsley's attack on the 2 officers ("Blood is on your hands" - pretty disrespectful stuff). Probably the NYPD have marked DeBlasio as an enemy, and will do what they can to unseat him. While I haven't been following every single statement DeBlasio and Sharpton have made on police violence, I am fairly sure that they did not say anything remotely resembling race-baiting and a call for revenge. And in all of Brinsley's social media posts, I don't believe he mentioned that his actions were motivated by a public figure. But I suppose if you don't declare that you support everything the cops do 100%, and they are always in the right, then you are "anti-cop". That is how Tel Aviv and AIPAC respond to any sort of criticism of Israeli actions and policies (no matter how reasonable and fact-driven). If you're not fully supportive, then you're a vile anti-Semite. There's no place for that rubbish in intelligent conversation.

I suppose that some people want a simple, clear explanation for traumatic events that disturb them. Muslims hate us for our freedom, Marilyn Manson caused Columbine, etc. But that approach is often too reductive, inaccurate, and unhelpful. People are understandably upset and what to focus their anger on someone. But to irresponsibly blame public figures, whose only sins were to show some compassion for the families of police violence and dare to suggest a review of police policies, is not that different from Brinsley lashing out at 2 random beat cops over the Garner and Brown cases. And heaven forbid, but what if an angry, disturbed ex-cop decides to take a shot at DeBlasio or Sharpton over this uproar? Would we be justified to blame the people who called out DeBlasio and Sharpton for inciting violence against them?

Thursday, August 7, 2014

The aftermath of the Gaza war

Sorry for the long commentary below. It just kinda snowballed and I thought these articles made a lot of interesting points.

As before, sentiment in Europe is generally more anti-Israel than in America. This is possibly driven by the larger Muslim populations in the EU, as well as those gov'ts more dovish politics vs. America's. However, the pro-Israel camp is chalking this up to deeply-rooted European anti-Semitism (affecting as many as 165MM Europeans according to some of their think tanks - but then again, when you are a hammer, you see nails everywhere). Strange that the "anti-Semitism" only rears its ugly head when the IDF murders scores of Palestinian kids. I guess they only come out when the liberal, pro-Hamas media incite them? Obviously that is ridiculous, and I think most Europeans don't have a problem with Israel (or worldwide Jewry) when that country isn't breaking laws and hurting people. Unfortunately, there has been some real anti-Semitism too. I am not sure about the death/damage from hate crimes, but some Jewish establishments in the EU have closed as a precaution until the war blows over. Still, some hateful words at an overseas rally is different than a modern military destroying lives and property of poor people, and not compensating them for it (as usual, the international community will pay the tab of Gaza rebuilding - only to be leveled again in the next war).

Globescan took an average of 20 countries' opinions on whether certain nations had overall positive or negative influences on the world. GER, CAN, and UK lead the pack with about a 3:1 ratio of positive-to-negative. US and China are similar at 1:1 (way to be a zero, USA! USA!). Israel is in between Russia and N Korea, at about 1:2 negative (however they can still gloat that they are better than Iran, at over 1:3 negative). I know opinion polls have limited value, and I don't know how they selected respondents, but this seems to suggest that world opinion is generally negative on Israel. Hamas/Palestine was not part of the survey, but I can imagine their rating would be pretty low too. Israel might chalk this up to ignorance or anti-Semitism again, but this survey was about a country's impact on the world, and more Jews live outside of Israel than within it. I think it's a reflection of gov't policies.

In the US, non-Republicans and Americans under 50 tend to evaluate Israel's actions in Gaza as unjustified, while older folks and Republicans (who tend to be Evangelicals) take the opposite view. Regarding age, this is likely influenced by memory - folks over 50 may actually remember the Arab-Israeli wars (when it was an old-fashioned army vs. army fight, not occupying bully vs. poor resistor). So that clouds their perception of the current conflict, and like Fox News, they may only see Israel as the innocent victim surrounded by strong, evil enemies. This is likely how the Tel Aviv propaganda machine wants us to feel, even if it's incompatible with current realities.

The West is also seeing Israel become less Western. The Economist says that this could be driven by the 1990s influx of 1MM Eastern European Jews who were less educated than previous waves of emigres, and not accustomed to democracy and Western thinking (they may have lived under the Soviet regime). They are part of the "might makes right" camp, and may be more accepting of brutality to ensure a strong, secure Jewish State. This has manifested itself in internal media censorship, marginalization of the peace movement, more racism toward Palestinians, and possibly the rise of Likud over Kadima a few years ago. The West may have less in common culturally with Israel now, thereby reducing the likelihood that we will agree on policies, priorities, and tactics. Maybe that is why many in the West are outraged about the civilian casualties and expect the IDF to hold themselves to higher standards than that. Whereas the Israelis may take it less seriously, or prefer to focus on Hamas' role in the casualties - whether accurate or not (stop using them as human shields, if you didn't fire rockets we wouldn't have to invade in the first place, they don't accept our right to exist, etc.). Still, allies don't have to totally understand each other to have a fruitful relationship. However, what has the West really gotten out of its relations and investments in Israel? Israel would say that they are the front lines of the War on Terror (similar to Pakistan, but the difference is we fully acknowledge the problems associated with our partnership with Pakistan), and they keep madmen like Assad and Ahmadinejad in check. I don't buy that, because Sunni nations in the area can fill that role if Israel wasn't involved (and they would likely do it less belligerently). Israel obviously contributes a lot of good to the world in terms of science, commerce, and human capital - but I seriously question their value to US strategy/interests in the region (esp. for the price tag - both financial and perceptual).

Israel could be reacting to this souring Western sentiment in 2 ways, both of which are not helpful for the future. (1) If Europe and younger, non-Republican Americans are so anti-Semitic, we won't be able to count on them when times get tough. Therefore, let's just do what we want and not care about their opinions. Pro-Israel lobbying will make sure US aid will still flow and we'll prevail. (2) We need a PR offensive in the West. To counter all the pro-Palestinian lying voices on social media, let's shout louder and re-hash the IDF's talking points. Westerners are just being deceived; let's show them the truth.

Re: (1), it's never a good thing when a state is accountable to no one. It's not that Israel isn't reliant on other nations (not necessarily for survival, but they are not immune to sanctions either), but those partners are unlikely to administer the tough love if Israel oversteps its bounds. Or in other words, people may rather let Arabs/Palestinians suffer than dealing with the costs of disciplining Israel. Re: (2), it's sometime true that many people will believe a huge lie, but usually the public can sniff out BS. I say this time and time again, but if your side is so right, why do you need to bend over backward to convince people? It should be self-evident. Like no matter how many millions the Chinese spend on PR and what defaming things they say about the Dalai Lama, I think very few non-Chinese will side with them on the Tibet issue. 

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Regarding the fragile ceasefire now and potential peace resolution, Norman Finkelstein (the DN link) has an interesting, and disconcerting take. The vast majority of Israelis support actions like the current Gaza war (because they feel it makes them safer, costs them little, and hurts their sworn enemy), and are not that serious about working hard for a two-state solution (little to gain from their perspective and potentially a lot to lose in terms of national pride/Zionism and security). Unfortunately, their history in Gaza has only reinforced this. After Sharon pulled the settlers out, Hamas took over and the rockets started to rain down. Israel was "forced" to invade at least 3 times. Maybe some in Israel feel that it was better when they outright controlled Gaza (now they are more like prison guards). So the land-for-peace model seemed to fall on its face, and Israelis may have less faith in it for the future.

So re: Gaza, some refer to it as "mowing the lawn." Every now and then, they have to blow stuff up, to keep them off balance for the next time Israel "has to" invade. So this current invasion is not about the 3 Israeli teens, not about the rockets, and not about the tunnels supposedly infiltrating Israel proper (you see how the gov't changed its premise for war mid-stream just like the Bushies?). Regarding the teens, there is no proof that Hamas was behind that, and some new evidence suggests the contrary. That was a tragedy, but not justification for a war. Regarding the rockets, the new Egyptian regime (that took over after Mubarak) destroyed most of the smuggling tunnels on that border, so it is very unlikely that Hamas is well stocked or equipped with newer "super rockets" from Iran that are supposedly deadlier. Regarding the tunnels into Israel - a tunnel has 2 openings, right? Why go through the effort of invading Gaza and killing thousands when Israel can just destroy the tunnel openings on their side any time they want (if such tunnels exist)? Also, attacking hospitals and a power plant have nothing to do with those stated goals. So this war is more and more looking like just mowing the lawn. They learned their lesson from the problemating Lebanon invasion. They don't want Hamas to "fortify" Gaza and make it harder for them if a serious invasion becomes necessary. Hamas is a lot weaker than Hezbollah, but they have been building tunnels and defenses within Gaza. That could help explain why the IDF death toll this year was around 60 soldiers, vs. 10 in their 2008 Cast Lead invasion. But they have spent this month destroying all that Hamas stuff. So clearly Gaza is not "independent" if Israel has this level of destructive influence on a whim.

Finkelstein thinks that the ceasefire will hold because Israel has finished mowing the lawn for now. Israel ends an invasion when (a) their objectives are met or (b) there are no more targets to attack except ones that would involve an unacceptable level of civilian or IDF deaths. Even the IDF realizes that if they went deeper into the most populated areas of Gaza, the death toll could be 5-10X higher, and then they might have real issues with the int'l community. Also, if they press on, they risk losing more soldiers - and being a conscript army, the Israeli public is very sensitive to losses. That's why they bomb targets to hell (in spite of collateral damage) before they put boots on the ground. But still, no more targets are available in Gaza without incurring higher risks. He also predicts that Hamas will agree to peace with the conditions that the blockade is lifted and Fatah polices the border crossings. That would essentially neutralize Hamas' ability to put up any meaningful resistance in the future, and I am not sure how many functional rockets/ammo they still have in storage. So in a sense, this lawn mowing strategy has worked for Israel. The rockets and small IDF losses were minor annoyances, but they eventually may get Hamas to disarm and fade out of relevance. If that plays out, it would set a scary precedent for Israel and other occupying powers. Take the hard-line approach but blame the resistance for the violence. You have the resources and staying power, so keep the pressure on and starve the resistance into irrelevance. This is pretty much what Syria, Sudan, and Russia did/are doing. So no one has to make a deal or make concessions for peace, you can beat the resistance into submission.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

The Jewish identity and Birthright angle of the Israel-Palestine conflict

"...the rabbi spoke of those who hate Israel and hate the Jews, but did not speak of the Israeli army, which is burning children alive; did not condemn the hate of Israelis for Palestinians. He spoke of peace, but he spoke of peace as a thing to force on the Gaza strip, not a thing for both sides to work toward... I think no one can possibly be reading the Torah anymore because this is not what we were told to do, this is not how we were told to act, and if you believe Israel is yours because God says so, how can you ignore the rest of what he said?"

http://www.salon.com/2014/07/26/israel_is_not_my_birthright/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

"After the 2006 Lebanon war, Brandeis researchers found that Birthright alumni were more likely than other young American Jews to view Israel’s military conduct as justified... Initially, [American youth turned fallen IDF soldier Max Steinberg] didn’t want to go on the Birthright trip, but once he did, it changed him... It turns out that it’s not that hard to persuade young people to see the world a certain way and that Birthright is very good at doing it."

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/07/max_steinberg_death_how_birthright_convinces_american_jews_to_embrace_israel.html

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Sacre bleu! Stop checking your Blackberry at night!



Earlier The Guardian and BBC reported that France passed a law barring tech and consulting workers from using their work devices after hours (and for them, after hours means 6PM-9AM), affecting up to 1M employees. But it turns out the law only applies to hourly contractors (~200K workers) and amends a previous law that workers must have at least 11 hrs of free time per day, which is not exactly super generous.

This story was probably a Brit attempt to mock "the lazy, hedonistic frogs", but really - is it so admirable to be plugged into work almost 24-7 at the expense of your loved ones, personal interests, and health? Even if we love our job and want to work more (or are we just addicted, pressured, or socialized to think that?), you have to stop sometime! Even too much of a "good thing" is unhealthy; what happened to balance? Some managers have to force US workers to take vacation... that is kind of pathological right?

Well, despite having a 35-hour work week, at least 6 weeks of yearly vacation, and shall we say, "different" union laws, French worker productivity is similar to that of Germans AND Americans. So they are just a lot more efficient than us? Maybe knowing that you have under 9 hours a day to get your stuff done, it is motivating and clarifying? Instead in the US, it's always "let's see how much more we can pile on." But is that stuff really value-added? I think you would agree, but I have never read a brilliant late-night email and definitely don't do my best work late when I'm tired/distracted. If the late night stuff was so important, you would have worked on it at 10AM. Unless you need to respond to a 4-alarm fire at midnight, but in that case you may be hourly with a pension.

So, F-U GM and your macho, consumerist, Europe-mocking work ethic. Let he who is without sin cast the first stone (don't make deadly ignition switches and don't beg for a gov't bailout). Sorry, but I think truly successful people would be ashamed to have a Caddy in their driveway these days. So you get the posers like that B-list blond actor you hired on the cheap. I'll take a Renault, and use the leftover cash to have a nice vacation... IN FRANCE (well, Tahiti and Martinique are still technically France right?).

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Obamacare fiasco discussion


If you thought Obamacare was bad...

As usual, China is way worse.

http://m.npr.org/programs/all/2/242344329

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Part of another conversation I had about the recent Obamacare troubles... would love to hear your thoughts if you have time.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/obamacare-fix-what-is-it-good-for

Yeah, I have been really saddened and disappointed by how the Obama admin. has rolled out heathcare.gov. When you know the GOP is looking for any little excuse to scuttle the program, you'd think they would be extra careful every step of the way! It seriously looks like it was put together in a week by interns. I know health care is complex as hell, with different laws in different states, so then maybe they should have fought harder for single payer from the start! And as you suggested, if this is a wacky attempt to convince America that single payer is the way to go, it probably won't worry either since trust in gov't is so low. Well, even if Obamacare fails and is repealed by President Christie (LOL), I think it got the health-industrial complex to pay attention and realize that Americans (and even some of our leaders) are tired of being gouged by a broken system that under-delivers on health outcomes for all the money it takes in. Companies/doctors are being more cautious and not just assuming they can raise prices, over-prescribe treatments, cherry pick "profitable" patients, and bilk Medicare and get away with it every time. So I guess that is some progress?

I agree with you about the misrepresentation. That is the problem when passing the bill becomes the goal rather than actually helping citizens. But unfortunately Obama has not been a very transparent president, despite his claims. I think that is a reflection of his and his admin's poor communication skills. While Obama is an inspirational campaign speaker on the abstract level, he is fairly poor in terms of leadership and on the practical policy level, as we saw during the Romney debates. He gets too academic and technical, and doesn't empathize with others. Most of us barely understand our own health care, much less gov't policy, and it can be an emotional issue. Obama relied too much on logic/macroeconomics, and didn't do enough to put people's fears and concerns to rest (especially in the face of the GOP lie machine). Unlike Clinton, Obama never "felt our pain." So there wasn't much trust from the get-go, which was reflected in Obamacare's persistent low approval numbers among the public (despite high public support for the individual parts of the law, like covering kids until 25, no rejections for pre-existing conditions, etc.). So if he communicated better from the start, I think the public could be a lot more forgiving of the glitches now. Customers mostly forgave the iPhone 4 for it's "death grip" dropped calls problem, because they loved the company and were addicted to the product. ;)

Speaking of the implementation, it is seriously his Bay of Pigs. Like Kennedy, I bet Obama was too trusting of his people that they would handle it properly, and wasn't skeptical enough. He did go on the national PR tour to drum up support and interest, but he didn't really manage expectations and prepare the country for what could go wrong. In 2013, there is just no excuse for a website that works so poorly. Testing and pilot sessions with real customers were severely lacking. I haven't had time to follow the media discussion, so I am not sure if the pundits and Sebelius already covered these points. But they had ample time to prepare for the website launch, so I don't know why their product is so crappy now.

In general, I think a website is supposed to launch small at first to mitigate risk (like 5% of expected peak traffic) and gradually ramp up as long as things are working. I am not sure, but did healthcare.gov suddenly turn on for the whole country all at once? That is a bad strategy. Maybe try it out with ISPs from a couple small states first, check the performance, collect feedback, and make necessary fixes before expanding the reach. It would have let them catch bugs (or maybe delay the 100% launch) before it became a national embarrassment with thousands of frustrated users. I heard an alternate rollout plan was first to make sure the site was stable and let users browse plans only (to make sure the info they got was accurate too!), then when registration/enrollment was ready and tested, they would add that functionality later. But Obama's people worried that users would browse plans, not like any, and never come back (if you are so worried about that, then maybe your product is not so appealing and you should fix that first!), so they wanted to require registration prior to browsing. There was also the political pressure to get as many people enrolled as possible during the initial launch period, so they required visitors to register up front. But that is bad for several reasons: web users often mess up the registration process, and if you mandate it at launch, you introduce a bottleneck and they will flood your customer support line all at once. Also registration is annoying, so that will cause many users to just drop off too (if they can even get the page to load). Plus let's remember that many uninsured Americans or those who buy individual plans could be lower income and less tech savvy, even if they have a helper to assist.

On the issue of the "deception" over keeping your old plan and old doctor, I have mixed feelings about it. On one hand, if Obama knows that a major argument against Obamacare is a supposed loss of freedom, then "forcing" people to change plans/doctors (even to ostensibly better ones) is risky and plays into the GOP hand. But if they need to eliminate ineligible plans to make the whole system work, then I understand, but that is a major program risk that should have been addressed years ago. The doctor-patient relationship is sensitive and almost sacred, so if Obamacare really does prevent some people from keeping their old doctors (even if they are crappy or charge too much), then that is unacceptable to me. I think you can convince people to let the gov't upgrade their coverage (but again, Obama's people did a terrible communication job), but change is hard for some folks and you can't just drop their coverage suddenly and tell them to choose a new plan on a buggy website. All this mess plays into the conservative narrative that gov't is totally meddling in our lives and inept in providing services (which is unfortunately true at times). The 'fix' from the first link above is too little, too late. Maybe a better plan would be what companies do for new hires. They default you into a basic health plan, and you have the option to pick a different one within 60 days. At least then everyone is sure they are covered from the start, and there is no rush/panic/anger. Maybe that is impossible nationally, since health plans and laws are different in each state (another issue we probably need to address)?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/11/13/what-the-obamacare-enrollment-numbers-really-tell-us/?wprss=rss_homepage&clsrd

Monday, June 10, 2013

How technology is affecting the American Dream

We talked about most of this already but it's a good take on the issue: http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/01/after-your-job-is-gone/

Also another take on the elites vs. rest idea (even Jay-Z, Obama, and Oprah are not spared!) - the author Packer was on Real Time tonight: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/books/the-unwinding-by-george-packer.html?pagewanted=all

An aside: L is right that Maher is an idiot and a psycho when it comes to security issues and Islam-bashing. He rightly trashes the 2nd Amend. yet proudly owns guns because "the other crazies are armed". He claims to be a true Libertarian, but supports all sorts of liberty-reducing actions that ostensibly prevent terrorism. It's funny... self-respect and humility often make us better people. But self-preservation and self-love make us pricks. No one wants or needs to die, but the world doesn't need us either.

I guess America's Great Society of the '60s and '90s socialism in Europe were the exception and not the rule. As the author said, most of the modern world resembles the pre-French Revolution "nobles and serfs" model. But it's sad because our generation in the US was brought up to believe that the Great Society was our birthright and if anything, we would make it even better in our lifetimes. Of course things weren't all rosy in the past (bigotry, ignorance, Cold War, etc.), but it's amazing that America of that time period had low unemployment, low wealth inequality, ample gov't services, and low deficits.

Now the opposite is true, though our employment situation is much better than Europe's... and their society may be unraveling faster than ours.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21578386-euro-zone-desperately-need-boost-no-news-bad-news-sleepwalkers

But that is a little deceiving, because while US unemployment is down to like 7.5% now (much higher for young people though), the quality and security of most American jobs are not great, the social safety net is about depleted, and many are not counted as unemployed because they have taken the disability route instead (as we've discussed), or have just become the "permanent, uncounted, unhirables".

The change coincides with the rise of Si Valley, hyper-finance, and globalization. We can't be sure what caused what, but similar things happened during the Guilded Age, fueled by the tech bubble of the time - railroad, electricity, telco, etc. that Wall St. ate up. I guess disruptive tech always creates new winners and losers, but usually doesn't rewrite the labor map. Our new tech industry seems more extreme: highly paid jobs with specialized skills that are not accessible to the mainstream, emphasis on quick ROI rather than long term sustainable growth, and "virtual" products that create a ton of wealth for some but not many new jobs (or in fact replace old jobs). That could be called "progress", but the effects appear to be socially unjust too.

 Also here is a great interview on the issue with Moyers and Richard Wolff:

http://billmoyers.com/segment/richard-wolff-on-fighting-for-economic-justice-and-fair-wages/

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Bill Maher on The Great Gatsby and the modern wealth gap

America's bizarre fetish for romanticizing the leisure-class, mega-rich, Guilded Age types like the Buchanans depicted in Gatsby is especially peculiar today considering what we have (or haven't) learned from the Great Recession, as well as recent the populist backlash against US plutocrats.

The sad irony is the rich would be better off with less income disparity and a more flourishing middle class. Clearly when basic needs are more securely met, people feel more comfortable to consume, which benefits most of the economy and trickles up to the wealthy. Well, the rich got around that issue by expanding credit (pay day loans, adjustable rates, even tax refund loans).

The rich complain that they already pay the lion's share of the nation's taxes. While that is numerically true, maybe we can reframe the issue. When employers and other the powers that be give people quality wages and benefits, they will be healthier and less of a burden on health services. When education is more democratic and affordable, people will make better economic choices and become more productive, which will increase GDP, lower demand for public services, and reduce the "tax burden" on the rich. When we don't fight wars or adopt bad taxation and trade practices just to give special interests more profits, then that also reduces the need for taxes. So if the rich are tired of paying so much tax (even though marginal rates are much lower today than the 1960's), then reduce the wealth gap and make the market more free and democratic.

And when workers are not stressed out and distraught over neighborhood crime and horrible commutes (caused by defunding public services/infrastructure to support tax breaks), rising health care, real estate, and education costs (driven by the irrationally high willingness to pay by those who can afford it), uncertain retirement (brought on by the cutting of pensions, the Fed's low rates pushing people to equities, and market volatility due to risky speculation, manipulation, and fraud), and the omnipresent threat of layoffs/outsourcing/downsizing, then they are actually able to concentrate on their jobs and become more creative, productive, and valuable to the company and its stakeholders. When employers treat their staffs well, they are less likely to be a workplace cancer, a slacker, a defector to the competition, or new competition (launching their own venture). It's strange that the rich, who love to congratulate themselves for being so clever and superior, can't grasp this simple concept.

But here is the circular problem: political corruption allows some companies to enjoy economic advantages. They out-compete all the mom & pop shops without the Washington connections (yes I know companies succeed on their own merit too, but far too many cheated to get to the top and secure their standing). Other firms witness this "recipe for success" and follow suit, because now it's too risky to try to win the old-fashioned way. This Darwinism leads to the "survivors" of the dog-eat-dog market often being the biggest jerks. So now we have fewer and nastier employment choices, and the % of Americans working for public companies is at an all-time high. Employers know they have the leverage, so they cut benefits and make the workers more dependent on investment income (for the minority who can even afford to invest). More and more, our survival is tied to the stock price of our employer and our chosen securities. So for the few shareholders who actually vote, they want boards and execs who are the shrewdest SOBs around - to make the stock appreciate. And for passive shareholders, they are just happy when the price goes up, and they don't want to know how. So public companies are making our lives hell, yet they are also our only potential salvation from hell, so we make a Faustian bargain with them. It is paradoxically in our economic best interests to support those who harm us. 

When people are not desperate, they are less likely to steal or kill or revolt (yes, it has come to that). As Maher said, you can only squeeze people so far before they push back (especially when the squeezers are a tiny minority). It's not as bad as the starving peasants in monarchic France or Russia, but there will be a point when the masses won't take it anymore (see the Arab Spring, which started as an economic uprising). Or look at the angry youth and public workers in much of Europe now. When that stuff happens, it's no good for the rich either (unless you are like the Shah and can loot Iran before you flee to posh exile - not trying to give Lloyd Blankfein any ideas). So wouldn't they rather share a little more of the pie in order to preserve the good thing they have going? They say that love knows no bounds, but really selfishness and greed (even to the point of self-destruction) is America's most abundant resource. Well, one could argue that greed is a twisted form of love - just loving the wrong things.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Glock's rise and gun control

http://www.npr.org/2013/02/01/170752391/how-the-glock-became-americas-weapon-of-choice

This is an older interview, but related to the gun control debate now. Technically speaking Glock is an excellent firearm vs. its early peers, but its marketing was leaps and bounds ahead:

- They fed on the negative press that Glocks were the weapon of choice of terrorists and bad people (if those hardened killers choose Glock, maybe I should too!).

- They made overtures to Hollywood armories to make sure Glocks got exposure in big time TV/movies like "Law and Order" (and unintentionally in many rap songs).

- Around the time the Glock was invented, cops were using old S&W revolvers and the military was using heavy Colt 1911-like automatics. The Glock was futuristic looking, with a sensitive trigger, made of plastic, and with no external safety. People were skeptical about using it. The genius of the Glock is that it is super-reliable, super-simple design, and made in a very efficient manufacturing process. Their original idea was to leverage that cost advantage to sell cheap and undercut rivals. But then they decided on a premium price, in order to signal to customers that it wasn't a flimsy plastic toy gun - it was in fact a premium, high-performance, superior gun. Though for hesitant police departments, Glock basically had a "name your price" + trade-in policy (subsidized by superior margins to the public). Cops were also motivated to get Glocks because they were tired of being outgunned by criminals with them. So this strategy got them impressive market share, and got the gun double exposure from the "good guy" cops and the "bad guy" crooks.

Here's the gun control side of the story. Glocks were made to accommodate a variety of magazines, some as high as 30 rounds. The gun control community were very opposed to Glocks, and looked foolish after they claimed that the plastic gun would get through airport security (half of the gun is still metal, and its outline would be obvious in an X-ray). But they got momentum after the Killeen, TX mass shooting (the worst in US history at the time) where the perpetrator used a Glock and other firearms. So capping magazine capacity was part of the assault weapons ban, though not retroactive (i.e. existing guns would be grandfathered). Legislation is slow and Glock anticipated this change, so for years prior their plants were pumping out a ton of Glocks and large mags. They sold like hotcakes leading up to the ban, in some cases at 3X higher prices than before Killeen. I guess like the AR-15 now. 

Glock was also the punching bag for many police departments, despite being their supplier. They employed a controversial practice of "trading in". In order to drive more sales, Glock reps would reach out to PDs and offer to buy their old guns in exchange for new, better Glocks (sometime every 1-2 years). PDs agreed, and then Glock would sell those used guns on the secondary market. Of course some of those guns got in the hands of criminals. Cops were blaming (and even suing) Glock for "flooding the streets" with guns, but where did those guns come from - the holsters of cops! If PDs resisted the urge to get the latest-and-greatest guns (subsidized by their current guns), then the problem could have been much reduced. They could have mandated that Glock melt down their old guns and sell them as scrap instead.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Election comments

First of all, weed in WA and CO!!! http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-pn-marijuana-votes-20121106,0,3992024.story?track=rss

I'll just comment on the election and politics here, not necessarily on the merits of each party's philosophies and policy agendas.

I can't remember the last time I felt so proud of the American people. Personally, I think this is bigger than 2008 considering the current political environment. Voters rejected the GOP's schizophrenic candidate, as well as their policies of exclusion, obstruction, wealth/power inequality, obsolete beliefs, and scapegoating the wrong people for America's problems.

And ironically, the electoral college is now working in the Dem's favor! Romney almost won the popular vote but got wiped out in electoral votes. But now there are "structural" advantages for the Dems in terms of electoral vote distributions, similar to what the GOP enjoyed from Nixon to Bush Sr.

We worried that Cit. Utd. would change politics forever, and I do believe it had a noticeable effect. But Obama's campaign is the most sophisticated and effective grassroots, micro-donation, new media machine we've ever seen (and it's a platform that they can hopefully transfer to future candidates and continue to have an advantage vs. the GOP on). In the end, that beat out the Adelson, Koch, Trump, and Rove led money and misinformation blitz. Outside groups have to pay a higher fee for TV ads than campaigns, so $1 of money raised by Obama2012 equaled about $1.50-2.00 of Super PAC money. So once again, the GOP miscalculated. Everyone (but Nate Silver) predicted that the young people, poor, and minorities (who turned out in record numbers for Obama in 2008) are now disillusioned and unlikely to show up for Obama like that again. Well they did, and even more so for Latinos. 

But still, about as many people voted for Romney as Obama. A lot of white males, older folks, and the wealthy. Maybe the GOP will realize that America is not like "Leave it to Beaver" anymore and those groups are not enough to guarantee a win each time, but I doubt it. They chose Ryan over Rubio or a woman (and he didn't even deliver WI). Well, the Ryan pick was kind of forced by the nomination of Romney - clearly not the GOP's first choice. I guess Christie wanted to wait until Obama was termed out to give it a shot, probably a smart move. 

So did the "core strengths" of the GOP actually cause them to lose here? It gained them money but cost them votes, and fortunately votes still determine our leaders. The Tea Party, ties to big business, and pro-Israel lobby became liabilities. Most Americans do not feel directly threatened by Iran, do not believe that Israel will be attacked any time soon, and care more about domestic issues. Our foreign policy is far from comfortable, but Osama is dead, America is tired of war, and the focus on these narrow issues to placate their big donors and the hawks didn't persuade many voters who weren't already sure votes for Romney.

How about big business? A private equity mega-millionaire who outsourced jobs to China and didn't support the auto bailout may not be the most convincing messenger for the conservative solution to economic growth. Despite the latent displeasure with Obama over the economy, the "supply side" argument didn't gain traction among non-core GOP voters. And it's not really a great strategy to persuade disillusioned independents and liberals to vote for you when you accuse half the country of being lazy bozos with their hands out (the veterans, elderly, marginalized?), and when you accuse a key growth demographic (Latinos) of stealing jobs and undermining our recovery. 

And then there's the Tea Party. They energized the GOP and thumped the Dems in 2010, but became a liability now. The are too regressive, intolerant, exclusive, and hateful - just not very pleasant people you want to associate with. A lot of presidential elections is about getting casual or infrequent voters out for you. These folks have more centrist, timid views - which is of course anathema to the TP. They aren't winning friends and turning off a lot of key voters with stuff like:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/opinion/friedman-hope-and-change-part-two.html?ref=opinion&_r=0

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Maybe the US isn't such a religious nation?

http://www.npr.org/2012/10/24/163527979/what-we-say-about-religion-and-what-we-do

But we are sure good at guilt-fueled lying! The common stats show that a much larger % of Americans report being religious and attending worship regularly vs. the EU and virtually all other developed nations. But is it true?

Self-reporting often produces suspect information due to self-esteem, social norms, and image issues - like will an alcoholic admit to his/her problem if directly asked about it, especially from another person face-to-face? 45% of respondents claimed that they went to services EVERY week, but many preachers suspect that is inaccurate because based on what they know of population stats, they should see their pews much fuller then. Americans think that they are supposed to respond that they attend services regularly, otherwise they may not think of themselves as "good people".

So the survey staff tricked the respondents; instead of posing the question directly, they instead asked them to recite their morning schedules for each day of the week. This "disarmed" the respondents and they forgot that they were "supposed" to say they go to worship every week. In this case, only about 20% said they attend church weekly, which is on par with many EU nations.

Of course the act of attending church is not necessarily indicative of one's religious convictions and how important faith is in one's life. Maybe if the survey asked how faith affects daily decisions and political beliefs (or what is the role of religion in society), they may find differences vs. Europe even when reducing the chance of respondent lying. That's of course ironic because EU nations literally have political parties called "Christian Democrats" or whatnot, yet I don't think their beliefs would even come close to those of Palin, Aikin, Ryan, etc. (extreme examples I know). Or at least the Euros know to separate their personal beliefs from the secular constitutional duties of their offices.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

French parenting vs. Tiger/helicopter parenting

http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201203071000




I know before we discussed the merits and pitfalls of obsessive, micromanaging "Tiger" or "helicopter" parents in the US, but here is the opposite extreme: the "laissez-faire" French method. I have never been a parent, but the French method seems likely to reduce overall family stress with little to no harm to the kid (and in fact may teach beneficial habits like patience, self-control, and self-sufficiency). But in general, the kids are not the center of the family, they are the "supporting cast." The couples' marriage is still the top priority. So the adults may maintain higher satisfaction, and the kids are less likely to become egocentric, spoiled brats. They learn that when they cry or mess up, there aren't frantic, doting parents/grandparents immediately racing to their aid. I guess Americans fear that if they don't come running, their kid will end up scarred for life, or they look like negligent deadbeats? And despite all this attention, the kid will probably resent, rebel, and drift apart later anyway, whereas French kids grow up and happily continue to spend time with their parents. Of course these are all generalizations, and no one knows how much parenting techniques actually affect a child's future.



Of course there is a spectrum of behaviors, but the French model is not about being "perfect parents" to give their "precious darlings" every possible joy and opportunity in life. That's impossible anyway, so why run yourself ragged trying? French parents are not obsessed with consuming "parenting paraphernalia," nutrition, and tutoring, yet French kids end up better educated, more law-abiding, and healthier than Americans on average (and middle-class birth rates are higher in France). Of course French society is a lot more mature and adult-centric than ours, and there are many more social services available to make parenting easier on the French. So for Americans, our gov't provides very little help, and our parents put more pressure on themselves to engage in nonstop parenting, so it's a recipe for disaster. Also, schools in France are for education, not for babysitting and learning bad social habits, like they are here.



Another difference is how self-expression is encouraged/managed. Americans, despite being micromanaging, also tend to go easy on the discipline and limits, for fear of damaging self-esteem, creativity, or something. I guess that's why we always hear at the malls, "Mommy I want, I want, I want!" But what is the value of a creative, confident, expressive kid who expects a level of attention that is probably impossible to sustain when they're older? The French philosophy is that unreasonable desire leads to an unhappy and imbalanced kid, so they need to learn limits or that will hurt their self-esteem, creativity, etc. 2 means to the same end I guess. Boredom is also a tolerated and even encouraged part of childhood. Instead of staring at a screen or having an adult entertain them 24-7, maybe kids should learn to sit quiety and imagine/contemplate the world.



A caller on the program: "American parents think their little darlings are gifts to the world, and expect that the rest of us should adore them too." That's probably some sort of psychosis associated with the parents' own inferiority and vicarious ego issues, as well as our cultural values.



FYI, British parenting resembles the American model more than the French

Monday, September 12, 2011

The US transconti​nental railroads: not exactly a poster child for capitalism​, or are they?

http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201109061000




Richard White, a Stanford professor, recently published a book on the history of US railroads and the tycoons who ran them. Contrary to the popular mythology about the "heroic" and "self-made" champions of industry like Huntington and Stanford, it turns out that those men and the companies they ran only made it into the history books due to massive corruption, abuse of gov't resources, and human/environmental damage. And we have the general notion from econ 101 that firms make money by providing demanded goods/services to consumers in a cost-effective way. But for the railroads, every sort of business and market perversion you could think of (prior to the derivatives era) was attributed to them. Though we still have this strange adoration of the railroads as a romance and celebration of America, Old West freedom, and industrial capitalism.



Yes it was impressive that we could lay track from the Mississippi River to the Pacific in just a few years, and made amazing technological advances during the process, but it turned out to be a net loss for the country. Despite our misconceptions, many railroads went bankrupt or needed gov't "bailouts" to survive. And it was hardly free-market: transcontinentals were just not needed in the late 1800's (the demand for long-haul freight and personal transport just wasn't there to justify the huge costs), and even after the railroads were built, it was still cheaper and quicker to use SHIPS to get from SF to NYC, around South America and all. So what was the point of building them? Railroads were not reliable (especially during the winter months), so merchants still favored ships. Like any great capitalists, the railroads didn't respond to this deficiency with improved performance, but engaged in anti-competitive practice instead. They bought up most of the excess capacity on freight ships, creating scaricty and bringing ship rates closer to railroad rates. They negotiated with ship lines to get them to slow down their vessels too. Why try to outdo your competitors when you can just pay them to come down to your level instead?



The most respected railroad men avoided transcont. projects like the plague, and what was left were speculators, washed-up entrepreneurs looking for another chance, and crooks (sound like other modern industries we know?). What was significant about this period was the advent of corporate lobbying. The US railroads were pretty much the first manifestation of the modern American corporation. They pushed for Washington to create the conditions necessary for their flawed businesses to survive, similar to a Maoist or Soviet failed central-planning project. They were justified as a necessary "public good", even though the public had virtually no need for their services at the time. But when something is a public good, we may irrationally spend to keep them going even if they aren't doing any good for us. And of course stakeholders needed to justify their decisions and get public buy-in with propaganda and marketing, hence the Manifest Destiny, pride, and nationalism angles. There's nothing that US industry can't do, we're settling the savage lands with good old US hard work, go west for adventure and riches young man, yadda yadda. Sadly, there was more public outcry against the greedy, inept railroad corporations back then vs. the current greedy, inept firms today. The author speculates that this is due to enhanced marketing and penetration of US corporations today (corps play a much bigger role in US life today), so we are less likely to condemn something that we are associated with.



DC gave the railroads (RRs) huge guaranteed loans and literally millions of acres of free land (that they still own today and don't pay taxes on), even on terribly risky projects with no evidence of future profitability. RRs sold junk bonds to eastern investors by hiding much unflattering financials from traders (in fact, the big 3 US ratings agencies were started to rate RR bonds). And still the incompetent RRs needed several public bailouts to break even (even though the tycoons and big investors made out quite well off the US dime). And worse, the RR bankruptcy terms were so lax that the same doofus execs were allowed to retain control of the firms (not like Obama forcing GM to change their leadership team in exchange for bailouts, just when their execs were getting effective). Their debts were written off, so now these failed firms had a huge financial advantage over the viable, honest RRs (also sound familiar?), and drove some of them out of business. Talk about dysfunctional markets: the weak kill off the strong? Like the fruit companies in Latin America, the RRs asked the gov't to step in to violently break up labor strikes, clear out local Indians, and such. As many people died working on the RRs each year as the Civil War battle of Shiloh, often without investigation, punishment to firms, and compensation to victims (especially if they were Chinese).



So now that these joke of RRs were built, what to do with them? The firms had to get people to use them to gain revenue, so there was a big push to encourage settlement (although net population transfer was eastbound in the early RR years), buffalo hunting, cattle ranching, and mining in the West. There was no real demand for increased cattle ranching, silver, and buffalo, but the demand was manufactured with major gov't incentives, often with terrible environmental consequences (overgrazing, buffalo near extinction, mining pollution). And all the booms associated with those economies of course ended in bust and disaster for many Americans too.



If we learned our lessons from the RRs, the current dot-bomb and housing crashes might have been avoided. It's ironic that the most ardent libertarian proponents of the free market are the ones who most strongly advocate for our most uncompetitive industries. It's not the free market principles that they love, it's just taking advantage of whatever system is in place (loopholes and all) to come out ahead, no matter the cost to others. Obama and others talk about the need to invest in the future so we don't fall behind. But the problem is investments are based on predictions and many of those made by gov'ts turn out to be wrong. Look at the CA high-speed rail project - another total boondoggle where the true demand just doesn't justify the huge costs. Considering all the areas where CA needs more cash, it is a huge opportunity cost to sink billions into another rail gamble. But this is the price you pay when ideology trumps economics.



We wanted to settle the west and make tons of money, so we thought building RRs would get us there. But it was ahead of its time and caused a whole bunch of other problems. If you believe in the free market, let the market demand tell you when it's time to build RRs. If they are so desirable and well-planned, then they will easily get their own funding and won't need gov't loans and bailouts. The author contrasts the Dakotas. South Dakota's RR network was built bailout-free, and turned out to be much more high-performing than the nearby gov't-supported RR in North Dakota. In Europe and Japan, RR firms had to raise their own private capital before breaking ground, so their networks were a lot leaner, better, and weren't subject to the moral hazard associated with US firms wasting other people's money without accountability. Or if the RRs are truly a public good, nationalize them with a set of transparent laws and public input governing their operation. Of course there is the opposite extreme with China, where the gov't invested billions into another un-needed high-speed network, just to create jobs and grease the palms of various bureaucrats. But projects were rushed, safety standards and training ignored, and many of their trains run with mostly empty seats.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Bin Laden's death

Vengeance is not justice, but it is often a shallow substitute.

Not to be a killjoy (but be honest, you were expecting this), but I would have preferred America to have a more tempered response to the Bin Laden news. All the flag-waving, gloating, and "God bless America" celebration, while somewhat justified in a long war with few significant victories for the US, won't really help us secure a better future. Especially the religious terminology from Palin and others only serves to complicate reconciliation (and regardless of what the zealots say, most terrorists or extremists can still be bargained with under the right circumstances - see the Sunni Awakening and "nice" Qaddafi). When it's a religious war, it's winner-take-all, which has been the wet dream of psychopathic warmongers for centuries. Both sides think god is on their side, and will help them smite their enemy, yet claim that they worship a prophet of peace? Huckabee said "Welcome to hell, Bin Laden." I thought it was "Let he who is without sin cast the first stone," and "Love your enemies"? And that man used to be a Baptist minister.

That's why I wish during his speech last night, Obama would have called on Americans to practice restraint, use this occasion to reflect and remember the victims of war (on all sides), and think about what each of us can do to promote peace and security in our neighborhoods and abroad. I wish he would have refrained from the "G.B.A." cliche. Otherwise it's quite grotesque to see the richest nation with the most powerful (and expensive) military jubilantly celebrating one man's death, especially a man weakened by disease who poses very little direct threat to us, and who was hiding out in broad daylight while we were combing vast swaths of rugged terrain for him for years (and killing many of the wrong people during our hunting efforts). Sadly, it reminds me of the Munchkins celebrating Dorothy's house falling on the Wicked Witch, when the Witch's meaner sister was still out there. As one KQED commentator said this morning, "It's not a football game."

The identities of SEAL Team 6 and the intel personnel responsible for the actual attack may never be known (unless they blow their cover, appear on Oprah, and write tell-all books), so they are happy just to accomplish their mission, and don't need the praise of politicians looking for a sound bite as we head towards election season. I am sure it was the biggest rush of their lives to conduct this historic raid, but of course they were doing it out of love for country. I bet the 9/11 hijackers felt similar pride for their special mission. I'm not saying that our troops are on the same level as terrorists, but it's so funny how everything in the world seems to have its mirror, while politicians and ideologues only see black and white. Well one thing is for sure, this mission will definitely be re-created in the next installment of XBox Call of Duty.

So where do we go from here? There are a lot of unanswered questions. The "original" Al Qaeda, Af-Pak-based and led by Bin Laden, was mostly irrelevant since 2003, and bigger concerns exist from other terror networks like Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (supposedly the people behind the underpants and Time Square bombers), radicalism among Muslim youth in Europe, and of course Iranian nuclear research. Then there's all the political upheaval in many Arab nations, and how those events play out could really reshape the security landscape for us. Also, why was O.B.L. permitted to live in a heavily guarded compound in a nice military suburb in our ally Pakistan? It's pretty clear that this wasn't a joint operation with the Pakistanis, because their military-intel establishment is so full of leaks that someone would have surely tipped off Bin Laden. Osama's people built that custom compound with high walls and barbed wire, had couriers coming in and out every day, and even burnt their trash, and no one hunting Bin Laden noticed until this spring?

Also, why the hasty burial-at-sea? While I doubt that even our gov't would dare to falsify Osama's death, the swift handling raises some eyebrows and opens the door for conspiracy theories. Why not return the remains to the Bin Laden family in Saudi Arabia? The KQED guest said that the US may want to avoid having Osama's corpse on display somewhere for veneration and inspiration, so they took this course of action. Lastly, why didn't we try harder to capture Osama? He was supposedly killed by a "double-tap" to the side of the head. Does that mean it was an up-close execution? Isn't Osama more useful to us alive? Even if he won't give up intel (even under torture), some questioning could probably be useful - and isn't he supposed to stand trial for the embassy bombings and 9/11? Or are we worried about what he might say on the stand? Not to incite conspiracy again, but it is peculiar. I know that no captive is worth losing soldiers over, so if the SEALs didn't feel they could capture O.B.L. safely, better to shoot to kill?

It's pretty clear that justice has NOT been done over 9/11, even with Osama dead. Congress is still dragging its feet over compensation for sickened first responders. The wars we launched in response to 9/11 created a bunch of new injustices and problems. The root causes of terrorism that partly inspired Osama are still mostly intact: Crusader-like US military presence in the Middle East, Western support of corrupt oil regimes and Israeli aggression, vast wealth and human rights inequalities, abuse of Muslim immigrants, and other issues that can be seen as insults to Islam. I know Muslims have done plenty of horrible things to each other and us since 9/11 too, so clearly the case is not closed. Finally, let's remember that all the terrible damage done to the US and our interests on 9/11 pales in comparison to the amazing losses we incurred during the recent financial crisis. That "attack" was perpetrated by Western greedy bankers, ignorant investors/borrowers, corrupt politicians, and lax regulators. That wasn't Al Qaeda at all, it was us. So who is the bigger enemy that we should fear and fight?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110502/ts_nm/us_binladen_compound
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_bin_laden_the_raid
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_exclusive/the-secret-team-that-killed-bin-laden;_ylt=AtJwovoSU36wQK1iPsoahRxH2ocA;_ylu=X3oDMTNsMXZucW9jBGFzc2V0A3libG9nX2V4Y2x1c2l2ZS8yMDExMDUwMi90aGUtc2VjcmV0LXRlYW0tdGhhdC1raWxsZWQtYmluLWxhZGVuBGNwb3MDMgRwb3MDMgRzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3JpZXMEc2xrA3RoZXNlY3JldHRlYQ--
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_bin_laden;_ylt=Ai99lNU7AeFlZp8jNWRL9hJH2ocA;_ylu=X3oDMTJmNmMybWFyBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTEwNTAyL3VzX2Jpbl9sYWRlbgRjcG9zAzEEcG9zAzEEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yaWVzBHNsawNhcHNvdXJjZXNkbmE-
http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201105020900

Monday, August 16, 2010

Problems with US exceptionalism

From a retired Army colonel and now professor at Boston Univ.

http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201008121000

After WWII, the US was the only industrial power that wasn't decimated by the conflict, so it made sense for us to exert global leadership in rebuilding the world (in our image) and establishing the UN to enforce justice and resolve conflicts peacefully. But maybe that privileged victor status went to our heads, and 60 years later we and some allies now act in defiance of the UN, and routinely engage in wars of choice, not "just wars" of last resort. Although we are a big, omnipresent target, the 50 states of America have not really been threatened militarily since Pearl Harbor, apart from four suicide airliners. Why do we still feel the duty/destiny/entitlement to "make the world a better place" through projection of military and economic might, especially when most of our efforts have caused more harm than good for the majority of those affected? Hindsight is 20/20, but some signs at the time indicated that unchecked communist domination and their nuclear destruction of Western society was not really likely. Yet we designed and executed an aggressive Cold War foreign policy assuming that all the world's reds were unified and committed to our demise. It wasn't just about peace-loving Americans reluctantly forced to contain dangerous commies, it was about us actively defeating our rivals to achieve global superiority ourselves. But of course we couldn't go overboard, or the Soviets would launch their nukes, so we conducted limited or proxy wars. Then came the Vietnam wake-up call, but unfortunately America's post-Vietnam leaders were the very people who didn't suffer from the war, didn't understand the war, and instead re-wrote its narrative in order to continue a flawed US interventionist strategy endorsed by the military-industrial complex. So that led us to the Iranian Revolution, Israel-Palestine impasse, Latin American civil wars, Afghanistan (2X), and Iraq (3X). We weren't 100% to blame for those situations, but we didn't really play a helpful role either.

What is worrisome is that "constant war" now seems to be the price we pay for trying to free the world. If it's not the Soviets, it's the Latin drug cartels, the Eastern European gangsters, African warlords, the few remaining commies, or "Islamo-fascists." We are rehashing the exact same insincere rhetoric, and forcing our "professional volunteer military" to work overtime (to the point of exhaustion and suicide for some) because we can't allow a bunch of turban-heads to undermine our global standing. We have more soldiers and bases overseas than protecting our shores. But our Middle East failures have demonstrated that even we cannot always bend others to our will, we don't have all the solutions worked out, and the world is really complex and maybe impervious to sudden external improvement, even with our huge resources. And we've paid an even bigger price, since beyond our military casualties and expenditures, we've made the price of crude quadruple, poisoned international diplomacy for years, and our massive debt has compromised progress on most other national priorities. Those factors have only served to strengthen our rivals too. Plus our military actions have created new enemies and dispersed formerly more concentrated, conspicuous threats. The Times Square and underpants bombers probably would be living normal, lawful lives now if we made different war decisions.

I know that we can't just bury our heads in the sand and ignore global problems/injustices, but there are less expensive and destructive ways to approach them. If we really want to make the world a better place, half of war is rooted in poverty, economic injustice, and lack of law/education. We can easily invest in development projects that alleviate those global problems and reduce the likelihood of conflict, which will also create economic opportunities for Americans and score us diplomatic/humanitarian points. And for the hardcore violent people out there who are bent on hurting us and others out of twisted hateful ideology, surveillance, defensive measures, and surgical anti-terror missions may be more effective than occupying entire nations. Cheap, easy cyber-monitoring of communications and money wires have prevented more terrorism than our entire war in Iraq, and no one had to die. Lastly, if we improve our own ethics and conduct, and eliminate some of our offensive, unjust practices, that will go far to advance our supposed goals of global peace and freedom.

Bottom line, we have to learn to let go. Humanity and the world have gotten on just fine without America for 99.99999% of history. There's no natural law dictating that humans must shape the world in our image, that a benevolent superpower must maintain order in the world, and that the power must be us. We are barely in control of our own checkbooks; how can we expect to control the world and its 6B diverse inhabitants? US exceptionalism is a hard ideology to wean off; we all were indoctrinated in grade school and every election cycle. We feel noble and proud to be the vanguards of global freedom, white knights standing up for everything that's good. While others cower and capitulate, we confront the dark forces of the world. Mass media really exploits this, and I'll admit that I wanted to join the military as a kid, and more recently was a little moved by Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech at the time. We beat King George, the Apaches, the slave masters, the fascists, and the Soviets. We made the world safe for democracy and capitalism, and we can do anything we set our minds to. Yes we have done some good along the way, but did we have the right to drastically alter the lives of so many, and was it worth the steep price some had to pay for our ambitions?

Even our educated, perceptive, 21st Century President Obama is not immune. In his famous, jubilant election victory speech in Chicago, he asked Americans to help him "put our hands on the arc of history, and bend it once more towards the hopes of a better day." What hubris, even if we really have all the best intentions. It is true that the US has the power to write, or end, history any time we want. But will it be for the good of the few people in power, or the greater good? Sometimes the best thing we can do is nothing, and our world will never be free of evil and violence. That doesn't mean we shouldn't stop trying to be good global citizens, and we do have the serious responsibility to use our vast power and wealth for good. So let's think very hard about the ways to do that properly and successfully, instead of rushing to assert ourselves in every single conflict that threatens our prestige, and masking it with some noble crusade rhetoric.

Feedback to NPR's story on parenting temperamental teens

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129150658

To Morning Edition,

As I contemplate starting my own family soon, I was fairly disgusted with this story on parenting strategies for dealing with temperamental teens. While I think your guest, Dr. Kastner, had good general advice for conflict mitigation among familial ADULTS, I don't think kids deserve to be reasoned with that way. Kids are already too spoiled and coddled today, even versus Gen X's youth. Parenting is not about bargaining and compromising to make everyone happy; parents are the authority because they provide food, education, shelter, and many luxuries that you and I didn't have as children. The least modern kids can do to show their respect and appreciation is to behave properly and not talk back. They are not the bosses of the household. I understand the desire to cultivate self-esteem, and plenty of strict, angry parents unfortunately turn abusive, but would parents rather have their kid grow up to feel good about him or herself, but become an egotistical, undisciplined jerk in the process? America already has too many of those.

That hypothetical academic exercise of the teen writing a statement reflecting on the consequences of vandalizing a neighbor's house is ridiculous. Pediatrics and behavioral science can help us understand the tumultuous process of growing up, but can't be simply used to condone and explain away bad behavior. Kids are not wild animals. Even in the heat of the moment and under peer pressure, a 13-year-old should still be able to practice good decision making and do the right thing. If not, then the parents and society have truly failed. If kids really were that out of control, they shouldn't be allowed to go out unsupervised and put themselves and others in danger. If I was caught spraying shaving cream on a neighbor's home, my fairly liberal immigrant parents would paddle the lesson into me, prohibit me from hanging out with those "bad influence friends," and I would never do it again. In fact, the shame of bringing that trouble on my family would be motivation enough. I wouldn't have needed to reflect and share about it like a support group.