Showing posts with label tax. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tax. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Tax dodging by the super rich

This is a "no duh" story to end 2015, but the explicit details are interesting (more so than the typical corporate inversions we've recently heard about). During the Clinton years, the 400 highest income American households paid an effective rate of 27%. Now it's 17%. And because payroll taxes hit the less wealthy harder, that 17% rate means that the highest-income Americans are paying about the same tax rate as a family with $100K household income (80th percentile in the US). How can that be democratic and just?

Like their gated communities and hedge funds, there is an exclusive-access world of private tax dodging infrastructure that the super-rich pay millions in fees to access (including political contributions), but it saves them tens or hundreds of millions in taxes per household. These families span the political landscape, which is especially dismaying for the supposed "progressive rich." If they adopt the same practices as the Kochs, then they are just adding to the problem instead of fighting it.

Their biggest source of tax savings is of course that schlubs like us earn wages as income, while they earn the bulk of their money through complex investment vehicles, shell corporations, and trusts - and those barely get taxed. They need pricey lawyers and bankers to set up, but it pays off. The NYT article said that the rich treat it like a fun game - like an easter egg hunt to find all the possible loopholes to screw Uncle Sam and the 99%. But I'm sure they don't think of the impact that way - they "deserve" the rewards because they're just more clever/influential than the rest of us. Some of the arrangements are so complex that the underfunded and maligned IRS can't even keep track, and they are supposedly the custodians of the rulebook. But they don't craft the tax policy, they just do their best to interpret and enforce it.

The NYT article failed to state what the total tax losses are to the US due to these practices by the super rich. But I wouldn't be surprised if it numbers in the tens of billions. Maybe that is not a huge # vs. the total US income tax revenue (over a trillion per year), but it could buy a lot of road repairs and school programs. And besides the actual revenue, cracking down should send the message that the rich do not get to play by a different set of rules. They already enjoy vast socioeconomic advantages that enable them to grow their wealth, and maybe some of those advantages should be reduced too, but at least they should not weasel their way out of their patriotic and civic obligations.

Otherwise IMO they are more damaging to the country than all the deranged mass shooters and ISIS-inspired amateur terrorists, because the cheating rich are undermining US principles of equality, justice, and community, which hurts us all. Remember the old saying (paraphrase), an accepted injustice anywhere diminishes justice everywhere.

Friday, December 4, 2015

Zuckerbergs plan to give 99% of their FB shares to charity

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-away-99-percent-211800451.html

We will give 99% of our Facebook shares -- currently about $45 billion -- during our lives to advance this mission. We know this is a small contribution compared to all the resources and talents of those already working on these issues. But we want to do what we can, working alongside many others.
Small contribution - is that like humble bragging? :) All US corporations give about $15-20B/year, so Zuck can spot corporate America for like 3 years.

https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm?bay=content.view&cpid=42#.Vl42q8omz9k

Maybe this is a brilliant strategic move too, because if FB prospers, then that means humanity ostensibly prospers too. So will that make people and gov'ts more friendly to FB's interests? :)

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I'm imagining a time 20 or so years from now when we find that the extremely well funded pet projects of these super rich are found to be counterproductive in those communities.  Similar to food aid to Africa destroying local food economies.  So hopefully he, and others, donate to well established orgs instead of koch style spending.

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Yeah I guess the impacts are yet to be seen. But I think Zuck will be more like Gates than Koch (btw the Gates Fdn. is generally hailed as the best run philanthropic NGO in the world). The mission is sufficiently vague/broad that they could invest in almost anything though. Maybe Zuck is already at the point in his career where he is less concerned with his business empire and more focused on "moonshot" projects and impacting humanity (like Gates circa 2000 and Page now). I don't think selling more FB ads is what fires him up every morning (or if it ever did).

On a side note, I do think that the IRS should abolish all tax incentives for charitable giving (or maybe have a very low cap on deductions like $1,000/pers and $100K per company). That might impact the total amount of giving, but at least it sends the message that rich people can't get "paid" to support their Koch-esque pet project causes that are really political spending. Also, I don't think rich donors should be rewarded for giving millions to some orchestra (whose customer base is almost exclusively rich people) or a university so their name can be on a bldg -> causes like that which have questionable overall social benefits.

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I just heard something on PRI that hasn't made it to the web yet re: Zuck's donation: http://www.pri.org/search/node?search_api_views_fulltext=zuckerberg&sort_by=field_date_published&sort_order=DESC.

As I said in the OP, it's could be a double-edged sword when stock shares are donated to NGOs, or when those orgs invest their endowments in the markets. Of course these groups would prefer to make (tax free) cap gains so they can advance their mission more, but there can be a tension between their mission and how their cap gains are generated.

The Gates Fdn. is very interested in reducing climate change, yet they own over a billion USD worth of stock in the fossil fuel sector (collecting dividends directly from the sale of a polluting product). So do you want to make money, or do you want to not support polluters? I guess that's why some universities divested from gun/fossil fuel/etc. industries in favor of "impact investing" like Gore's fund (see our prior post below, "Al Gore profits from going green"). So there could be a time when the beneficiaries of Zuck's shares may see their mission at odds with FB's business interests. At that point, what do they do? Accept the shares or say no thank you? It might not be a big deal for Zuck, because I'm sure there is a line around the block of orgs who are OK to take his shares (and what comes with it), even if it could send the wrong message or even hurt their stakeholders.
But tech companies always, without fail, do good for the world, right? :)

http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/mark-zuckerberg-and-the-rise-of-philanthrocapitalism?mbid=social_facebook

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His fund called Generation (a tiny $12B under mgmt. but growing) is gaining attention because it only invests in ostensibly green, sustainable, ethical businesses. These businesses also happen to be outperforming their dirtier (in many senses of the word) rivals. But maybe it has less to do with ethics/cleanliness and more to do with "proper capitalism" - firms that preserve and grow value with a long-term horizon in mind (i.e. businesses that Buffet types like), not the quick buck companies at the mercy of the quarterly earnings report (to show short-run gains, they often have to sacrifice long-term value and social/environmental good).

We know that the average fund manager (even hedge funds) barely outperform passive index funds (way to earn their salaries), and most definitely don't sustain abnormal performance over time (regression to the mean). But so far Generation's global equity fund is earning 12% returns vs. 7% for index funds and traditional funds (after mgmt. fees). And Generation is one of the least volatile funds of its class, which investors also love to see. Unfortunately they won't take investors with less than $3MM to contribute. :P



Friday, April 4, 2014

How TV mega "churches" are raking in tax-free profits and DC doesn't seem to care

This is not an old story (remember the Jim and Tammy Baker?), but the scale has grown (money and gov't incompetence). Televangelists now have nearly billion-dollar empires, that are conveniently mostly tax-free as a "religious nonprofit". They also enjoy stronger privacy status (financial and otherwise). Even the huge luxury compounds that these orgs own don't have to pay property tax because they are classified as parsonages (had to wiki this one: a church-owned abode for the clergy to live in).

Since 2009, the IRS can no longer audit churches without the approval of a top official at Treasury (and who can be bothered to sign off for that?). Supposedly an org must meet the IRS' 14-point checklist to be called a church, but few of these "TV ministries" do. Too bad no one is checking but folks like NPR apparently.

And what do these churches do with their huge rakes? Private jets, Bentleys, publishing subsidiaries, and generally Wall St. level compensation for the preachers.  They claim that they route congregation donations to worthy causes, but an investigation of TX-based Daystar Ministries revealed that they only gave 5% of revenue to charity (they claimed it was 30%). In comparison the secular Red Cross is >90% and Catholic Charities USA is 75%. But hey, Daystar sponsored a Christian NASCAR team to the tune of $600K. And remember that the congregation is getting tax breaks as well.

The Senate Finance Cmte. led by C Grassley (R) investigated 6 mega-churches recently. They found evidence of abuse, but didn't take action and more or less dropped the issue (church leaders were threatening to sue over religious persecution). They recommended "self regulation" and Grassley hopes that the problem will "cure itself". I guess there is a lot of gov't paranoia/precedent about interfering in religious matters. Maybe DC has no right to decide what a preacher gets paid, but if the gov't can legally make us fight in a war, spy on us, seize our property, and sentence us to death, I think they can revisit whether they need to at least tax and monitor religious orgs a little more (even tightening up how they define them would make a big impact).

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Bill Maher on The Great Gatsby and the modern wealth gap

America's bizarre fetish for romanticizing the leisure-class, mega-rich, Guilded Age types like the Buchanans depicted in Gatsby is especially peculiar today considering what we have (or haven't) learned from the Great Recession, as well as recent the populist backlash against US plutocrats.

The sad irony is the rich would be better off with less income disparity and a more flourishing middle class. Clearly when basic needs are more securely met, people feel more comfortable to consume, which benefits most of the economy and trickles up to the wealthy. Well, the rich got around that issue by expanding credit (pay day loans, adjustable rates, even tax refund loans).

The rich complain that they already pay the lion's share of the nation's taxes. While that is numerically true, maybe we can reframe the issue. When employers and other the powers that be give people quality wages and benefits, they will be healthier and less of a burden on health services. When education is more democratic and affordable, people will make better economic choices and become more productive, which will increase GDP, lower demand for public services, and reduce the "tax burden" on the rich. When we don't fight wars or adopt bad taxation and trade practices just to give special interests more profits, then that also reduces the need for taxes. So if the rich are tired of paying so much tax (even though marginal rates are much lower today than the 1960's), then reduce the wealth gap and make the market more free and democratic.

And when workers are not stressed out and distraught over neighborhood crime and horrible commutes (caused by defunding public services/infrastructure to support tax breaks), rising health care, real estate, and education costs (driven by the irrationally high willingness to pay by those who can afford it), uncertain retirement (brought on by the cutting of pensions, the Fed's low rates pushing people to equities, and market volatility due to risky speculation, manipulation, and fraud), and the omnipresent threat of layoffs/outsourcing/downsizing, then they are actually able to concentrate on their jobs and become more creative, productive, and valuable to the company and its stakeholders. When employers treat their staffs well, they are less likely to be a workplace cancer, a slacker, a defector to the competition, or new competition (launching their own venture). It's strange that the rich, who love to congratulate themselves for being so clever and superior, can't grasp this simple concept.

But here is the circular problem: political corruption allows some companies to enjoy economic advantages. They out-compete all the mom & pop shops without the Washington connections (yes I know companies succeed on their own merit too, but far too many cheated to get to the top and secure their standing). Other firms witness this "recipe for success" and follow suit, because now it's too risky to try to win the old-fashioned way. This Darwinism leads to the "survivors" of the dog-eat-dog market often being the biggest jerks. So now we have fewer and nastier employment choices, and the % of Americans working for public companies is at an all-time high. Employers know they have the leverage, so they cut benefits and make the workers more dependent on investment income (for the minority who can even afford to invest). More and more, our survival is tied to the stock price of our employer and our chosen securities. So for the few shareholders who actually vote, they want boards and execs who are the shrewdest SOBs around - to make the stock appreciate. And for passive shareholders, they are just happy when the price goes up, and they don't want to know how. So public companies are making our lives hell, yet they are also our only potential salvation from hell, so we make a Faustian bargain with them. It is paradoxically in our economic best interests to support those who harm us. 

When people are not desperate, they are less likely to steal or kill or revolt (yes, it has come to that). As Maher said, you can only squeeze people so far before they push back (especially when the squeezers are a tiny minority). It's not as bad as the starving peasants in monarchic France or Russia, but there will be a point when the masses won't take it anymore (see the Arab Spring, which started as an economic uprising). Or look at the angry youth and public workers in much of Europe now. When that stuff happens, it's no good for the rich either (unless you are like the Shah and can loot Iran before you flee to posh exile - not trying to give Lloyd Blankfein any ideas). So wouldn't they rather share a little more of the pie in order to preserve the good thing they have going? They say that love knows no bounds, but really selfishness and greed (even to the point of self-destruction) is America's most abundant resource. Well, one could argue that greed is a twisted form of love - just loving the wrong things.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

David Stockman on the debt, Fed, etc.

I don't know much about Stockman's history, but he was Regan's budget director so that is a hit to credibility. And then when he had a "falling out" with Ronnie over tax cuts and spending, he went to Wall Street (whom he blames a lot for the Great Recession in his recent book). So that is strike two. But he did become disenchanted with Wall Street, then sobered up, and is trying to be Paul Revere about our political and economic woes.

We have heard most of his arguments before, but he approaches it as a conservative who is trying to save "real" capitalism from the forces of corruption.

Some points that I found especially interesting:

-Neither Obama or the GOP dare to challenge the military industrial complex, even with all the discussion about debt worries. Maybe the sequester was the best thing for us on the military end (but not on the public services and investments side). So many Americans are now dependent and suckling on the teat of defense (quite a mental image!), defense is "too big to fail" and they claim that any cuts will cause us to slide back into recession. And many politicians are OK with that because their re-elections hinge on defense jobs and contracts in their states. And we get basically zero ROI on most defense spending - they are just cash outlays that go poof. I guess the same can be said about food stamps, but that program is a grain of sand compared to defense. I am all for spending on infrastructure and *smart* research that will actually give us positive ROI.

-The Fed's monetary policies from Greenspan to today have been disastrous. The super-low interest rates did not ease borrowing or promote growth, but only allowed Wall Street to lever up and make more profits during bubble cycles. And for the retirees and others who "did it right" and saved responsibly all their lives - their fixed income reserves are producing nearly zero returns to live off of now.

-Stockman thinks that the Social Security Trust Fund is raided and just a confetti IOU. I have heard various assessments, so I am not sure what to believe - Is Social Security OK? One thing is clear - wealthy retirees should not be getting SS benefits, even if they paid a lot into the system for decades. It makes no sense to burden younger, productive, debt-laden working people with large payroll taxes to subsidize older, richer, secure folks who don't need more security. But you have the AARP out there, so that's that.


Clearly our financial and monetary woes are not a Democrat or Republican problem. They are an American problem (to borrow an Obam-ism). Both parties are now in love with irrational tax cuts and loopholes as the best way to bribe voters (especially rich voters). Both parties think that we need to spend as much on defense as the Pentagon asks for (like asking your kid the open ended question "What do you want for Xmas?" and being surprised when they say "Unicorn!!"), even though our military is built to fight threats that do no exist. Also, a moral hazard associated with a bloated military is the fact that we may feel more inclined to use it because we paid for it. If we had a scaled-down military on par with Scandinavia and such, then it would have been obvious that we couldn't occupy Afghanistan or Iraq. In that case, we would have devised more feasible, economical solutions to fight terrorism. And probably they would have been just as effective if not more so.

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I think Stockman is basically wrong. If you're concerned about the long-term health of the nation, what you need to be worried about is getting us out of this recession and repairing the damage done. There was a recent paper looking at the job health of the long-term unemployed, and the basic answer is that being out of work for 6+ months doesn't just mean you lose that time. It impacts you essentially for the rest of your career. There's an understandable stigma about hiring people who've been out of work for long periods, which makes it harder to get back into the workforce, when you come back it's at a lower role, etc. This is a big deal for recent college grads as well: young people who graduated in the last 3-5 years have been screwed, big-time, by our economy, and may never get back on track. This idea that reducing the deficit is "for the benefit of young people" is shenanigans.

On Social Security …

Legally, the Social Security Trust Fund is a separate organization from the federal government. It has its own dedicated revenue (payroll tax) and expenses. For a long time it ran a surplus, bringing in more revenue than it paid out. It invested that surplus prudently, in the world's safest and most liquid asset class: US Treasury Bonds. Anyone who calls a US Treasury Bond an IOU, like we're talking about a 10-year old's lemonade stand borrowing money for sugar, is deeply misinformed or trying to scam you. These are the highest-quality assets in the world.

Now, it's possible that the US government could choose to default on those bonds, causing Social Security to lose its trust fund. But a default on US Treasuries would be catastrophic. The debt ceiling threat was over a short-term, technical default, with every understanding that the debt would eventually be paid, and even that roiled financial markets. A decision to default on the US debt would, with very little hyperbole, end the world financial system. Every bank, hedge fund, money market fund, etc, would be insolvent.

Moreover, the folks who talk about Treasuries as IOUs describe this as being specific to Social Security, so now you're talking about a selective default on just the debt held by the Social Security Trust Fund. That is, the government (I think it's under Sec-Treasury, so executive branch) would have to decide to default only on debt to US seniors, while continuing to pay the Treasuries owned by China, by investment banks, etc. Can you imagine the political fallout, from deciding to stiff just seniors? That President's political party would likely become a swear word (if seniors swore).

Social Security has money to pay all projected benefits through 2037, at which point the oldest of the boomers would be 92. Beyond that, it's projected to be able to pay 80% of projected benefits through the end of the CBO's 75 year scoring window (nevermind that a 75 year economic projection is usually shenanigans - imagine someone in 1938 projecting US revenue in 2013). By law it cannot impact the US debt when it runs out of money. Now, Congress could decide to make up the shortfall out of general spending, but that's a choice they'd have to make (and political coalition they'd have to build).

Social Security is fine. If you want to talk about long-term US government debt problems, it's basically a story of rising healthcare costs.

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Yeah I find that narrative more believable and realistic than what the typical conservatives are claiming. As you said, there is no political or legal way that the US gov't could default just on Treasuries held by SS and keep its commitments to the other holders. That is good to know that SS is independent of the debt.

But I think Stockman's other point was regarding working people and the payroll tax that funds SS. It is the largest single tax item the typical young-to-mid career American has to pay, and does reduce purchasing power and ability to save/invest. Personally, I don't think that anyone with a household net worth of like >$500K (excluding primary residence and trusts) at age 65 should get any SS benefits unless they encounter severe financial distress later. They paid into the system, but now others need it more and they will probably be fine. Call it patriotic sacrifice. That way the "truly poor" seniors can get increased benefits (SS has fallen behind on COLA adjustments, and most seniors can't live "securely" on $1,100/month minus garnishing for Medicare premiums). The wealthy seniors will be OK, the poorer seniors will be more secure (lowering the burden of care on their progeny too), and the working people will have lower payroll taxes - which should stimulate growth. 

Also agreed that pretty much the entire conservative agenda isn't designed to help future generations and often screws them, so I doubt their debt ideas are so forward thinking. 

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The problem with means testing is that it doesn't really save much money, unless you set the threshold very low. SS benefits cap out pretty quick, so cutting off benefits for the top 1% only saves you 1-1.5% of the benefits.

The "is it Boomers" question is actually pretty interesting. It's always fun asking people why we're just talking about SS running out of money now, when the Baby Boom would have been obvious to anyone in a maternity ward starting about 1946 (the standard answer is "government can't get anything done"). But actually back in the 80s we solved the SS-demographic problem. Reagan convened a blue-ribbon council with a big complicated name, which most people knew as the Greenspan Commission after its head (before his Fed days). They were supposed to figure out how to make SS handle the baby boom demographic shift, they recommended a payroll tax increase, their recommendations were accepted, and the problem was solved. Say what you will about Greenspan, but the dude can do math.

So why do we have this problem? The liberal answer is that it has to do with income inequality. Through the 1970s, GDP growth was broadly shared; post-80s most of the growth happened at the top of the income spectrum. This impacts SS because it means that in Greenspan's projections, GDP growth would occur for people below the SS payroll tax cap, and get taxed. In fact, the additional income happened above the cap, so it didn't get taxed. I don't know what the conservative explanation is.

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Pardon my means testing ignorance. LOL the conservative explanation is "blame the liberals and takers". In a sense they are right, but they have the wrong takers. 

“When [Social Security] was developed, 50 percent of seniors lived in poverty. Today, poverty among seniors is too high, but that number is ten percent. Social Security has done exactly what it was designed to do!” - Bernie Sanders

If it's the case that only 10% of seniors are poor these days, then means testing should save a lot more, right?

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2011/08/25/304387/bernie-sanders-introduces-bill-to-lift-the-payroll-tax-cap-ensuring-full-social-security-funding-for-nearly-75-years/?mobile=nc

As you said, raise or do away with the cap to get the system more in line with Greenspan's projections. In 2012, 4.2% of a worker's first $110K of wages went to FICA taxes. Let's say the avg. salary of the top 5% of workers is $250K (that may not be very accurate, but the 95th percentile of wages was $100K in 2006) and the US labor force is 150M. At a 4.2% payroll tax rate and a $110K cap, we are missing out on $44.1B per year. Total SS+Medicare revenue to the gov't was $800B in 2011. Subtracting Medicare and employer contributions, the employee portion of SS revenue is about $268B (SS is about 2/3 of the $800B, and employer-employee split is about 50/50). So lifting the wage cap would make SS employee revenue increase 16%.

The tax is very unprogressive. I would rather have employers and employees contribute only 1 or 2% of their first $40K of wages towards SS, and then the % grows above that like income taxes. 4% for $40-100K, 10% from $100-200K, 20% above that. Not that harsh IMO, but of course it is not going to happen. A worker pays AT MOST $7K to SS in a year. That is ludicrous for people making $200K+. The wage cap has gone up about 3-5% yearly (it was static during the recession), yet income for the top 1% have growth a lot more than 3-5% per annum. It doesn't make sense to economically burden the most productive members of society to subsidize the elderly who often have higher net worth. If you let the younger generations prosper, they won't need to depend on SS as much in the future. But as J said, the much bigger problem is Medicare. I also would advocate a progressive Medicare tax and much reduced benefits for seniors in higher wealth brackets (Obama is proposing this I think, but I'm sure it's meager).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_Wage_Base
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/michael-shedlock/top-one-percent-received-income-gains-during-recovery
http://www.heritage.org/federalbudget/federal-revenue-sources (never thought I'd reference these guys!)
http://www.ehow.com/how_4736068_calculate-payroll-taxes.html

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

How the Greek elites contributed to the crisis

More on Greek socioeconomic problems: http://www.theworld.org/2011/11/the-oligarchs-of-greece/

Sadly, it's a familiar story. The most powerful 30 or so families in Greece have drastically augmented their wealth in the last couple decades. Due to deregulation and whatnot, they bought up most of the nation's mass media in order to influence the mainstream population into supporting their agenda. In addition, they of course bought politicians, especially from Papandreou's opposition: the more conservative New Democracy party. Papandreou's PASOK socialist party is also infiltrated with pro-rich stooges, who along with the conservatives have fought Papandreou's tax reform efforts to curtail evasion by the rich (twisting the issue as Papandreou wanting to put the squeeze on all Greeks). And as Papandreou is now trying to do right for the country and not just serving the oligarchs or EU powers, he will soon be out of a job and probably replaced by a company man. 

As with the US deficit debate, a Greek solution has to include some cuts and some new revenues. In both nations, the rich are waging a propaganda war to block tax reform, claiming the usual nonsense that it will "kill jobs and hurt the hard-working small business owner," when really they're just looking after their own finances at the expense of the 99%. But if the rich in Greece paid their fair share, LITERALLY they would not have a fiscal crisis in the long term. Though as we've discussed, it's a structural problem and they've dug such a hole for themselves now that it's probably too late to avoid default, even if evasion was magically eradicated.

Bottom line, the riots aren't the problem, and "bloated public sector pay & services" isn't either. They are red herrings of the underlying breakdown in the social contract between citizens and government. Some say you can't blame the rich for all our problems, but in Greece's case it's fairly accurate. If the rich believed in good government, they have to power to put the people in place to make it happen. But they prosper from dysfunction, injustice, and lack of accountability, so that's what the people get. The Greek case should be a major warning to Americans, but unfortunately many Americans can't locate Greece on a map (I admit that I've been following only recently). We keep hearing from US leaders and pundits that "we're not Greece," implying that we exhibit some of their problems but we're inherently better able to solve them, because we're Americans. I'm not so sure anymore. It most certainly is class warfare there and here, except it's the rich who have declared war on the rest, and they're winning and pressing their advantage. Knowing this, who's crazier: the folks rioting in the streets, or those who stay home and just accept it?

Friday, December 10, 2010

More on taxes and unemployment

Well, the WSJ is totally correct that extending unemployment will keep official unemployment higher than cutting it, but for a far more cynical reason.  We use U3 unemployment as the measure of official unemployment, and to qualify as unemployed under U3 a person has to be actively searching for a job.  There are plenty of folks who are only nominally looking for jobs: doing it because it's a requirement to collect the unemployment benefits.  If you cut the unemployment benefits, they'll no longer have a reason to search for a job, and they'll stop.  As soon as they cease looking for employment they cease to be counted in U3 unemployment.  Voila, lower official unemployment!
The fact that we use U3 unemployment as the measure of official unemployment fairly dramatically understates the actual labor slack in the economy.  Looking at a measure like U6 (which is U3 unemployment plus people who've stopped seeking work for economic reasons, people who would like a job but haven't looked recently, and people who are working part-time for economic reasons but want to work full-time), that measure of unemployment is up around 17%.  And the spread has increased.  3 years ago U3 was 4.7% and U6 was 8.5%.  Today it's 9.8% and 17.0%.  It's a lot easier to tell people they should care about austerity and so forth when you can claim unemployment is 9.8% than if you have to acknowledge it's at 17%.

Also, a pretty good graph of the effect of different kinds of economic stimulus, from Moody's a couple years ago when they were looking at this stuff the first time around: http://motherjones.com/files/legacy/news/feature/2009/01/bang-for-the-buck.jpg
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Very true, thanks J. Yeah U3 is a pretty limited metric and doesn't capture real labor market conditions. I don't know why more economists and politicians don't cite the U6 data - that should shock anyone that almost 1 out of 5 able-bodied people can't find work or can't find enough work. That's about 25.5M people, and many more if you include dependents. That is a critical mass for voting leverage. Well, the unemployment rate among white collar workers is quite a bit lower, and if they and the retired are doing most of the voting, well then we know what kind of economic policies we'll get.

"Managers and college grads still are more likely to be working than Americans overall. The unadjusted unemployment rate hit 8.5% in January, compared with 4.1% for management and professional workers and 3.8% for college graduates." (I'm assuming these %s are based on U3 from 2009).

http://www.jsonline.com/business/39650377.html

Haha, so all the tax cuts that the GOP loves (dividends/cap gains, Bush cuts, corporate cuts) deliver the least bang for buck, while all the spending they want to cut (food stamps, unemployment) are the best. When will America wake up to this? Good job to the GOP governors who refused stimulus money for infrastructure projects and such (and often those red states are the ones with the weakest economies and most crumbling infrastructure, like Gov. Jindal's Louisiana). Yeah it's totally ridiculous that companies get to report accelerated depreciation to the IRS but use more conservative depreciation measures for SEC filings. So they pay less tax and appear more profitable to shareholders?

http://www.npr.org/2010/12/09/131940665/Sen-Alexander-Tax-Deal-Will-Create-Jobs

NPR was interviewing #3 GOP Senator Alexander yesterday (who sits on the Appropriations, Budget, Health/Labor Cmtes. so he should understand this stuff) about the tax cut deal, and the host kept prodding him to explain why it's justified that high earners get a tax cut, and in fact a disproportionately expensive cut vs. lower earners (1/4 of the amount goes to the richest 1% of Americans). Instead of an intelligent response, he parroted the cliche "We are trying to create jobs and you don't raise taxes on anyone during a recession." Then why did they oppose Obama's stimuli, which included tax breaks for businesses that hire new workers? Isn't that better than giving every rich person money even if they don't preserve/create a single job?

He also stressed that this was not a tax cut, since the taxes are currently low but are scheduled to increase. So letting the cuts expire would actually be a tax hike (I guess if the Dems let the cuts expire, the GOP plans to blast them for "raising taxes"). But that is ridiculous logic. It was a temporary tax holiday all along (since Bush and the GOP in 2000 didn't have the votes to make it permanent); the regular tax rate is the higher one. That's like me taking a vacation from work, and when I return, I complain to my boss that he's increasing my hours! I guess Alexander realized that he couldn't give a good answer to the question, so might as well kill the conversation with some misdirection. He is a lawyer after all.

It's just sad to see Obama and Summers defending this tax cut BS so fervently, and to their fellow Dems to boot. I don't really blame Obama for his actions considering the circumstances, but stop trying to polish a turd. They are actually saying that if we extend the tax cuts, we'll certainly avoid a double-dip recession. I guess the GOP isn't the only party engaged in fear-mongering.

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I think the attached chart pretty much lays out the answer to your question as to why there's such intense pressure to ditch the unemployment insurance and extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. (as you might imagine, education and income are pretty highly correlated)

I was just reading a paper the other day about how much more pro-poor the US would be if elections were held on the weekends (most poor people can't get off time to go vote on weekdays like high-income people can). It's no surprise that the most conservative states often have the shortest voting hours and the most onerous voting registration requirements.

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Thx, A. I wonder why community organizers don't try to mobilize the urban poor more during elections. Maybe since most cities vote liberal anyway, and minorities/lower income folks are more likely to be Dems, less of a need? I know there were allegations of people getting packed into buses from the ghetto and whisked to the polling stations, but I'm not sure if it was just propaganda, and also not sure if there's anything wrong with that.

As you said, our voting system is the most inaccessible of all modern, developed democracies. In France I believe the window to vote is several days if not weeks, India too (due to people living in remote areas maybe). In other nations voting occurs on weekends or national holidays. There is absolutely no damn reason to have an election on a work day, especially when the working poor can't get paid time off and may work 12 hours a day over multiple jobs. Plus in other nations there isn't so much red tape for registering. In many cases a voter can "register" (or whatever equivalent) on election day. Hell, even in Iraq the polls stay open Fri-Sun. But all those scenes of Americans waiting in lines all day to vote in inner-city areas is just unacceptable. Voting shouldn't be such a sacrifice, unless the system is designed to prevent those people from participating. Making voting nearly impossible for the lower class is one thing, but how do we control the influence of the rich in politics? The 1st Amend. seems to protect an individual, org, or corporation's "right" to basically contribute limitless cash to political causes, and the Supreme Court seemed to affirm that last year.

In Australia and Belgium (among others), voting is mandatory with small fines for absentees. Maybe that wouldn't fly here, but I know Arizona passed a bill to include a cash lottery as incentive to get people to the polls. We'll see how effective it will be. I wonder if even mail-in or online/phone voting would help the poor that much (Wikipedia says internet voting is already in place in the UK, France, and Switzerland, but I haven't been following that). Oregon, which has a fully mail-in voting system, is slightly better than the US average for turnout (US avg. for 2008 pres. election was 62%, OR was 67%).

http://www.slate.com/id/2108832/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout#International_differences
http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/us/17voter.html?ex=1310788800&en=9626060428eeb1ed&ei=5088

Thursday, December 9, 2010

More on the tax compromise

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20101209/ts_yblog_thelookout/jobless-benefits-cut-unemployment-rate-fed-economist-confirms

More data to refute the GOP's BS economic beliefs. Of course the GOP and conservative WSJ/Bloomberg Businessweek used Fed data to calculate that if Obama's request to extend unemployment benefits goes through, it will result in 0.4-0.8% higher unemployment during the duration of coverage vs. if the benefits expired. We know that "handouts" are disincentives to find work. But there is another side of the coin. The Fed study's authors state that a "second stimulus" is created due to unemployment benefits, but I guess the sophisticated business press overlooked it. The recipients are more likely to stay afloat (thereby averting some of the social costs of unemployment), and they are very likely to spend most or all of their benefits to survive, which injects more cash into the economy, which in turns spurs investment, hiring, growth, and deficit reduction (all the things that the GOP claims their policies promote). The Fed estimates that some 700,000 new jobs can be created from the benefits being spent. Spending by people on unemployment will also trickle to small business owners who are not eligible for unemployment insurance, and therefore depend on revenues to keep their operations going, so it's fairly egalitarian. Unemployment assistance is as big of a win-win as you can find these days, yet of course that is precisely what the GOP opposes and wants to cut. Why anyone who earns less than $150K/year and isn't an extremist Christian would support the GOP these days is beyond me. I'm not saying we all should be Dems, but at least quit the party that doesn't give a shit about you and all the hard-working, honest folks who are getting crushed by economic forces out of their control.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2010/12/tax_cuts

Also, those on unemployment benefits will probably spend all of their assistance because it is only a fraction of their former salaries, and they may have already been living month-to-month even while fully employed. Changing gears a bit, the poor spend all of their tax credits, and then some (according to this Economist piece), because they often don't own real estate and have less incentive/ability to save. Remember in 2008 how Dubya gave a $300 stimulus check to each taxpayer, regardless of income? The poor (earning <$32K) increased their spending by $384 on average, and the rich (earning >$75K, though in parts of America $75K is hardly rich) increased by only $231. So that means the economy gets more help from aid to the poor than to the rich. And the rich will get theirs anyway, since extra spending by the poor will improve earnings, dividends, and stock values for the consumer firms that the rich own/invest in. The rich may not even notice the extra bit in their paychecks, and it's such a small fraction of their disposable income anyway, so they just pocket it or let it earn an investment return. Ironically, the middle earners (between the 2 groups) spent even less of the stimulus. The author hypothesizes that this is due to many middle class Americans having mortgages and credit card debt that they would rather help pay off than spend on new purchases (I think there were news reports on this at the time). But still, that is economically sound because it reduces their risk of foreclosure, dings to their credit rating, and wasted money on exorbitant interest rates. We get the least bang for our buck by helping the rich, which is pretty much obvious to everyone but 41 senators it seems.

I see now that the Dems are revolting against Obama's tax compromise and are crafting new legislation in response. I understand some of the anger against Obama, but the real culprit is the abuse of the filibuster. I know they don't have the votes for filibuster reform either (and the Dems may not want to take that weapon off the table, because they are bound to be the Senate minority many more times in the future), but at least point the finger at the right culprit.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

We don't negotiate with terrorists, unless they're GOP senators

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/06/opinion/06krugman.html?_r=4&ref=opinion
http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201012070900

I'm sure you've heard the news about the Obama Bush tax cut compromise deal. A neutral reporter on NPR commented on the deal saying that it seems the Republicans did not want to extend tax cuts to anyone until the rich got theirs. Obama likened it to holding the nation hostage. In his national press conference, Obama said that government shouldn't negotiate with hostage takers, but the game changes when the hostage (low to middle class America) is in imminent danger. Obama didn't want to let middle class tax cuts and unemployment benefits expire, so he acquiesced to the GOP and is urging his party to endorse the GOP plan to extend all the Bush tax cuts, even for above-$250,000-per-year earners (about 2% of Americans). The situation is further complicated by the GOP senators' threats to kill all legislation in the lame duck session until the tax cuts are extended, because they know the Dems are desperate to get things passed in December before they lose the House. It's possible that Obama agreed to the tax deal because the GOP will make concessions in other areas, but I'm not holding my breath. All this mess in Washington makes Afghanistan look like an easy problem.

But really, what is an inexperienced pragmatist who just took a political drubbing to do? We know that the Dems currently in power can appear politically clueless to the public, and the party mostly just avoids or bungles up the message war. We know that Washington today is not like the times of LBJ when a strong leader could kick some butt behind closed doors to keep the flock in line. And we know Obama is not that type of leader anyway, even if it would work. But maybe campaign concerns about his lack of executive experience and deferential leadership style were not unfounded. From the progressive perspective, Obama has whiffed on Afghanistan, Gitmo, health care, Wall Street reform, immigration, and Don't Ask Don't Tell. He's also failed to maintain the dominant status of his party in Washington. Heck, he froze pay for many already underpaid federal employees to cut spending, yet agreed to let the rich keep more of their money? What is this guy doing? Of course all of that wasn't 100% his fault, but it occurred under his watch, and he hasn't been the inspirational leader to the left that he was in 2008. Plus all the say-this-do-that is confusing and frustrating voters: Obama dissed Wall Street excess but refused to cap CEO pay, promoted the public option then said it's wasn't critical, etc. The left has plenty of reason to be disappointed with Obama and the party. He already lost the independents according to the recent election, and this may be the last straw for disgruntled liberal voters (there's even talk of Obama having a Dem primary challenge in 2012, but that's unlikely since it would basically signal a surrender to the GOP). Really, what was he to do on the tax cuts?

His advisers told him that letting the middle class cuts expire would be politically risky, and the GOP would paint it as Obama "raising taxes" in a recession. He's already paranoid after the mid-terms of being seen as a tax-and-spend guy. And maybe he does really care about the struggling families who may depend on the extra bucks in their pockets from these programs. But does he think that moderates and independents will like him again because he cut their taxes a few Benjamins? As Krugman's article described, a CBO study concluded that unemployment would rise only 0.1-0.3% if Obama let ALL the tax cuts expire. The poor have the least to lose from Bush tax cuts expiring, and they have many other more serious financial troubles to worry about. It's still rolling the dice for thousands of people in this already troubled labor market, but maybe it's better than caving to "terrorists" and setting a dangerous precedent. We don't negotiate with terrorists because that sends the message that terrorism works and it's okay to use abominable methods to get what you want. The other side will play ball. Next year with Speaker Boehner and the gang of filibuster-happy GOP senators (plus plenty of easily-influenced noob Tea Party legislators), what's to prevent them from threatening Obama again? Clinton caved under Gingrich's government shutdown and transferred the burden of welfare from DC to the states (any wonder many states are in the red now?), and that was during a good economy. What will Obama do when the GOP wants to slash welfare and other programs further in 2011, because they're supposedly such fiscally responsible folks? Yes I know welfare and unemployment benefits are economically problematic because they create a disincentive to find new work, but cutting people off overnight is not the way to fix things either.

Krugman argued that Obama should call the GOP bluff and not budge on the tax cuts. I know the Congressional Dems were working on a new bill to extend the cuts only for the middle class, so he should have dared the GOP to block it (maybe they did already?). And why not fight fire with fire? If they are threatening to block everything, Reid should fire back that the Dems aren't going to include the GOP in any future negotiations, and Obama will veto all GOP-sponsored bills. Does a parent indulge her child's tantrum, or shame and discipline him instead? Bush circumvented Congress with record use of executive orders and other devices - why can't Obama do the same? Maybe he should wake up and not "stay the course"; coalition and consensus building is over. Force and push things through now because the nation needs it. His re-election is already in jeopardy, so what more is there to lose? Bottom line, don't let the GOP get away with this conduct. It's bad for Obama, his party, and the future of America. Or if this is how the game is going to be played, there's no reason the GOP should have exclusive right to misbehave. Fire right back and cut off programs close to the GOP's frozen hearts (defense projects, aid to Israel, corporate subsidies, etc.). Stop living in the dream world where politics are civil and cooperation is possible.

Maybe in the end this will be a good thing for the Dems (hear me out). Now they've taken away the GOP's deficit card for the near future. The GOP will look like fools if they lambaste the Dems on the (somewhat unavoidable in the short term) ballooning deficit when they had a chance to cut it by $900B, and instead decided to help the wealthy. But it's up to the press and public to call them out on it, and we probably won't. Plus it's not like the rich in the US are getting tax shafted versus other G8 nations. Heck, even the richest of the rich, Buffet and Gates, are telling DC to tax the rich more (http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/billionaires-buffett-gates-tax-us/story?id=12259003&tqkw=&tqshow=TW)! The top tax rate in European democracies is ~42%, which is about what the rich in America are paying now when you include local/state taxes. But big differences: in Europe, taxes fund much better social programs and it's much harder to lose your job, so they need less money in their pockets for financial security. And in the US, our tax code is much more complex and corrupt, so the rich pay a much lower effective rate due to a laughable 15% rate on capital gains/dividends, plus all their crazy deductions and subsidies (remember the yacht credit that was recently eliminated? http://www.seattlepi.com/local/198998_boats10.html). And I believe the rich in the US earn more per capita than the rich in the rest of the G8 anyway.

We discussed the wealth gap a lot this year, and we've already debunked the Bush rationale that more money in the rich's pockets trickles down to help the whole economy (even Dubya's father called the justification of the rich tax cuts "voodoo economics"). So Obama, go ahead and tax the rich more, even if they sick their GOP minions on us as punishment. Keep crafting bills in Congress designed to fight the recession and help working people, and dare the GOP to block them every time. If (when) they do, go around the TV news circuit and blast them for it. Take out full-page ads and hit the campaign trail if you need to. Try to cut the debt by restricting earmarks, tax loopholes, and pet projects, and dare the GOP to oppose you. At least act like you're giving an effort. They might as well try it, because nothing good awaits them on their current trajectory.

Friday, October 1, 2010

Where do our taxes go?

The left leaning Third Way think tank published an itemized breakdown of where a typical federal taxpayer's revenues go. The median US income was $34,140 in 2009, which required $5,400 in income tax (include FICA payroll tax). Of that amount, here is the tax breakdown according to their calc's:


Item Tax % of total
Soc Sec $1,041.00 19.278
Medicare $626.00 11.593
Medicaid $385.00 7.130
Debt interest $287.00 5.315
Iraq/Afghanistan $229.00 4.241
Military Personnel $193.00 3.574
Vet Benefits $75.00 1.389
Fed Highways $64.00 1.185
NIH $47.00 0.870
Foreign Aid $46.00 0.852
K-12 Low Income Student Aid $38.00 0.704
Retired Military $33.00 0.611
Pell Grants $30.00 0.556
NASA $28.00 0.519
IRS $18.00 0.333
EPA $12.00 0.222
FBI $11.00 0.204
Head Start $11.00 0.204
Pub Housing $11.00 0.204
Nat Parks $4.00 0.074
DEA $3.00 0.056
Amtrak $2.00 0.037
Smithsonian $1.00 0.019
Arts Funding $0.20 0.004
Compensation for Congress $0.20 0.004

Of course this list is not comprehensive, as the sum of all items adds up to $3,200 or 59% of total, so I guess the rest of our taxes went to thousands of other smaller programs and maybe the salaries of other federal workers. I just find it disturbing that interest on our deficit, NASA, and Amtrak consume so much of our taxes versus other needs. I know the military is expensive, and we spend more than most of the G20 combined. And for those critics who say we dispense too much foreign aid, I think 0.9% is nothing for the richest nation in history. Compare that to the 31% we spend to support the 39M or so elderly Americans today. 13% of our population is consuming 31% of our revenues, and many of those retired are plenty well off financially.

Speaking of being well off, maybe you have heard of this U of Chicago law professor (Todd Henderson) who blogged about how hard his life is even though his household makes over $250k/year (his wife is an oncologist). He's worried about Obama raising taxes on him, and claims that he's not "rich". Obviously his narrow mindedness has offended the blogosphere and media, when the median US household income is $45k and 10% of willing workers can't land a job. Plus Henderson's complaints don't hold water: he lives in a pricey neighborhood, works easy hours, sends his kids to fancy private schools, contributes heavily to his 401(k), and has a landscaper and nanny. I'm sure he spends on frivolous consumer goods and services too. So if he feels so "pinched for cash", how about eliminate some of those clearly non-essential expenses and live like a regular guy? Or just become a corporate lawyer to triple your pay but never see your family. He made spending choices to make life easier and more comfortable, but there's no free lunch. He is not entitled to all those luxuries. If you want more money, you have to spend less or work harder. But don't complain about getting reasonably taxed for being part of the richest 3% of households in America. Today, the rich still get to keep 75% of their income after taxes. That's hardly a shake-down.

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/110876/why-the-rich-dont-feel-rich

“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” - Warren Buffet

"In order to engage in warfare, one side has to fight back. There is no class warfare in the U.S. It ended a long time ago through surrender." - Noam Chomsky

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Obama considering McCain health care reform


I am not qualified to evaluate the utility of taxing employer-provided health benefits, but what I do know is that it sucks to slam your campaign opponent for advocating a certain idea, then after you've won, find yourself compelled by circumstance to consider adopting that very proposal. But I guess when Congress is unreceptive to curbing tax deductions for the rich to pay for expanded health care, you have to consider even a revenue generation plan that is "so radical, so out of touch with what you're facing, and so out of line with our basic values" (BO, speech in Virginia, 10/08).

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/15/us/politics/15health.html?_r=2&hp
Administration Is Open to Taxing Health Benefits
By JACKIE CALMES and ROBERT PEAR
Published: March 14, 2009

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is signaling to Congress that the president could support taxing some employee health benefits, as several influential lawmakers and many economists favor, to help pay for overhauling the health care system.

The proposal is politically problematic for President Obama, however, since it is similar to one he denounced in the presidential campaign as “the largest middle-class tax increase in history.” Most Americans with insurance get it from their employers, and taxing workers for the benefit is opposed by union leaders and some businesses.

In television advertisements last fall, Mr. Obama criticized his Republican rival for the presidency, Senator John McCain of Arizona, for proposing to tax all employer-provided health benefits. The benefits have long been tax-free, regardless of how generous they are or how much an employee earns. The advertisements did not point out that Mr. McCain, in exchange, wanted to give all families a tax credit to subsidize the purchase of coverage.

At the time, even some Obama supporters said privately that he might come to regret his position if he won the election; in effect, they said, he was potentially giving up an important option to help finance his ambitious health care agenda to reduce medical costs and to expand coverage to the 46 million uninsured Americans. Now that Mr. Obama has begun the health debate, several advisers say that while he will not propose changing the tax-free status of employee health benefits, neither will he oppose it if Congress does so.

At a recent Congressional hearing, Senator Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat whose own health plan would make benefits taxable, asked Peter R. Orszag, the president’s budget director, about the issue. Mr. Orszag replied that it “most firmly should remain on the table.”

Mr. Orszag, an economist who has served as director of the Congressional Budget Office, has written favorably of taxing some employer-provided health benefits and using the revenue savings for other health-related incentives. So has another Obama adviser, Jason Furman, the deputy director of the White House National Economic Council.

They, like other proponents, cite evidence that tax-free benefits encourage what Mr. McCain called “gold-plated” policies, resulting in inefficient and costly demands for health care and pressure on employers to hold down workers’ pay as insurance expenses rise. And, they say, the policy discriminates against those — many of whom are low-income workers — who do not have employer-provided coverage.

When Senator Max Baucus, Democrat of Montana, advocated taxing benefits at a recent hearing of the Finance Committee, which he leads, Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner assured him that the administration was open to all ideas from Congress. Mr. Geithner did, however, allude to the position that Mr. Obama had taken as a candidate.

The administration’s receptivity to the idea is owed partly to the advocacy of Mr. Baucus, whose committee has jurisdiction over tax policy and health programs, and to support from Republicans. There is less enthusiasm among Democrats in the House, though the health debate is at an early stage and no comprehensive plans are on the table.

Also, Mr. Obama’s own idea for raising revenues for health care — limiting the income tax deductions that the most affluent taxpayers claim — has run into opposition not only from Mr. Baucus but also from his counterpart in the House, Representative Charles B. Rangel, Democrat of New York, who is chairman of the Ways and Means Committee.

Mr. Obama’s proposed limit on deductions would raise an estimated $318 billion over 10 years, or half of his proposed “health care reserve fund.” That is a fraction of the revenues that could be raised from taxing employer-provided health benefits.

In the campaign, Mr. McCain estimated that taxing all health benefits would raise $3.6 trillion over a decade — “a multitrillion-dollar tax hike,” one Obama advertisement said.

The Congressional Budget Office says that including health benefits in taxable income could mean $246 billion in additional revenue for a single year. Stopping short of full taxation, as Mr. Baucus and others suggest, would mean less new revenue.

The latest government figures, for 2007, show that 70 percent of the 253 million people with health insurance received at least some of their coverage through employers. Employment-based insurance covers three-fifths of the population under 65.

Those who want to tax benefits in whole or in part make two main arguments. They say the tax exclusion is a generous subsidy that insulates employees from the true costs of health care, leading them to demand more of it and driving up overall costs. Critics also say the policy is unfair because it favors higher-income people. “It’s too regressive,” Mr. Baucus said. “It just skews the system.”

But in a blueprint for health legislation that he issued last November, Mr. Baucus said taking the exclusion on health benefits out of the tax code would go “too far” and “cause widespread disruption in employer-based health benefits.” Mr. Obama has also said he wants to preserve employer-provided coverage. Mr. Baucus, in his paper, cited other options, like taxing benefits above some value, taxing only wealthy employees or both.

However the proposal is devised, advocates will not have an easy time selling it.

Republicans, like Mr. McCain and former President George W. Bush before him, tend to favor taxing the benefits to finance other incentives for people to buy their own insurance. But given Mr. Obama’s use of the issue in his campaign, Republicans are unlikely to support a change unless the president himself proposes it, a senior adviser to Senate Republicans said.

Many Democrats, especially House liberals, are opposed. “It’s a dumb idea,” said Representative Pete Stark of California, chairman of the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Health. “We have to maintain as much as we can of the employer payments.”

Administration officials often say they will not repeat the mistakes of former President Bill Clinton, whose plan for universal health insurance collapsed in 1994. But Frank B. McArdle, a health policy expert at Hewitt Associates, a benefits consulting firm, said, “If President Obama agrees to cut back the tax break for employee health benefits, he will risk repeating one of Mr. Clinton’s errors by disrupting health insurance for people who have it and like it.”

Some big businesses consider nontaxable employment benefits a tool for recruiting and retaining workers. The United States Chamber of Commerce opposes eliminating the exclusion on health benefits, but James P. Gelfand, senior manager of health policy, said the group had not taken a position on limiting it.

Organized labor, a pillar of the Democratic Party base, considers the benefits among the union movement’s historic achievements for the middle class. But a split could be developing between the manufacturing unions, which have negotiated rich benefit packages, and the growing service employees unions, which include many low-wage workers without generous benefits.

Alan V. Reuther, legislative director of the United Automobile Workers, said: “These proposals would represent a tax increase on working families. They would undermine good health care coverage.”

But at the Service Employees International Union, which was an early supporter of Mr. Obama, Dennis Rivera, the coordinator of the union’s health care campaign, said that while his organization was “predisposed not to agree to the taxing of health benefits,” he would wait to pass judgment. The union, Mr. Rivera said, wants to see how any tax changes fit into the overall effort to revamp the health care system. “We need to see the total picture,” he said.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

A California budget "solution"

http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/1239210.html

"I know that we're not sending [Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger] the budget that he wanted," [Assembly Speaker Karen] Bass said. "But this isn't the budget that any of us wants."

Yet this is what we're getting!

The Dems and GOP can't agree on whether to raise taxes (in a state with some of the highest taxes in the US) and/or cut critical spending to public services to balance the $15B budget deficit, which caused the budget to be about 80 days late this year (a new record in tardiness for a state that has only passed 4 budgets on time). So what do they do instead? Borrow against future budgets of course! Arnold's billions of dollars of bonds did not sustainably fix CA's budget woes, as he promised when running to oust Gray Davis. Regardless, there have been some painful cuts, such as smaller doctor reimbursements for Medi-Cal, smaller or suspended cost-of-living increases for schools/seniors, cuts to disability/SSI, and many teachers/public workers laid off. Of course this mostly hurts the poorest and weakest of us, who don't really matter. At least they managed to close some tax loopholes on the rich and privileged (the famous yacht/RV deduction), or so they claim. But plenty of other holes remain.

So now the CA legislature (with a Congress-like 19% approval rating, compared to Bush and Arnold's 38%) has decided to play some accounting tricks to appear to balance the budget. I love the Sac Bee term for it: "employing accounting maneuvers". So basically CA will take 10% larger income tax witholdings in the first half of the calendar year, and then take less in the second half or give it back to us as reimbursement later (we can opt out of this though, but probably most people won't). By the way, tax reimbursements for archaic paper filers (such as idiots like myself) can take up to 6 months for delivery, according to the CA Franchise Tax Board. Well, I filed my 2007 return in February, and haven't got my meager reimbursement yet in September! I emailed, mailed, and called the FTB about it, and they said they didn't know why there was a delay, but would "flag" my file for fast action. That was 3 weeks ago, with no results. I can't stand how the state just decides to sit on your money (money that you could have invested to collect interest, or more like watch it evaoprate in the turbulent market!), and you just have to wait until they get around to returning the money you earned months ago back to you. So for them to seek to balance the budget by increasing income tax witholdings, I can just see our wages stagnating in Sacramento's coffers for months, if not years. And can you imagine the sea of confused filers and complaints that will flood the FTB, an agency that's not exactly known for outstanding customer service? Obviously Lehman and Fannie aren't the only financial institutions that are terribly mismanaged and make poor decisions that hurt themselves and their customers.

So the legislature will pick up the budget shortfall in year X by siphoning tax revenue from year X+1. But what happens when the budget for year X+2 comes around? Now you have to take even more money from the future pot to compensate for the money you withdrew last year. Pretty soon we'll be paying for the 2015 budget with 2030 money, which is like a no-interest bond for them! The state doesn't have to pay interest to the taxpayers that it borrows from without our consent. Of course this is just a stopgap measure to buy them some time in order to draft a "real" budget that could persist. Well considering their track record for cooperation and punctuality, I think it's more likely that we'll win the lottery!

Well speaking of that, come November the voters will get to decide whether we want to borrow from future lottery revenues to help balance the budget too. So buy more scratchers! But the lottery is just a sick social experiment. Critics say the CA lottery is terribly underperforming versus other states, needs to vastly improve marketing, and should be privatized. Well maybe so, but as we know, most gambling/lottery operations prey on and hurt lower income individuals the most. And those are the vulnerable people who depend on state services to literally stay alive. So they're getting the double-whammy in CA: cuts to their services, as well as greedy Wall Street involvement in the lottery. So for the few lucky winners, they'll get less money because some will be shipped off to investors. And of course the lottery causes many social problems that push more people into financial ruin, force more desperate families to file for state support, and have less spending money to infuse into the state's economy. Is it any sort of budget solution to promote the lottery - where sales tax dollars just become lottery revenues instead? That's like Enron accounting.

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why not just sue the estate of ken lay for the money enron stole from the state? i think it's around 16 billion? oh, that's right, arnie dropped any charges or possible lawsuits against him or enron. that's how he funded his recall.

Wow, he really gave them immunity?

Yep, it appears so! Davis-Bustamante were preparing a $9B suit/refund against Enron for the CA energy scam, but Arnold dropped it. Well $9B would have gone a long way to balancing our current budget.

http://baltimorechronicle.com/oct03_Palast.shtml

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I guess the last budget proposal was "j/k", and this is the real one:

http://www.sacbee.com/111/story/1249171.html

It's sad that it took 81 late days and state childcare/medical facilities scrambling for stopgap funding in the meantime (or just flat out closing their doors to the needy public) for the CA legislature to realize that they can increase revenues by actually getting corporations to pay their taxes! So instead of using private citizen taxpayers as "ATM machines" as Arnold said, they will scrap those short-sighted, disrespectful accounting gimmicks and instead collect more revenue by actually enforcing the corporate tax code. They will make late payment penalties larger, which will either net them more money in penalties or increase on-time payments. Wealthy persons and companies that owe more than $1M in back taxes will be penalized 20% instread of 10%, and some tax amnesties will be cancelled. Small companies are supposedly exempt.

Actually I have to give credit to Arnold for standing firm on this and not just signing the previous stupid budget to get it over with. It's more than I can say of the spineless Democrats and ideologue Republicans in the legislature. What if their salaries and benefits froze up for 81 fretful days, so they could see what it's like for lowly state workers and the clients who depend on them?

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Also... what do you think about the huge infusion of public cash into the money markets by the Feds? So much for small government and laissez-faire. Maybe such a drastic move is unavoidable at this point, to restore some lost confidence and rescue the financial sector. But it sends a dangerous message of course, like the market is the misbehaving spoiled teen, and the government is the rich father who will always pull major strings to bail the kid out of trouble. Maybe instead of rescuing greedy idiots every time they shoot themselves in the foot, we can overhaul the entire system so that our economy is not so dependent on overborrowing, overspending, and lusting for larger and larger profits? I must be smoking. Well, at least some people got their money back in the market with this "good news". The Dow swung from 11,300 to 10,600 to 11,400 in half a week, sheesh.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080919/financial_meltdown.html

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Energy use reforms

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080619/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/mortgage_fraud

With all these known cases of fraud from the subprime fiasco (and who knows how many other crooks got away clean?) as precedent for Western greed, don't you think that something fishy must be going on with $135 oil besides traditional supply and demand market forces?

Bush, McCain, and Obama have been discussing energy a lot recently, for obvious reasons. Bush and McCain want to lift the moratorium on offshore oil exploration and drilling. While this may help, energy experts think that it will add 18M barrels/year at most to our domestic production (a drop in the bucket, since the US consumes 20M barrels a day), and won't be fully developed for 2 decades. Though I guess every little bit helps, but it would be a shame if we spoil the Florida or Southern California coastlines with ugly rigs. And if America can reduce its oil usage by 10%, that's 700+M barrels of savings a year, much better than new drilling.

I just wish the next president can use incentives and fines to encourage changes in energy use habits. I would hope that the DOE could have an auditing wing, to have random inspections of businesses, vehicles, and homes, like the FDA and IRS do. Tax breaks and credits for motion-sensing lights, solar panels, efficient appliances, and other green practices, and penalties for excessive heating/cooling use, poorly maintained automobiles, leaving lights on when the building is empty, etc. Subsidized utilities and gasoline for the first X gallons/month (to help lower income people who can't avoid driving), but huge fees if you surpass your consumption quota, or if you drive wasteful vehicles. Maybe there could be exceptions if you live in remote areas or work a job that requires heavy driving.

So this could help both the rich and poor. The rich may live more wastefully, but they have the money to afford green tech improvements and earn credits. The poor can't, but they consume less and will get subsidies. So you can couple low energy prices with reduced usage. High prices do serve as an effective deterrent, but they mostly hurt the people who are most vulerable and least to blame for waste. I know this is invasive, but survival comes before personal freedoms (man, my rhetoric is starting to sound like War on Terror!). And then maybe we can slash useless NASA and military research projects, and use that money to improve public transit, the electricity grid, and rail freight networks. Also building a few more refineries and nuclear plants without red tape wouldn't hurt. If places like NY and CA have a problem with nuclear power, rural areas in the Midwest and South would gladly accept the risk for all the jobs and commerce that would come with the new plants.