Showing posts with label europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label europe. Show all posts

Saturday, January 23, 2016

The Imitation Game

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5CjKEFb-sM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultra

I would recommend it (of course it was an indep. film), and it was a new angle on the WWII unsung hero story (how nerds/misfits helped win the war in a big way, and struggled with skeptics/haters and big moral decisions).

Reflecting on WWI-WWII, I think it was one of the greatest tragedies in modern history that the Western powers allowed GER to fall into extremism and aggression. Like Russia's revolutions and purges were of course a terrible waste of human capital, but Russia was pretty much a 3rd world country until recently.

For GER, they were world leaders in various scientific and cultural disciplines, and of course had a robust military and industries. Sure they did some bad things during WWI, but they weren't clear "villains", and the punishment imposed on them was unjust - I guess fueled by victor's hubris and other irrationality.

As far as UK-FRA were concerned, they wanted to kick GER down a few notches so they wouldn't ever again be a rival for preeminence in W Eur? But I suppose no one ever considered trying to make GER an ally in order to gain strength and plan for a potential face off with Russia/Bolshevism. Well, WWI and postwar leaders in UK-FRA were not exactly impressive.

Clearly the EU learned that lesson the hard way, but I wonder what history would have been like if the Allies approached post-WWI GER with a Marshall-plan/NATO mentality rather than the typical European to-the-victor-go-the-spoils approach. I know we can't expect those leaders to have implemented ideas ahead of their time, but I'm fairly sure there were some intellectuals who were proposing similar things but getting dismissed. Heck they idealistically made the League of Nations, even though it was terribly flawed.

So you wonder how much better the world would be today if Western powers harnessed GER's potential to advance humanity and modern values, vs. all the resources allocated for WWII activities (and WWII just led to another wasteful military buildup that fortunately didn't escalate). Maybe the same can be said about post-Napoleonic France, but that was still the monarchic period, and leaders were understandably scared of Fr. Revolutionary thinking.   

But all that shows how even advanced nations can so quickly devolve into xenophobia, ultra-nationalism, and barbaric aggression with the proper external/internal pressures and extremist messages from leaders. Trump and white-working-class anger are milder manifestations, and I don't think the US is at risk in the forseable future, but it is a shame any time a world power with so much potential for good strays off the higher path and instead becomes a negative force in the world.

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And re: Alan Turing and Project Ultra, it's very sad but typical that the gov't he worked hard to preserved ended up screwing him and literally killing him (he was outed as gay, and the backward laws/medicine at the time prescribed hormonal therapy with bad side effects - he committed suicide a year after treatment began). And if you're gay and smart, of course you're a commie spy, so life must not have been pleasant for him during the postwar years (esp. since he couldn't tell the world his wartime actions, so no one knew he was a hero).

Imagine all the other great contributions he could have made to society had he not been persecuted to an early death. And in the context of WWII, the conflict is depicted as good vs evil, and tyranny vs freedom. But if you were a woman, black, gay, Jew, or another minority, neither the Axis nor Allies treated you very well. of course the Axis treated those groups worse, but if you were a member of one of those groups, you had to wonder WTF you were fighting for. I guess it's like US blacks during the Civil War too - it's not like they had it so great if the Union won, and Abe Lincoln was probably the most pro-equality president (it took him a while, but he really became a champion) until LBJ and Obama. But they were in a tough position to support the least evil side (but not nec. a good side for them, which unfortunately did not exist).

So a woman who was brilliant at maths but couldn't get a professional job in the UK because of her gender, and a math genius who had to hide his sexuality in the UK, significantly contributed to the Allies defeating the Nazis faster, with potentially millions of lives saved on both sides. That should be a big lesson about what social values we should fight and die to protect, and what harm we cause when we marginalize, exclude, and block our neighbors from reaching their potential (yes I'm looking at you, 2016 GOP).

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Lastly, we know of the WWII folks as the Greatest Generation, and despite their prejudices and ignorance, I really do think they were great in terms of prudence and discipline. As depicted in The Imitation Game, the UK gov't first had to identify a path to victory (partly by cracking the Enigma settings puzzle), then recruit, fund, and trust a team who could deliver in time (a group of "rejects" with unorthodox methods). They had to let them do it their way, and not stifle their creativity with bureaucracy/meddling. Then once the puzzle was solved, they had to keep it a secret and strategically select interventions that had the highest statistical probability to (a) win the war fastest, and (b) not tip off the Nazis that Enigma was cracked. The same can be said of the Manhattan Project, but Ultra was more complicated from a game theory perspective, because there was the element of the German's actions/reactions that they couldn't control but had to predict.

I really don't think Western leaders and armed forces of today could have executed a project so well, and made the tough but correct decisions. You see how our "best and brightest" messed up the War on Terror and the War on Drugs - and that is when we enjoy huge resource advantages. But maybe that is the problem, advantage leads to overconfidence. We drank our own Kool Aid too much re: American exceptionalism. For the UK (and WWII Allies overall), the prospect of losing was very real (and they were losing until 1942), and it forced them to rise to the occasion.

Today, the sad truth is our best and brightest do not go into gov't and public leadership. Both the gov't and the individuals are at fault for this, but the gov't more so (reasons? just watch a session of Congress or a GOP debate). Obama and Bill Clinton are exceptions, but the majority of politicians these days do not have the "right stuff" to even make it as a mediocre middle manager or professional in the private sector. They are seriously worthy of ridicule, not admiration.

I would hope that if/when the next WWII-scale crisis arises, our best minds and leaders will participate (and be allowed to participate in the right roles). But the problem is that many of our modern problems are not acute, but slow bleeds, like climate change, injustice, and terrorism. There isn't a sense of urgency for the Zuckerbergs and Musks of the world to enter public service (not that those guys are natural leaders with great moral compasses, but they are very smart/capable, even if their EQs were borderline autistic in their earlier years as CEO). Or they cling to the unproven libertarian belief that the private sector corporate model is in the best position to solve humanity's biggest problems. I disagree; Zuck couldn't even get India to accept his free internet, so there are obvious limits as to how much good one firm (and its army of lawyers, PR, and marketers) can do.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-criticized-in-india-over-free-limited-internet-1453398493

Thursday, October 1, 2015

What does a wave of immigrants do to an economy? It was fine for Florida in 1980

There is little to no hard data showing that immigrants hurt a local economy, but there are some cases where their benefits (or lack of harm) were clearly documented: http://www.npr.org/2015/10/01/444912593/when-cuban-migrants-flooded-miami-what-did-it-do-to-the-local-economy

In the case of the "Scarface" sudden influx of 125K Cubans to South FL in 1980 (incl. 25K former criminals according to the film), there was no economic evidence of negative impact. Many were processed and enrolled in jobs/school quickly, so their need for gov't services was minor. Also they served to "grow the pie" by creating more economic demand (125K refugees = 125K consumers), which resulted in more jobs and sales for Americans. Local wages did not fall. And eventually many of them got education and contributed intellectual capital to the US. Europe, with an aging population and plummeting birth rate, actually NEEDS a lot more productive young people who are willing to work manual/unskilled jobs.

I know 1980 was a different time, and many Cubans benefited from previously-migrated relatives and a familiar culture in FL. But clearly the US will not take in 100K people from the Mideast, and they won't be concentrated in one state. As we discussed before, many Syrian refugees are educated and may also speak English, so it's not like the typical Latin American migrant profile. Detractors will come up with all sorts of excuses to oppose refugee resettlement (cost, security, culture clash), but the bottom line is they have no evidence to back up those suspicions, and as a UN member we have an obligation to act. There will always been some criminals and deadbeats among any group of people, but refugees are no worse than a random sampling of Americans (in fact they're likely better).  

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Refugee crisis

http://www.pri.org/stories/2015-09-03/5-groups-doing-important-work-help-refugees-you-may-not-have-heard
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/03/migration-crisis-germany-presses-europe-into-sharing-refugees

Frankly I've been avoiding this topic because it's just too damn depressing. Being a refugee fleeing war is one of the scariest situations to me - I can't possibly imagine leaving your whole existence behind to flee to a foreign place. Because if you don't, you or your loved ones will starve/be conscripted/get raped-murdered.
The US helped many in my family who were refugees in the 1970s, but we really haven't done that recently, not since Somalia. What are the UN, US, and UK doing about the current crisis? Germany has been forced into a leadership situation and pledged to absorb 800K mostly Syrian refugees (out of a potential 4M). If we won't physically take in people, at least we can send cash and supplies to those who are.
I've already written about how the US turned its back on allies and refugees before (below). Are we complacent to hide behind our geographic isolation? The UK's excuse is that the world should focus on "improving conditions" in Syria so there isn't a need to flee. Well they aren't doing squat about that either, so what gives? I know every nations has very needy people domestically and may not be able to support many new visitors. Greece is on the front lines, and obviously is not in the best position to handle the crisis. If the US was as welcoming as Scandinavians per capita, we would be taking in 5M refugees this year. And we can, for probably the cost it takes to maintain a nuclear carrier. But we won't.

http://worldaffairs-manwnoname.blogspot.com/2014/08/children-fleeing-central-america.html
http://worldaffairs-manwnoname.blogspot.com/2014/05/refugee-to-native-ratios.html
http://worldaffairs-manwnoname.blogspot.com/2013/08/syria-and-responsibility-to-protect.html
http://worldaffairs-manwnoname.blogspot.com/2013/10/with-friends-like-these.html
How about China too? Aren't they the #2 economy and don't they want to be respected as a global leader? Syria is a key partner - what are they doing for their friends? Like climate change, it's someone else's problem, even if the victims are innocent and the definition of deserving help.

Sunday, June 28, 2015

Cold War 2.0

Vice had a special about the Ukraine crisis, and how the US/NATO and Russia are inching closer to the brink (even though we might not realize it in light of the spotty media coverage).

We know that the Russian regime is corrupt and in some cases unlawful. Probably the world would be better off without Putin. But of course they see the US exactly the same, and we have committed war crimes since the fall of the USSR too. Domestic media paint things as good vs. evil in both nations. Maybe with the facts as the impartial judge, Russia has committed more transgressions than the West, but that doesn't really matter when missiles get launched.

So how did we get here?
  • After the fall of the USSR, the Russian economy was in shambles, their pride was shaken, and recently freed Warsaw Pact republics were looking towards new partnerships in Europe for prosperity and security
  • Russia's aging military was about all it had going for it when Putin took power (embarrassed by the Kursk sub accident, botched hostage rescues, and troubles fighting the Chechens), and his cabinet has been aggressively spending and modernizing since the US campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan
    • Surging energy prices due to the War on Terror and rise of Asia helped Russia's defense budget
  • Former Soviet territories Czech, Poland, and Hungary joined NATO in 1999, and with US encouragement, 9 more nations followed suit from 2004-2009 (incl. all the Baltics)
    • And with the War on Terror bringing US/Coalition forces to several Central Asian republics and Afghanistan, Russia saw itself militarily encircled
  • Traditionally, the US feels that it controls the Americas and Pacific, and Russia's sphere of influence is Central Asia, but now where does Eastern Europe stand?
    • Russia's influence was challenged in the Balkan wars, where Serbia was an important ally
    • While Bosnia was a UN-approved mission, the Kosovo campaign was mostly driven by NATO, due to the Russian UN veto
    • NATO decided to defy Russia and bomb Serbia without UN approval, which was seen as disrespectful aggression and a possible portent of future incursions into previously "hands off" nations in the Russian sphere
  • The Orange Revolution in Ukraine failed (mostly driven by their terrible economy), and they legitimately returned a pro-Moscow leader (Yanukovich) to power
    • Yanukovich was working to scrap a previous deal to bring Ukraine into the EU, which upset much of pro-European western Ukraine
    • He eventually stepped down amidst protests, but Russia saw this as a US-backed coup, the Ukrainian civil war broke out, and Russia illegally annexed Crimea
    • Putin also declared that Russia should control lands where Russian is spoken, which includes eastern Ukraine (Donetsk region) and some of the Baltics
  • I won't go into the Ukraine war details here because it's complex and I don't know much, but it's clear that both powers do not want Ukraine to fall to the other side
    • But as a result, NATO has tripled its troops presence in the Baltics/Arctic, and there are even US troops on the ground in western Ukraine
    • Russia has amassed forces on the Ukraine border to levels not seen since WWII (and also moved nukes to their far western territory Kalingrad, which is 300 miles from Berlin)
    • The US has been working on installing missile defense batteries in Eastern Europe since the Bush years (currently stalled but Obama has revise the plan to start construction in Poland in 2018)
    • Both sides are posturing/provoking the other with large military exercises and unusual presence of air/sea forces in previously neutral areas
Who knows what mistakes or calculated risks could result in a scary escalation? So how to we pull back from the brink?
  • The problem with military buildups is that the other side can't be sure if they are defensive or not
    • We in the West would probably find it ridiculous that Russians think that NATO wants to attack them, but can you really blame them?
    • The US/EU sanctions on Russia due to their Ukraine actions is seen as economic warfare (even though the plunging Ruble is mostly due to oil than our sanctions)
    • They saw how the US/UK ignored dissenting opinions, brutally invaded and occupied Iraq, and set up new bases all over the world like imperialists
    • If the US wants to be the sole superpower, obviously they need to knock down Russia a notch or two (or cage them like we do with Iran)
    • But Russia also wants to seize the opportunity of a militarily distracted/weakened US in order to increase its influence and security position - maybe back to the USSR days where they were feared by all
    • NATO can't just sit idly by when Crimea falls and Russia is lying about its troops and weapons pouring into Donetsk, so they feel the need to send forces east to show they mean business and deter further Russian aggression
    • Barring a risky nuclear ultimatum, both sides will not back down at present course (and will match actions tit-for-tat), so a different strategy is needed
    • There are no "madmen" in this situation, and both sides are acting perfectly rationally - just like the Cuban Missile Crisis. But that is the scary part: when escalation to war is the rational move (not to mention what freak accidents or irrational moves could occur), we have to change the rules of the game before it's too late.
    • A stalemate and huge buildup of forces on the border is not a sustainable solution either, because a bunch of anxious troops and one false move could make things quickly unravel. We have to demilitarize Eastern Europe, and hopefully permanently.
  • Why did NATO accept the Baltics and other former Warsaw Pact nations into their club? Those armies are tiny - what did NATO have to gain defensively at the risk of provoking Russia? That land is very valuable from an offensive standpoint, which is why Russia took it so seriously.
    • They should be free to join the EU for prosperity and non-military cooperation, but NATO is a military org with only one purpose - a hedge against Russian invasion of WESTERN Europe (kind of irrelevant since the UK and France have nukes)
    • We can kindly "expel" those nations from NATO (compensate them economically), withdraw all forces (incl. any missile defense plans), and declare those nations an unaligned buffer zone - but sign a treaty with Russia that any incursions from either side will be met with force
    • That way we remove pretense that Russia uses to justify its actions against a perceived NATO threat, and if Russia does try to muscle into Eastern Europe again, they must do so fully aware that they're ushering in WWIII
    • Russia should reciprocate by withdrawing from Crimea
    • We just have to let Ukraine duke it out and let the chips fall as they may; the losing power has to respect the rights of the victorious side in the name of world peace
  • I'm not saying any of this is easy, and some people will get screwed, but it gives a better chance to avoid nuclear war than the status quo

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Race and America

http://news.yahoo.com/shooting-downtown-charleston-south-carolina-031543897.html

We don't yet know the motives of the shooter (only that he is a 21-year-old white male who is still at large in SC). But authorities are labeling this as a hate crime. I know that one incident does not make a trend, but could this be a signal of growing white backlash against "Black Lives Matter" and other efforts to expose racial injustice?

I worry about white people (esp. men) who feel economically marginalized and dignity-attacked by national events since the recession. The worst thing would be a white-power militant backlash like some of the right-wing European parties that rapidly gained prominence during the Euro crisis.

Of course the hardships and insults that some whites feel in America may be real, but the culprits are obviously not minorities. But the true culprits are really good at concealment/propaganda and letting media deflect attention away from them. All you hear from FNC is that Christianity, white people (men), "US values", guns/cops, and conservatism are under attack. But the data show that evangelical Christianity is as strong as ever (despite declines in all other forms of Christianity), whites still have huge advantages in terms of incarceration rates, income, life expectancy, and most other socioeconomic metrics. Also, 3X more hate crimes are perpetrated against blacks than whites, even though blacks are only 12% of the US.

Obviously many whites are having more struggles in America. If they are ignorant, it's fairly easy to persuade them to blame immigrants, gays, liberals, etc. Much of Rush, Fox, etc.'s airtime is devoted to this. So are they actually the race-baiters who motivate some angry whites to attack minorities? Blood could be on their hands (like the Gabby Giffords shooting, etc.).

http://mediamatters.org/video/2014/12/01/fox-guest-we-will-see-more-white-americans-unde/201727
http://www.newshounds.us/to_bill_o_reilly_white_christians_are_under_attack_but_not_african_americans_actually_killed_by_the_police_041615
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/16/opinion/charles-blow-woe-of-white-men-again.html

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Also, did you hear about this Supreme Court ruling (TX did not violate the 1st Amend. by prohibiting a Southern group from making a custom license plate with the Dixie flag) where Thomas was the difference maker, siding with the liberals for the first time? If I can assume that his decision was motivated by his race and his deeper understanding of US racial history, is this an indictment that the Court is biased by personal background? I know we are all biased by our backgrounds, but the Court is supposed to be fair and just and blind, right?

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/confederate-flag-plates-lack-support-supreme-court

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This was a good discussion about Charleston and race: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/finding-roots-dylann-roofs-radical-violence/

I wish the guests would have hit harder. Yes, white (men) feel under attack these days - but they should have said that those feelings are utterly baseless and not grounded in fact. Or if some whites are having a harder go these days, it is not due to gains by minorities (and there certainly isn't a minority conspiracy for "payback" against whites - even if it's quite deserved). If they don't outright dismiss these lies, then people will continue to believe them (like how the GOP injects doubt into the global warming issue). You can't give Holocaust deniers and Holocaust historians equal respect just to maintain a "fair debate". Bill Maher said that denying the existence of racism (and accusing others of race-baiting) is a form of racism in itself, and I think that's correct. Some on the right would rather attribute Roof's actions to "hatred of Christianity" instead of hatred of blacks. Speaking of that - to those who don't think the SC massacre (and our reaction to it) was racial, what if a synagogue or a meeting of (white) Wall St. execs was attacked by a black power extremist? If America's response would have been different (and it definitely would have), then that shows bias.

IMO, the debate about the Dixie flag is a red herring. I understand that its presence evokes powerful emotions on both sides, but it's a distraction from the core issue. Fighting over symbols is often a fruitless distraction. We can't change the past (nor its icons) and it's better if we accept it and move on. I suppose it's understandable for Southern folks to feel pride about their roots and the "War for Southern Independence." But they also have to acknowledge that some aspects of their society/regime were evil - and the consequences on blacks persist today. They can acknowledge and find a better path forward like Germany, or they can stick their heads in the sand like Japan and Turkey. I would also hope that African-Americans can see past the flag and not let it consume disproportionate attention. They have more important battles to fight.

Thursday, August 7, 2014

The aftermath of the Gaza war

Sorry for the long commentary below. It just kinda snowballed and I thought these articles made a lot of interesting points.

As before, sentiment in Europe is generally more anti-Israel than in America. This is possibly driven by the larger Muslim populations in the EU, as well as those gov'ts more dovish politics vs. America's. However, the pro-Israel camp is chalking this up to deeply-rooted European anti-Semitism (affecting as many as 165MM Europeans according to some of their think tanks - but then again, when you are a hammer, you see nails everywhere). Strange that the "anti-Semitism" only rears its ugly head when the IDF murders scores of Palestinian kids. I guess they only come out when the liberal, pro-Hamas media incite them? Obviously that is ridiculous, and I think most Europeans don't have a problem with Israel (or worldwide Jewry) when that country isn't breaking laws and hurting people. Unfortunately, there has been some real anti-Semitism too. I am not sure about the death/damage from hate crimes, but some Jewish establishments in the EU have closed as a precaution until the war blows over. Still, some hateful words at an overseas rally is different than a modern military destroying lives and property of poor people, and not compensating them for it (as usual, the international community will pay the tab of Gaza rebuilding - only to be leveled again in the next war).

Globescan took an average of 20 countries' opinions on whether certain nations had overall positive or negative influences on the world. GER, CAN, and UK lead the pack with about a 3:1 ratio of positive-to-negative. US and China are similar at 1:1 (way to be a zero, USA! USA!). Israel is in between Russia and N Korea, at about 1:2 negative (however they can still gloat that they are better than Iran, at over 1:3 negative). I know opinion polls have limited value, and I don't know how they selected respondents, but this seems to suggest that world opinion is generally negative on Israel. Hamas/Palestine was not part of the survey, but I can imagine their rating would be pretty low too. Israel might chalk this up to ignorance or anti-Semitism again, but this survey was about a country's impact on the world, and more Jews live outside of Israel than within it. I think it's a reflection of gov't policies.

In the US, non-Republicans and Americans under 50 tend to evaluate Israel's actions in Gaza as unjustified, while older folks and Republicans (who tend to be Evangelicals) take the opposite view. Regarding age, this is likely influenced by memory - folks over 50 may actually remember the Arab-Israeli wars (when it was an old-fashioned army vs. army fight, not occupying bully vs. poor resistor). So that clouds their perception of the current conflict, and like Fox News, they may only see Israel as the innocent victim surrounded by strong, evil enemies. This is likely how the Tel Aviv propaganda machine wants us to feel, even if it's incompatible with current realities.

The West is also seeing Israel become less Western. The Economist says that this could be driven by the 1990s influx of 1MM Eastern European Jews who were less educated than previous waves of emigres, and not accustomed to democracy and Western thinking (they may have lived under the Soviet regime). They are part of the "might makes right" camp, and may be more accepting of brutality to ensure a strong, secure Jewish State. This has manifested itself in internal media censorship, marginalization of the peace movement, more racism toward Palestinians, and possibly the rise of Likud over Kadima a few years ago. The West may have less in common culturally with Israel now, thereby reducing the likelihood that we will agree on policies, priorities, and tactics. Maybe that is why many in the West are outraged about the civilian casualties and expect the IDF to hold themselves to higher standards than that. Whereas the Israelis may take it less seriously, or prefer to focus on Hamas' role in the casualties - whether accurate or not (stop using them as human shields, if you didn't fire rockets we wouldn't have to invade in the first place, they don't accept our right to exist, etc.). Still, allies don't have to totally understand each other to have a fruitful relationship. However, what has the West really gotten out of its relations and investments in Israel? Israel would say that they are the front lines of the War on Terror (similar to Pakistan, but the difference is we fully acknowledge the problems associated with our partnership with Pakistan), and they keep madmen like Assad and Ahmadinejad in check. I don't buy that, because Sunni nations in the area can fill that role if Israel wasn't involved (and they would likely do it less belligerently). Israel obviously contributes a lot of good to the world in terms of science, commerce, and human capital - but I seriously question their value to US strategy/interests in the region (esp. for the price tag - both financial and perceptual).

Israel could be reacting to this souring Western sentiment in 2 ways, both of which are not helpful for the future. (1) If Europe and younger, non-Republican Americans are so anti-Semitic, we won't be able to count on them when times get tough. Therefore, let's just do what we want and not care about their opinions. Pro-Israel lobbying will make sure US aid will still flow and we'll prevail. (2) We need a PR offensive in the West. To counter all the pro-Palestinian lying voices on social media, let's shout louder and re-hash the IDF's talking points. Westerners are just being deceived; let's show them the truth.

Re: (1), it's never a good thing when a state is accountable to no one. It's not that Israel isn't reliant on other nations (not necessarily for survival, but they are not immune to sanctions either), but those partners are unlikely to administer the tough love if Israel oversteps its bounds. Or in other words, people may rather let Arabs/Palestinians suffer than dealing with the costs of disciplining Israel. Re: (2), it's sometime true that many people will believe a huge lie, but usually the public can sniff out BS. I say this time and time again, but if your side is so right, why do you need to bend over backward to convince people? It should be self-evident. Like no matter how many millions the Chinese spend on PR and what defaming things they say about the Dalai Lama, I think very few non-Chinese will side with them on the Tibet issue. 

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Regarding the fragile ceasefire now and potential peace resolution, Norman Finkelstein (the DN link) has an interesting, and disconcerting take. The vast majority of Israelis support actions like the current Gaza war (because they feel it makes them safer, costs them little, and hurts their sworn enemy), and are not that serious about working hard for a two-state solution (little to gain from their perspective and potentially a lot to lose in terms of national pride/Zionism and security). Unfortunately, their history in Gaza has only reinforced this. After Sharon pulled the settlers out, Hamas took over and the rockets started to rain down. Israel was "forced" to invade at least 3 times. Maybe some in Israel feel that it was better when they outright controlled Gaza (now they are more like prison guards). So the land-for-peace model seemed to fall on its face, and Israelis may have less faith in it for the future.

So re: Gaza, some refer to it as "mowing the lawn." Every now and then, they have to blow stuff up, to keep them off balance for the next time Israel "has to" invade. So this current invasion is not about the 3 Israeli teens, not about the rockets, and not about the tunnels supposedly infiltrating Israel proper (you see how the gov't changed its premise for war mid-stream just like the Bushies?). Regarding the teens, there is no proof that Hamas was behind that, and some new evidence suggests the contrary. That was a tragedy, but not justification for a war. Regarding the rockets, the new Egyptian regime (that took over after Mubarak) destroyed most of the smuggling tunnels on that border, so it is very unlikely that Hamas is well stocked or equipped with newer "super rockets" from Iran that are supposedly deadlier. Regarding the tunnels into Israel - a tunnel has 2 openings, right? Why go through the effort of invading Gaza and killing thousands when Israel can just destroy the tunnel openings on their side any time they want (if such tunnels exist)? Also, attacking hospitals and a power plant have nothing to do with those stated goals. So this war is more and more looking like just mowing the lawn. They learned their lesson from the problemating Lebanon invasion. They don't want Hamas to "fortify" Gaza and make it harder for them if a serious invasion becomes necessary. Hamas is a lot weaker than Hezbollah, but they have been building tunnels and defenses within Gaza. That could help explain why the IDF death toll this year was around 60 soldiers, vs. 10 in their 2008 Cast Lead invasion. But they have spent this month destroying all that Hamas stuff. So clearly Gaza is not "independent" if Israel has this level of destructive influence on a whim.

Finkelstein thinks that the ceasefire will hold because Israel has finished mowing the lawn for now. Israel ends an invasion when (a) their objectives are met or (b) there are no more targets to attack except ones that would involve an unacceptable level of civilian or IDF deaths. Even the IDF realizes that if they went deeper into the most populated areas of Gaza, the death toll could be 5-10X higher, and then they might have real issues with the int'l community. Also, if they press on, they risk losing more soldiers - and being a conscript army, the Israeli public is very sensitive to losses. That's why they bomb targets to hell (in spite of collateral damage) before they put boots on the ground. But still, no more targets are available in Gaza without incurring higher risks. He also predicts that Hamas will agree to peace with the conditions that the blockade is lifted and Fatah polices the border crossings. That would essentially neutralize Hamas' ability to put up any meaningful resistance in the future, and I am not sure how many functional rockets/ammo they still have in storage. So in a sense, this lawn mowing strategy has worked for Israel. The rockets and small IDF losses were minor annoyances, but they eventually may get Hamas to disarm and fade out of relevance. If that plays out, it would set a scary precedent for Israel and other occupying powers. Take the hard-line approach but blame the resistance for the violence. You have the resources and staying power, so keep the pressure on and starve the resistance into irrelevance. This is pretty much what Syria, Sudan, and Russia did/are doing. So no one has to make a deal or make concessions for peace, you can beat the resistance into submission.

Monday, June 10, 2013

How technology is affecting the American Dream

We talked about most of this already but it's a good take on the issue: http://techcrunch.com/2013/06/01/after-your-job-is-gone/

Also another take on the elites vs. rest idea (even Jay-Z, Obama, and Oprah are not spared!) - the author Packer was on Real Time tonight: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/29/books/the-unwinding-by-george-packer.html?pagewanted=all

An aside: L is right that Maher is an idiot and a psycho when it comes to security issues and Islam-bashing. He rightly trashes the 2nd Amend. yet proudly owns guns because "the other crazies are armed". He claims to be a true Libertarian, but supports all sorts of liberty-reducing actions that ostensibly prevent terrorism. It's funny... self-respect and humility often make us better people. But self-preservation and self-love make us pricks. No one wants or needs to die, but the world doesn't need us either.

I guess America's Great Society of the '60s and '90s socialism in Europe were the exception and not the rule. As the author said, most of the modern world resembles the pre-French Revolution "nobles and serfs" model. But it's sad because our generation in the US was brought up to believe that the Great Society was our birthright and if anything, we would make it even better in our lifetimes. Of course things weren't all rosy in the past (bigotry, ignorance, Cold War, etc.), but it's amazing that America of that time period had low unemployment, low wealth inequality, ample gov't services, and low deficits.

Now the opposite is true, though our employment situation is much better than Europe's... and their society may be unraveling faster than ours.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21578386-euro-zone-desperately-need-boost-no-news-bad-news-sleepwalkers

But that is a little deceiving, because while US unemployment is down to like 7.5% now (much higher for young people though), the quality and security of most American jobs are not great, the social safety net is about depleted, and many are not counted as unemployed because they have taken the disability route instead (as we've discussed), or have just become the "permanent, uncounted, unhirables".

The change coincides with the rise of Si Valley, hyper-finance, and globalization. We can't be sure what caused what, but similar things happened during the Guilded Age, fueled by the tech bubble of the time - railroad, electricity, telco, etc. that Wall St. ate up. I guess disruptive tech always creates new winners and losers, but usually doesn't rewrite the labor map. Our new tech industry seems more extreme: highly paid jobs with specialized skills that are not accessible to the mainstream, emphasis on quick ROI rather than long term sustainable growth, and "virtual" products that create a ton of wealth for some but not many new jobs (or in fact replace old jobs). That could be called "progress", but the effects appear to be socially unjust too.

 Also here is a great interview on the issue with Moyers and Richard Wolff:

http://billmoyers.com/segment/richard-wolff-on-fighting-for-economic-justice-and-fair-wages/

Friday, May 31, 2013

European austerity has been an utter failure

NPR interviewed an economist from the AEI, and even he couldn't deny that European austerity hurt growth and what they needed instead was Keynesian stimulus.

This is no big news to those who have been following this issue, but it's good to see almost universal agreement that austerity was the main driver of Europe's double-dip and likely deeper current recession. Only head-in-the-sand EU officials are saying that austerity was necessary to "stabilize the financial markets" and give investors confidence to buy PIIGS bonds. But that is insincere, as it was likely the ECB's concurrent quantitative easing measures and "whatever it takes" declaration (after years of indecision and deliberation) that calmed the markets.

What is more tragic is a "lost generation" of productive young people in Europe who can't get work. They are talented and motivated, but austerity and other factors are literally ruining their futures. Honestly I am amazed we haven't seen a flood of European refugees (I guess it shows how much they love their homelands and families, and maybe how unwelcoming foreign immigration policies are). Some have taken menial jobs in Germany or other places within the EU with lower unemployment. But their extended exposure to these economic woes will likely have major health, psychological, and familial consequences. All because some old, rich fuckos in Berlin and Brussels hate debt and inflation. Well no one likes those things, but they are lesser evils than a lost generation.

I really hope that the EU example deters US conservatives from pushing hard for austerity here. But those folks don't exactly have great working relationships with data and reality, so we can't be sure. If they want austerity so bad, start with the defense industry and tax Wall Street more.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Maybe the US isn't such a religious nation?

http://www.npr.org/2012/10/24/163527979/what-we-say-about-religion-and-what-we-do

But we are sure good at guilt-fueled lying! The common stats show that a much larger % of Americans report being religious and attending worship regularly vs. the EU and virtually all other developed nations. But is it true?

Self-reporting often produces suspect information due to self-esteem, social norms, and image issues - like will an alcoholic admit to his/her problem if directly asked about it, especially from another person face-to-face? 45% of respondents claimed that they went to services EVERY week, but many preachers suspect that is inaccurate because based on what they know of population stats, they should see their pews much fuller then. Americans think that they are supposed to respond that they attend services regularly, otherwise they may not think of themselves as "good people".

So the survey staff tricked the respondents; instead of posing the question directly, they instead asked them to recite their morning schedules for each day of the week. This "disarmed" the respondents and they forgot that they were "supposed" to say they go to worship every week. In this case, only about 20% said they attend church weekly, which is on par with many EU nations.

Of course the act of attending church is not necessarily indicative of one's religious convictions and how important faith is in one's life. Maybe if the survey asked how faith affects daily decisions and political beliefs (or what is the role of religion in society), they may find differences vs. Europe even when reducing the chance of respondent lying. That's of course ironic because EU nations literally have political parties called "Christian Democrats" or whatnot, yet I don't think their beliefs would even come close to those of Palin, Aikin, Ryan, etc. (extreme examples I know). Or at least the Euros know to separate their personal beliefs from the secular constitutional duties of their offices.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Danish Muhammad Cartoons

(From 2006)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4693292.stm




http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/4677976.stm



http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5196323



http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/07/news/europe.php







This controversy is out of control already, so I don't mean to beat a dead horse. All sides are taking past each other and refuse to empathize so much that I don't really have the stomach to comment a lot. But a brief discourse from me is still seven pages!







THE DANISH CARTOONS







http://michellemalkin.com/archives/004413.htm







Here are the actual cartoons from the Danish paper. Some are clearly harmless, and others are obviously pejorative and slanted. Even online, it was terribly hard to find them (ABC, New York Sun, and Philadelphia Inquirer were some of the few outlets to display the images). But leave it to humanitarian Michelle Malkin to provide them for us. Of course the anti-Muslim right wing in the USA are quick to support the Europeans (that's a first) in the name of free speech/press. I find this peculiar, since such hardliners are wont to suppress Bush criticism, castigate the "elite liberal bias" of the media, and denounce any "unpatriotic" thought against the War on Terror. But we can't really expect most media pundits to keep their heads and not exacerbate such controversies, because they feed on hype and anger like crack fiends.







http://www.kcrw.com/cgi-bin/db/kcrw.pl?show_code=tp&air_date=2/6/06&tmplt_type=Show



http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5194727



http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5193894







To elevate the debate, here are some discussions from NPR affiliates. This is the big problem: the Danish paper made a direct request to cartoonists for explicitly provocative images depicting the prophet Mohammad (after the fact, Jyllands-Posten newspaper denies calling for offensive cartoons in particular). That publication has had a long history of harsh editorials against immigrants, and calling for such measures as "reeducation camps" and surveillance of vagrant Muslim youths. In a nation like Denmark with biting satirical tradition, the cartoons were an experiment to ascertain if journalists/illustrators were scared to make controversial depictions and risk backlash. The message is valid, but the messenger is suspect. Unfortunately, Denmark has been one of the least receptive Western European nations to Muslim immigrants, and was under investigation by the UN since 2001 for various racist/discriminatory issues (http://www.faklen.dk/en/doc/somalia.shtml). So this row is not just about journalistic freedoms. Maybe their intent was benign and comical, but they should have known that furor and violence would probably ensue. They have the right to publish anything suitable under the law, but greatly overstepped their bounds and put others at risk. Let psychologists or other researchers do a controlled study on media self-censorship or anti-Muslim-immigrant sentiments in Europe, where the results will actually hold value for the world community, events won't spiral out of control, and innocents won't suffer needlessly.







THE CULTURAL DIVIDE: EUROPE







Some Americans may take offense to every little thing that contradicts their worldview, but Europeans enjoy satire and often hold nothing sacred. They can laugh at themselves, their own cultures, us Yankees, and sometimes other cultures. Humans deserve to live as they want under agreed-upon local and international laws/standards of decency. If they want to exercise their freedoms and expect others to not take it the wrong way, then they should give such respect to everyone else – and most Westerners usually do. No one is blaming Europeans for their idiosyncrasies and penchant for criticism, except when some "Old Europe" nations dared to oppose Bush's Coalition and the invasion of Iraq. But we have to understand that others take offense even when it's not intended. To make matters worse, the perpetrators and their supporters don't think it's a big deal, and may not care or try to understand why Muslims are so angry.







http://www.cfr.org/publication.html?id=8218



http://www.csmonitor.com/2004/1006/p06s02-woeu.html



http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4191408



www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33166.pdf







As the case with the French riots, people already realized (and probably experience it daily) that relations with Muslim immigrants in Europe were not stellar, but never thought it could explode as we have seen. Westerners usually don't spend time in immigrant housing projects, in unemployment lines, or in makeshift, graffiti-laden mosques. They don't witness all the things Muslims are upset about, and may not understand that their dry satire and blasé irreverence often fan the fires. Like Americans and Katrina, their ignorance and apathy for "Les Misérables" have compounded the insult, outrage, and turmoil. And one thing that the wretched and despondent often cling to with all their might is religion. This is true all over the globe, because no hardships or mistreatment can purge it from their souls. Religion may be their last defense against despair, and people will behave irrationally and commit harsh acts to prevent others from threatening that sacred refuge. Apart from the relatively few Westerners who have suffered from Muslim violence/prejudice, Europeans don't know what it feels like to be the victim, the "problem", the outsider, or the unwelcomed. It's easy for the majority to ignore/mistreat minorities and then wonder why they harbor so much discontent. Most European states depend on immigrant labor for their very survival, from poorer Eastern European states or the Islamic/African world. Yet they understandably harbor some hostility for the altering of their traditional societies, frustration at the failure of their integration efforts, and even worry about Turkey's incorporation into the EU, making Europe "too Muslim" (despite the obvious economic incentives).







http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salman_Rushdie#The_Satanic_Verses_controversy



http://www.webcurrent.com/rushdie.html



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3974179.stm







The Danes practically baited Muslim extremists and invited a firestorm. It was a childish dare that degenerated into yellow journalism. With huge Muslim populations in Europe and previous terror attacks in the recent past, you'd think the editors would take notice and show more restraint and caution. You don't dangle a tuna in front of a shark when you're in the water too. The history of Muslim-Western cultural clashes speaks for itself. I'm sure the newspaper executives felt shielded from any repercussions, but now the 12 journalists involved have decided to go into hiding like the fictional writer Salman Rushdie after The Satanic Verses hit the shelves. At least Rushdie's case was more defensible, because he was writing modern allegory indirectly based on the life of Mohammad derived from a controversial early Muslim text (that current Muslims denounce as blasphemous myth). Iran's Ayatollah Khomeini issued a $3M bounty and fatwah for Rushdie's head, which was less about the defense of Islam and more about inciting fanaticism/solidarity over a faux-controversy for political gain. Dutch director Theo Van Gogh (descendant of the suicidal genius painter) was murdered in 2004 after making his film "Submission" about the mistreatment of females in Muslim societies. He was a fringe artist to begin with, so his work never reached the mainstream to generate an international response. Van Gogh ignored numerous death threats until he was finally killed. The film was callous and brash, but was meant to protest a perceived injustice and give a voice to victimized Muslim women, not to ridicule others in a petty manner and mock an entire faith with no clear purpose, as the irresponsible Danes did.







THE CULTURAL DIVIDE: THE ISLAMIC WORLD







Jokes, caricatures, and stereotypes depicting Muslims as terrorists or barbarians are plentiful and clichéd. The Danish cartoonists did nothing groundbreaking, and there was little merit in their efforts. It is abundantly clear that Mohammad is not the enemy of the West. Some of his followers hate Westerners, our values, and wish for all of us to die or convert, but that has nothing to do with the sacred image of a religious figure. Why would they choose to depict him in such shameful ways? Most people love sardonic cartoons of unsavory characters like Osama, Saddam, and the Ayatollahs. Satirize and criticize them all you like, because their poor actions and beliefs justify it. There is just no need, no good purpose, and no logic in satirizing Mohammad. It is no coincidence that Mohammad is the most common male name in all of recorded human history. He had his share of controversial features and his message was imperfect, but he is revered by billions of people. Some things just have to be taboo and "hands off"; or rather we should attack Mohammad's wayward followers instead of the man himself. By comparison, how would we feel if the foreign media mocked our religion and heritage? Many westerners would be up in arms, protest, and probably burn mosques, if Muslims portrayed the Virgin Mary as a whore, Jesus as a queer, or the Holocaust as a joke (as Iranian president Ahmadinejad did, unfortunately). These abominations are no worse than drawing Mohammad as a thug.







Western insensitivity and lack of remorse have exacerbated the conflict. Conversely, Muslim populations have behaved very badly as well. The Bible says god told Moses that he forbade idol worship, and punished the Jews for their iconoclasm. Islam takes it to a much higher degree, as any representations of Allah and Mohammad are forbidden. So again, just because it is permitted in our society doesn't mean that others won't take serious umbrage. Outside of the UN confines, we have no right to tell others how to live, just as they have no right to dictate terms to us. Even though we may not target them directly, we should exercise caution if they could be indirectly influenced by our actions. In the global community, word travels fast and the butterfly effect is rampant. We should hope that Muslims respect non-Muslims, our free speech, and different customs. But we can't always expect others to tolerate all our culturally incompatible practices, especially when they feel deeply dishonored as a result. It goes way beyond debate over burkhas and beards. Those are by-products of religious interpretations, but the cartoons mock the heart and the messenger of the religion itself. It's much worse than "your momma" jokes and way beyond personal. It's their faith and what they hold most dear; why can't we realize the impact of these actions? Bombs and embargos might be much easier to stomach in comparison. We can criticize the repressive regime, the terrorists, and their deplorable actions, but it makes no sense to attack their heritage. Mohammad did not cause 9/11 or the immigrant problems in Europe. Let's place the blame on the right people, even if it requires some introspection and remorse.







While much of the world community has struggled to unite against Iran's nuclear ambitions, the cartoons have definitely galvanized and unified the Muslim world against certain elements of the West. Despite the gravity of this insult, some Muslims are expectedly overreacting, and opportunist figures are manipulating their anger. They can protest in their cities or boycott the newspapers in question, but torching foreign offices or withdrawing diplomats just make matters worse and doesn't restore dignity to their prophet. Why are Muslims killing Muslims over Western ignorance and insensitivity? Hostile regimes in Syria and Iran with poor human rights records and disdain for Jews are still crying foul and calling for retributions against the West. Washington thinks that enemy nations will utilize the turmoil to further anti-American or anti-Western sentiment/violence. Unfortunately, the West's prior penchant for hypocrisy creates an opening that they may be able to exploit. An Iranian publication is issuing a contest for humorous or offensive depictions of the Holocaust, just to see if the world community is equally uncaring and pro-free-speech of Muslim-inspired content derogatory to Judeo-Christians.







http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4694876.stm



http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/02/07/news/web.0207toon.iran.php







Just as current Muslim-Western tensions have nothing to do with Mohammad himself or the practice of Islam in general, this controversy has nothing to do with Jews and Americans, yet they are thrown into the mix because of what they represent. Jews and Muslims have a history of enmity, and America is the proverbial puppet master of the West. As my previous emails/blogs have described, the US and Israel are seen as the enemies of Islam due to a tragic history of distrust, hostility, and brutalities from all sides. I don't know if one can argue who is right or wrong, but obviously many Muslims have serious and justifiable grievances with the policies and activities against them. Many Muslims feel that Western intrusions are jeopardizing their traditional values and religious beliefs. This is probably why extremist groups like Al Qaeda, the Iranian theocracy, and Hamas have significant grassroots support that often catches us by surprise.







http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060208/ap_on_re_mi_ea/prophet_drawings_135;_ylt=AtrwJjjRsuoBBlcp.uwFlsXbEfQA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl







The cartoon chaos inspired mass protests and sometimes bloodshed at US and other Western military/diplomatic stations in the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan. Many moderate Muslims and intellectuals are vehemently protesting the cartoons, but refrain from violence and lawlessness. Much worse, some hateful ideologues and terrorists seek to persuade others that the USA and the West are out to get them, in order to boost support and recruitment. They have no real platform and nothing positive to contribute to Muslim society, so they rely on hate to further their short-term agenda of violence. It's always easier to hate an enemy than work constructively to solve a problem. They want to capitalize on every little offense to Islam in order to convince their followers that we are the enemy to fight, so we should avoid trapping ourselves in that position. They may be oversensitive and excessive, but we shouldn't give them a reason. After Abu Ghraib and other scandals that gained us nothing in return for political hara-kiri, why do we continue to give them ammunition to use against us?







Some American patriots loathe flag burning, yet Koran desecration barely fazes them. After the Koran abuse controversy, we should have learned a lot about the Muslim response to perceived blasphemy, and the need to tread lightly. Most Muslims did not read the inflammatory Newsweek article or even know the location of Guantanámo on a map, yet word traveled fast. They became enraged at the news, and agitators whipped up the masses to march and engage in unrest. In Iraq and elsewhere, Westerners were attacked and taken hostage, and the government was furious at "the press" for behaving so irresponsibly and putting Americans in danger. While investigators concluded that Koran abuse did take place in US prisons, the White House's rage was more centered on journalists' improprieties, not the actual cultural insensitivity itself. Few people in the US government were vocally remorseful about Koran desecration, which probably made matters worse. The Defense Department boasted that we treat prisoners so humanely and they should be lucky to even have personal copies of the Koran, when other countries wouldn't grant such luxuries to inmates. But depriving detainees of religious material or insulting their culture will cause even more backlash against us and hamper our interests in the Middle East. Therefore, it just makes more sense to play good cop for our own benefit, and we shouldn't pretend that we're so gracious to Muslim detainees out of the goodness of our heart.







http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4587679.stm



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4585281.stm



http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4658943







Maybe a lot of Muslims already believe that Westerners hate them, and are just waiting for the "proof" to justify their fears. They're just waiting for the next slip-up to become angry at us, so our only defense is to carefully watch our step until they stop waiting and start believing that we mean them no harm. Sensible people may be able to see through overt propaganda and lies, but we can't reverse their anti-Western hostility if we keep reinforcing it through callous actions against Muslims. Yes, this does require more effort and sensitivity on our part, measures that indignant Western hardliners may be unwilling to endorse. But we can either make the minimal effort to refrain from insulting an entire faith, or keep reading headlines about angry mobs and burning buildings. It's not that difficult, but we really need to choose whether we want to reduce or inflame anti-Western sentiments among Muslim peoples, and then behave accordingly.







FINAL COMMENTS







I recently wrote about the religion of Islam, and unfortunately the contentious points that I alluded to are rearing their ugly heads again. The post-cartoon violence and furor will not be the last incident of Muslim-Western conflict and potential "cultural incompatibility", but what can we do to ameliorate relations and calm emotions?







http://www.adl.org/PresRele/ASUS_12/4444_12.htm



http://www.kcrw.org/cgi-bin/db/kcrw.pl?show_code=tp&air_date=12/23/05&tmplt_type=show



http://mediamatters.org/items/200511100014



http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ideas_opinions/story/261414p-223885c.html







Some Westerners are quite angry because they feel that we must constantly bend over backwards to respect and accommodate Islam or they'll sick suicide bombers on us, while no other creeds or races get such "preferential treatment" (maybe apart from the Jews due to post-Holocaust remorse, and German law even bans hate speech). Religion has inspired many great works over the centuries, but is also a major source of human conflict. After the release of "The Passion of the Christ", some American Jews did worry about anti-Semitism over the negative portrayal of their people. During the recent holiday season, the American Right protested the supposed "War on Christmas", manifested in the use of Happy Holidays/Season's Greetings in the marketplace instead of more religious salutations. Some feel that secularists and liberals hate Christianity and constantly attempt to purge it from American life, even though the USA is about 80% Christian with millions of safe, free places of worship located in every state. Maybe it was a faux-issue geared towards firing up the conservative base and embracing victim complex, as some Muslim groups and governments did to their people during this cartoon controversy. However, prickly Christians really don't have much to fear over debates on intelligent design, prayer in school, and "In God We Trust" on currency. Yes, the battles over abortion and gay marriage may be central to the tenets of their faith, but Muslims are in an entirely different boat. Many Muslims are literally under attack, or at least mistreated like second-class citizens in the West. Some Muslim states are run by corrupt cabals that shame Mohammad's example of leadership. Foreign troops occupy or have strong presence in multiple Muslim nations. And insensitive Western treatment of Islam rears its ugly head in the media every so often. These realities arouse real fears of persecution among Muslims, so naturally they are defensive and oversensitive at times. Some civic and religious leaders are looking for any minor offense to exploit into holy war, because anger and the threat of persecution have always been tremendous motivational tools.







I respect the argument that it betrays our freedom and values if we succumb to self-censorship and the intimidation by others of our unpopular opinions. But self-censorship is different than a plain call for common sense and sensitivity. I know that the political correctness and diversity movements are ridiculous and farfetched at times, but would we prefer the opposite extreme of intolerance and indifference? In the USA, we have a legal right to wear a KKK outfit in Harlem, or park our brand new Mercedes Benz in the bad Hunter's Point neighborhood of San Francisco. But why would we want to? What good purpose would it serve and what could it cost us? What sort of principle are we risking our necks to defend? Some causes are definitely worth fighting and dying for, depending on your values and beliefs – but some "principled stands" are just foolish and reckless.







Well aware of the probable repercussions, the European papers decided to publish clearly offensive content that would cause trauma and humiliation for thousands, if not millions. People in the Middle East who never hurt a Westerner now feel disgraced by them, and the world should pay attention. People who had no prior fight with non-Muslims now have a reason to be upset, insulted, or at least disappointed and suspicious. Is a low class publicity stunt exercising free speech worth this much backlash and negative sentiment? Knowing full well that Muslim extremists love to exacerbate any tension to spark the Islamic world's furor, why would those Europeans take such a risk and stubbornly cling to their narrow agenda? As we see time and time again, the worst conflicts occur between obstinate extremists on both sides who won't back down.







http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/2420305.stm







"Family values" Americans were enraged over Janet Jackson's pasty, yet few raise a finger to oppose the genocide in Darfur. The Vatican and other Christian organizations called for a boycott or repeal of various media from South Park to "The Last Temptation of Christ" due to offensive or blasphemous content, yet it took centuries for them to finally speak out against the Inquisition and Crusades. Yes, it is true that Muslims seem to be the only ones destroying things and killing people over insults to their faith (Northern Ireland notwithstanding). Blowhard Christians in the West may protest offensive media and behavior, but rarely do they harm anyone. Yet their actions do have negative effects on others, and I doubt that Jesus would want his persecuted followers to respond with more bigotry in turn. Many "Christians" have been implicated in hate crimes against gays, including the murder of a homosexual college student and then taunting the mourners at his funeral. It's true that Islam seems to be the only religion that involves mass stampede deaths claiming hundred of pilgrims, or worldwide protests that often result in Muslim riot police killing Muslim dissidents. Within and beyond America's borders, the world can be a brutal place, but that does not mean that we are somehow better than them, or immune to such destructive and hateful actions if forced into extreme situations.







http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/195158.stm



http://www.nbc10.com/news/4077250/detail.html



http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/06/08/christ050608.html







Since the "yelling fire in a crowded theater" argument is plainly obvious, I'll just add one point. Just because we have the right to do something doesn't necessitate that we must do such a thing to celebrate our freedoms. What are the consequences, and is the gain worth it? We are legally entitled to patronize brothels in Nevada or start a hate website, but we don't need to if there's no good reason and the expenses are great (economic, moral, and human costs alike). We cannot use the law to shield us from bad behavior, especially when others will suffer as a result. As many pro-war Americans claim, freedom isn't free. You pay a price if you exercise your freedoms in questionable ways. Some might think that the US media's hesitance to show the controversial cartoons is a capitulation to the Muslim extremists and gangs of destructive thugs. That is possible, but from another angle it's just the smarter thing to do.







I hope you believe that we can still be true to ourselves and coexist with Muslims. We don't have to live in a bunker in fear of Islam, but there's nothing wrong with treading lightly when needed. The Spanish felt that it was a greater risk to continue their support of the Iraq War and incur terrorist reprisals, so they withdrew and haven't been attacked since. The USA and others do not approve of Iran's nuclear programs, but it's a greater cost to invade rather than pursue peaceful coercion, so we choose not to wage war. Just because we can do a thing doesn't mean we must do that thing. So if the choice is: insult Muslims and incur violent backlash, or behave politely and coexist peacefully, then it's a no-brainer. Surely it's not that simple, but it's a positive starting point. US mainstream media (minus Fox News) constantly check themselves to avoid offensive, inaccurate content, because one gaffe can cost millions and end careers. Maybe we take it too far, and maybe the Europeans are too explicit. Unfortunately, many Muslims are hypersensitive, overreacting, and easily manipulated by hate-mongers. Surely we must work to spread awareness and mitigate cultural hostility, but we should also respect that they act out often for good reason.







So if we can save lives and reduce discontent by not publishing or condemning derogatory media with minimal artistic or intellectual merit, I think it's a fair trade. Again, it is mostly up to us. If we're tired of singing this tune, then we must be fair and respectful if we expect fairness and respect in return. We should work to curb religious extremism and inflammatory content everywhere, whether in Tennessee or Tehran. This is not a call for repression and censorship, because the use of force and the law has its limitations. But if we can raise the dignity of discourse in the public sphere, reduce homegrown religious hypocrisy/sensationalism, and improve our rapport with the Middle East – that is half the battle. When we celebrate diversity yet make irresponsible, dangerous behavior socially unacceptable, hopefully the Muslim world will follow suit.
 
----------
 
My roommate actually happens to be Danish so it was interesting


talking to him about this stuff. Actually, he hates Denmark so he

thinks the Danes deserve the protests, embassy fires and whatnot.

But, he told me some hot Israeli chick came up to him and

complimented him on being Danish. A couple of quick points here.

I do not believe these cartoons would ever have seen the light of

day in the US (not in a mainstream newspaper anyways). Every

editor would have caught it, and DECIDED not to print it.



On this front, we need to be aware that there is a difference

between the US and Europe. Despite all the negative situations,

the US is still way better about immigration than any country in

Europe. Most of the American venom is targeted towards hating

black people. As I heard a speaker put it recently, "every

immigrant group is temporarily black in the US." The Eastern Euros

went through it, so did the Southern Euros, as did the the Chinese

and the Latinos are going through it now. So, of course the Danish

newspaper was baiting the Muslim population, but they were given an

implicit green light by discrimination in the population.



While I agree with your assessment of the Islamic religion,

unfortunately religion and practice are completely different

things. Let's face facts, if Krishna or Moses had been

caricatured, Danish embassies would not be burning in India or

Israel. Fundamentalism is particularly strong and has been merged

with political purpose in the Islamic movements.



So, in some sense, this is an utterly predictable situation.

Europeans hate Muslims, and the Muslim population is more

reactionary than most other populations. This impasse can only

occur when both conditions are present (or when the Western power

actively engages in suppressing Muslim populations as the US does).

The easiest way to get rid of the situation, then, is to build

restraint into the European system. The EU, and its rules, would

go a long way to making this come true. The funny thing is that

there isn't an analyst, academic or streetwalker that doesn't

realize that if the EU could come to fruition it would totally

dominate the world within 10 years of creation (much bigger economy

than the US with better social programming). But the Europeans hate

everyone else too much.



So, in summation, while the Muslim population is reactionary the

real problem lies with the Europeans (the French are THE WORST on

this front...hence the riots). I don't believe this is about

Americans or Christians (although in Lebanon hatred was directed at

those groups as well), it is about Europeans.



They need to get their act together.
 
------------
 
Well put and thanks for your comments. Yes I agree; Europe and the US deal with immigrants and Islam very differently. While we actively bomb them from time to time, the Euros prefer latent or overt domestic discrimination I suppose. Of course Britain is seen as more tolerant of diversity yet complicit in US/Israeli aggression in the Middle East. Actually on NPR a guest commented that Chirac is the most popular European leader to Muslims because France vehemently opposed the Iraq War. I don't know if those sentiments have changed after the French riots, but Chirac wasn't really seen as the source of Muslim "persecution" versus hardliners like Le Pen and Sarkozy. Actually Chirac and de Villepin were calling for more outreach and social work for discontent or impoverished immigrants to quell the anger.




As you said, in the US it's a "black-white thing", and in Europe it's an immigrant-indigenous issue. America has been a land of immigrants, and despite the tragic relations with Native Americans and black slaves in particular, US immigrants are forced to get along with each other. Surely older immigrants like the Irish and Poles still beat down on recent immigrants like Mexicans and Hmong. But many economic sectors have been very mutlicultural (especially science, and even organized crime and the Confederate leadership, as you told me!), because Americans are still united in the pursuit of wealth, glory, and Manifest Destiny. Since Europe is a lot more micro-ethnically diverse and still grapples with the legacies of colonialism, the situation is very different. Immigrants and refugees came to America, while Europeans exported their settlers, armed forces, and culture (plus deadly diseases) all over the place. Very rarely did colonized people settle to Europe prior to WWII. Like our Jared Diamond conversation, they're used to "cultivating primitive cultures" abroad, and not familiar with absorbing minorities or diverse peoples within their borders. Europeans have never really accepted Jews, Gypsies, Moors, or other Diaspora people, and still there is tension over Basques, Corsicans, Northern Ireland Catholics, and other agitators/separatists. Recent Muslim immigrants are an even stiffer shock to the system, since they're entering European cities at a faster rate and larger quantities than ever before (and they're absolutely vital economically, despite their low education/employment rates).



Europeans like their cultures and their way of life, as they should (hence the "non" votes to the EU Constitution that attempts to render their economy more American). Our heritage is worth defending, but of course it's not perfect and changes must come (like the reduction of prejudice). Surely many Euros believe that Muslim immigrants should learn to act like them and assimilate, rather than "bending over backwards" to accommodate foreigners and all their cultural idiosyncrasies (the US backlash against illegal Latino immigration echoes these sentiments somewhat). Why should they don religious attire in our secular schools? Why should they refuse to learn our language and eat our foods? Diversity has different connotations on each side of the Atlantic. Of course satire and caustic free speech are also European traditions. As you said, no mainstream American media source would have touched those cartoons with a ten-foot pole. Self-censorship, "for shame" knee-jerk reactions, and pandering to pollsters are rampant in American media compared to Europe. Just look at the BBC versus CNN, sexual content and profanity in mainstream entertainment, and official political discourse. Brave journalists in Russia face death to criticize Putin, yet the Democrats barely utter a peep after Bush's ridiculous State of the Union speech. Of course violence is quite prevalent in US culture, and we have to commend Fox News for their comfort with offensive, opinionated rhetoric. So Europeans are accustomed to being inflammatory, irreverent, and rarely take things personally. Unfortunately, they expect others to be similarly nonchalant, which is rarely the case in the Middle East. When I think of Muslim nations, empathy and temperance don't really come to mind. The American mainstream is thin-skinned, religious, and short fused compared to Europe's. The lower-income, uneducated, and fundamentalist elements of Muslim society are even worse. But really can we blame them, considering the harsh environments in which they exist? Arab-Muslim fundamentalism only developed in response to Western colonization and economic exploitation in the region.







So yes, it seems that Muslims overreact regarding religious insults a lot worse than people of other faiths. Few Christians or others would burn embassies to avenge an offense, but with mouthpieces like Falwell and Roberson, we can't be so sure. Is it worse for an ignorant mob to torch a building, or an educated, wealthy ideologue with massive audience reach to claim that Sharon is dying because of god's punishment over Gaza? People like them are the embarrassing Western equivalent of Ahmadinejad. But as you said, the rage is more sociopolitical than spiritual. Despite our fetish for capital punishment and weapons ownership, Americans rarely resolve domestic disputes with violence. Surely we have nasty tongues and our foreign policy is quite brutal at times, but our society is fairly peaceful and orderly versus the rest of the world. Of course this is the case, because we won – we're the last superpower! Our "culture" may be violent, but our social institutions are not (minus the unfortunate souls at the mercy of law enforcement and penal system). But in the Muslim world, Sharia law manifests itself in some very gruesome ways among fundamentalists and the ignorant. Therefore violence is institutionalized in the Islamic world. It's "righteous" or "justified" to resolve adultery with stoning, theft with the removal of a finger, or Islamic blasphemy with Jihad. This is terribly generalized, and plenty of Muslims people/leaders denounce suicide bombing and honor killings, as well as the call for calm and sanity after the cartoon row. But whether they like it our not, some of their ruling parties and religious leaders endorse such harsh behaviors as part of god's will and social decorum, in their view.







So probably everyday Muslims have more of a penchant to respond to insults/challenges with violence for retribution. We responded to 9/11 with violence against others who had nothing to do with the attack, but when cooler heads prevail, the USA can be a just and humane nation. After the tragic experiences of the World Wars, Europeans are very slow to anger and violence. Gun ownership is prohibited or vastly curtailed in most nations, and capital punishment is totally nonexistent (apart from Belarus). Only France, UK, and Russia have nuclear weapons, and Europe's cumulative defense spending and incidence of violent crime are minimal compared to America's. Surely they export a ton of weapons to Third World hotspots, but domestically they are very civil and nonviolent. They are much more careful and metered with their responses, preferring negotiation and analysis instead of brash actions like certain American cowboy leaders. That being said, it really puzzles me why Europeans treat immigrants so harshly. Maybe it's the legacies of colonialism again, like the conflicts with the IRA, Algerians, and Yugoslavians. They have to know that despair, anger, and unrest will eventually haunt them to avenge their unjust practices. Maybe their national-cultural pride precludes their ability to treat immigrants better. But for a continent that has spurned violence and injustice so well as so rapidly after WWII (the most terrible ethno-nationlistic conflict in human history), they should know better. You're right – they need to clean up their act and show the world what the EU stands for.







I think Muslims are tired of being labeled as barbarian and terrorists. They are tired of being disrespected and treated unequally by us. Most people in the West forget that modern Muslim fanatics evolved and intensified in direct response to the West. Our military-economic activities in the region have engendered much of the backlash, extremism, and fundamentalist reactionaries. The Mohammad cartoons only add fuel to the fires, especially because many in the West are so obstinate and unrepentant about the controversy. The Danish paper refused to back down, and Kopenhagen declined to engage in a dialogue with Muslim leaders to assuage the conflict. Westerners seem more concerned with the defense of free speech rather than rectifying one of the most egregious, blasphemous depictions of Mohammad in mainstream society. Fringe elements push offensive, disgusting, and useless content all the time on the Web and other media. But now a billion plus followers have to see their prophet depicted as impudently as Daffy Duck, even with a bomb on his head.







Surely the violent response, economic embargoes, and whatnot are counter-productive by the Muslim world, but angry people don't think very rationally. Unless you're Jesus or Buddha, when you are wronged you want to hurt someone else. Would the Muslim leaders rather have their followers at their throats if they didn't respond with enough fury at the West? Some agitators are playing to the crowd or inciting the mobs, some figures are reasonably upset and demand recompense, but some leaders are just caving to the anger and getting the protesters off their backs. So the whole shit-storm is out of control, and the Muslim world and Europe have reached an impasse, as you said. Maybe relations will deteriorate before they improve, if ever. Unfortunately, the USA is viewed as Europe's keeper, and we've committed our share of improprieties in the Middle East. So we're thrown into the mix even further, since we're already seen as an extension of Israel. The Bush White House offered token, vague condemnations of culturally insensitive content, but was much quicker to condemn the protests and reactionary violence (it's never the West's fault and always the Muslims'). Chirac and many other leaders denounced the cartoons and all hateful content, since they don't want to jeopardize their citizens abroad and permit the fires to spread to their backyards too.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4693628.stm



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4691878.stm







But of course American conservatives are angry at Bush and the other "capitulators" for not taking a stronger stand for "free speech" in defense of Denmark, Western values, and in opposition of radical Islam's intimidation and violent tendencies against us.







http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060208/pl_afp/europeislammediaus_060208183556

Thursday, March 11, 2010

More on teacher firings and education reform

And I guess Obama is not the only dumbass on the issue:




http://www.newsweek.com/id/234590



Newsweek had a cover story on teacher firings too, but missed the big picture. I was disappointed by the writers' narrow perspective. Bad teachers are a problem for US education, but not the only problem. What about bloated school district bureaucracies, ineffective and overpaid administrators (who are also rarely fired), declining of family time, and sociopolitical apathy to explore more sophisticated remedies than standardized testing?



The Obama administration and Newsweek praised the mass firings at Central Falls, RI. The teachers were being unreasonable, but it is not "bold" and "courageous" leadership for Superintendant Gallo to just give up and fire them. That is terribly traumatic for students, erodes community trust, and destroys the morale of good teachers with decades of professional wisdom. The finger-pointers should first remodel crumbling classrooms, help overwhelmed families, reduce poverty, and develop smarter ways to measure and enhance teaching performance. Then if learning doesn't improve, go ahead and fire the teachers.



Newsweek praised the European model where teachers are cherry-picked from top college grads, paid better vs. other professions, and more culturally respected. They say that many US teachers come from the bottom third of college-bound high schoolers, and once they reach tenure (fought for by unions in the past), they are virtually immune to firing regardless of performance. Yes this could be a problem. Well how do they propose changing our culture and economics to pay teachers more and celebrate the profession so our top people want to join? If our brightest stars hear in the media about mass teacher layoffs/firings (either due to NCLB or bankrupt governments), horrible teaching conditions (including school shootings), and now possiblying doing away with tenure and pension, then why would all but the most masochistic/saintly/both of them want to sign up? Blaming teachers is like blaming the fireman for a burning building. The fireman may have failed to save the kitten inside, but they didn't start the fire either.



So Europe has it all figured out, and our system is broken just because tenured teachers can't be fired. But Newsweek failed to consider that teacher firings in Europe are also probably very low. I couldn't find data on it, but in general it's a lot harder to get fired in Western Europe than the US. You can argue that the average European teacher is better anyway, so it's less likely that he or she would be in danger of termination. But because of job security, resources, and social support, European teachers are more likely to succeed. If you've spoken to anyone who grew up in a European education system, they will tell you that most students were well behaved and it was easy to enforce discipline. The thought of talking back to authority figures or goofing off never crossed their minds, and if they did, they knew punishment would be severe. That's like the polar opposite of many US schools, especially poor urban ones. So it's a positive feedback loop: European teachers start good, are well taken care of, and work with polite kids. So that makes it easy for them to succeed and make their students learn better, which precludes the need to fire anyone. US teachers in poor schools may be inferior, but they also have shit to work with, and are now one test score away from a pink slip. They're set up for failure. You can't chop off a marathon runner's leg and then scold him for not finishing the race.



And then Newsweek hailed the Teach for America (TFA, which I just found out is co-sponsored by Goldman Sachs - BIG RED FLAG) program for showing that top college grads sent to the worst schools can do better than their tenured underperforming peers, and some of them decide to pursue a career in education. But it's not all wine and roses; many drop out or leave the program jaded about education. Others join for their own benefit, gaining "skills and experience" to distinguish themselves from other qualified job applicants:

Looking back, I’m so glad I chose to teach before embarking on this next phase of my career. I developed skills that empowered me to excel beyond my peers in business school: organization, effective time management, dexterity in communication and public speaking, and the ability to think on my feet. The responsibilities I shouldered in the classroom prepared me like nothing else could for the challenges of management, communication, and intense focus that characterize my current position, where I conduct industry research, create financial models, identify industry trends, and explain their implications.

-Scott, an analyst at Lehman Brothers (taken from the TFA website)

Wow, I guess dealing with punk kids helped him navigate the shark-infested waters of Wall Street. The sad irony of TFA is that they accept applicants with no teaching background, throw them in the worst teaching situations possible, and for the ones who survive and succeed, their program ends just as they start to learn the skills to become good career teachers. Then they're off to their next gig, leaving their kids behind for a new idealistic greenhorn. TFA doesn't require or help alums to pursue a Master's in Education after they finish, which is required to teach in most states. So is this helpful to kids? A lot of TFA teachers went to New Orleans after Katrina and performed better than local teachers. But this created resentment, because people knew the TFAs would be gone in a few years, while the permanent local teachers were losing morale playing second fiddle. In fact, the local veterans helped teach the TFAs, and gained nothing from them, except a bunch of competitors with different life situations making it impossible to work as hard as them. One view of the TFAs is that they're actually young, underpaid, ambitious union busters disguised by philanthropy. Throwing TFAs into disaster schools is no better than throwing sacks of rice to Haiti quake victims. A temporary helpful relief, but no lasting impact. This is from a very well-written New York City Teaching Fellow's blog (a program similar to TFA):

At my school, a small public high school in Brooklyn, New York, well over half of the teachers at the school are Teaching Fellows, and, at least in the three years I have been at the school, the longest any of us has stayed (yet) is three years. A few of us are starting our fourth.

And this sucks for our students. I mean, it really, really sucks. It sucks to come back to school and have to have yet another first-year-teacher as a teacher. It sucks to have six different advisory teachers in four years (the case with my old advisory). It sucks to have no continuity from year to year. It sucks for the ninth grade math teacher you really liked to disappear by the time you are in eleventh grade and wanted to ask for some extra help before the PSATs. It sucks to slowly get the impression that teaching anywhere else, or doing anything else for a job is better than staying here and working with you. It sucks to get abandoned year after year after year by young, enthusiastic teachers who saw teaching in the inner city as something great to put on that law school application.

If you’re thinking of applying to Teach for America because you want to be a career teacher, don’t. There are many other alternative-certification programs that will help you get a masters degree (and will help you pay for it). And if you’re thinking of applying to Teach for America because you are interested in doing a service project for two years before starting a different career, don’t. There are many other Americorp-type programs that lend themselves better to that time of time-frame.

And a TFA participant's response to her blog:

Right on, and well said... TFA brings young, often incredibly privileged, enthusiastic teachers to come into schools feeling a self-righteous sense of martyrdom. We often end up fostering an expectation in our schools that a) all teachers should be able and willing to, for example, work for 15 hour days without demanding pay (which is fundamentally union busting, in the sense that many teachers who are veterans may have families or second jobs that prevent them from being able to put in that much time without pay), b) essentially “price out” veteran teachers, because new teachers come in being paid less than veteran teachers – which public schools and the public education system loves, and c) often end up becoming principals after only 2 or 3 years in teaching, over far more qualified veteran teachers who didn’t go through such “prestigious” programs.

If TFA is truly trying to eradicate educational inequality, then you would think that the goal of TFA would be to phase out, or not be necessary anymore, at some point in the future. But think about it this way: does Goldman-Sachs usually partner with or invest in something that is going to go away anytime soon? Hell no.

http://www.feministe.us/blog/archives/2008/08/23/why-i-hate-teach-for-america/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/diane-ravitch/first-lets-fire-all-the-t_b_483074.html