Tuesday, December 21, 2010

How Washington treats it heroes during the holidays

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-december-16-2010/9-11-first-responders-react-to-the-senate-filibuster

As you probably know, it's been almost a decade since 9/11, and the NYC first responders are still fighting to get health care compensation for the multitude of illnesses likely caused or exacerbated by the toxic dust when the towers fell. This predicament was also described in Michael Moore's "Sicko". Obama and the Congressional Dems are working on a bill that would provide no-cost care to them for 10 years, but of course the GOP senators are blocking it to prevent a moral victory for their rivals during this unusually productive lame duck session. Many of the responders have private insurance, but the copays for respiratory diseases and cancers are of course still significant. And worker's comp won't cover them because they can't medically prove that their conditions were 100% caused by work activities. But forget these technicalities and excuses. Yes it's expensive to care for them, but what message are we sending if we turn our backs on the first responders, people who risked everything to help their fellow man during a disaster that was not of their doing? And it's even worse when our gov't is to blame for partially creating/training Al Qaeda, failing to prevent the attack, and now ignoring the health needs of the people who were sent in to clean up their mess. Heck they weren't even sent, they went in willingly because that's who they are.

Helping the responders wouldn't be unprecedented, and it seems like a no-brainer to the rest of us. Dialysis is so expensive and life-extending that the Nixon admin. approved Medicaid to cover any American who needs it (this was America's first experiment with socialized medicine). US servicepeople who were exposed to Agent Orange in Vietnam are covered for various diseases related to the toxin (unfortunately the Vietnamese, many of whom fought on our side and were exposed in much greater number/magnitude, are not included). So why not cover the 9/11 heroes? The GOP defends its filibuster by saying that they don't have the time to handle the issue now, and it would be "disrespectful" to their families, the institution of Congress, and the Christmas tradition if they kept working this week. I think Mrs. McCain and McConnell will survive if hubby is out of town for a few more days. And what better way to celebrate the birth of the Prince of Peace than to show compassion to hundreds of Good Samaritans in need? As you can see, it's just BS. The GOP threatened to shut down Congress unless the Bush tax cuts were extended, but they won't sacrifice an hour of their holiday vacation for people who showed us the best of what America is, and paid the price. Of course Jon Stewart was the only media source to cover this issue. 

http://www.npr.org/2010/12/20/132145959/pentagon-health-plan-wont-cover-brain-damage-therapy-for-troops

Another problem is the VA's Tricare insurance coverage for "cognitive rehabilitation" for war veterans with the common condition of TBI (often the result of insurgent IED and mortar attacks). Depending on how you diagnose, 5 to 60 thousand soldiers and vets may have TBI. CR therapy is quite expensive ($50k per patient), but it has been scientifically shown to improve functionality and quality of life in the civilian sector (car accident victims, stroke, etc.). In some cases, patients were unable to even read or speak full sentences before therapy, but regained those critical skills after. It is a personalized, holistic, unorthodox treatment, so of course some in the medical and health care policy communities are skeptical, and it doesn't really fit the VA bureaucracy classifications. But when 5 of the 12 major private insurers cover CR, there is likely some medical benefit. When Obama was a senator (and presidential hopeful) in 2008, he and 69 other Congressmen wrote to Tricare urging them to cover CR: "Given the prevalence of TBI among returning service personnel, it is difficult to comprehend why the military's managed health care plan does not cover the very therapies that give our soldiers the best opportunities to recover and live full and productive lives." Now a spokesman for Obama said that the president has "no comment" on the issue, and his Defense Sec. Gates is also not explicitly supportive, since they are leading an effort to cut Pentagon costs to get the deficit hawks off their backs (vet health care is a major gov't expenditure as my tax email showed). So Tricare is playing all sorts of games, saying the data is inconclusive, or they should wait until the therapy is proven so they know they're not doing more harm than good.

We criticize the Muslim militants for brainwashing youth to become suicide bombers, or the Soviet Union for sending in soldiers to clean up Chernobyl protected only by a 50 cents dust mask, but considering these failures, are we doing much better? If we keep ignoring and abusing patriots after they sacrifice everything for what the gov't tells them is their duty, America will eventually run out of patriots (or turn off future patriots) and we'll be a much weaker nation as a result. The gov't can't take their loyalty for granted, and we waste such precious resources at our own peril. Maybe we should consider all these costs the next time we engage in military adventurism. With all this talk about gov't living within our means, then we shouldn't fight a war we can't afford, especially when our survival and our allies are not in immediate peril. And is money really the issue if maintenance costs for our bloated nuclear arsenal (in the tens of billions, and the GOP refuses to reduce it to START Treaty recommendations, fighting Obama on yet another irrational front) would easily pay for cognitive rehab and 9/11 responder care for life?

Friday, December 10, 2010

More on taxes and unemployment

Well, the WSJ is totally correct that extending unemployment will keep official unemployment higher than cutting it, but for a far more cynical reason.  We use U3 unemployment as the measure of official unemployment, and to qualify as unemployed under U3 a person has to be actively searching for a job.  There are plenty of folks who are only nominally looking for jobs: doing it because it's a requirement to collect the unemployment benefits.  If you cut the unemployment benefits, they'll no longer have a reason to search for a job, and they'll stop.  As soon as they cease looking for employment they cease to be counted in U3 unemployment.  Voila, lower official unemployment!
The fact that we use U3 unemployment as the measure of official unemployment fairly dramatically understates the actual labor slack in the economy.  Looking at a measure like U6 (which is U3 unemployment plus people who've stopped seeking work for economic reasons, people who would like a job but haven't looked recently, and people who are working part-time for economic reasons but want to work full-time), that measure of unemployment is up around 17%.  And the spread has increased.  3 years ago U3 was 4.7% and U6 was 8.5%.  Today it's 9.8% and 17.0%.  It's a lot easier to tell people they should care about austerity and so forth when you can claim unemployment is 9.8% than if you have to acknowledge it's at 17%.

Also, a pretty good graph of the effect of different kinds of economic stimulus, from Moody's a couple years ago when they were looking at this stuff the first time around: http://motherjones.com/files/legacy/news/feature/2009/01/bang-for-the-buck.jpg
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Very true, thanks J. Yeah U3 is a pretty limited metric and doesn't capture real labor market conditions. I don't know why more economists and politicians don't cite the U6 data - that should shock anyone that almost 1 out of 5 able-bodied people can't find work or can't find enough work. That's about 25.5M people, and many more if you include dependents. That is a critical mass for voting leverage. Well, the unemployment rate among white collar workers is quite a bit lower, and if they and the retired are doing most of the voting, well then we know what kind of economic policies we'll get.

"Managers and college grads still are more likely to be working than Americans overall. The unadjusted unemployment rate hit 8.5% in January, compared with 4.1% for management and professional workers and 3.8% for college graduates." (I'm assuming these %s are based on U3 from 2009).

http://www.jsonline.com/business/39650377.html

Haha, so all the tax cuts that the GOP loves (dividends/cap gains, Bush cuts, corporate cuts) deliver the least bang for buck, while all the spending they want to cut (food stamps, unemployment) are the best. When will America wake up to this? Good job to the GOP governors who refused stimulus money for infrastructure projects and such (and often those red states are the ones with the weakest economies and most crumbling infrastructure, like Gov. Jindal's Louisiana). Yeah it's totally ridiculous that companies get to report accelerated depreciation to the IRS but use more conservative depreciation measures for SEC filings. So they pay less tax and appear more profitable to shareholders?

http://www.npr.org/2010/12/09/131940665/Sen-Alexander-Tax-Deal-Will-Create-Jobs

NPR was interviewing #3 GOP Senator Alexander yesterday (who sits on the Appropriations, Budget, Health/Labor Cmtes. so he should understand this stuff) about the tax cut deal, and the host kept prodding him to explain why it's justified that high earners get a tax cut, and in fact a disproportionately expensive cut vs. lower earners (1/4 of the amount goes to the richest 1% of Americans). Instead of an intelligent response, he parroted the cliche "We are trying to create jobs and you don't raise taxes on anyone during a recession." Then why did they oppose Obama's stimuli, which included tax breaks for businesses that hire new workers? Isn't that better than giving every rich person money even if they don't preserve/create a single job?

He also stressed that this was not a tax cut, since the taxes are currently low but are scheduled to increase. So letting the cuts expire would actually be a tax hike (I guess if the Dems let the cuts expire, the GOP plans to blast them for "raising taxes"). But that is ridiculous logic. It was a temporary tax holiday all along (since Bush and the GOP in 2000 didn't have the votes to make it permanent); the regular tax rate is the higher one. That's like me taking a vacation from work, and when I return, I complain to my boss that he's increasing my hours! I guess Alexander realized that he couldn't give a good answer to the question, so might as well kill the conversation with some misdirection. He is a lawyer after all.

It's just sad to see Obama and Summers defending this tax cut BS so fervently, and to their fellow Dems to boot. I don't really blame Obama for his actions considering the circumstances, but stop trying to polish a turd. They are actually saying that if we extend the tax cuts, we'll certainly avoid a double-dip recession. I guess the GOP isn't the only party engaged in fear-mongering.

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I think the attached chart pretty much lays out the answer to your question as to why there's such intense pressure to ditch the unemployment insurance and extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy. (as you might imagine, education and income are pretty highly correlated)

I was just reading a paper the other day about how much more pro-poor the US would be if elections were held on the weekends (most poor people can't get off time to go vote on weekdays like high-income people can). It's no surprise that the most conservative states often have the shortest voting hours and the most onerous voting registration requirements.

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Thx, A. I wonder why community organizers don't try to mobilize the urban poor more during elections. Maybe since most cities vote liberal anyway, and minorities/lower income folks are more likely to be Dems, less of a need? I know there were allegations of people getting packed into buses from the ghetto and whisked to the polling stations, but I'm not sure if it was just propaganda, and also not sure if there's anything wrong with that.

As you said, our voting system is the most inaccessible of all modern, developed democracies. In France I believe the window to vote is several days if not weeks, India too (due to people living in remote areas maybe). In other nations voting occurs on weekends or national holidays. There is absolutely no damn reason to have an election on a work day, especially when the working poor can't get paid time off and may work 12 hours a day over multiple jobs. Plus in other nations there isn't so much red tape for registering. In many cases a voter can "register" (or whatever equivalent) on election day. Hell, even in Iraq the polls stay open Fri-Sun. But all those scenes of Americans waiting in lines all day to vote in inner-city areas is just unacceptable. Voting shouldn't be such a sacrifice, unless the system is designed to prevent those people from participating. Making voting nearly impossible for the lower class is one thing, but how do we control the influence of the rich in politics? The 1st Amend. seems to protect an individual, org, or corporation's "right" to basically contribute limitless cash to political causes, and the Supreme Court seemed to affirm that last year.

In Australia and Belgium (among others), voting is mandatory with small fines for absentees. Maybe that wouldn't fly here, but I know Arizona passed a bill to include a cash lottery as incentive to get people to the polls. We'll see how effective it will be. I wonder if even mail-in or online/phone voting would help the poor that much (Wikipedia says internet voting is already in place in the UK, France, and Switzerland, but I haven't been following that). Oregon, which has a fully mail-in voting system, is slightly better than the US average for turnout (US avg. for 2008 pres. election was 62%, OR was 67%).

http://www.slate.com/id/2108832/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout#International_differences
http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/us/17voter.html?ex=1310788800&en=9626060428eeb1ed&ei=5088

Thursday, December 9, 2010

More on the tax compromise

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20101209/ts_yblog_thelookout/jobless-benefits-cut-unemployment-rate-fed-economist-confirms

More data to refute the GOP's BS economic beliefs. Of course the GOP and conservative WSJ/Bloomberg Businessweek used Fed data to calculate that if Obama's request to extend unemployment benefits goes through, it will result in 0.4-0.8% higher unemployment during the duration of coverage vs. if the benefits expired. We know that "handouts" are disincentives to find work. But there is another side of the coin. The Fed study's authors state that a "second stimulus" is created due to unemployment benefits, but I guess the sophisticated business press overlooked it. The recipients are more likely to stay afloat (thereby averting some of the social costs of unemployment), and they are very likely to spend most or all of their benefits to survive, which injects more cash into the economy, which in turns spurs investment, hiring, growth, and deficit reduction (all the things that the GOP claims their policies promote). The Fed estimates that some 700,000 new jobs can be created from the benefits being spent. Spending by people on unemployment will also trickle to small business owners who are not eligible for unemployment insurance, and therefore depend on revenues to keep their operations going, so it's fairly egalitarian. Unemployment assistance is as big of a win-win as you can find these days, yet of course that is precisely what the GOP opposes and wants to cut. Why anyone who earns less than $150K/year and isn't an extremist Christian would support the GOP these days is beyond me. I'm not saying we all should be Dems, but at least quit the party that doesn't give a shit about you and all the hard-working, honest folks who are getting crushed by economic forces out of their control.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2010/12/tax_cuts

Also, those on unemployment benefits will probably spend all of their assistance because it is only a fraction of their former salaries, and they may have already been living month-to-month even while fully employed. Changing gears a bit, the poor spend all of their tax credits, and then some (according to this Economist piece), because they often don't own real estate and have less incentive/ability to save. Remember in 2008 how Dubya gave a $300 stimulus check to each taxpayer, regardless of income? The poor (earning <$32K) increased their spending by $384 on average, and the rich (earning >$75K, though in parts of America $75K is hardly rich) increased by only $231. So that means the economy gets more help from aid to the poor than to the rich. And the rich will get theirs anyway, since extra spending by the poor will improve earnings, dividends, and stock values for the consumer firms that the rich own/invest in. The rich may not even notice the extra bit in their paychecks, and it's such a small fraction of their disposable income anyway, so they just pocket it or let it earn an investment return. Ironically, the middle earners (between the 2 groups) spent even less of the stimulus. The author hypothesizes that this is due to many middle class Americans having mortgages and credit card debt that they would rather help pay off than spend on new purchases (I think there were news reports on this at the time). But still, that is economically sound because it reduces their risk of foreclosure, dings to their credit rating, and wasted money on exorbitant interest rates. We get the least bang for our buck by helping the rich, which is pretty much obvious to everyone but 41 senators it seems.

I see now that the Dems are revolting against Obama's tax compromise and are crafting new legislation in response. I understand some of the anger against Obama, but the real culprit is the abuse of the filibuster. I know they don't have the votes for filibuster reform either (and the Dems may not want to take that weapon off the table, because they are bound to be the Senate minority many more times in the future), but at least point the finger at the right culprit.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

We don't negotiate with terrorists, unless they're GOP senators

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/06/opinion/06krugman.html?_r=4&ref=opinion
http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201012070900

I'm sure you've heard the news about the Obama Bush tax cut compromise deal. A neutral reporter on NPR commented on the deal saying that it seems the Republicans did not want to extend tax cuts to anyone until the rich got theirs. Obama likened it to holding the nation hostage. In his national press conference, Obama said that government shouldn't negotiate with hostage takers, but the game changes when the hostage (low to middle class America) is in imminent danger. Obama didn't want to let middle class tax cuts and unemployment benefits expire, so he acquiesced to the GOP and is urging his party to endorse the GOP plan to extend all the Bush tax cuts, even for above-$250,000-per-year earners (about 2% of Americans). The situation is further complicated by the GOP senators' threats to kill all legislation in the lame duck session until the tax cuts are extended, because they know the Dems are desperate to get things passed in December before they lose the House. It's possible that Obama agreed to the tax deal because the GOP will make concessions in other areas, but I'm not holding my breath. All this mess in Washington makes Afghanistan look like an easy problem.

But really, what is an inexperienced pragmatist who just took a political drubbing to do? We know that the Dems currently in power can appear politically clueless to the public, and the party mostly just avoids or bungles up the message war. We know that Washington today is not like the times of LBJ when a strong leader could kick some butt behind closed doors to keep the flock in line. And we know Obama is not that type of leader anyway, even if it would work. But maybe campaign concerns about his lack of executive experience and deferential leadership style were not unfounded. From the progressive perspective, Obama has whiffed on Afghanistan, Gitmo, health care, Wall Street reform, immigration, and Don't Ask Don't Tell. He's also failed to maintain the dominant status of his party in Washington. Heck, he froze pay for many already underpaid federal employees to cut spending, yet agreed to let the rich keep more of their money? What is this guy doing? Of course all of that wasn't 100% his fault, but it occurred under his watch, and he hasn't been the inspirational leader to the left that he was in 2008. Plus all the say-this-do-that is confusing and frustrating voters: Obama dissed Wall Street excess but refused to cap CEO pay, promoted the public option then said it's wasn't critical, etc. The left has plenty of reason to be disappointed with Obama and the party. He already lost the independents according to the recent election, and this may be the last straw for disgruntled liberal voters (there's even talk of Obama having a Dem primary challenge in 2012, but that's unlikely since it would basically signal a surrender to the GOP). Really, what was he to do on the tax cuts?

His advisers told him that letting the middle class cuts expire would be politically risky, and the GOP would paint it as Obama "raising taxes" in a recession. He's already paranoid after the mid-terms of being seen as a tax-and-spend guy. And maybe he does really care about the struggling families who may depend on the extra bucks in their pockets from these programs. But does he think that moderates and independents will like him again because he cut their taxes a few Benjamins? As Krugman's article described, a CBO study concluded that unemployment would rise only 0.1-0.3% if Obama let ALL the tax cuts expire. The poor have the least to lose from Bush tax cuts expiring, and they have many other more serious financial troubles to worry about. It's still rolling the dice for thousands of people in this already troubled labor market, but maybe it's better than caving to "terrorists" and setting a dangerous precedent. We don't negotiate with terrorists because that sends the message that terrorism works and it's okay to use abominable methods to get what you want. The other side will play ball. Next year with Speaker Boehner and the gang of filibuster-happy GOP senators (plus plenty of easily-influenced noob Tea Party legislators), what's to prevent them from threatening Obama again? Clinton caved under Gingrich's government shutdown and transferred the burden of welfare from DC to the states (any wonder many states are in the red now?), and that was during a good economy. What will Obama do when the GOP wants to slash welfare and other programs further in 2011, because they're supposedly such fiscally responsible folks? Yes I know welfare and unemployment benefits are economically problematic because they create a disincentive to find new work, but cutting people off overnight is not the way to fix things either.

Krugman argued that Obama should call the GOP bluff and not budge on the tax cuts. I know the Congressional Dems were working on a new bill to extend the cuts only for the middle class, so he should have dared the GOP to block it (maybe they did already?). And why not fight fire with fire? If they are threatening to block everything, Reid should fire back that the Dems aren't going to include the GOP in any future negotiations, and Obama will veto all GOP-sponsored bills. Does a parent indulge her child's tantrum, or shame and discipline him instead? Bush circumvented Congress with record use of executive orders and other devices - why can't Obama do the same? Maybe he should wake up and not "stay the course"; coalition and consensus building is over. Force and push things through now because the nation needs it. His re-election is already in jeopardy, so what more is there to lose? Bottom line, don't let the GOP get away with this conduct. It's bad for Obama, his party, and the future of America. Or if this is how the game is going to be played, there's no reason the GOP should have exclusive right to misbehave. Fire right back and cut off programs close to the GOP's frozen hearts (defense projects, aid to Israel, corporate subsidies, etc.). Stop living in the dream world where politics are civil and cooperation is possible.

Maybe in the end this will be a good thing for the Dems (hear me out). Now they've taken away the GOP's deficit card for the near future. The GOP will look like fools if they lambaste the Dems on the (somewhat unavoidable in the short term) ballooning deficit when they had a chance to cut it by $900B, and instead decided to help the wealthy. But it's up to the press and public to call them out on it, and we probably won't. Plus it's not like the rich in the US are getting tax shafted versus other G8 nations. Heck, even the richest of the rich, Buffet and Gates, are telling DC to tax the rich more (http://abcnews.go.com/ThisWeek/billionaires-buffett-gates-tax-us/story?id=12259003&tqkw=&tqshow=TW)! The top tax rate in European democracies is ~42%, which is about what the rich in America are paying now when you include local/state taxes. But big differences: in Europe, taxes fund much better social programs and it's much harder to lose your job, so they need less money in their pockets for financial security. And in the US, our tax code is much more complex and corrupt, so the rich pay a much lower effective rate due to a laughable 15% rate on capital gains/dividends, plus all their crazy deductions and subsidies (remember the yacht credit that was recently eliminated? http://www.seattlepi.com/local/198998_boats10.html). And I believe the rich in the US earn more per capita than the rich in the rest of the G8 anyway.

We discussed the wealth gap a lot this year, and we've already debunked the Bush rationale that more money in the rich's pockets trickles down to help the whole economy (even Dubya's father called the justification of the rich tax cuts "voodoo economics"). So Obama, go ahead and tax the rich more, even if they sick their GOP minions on us as punishment. Keep crafting bills in Congress designed to fight the recession and help working people, and dare the GOP to block them every time. If (when) they do, go around the TV news circuit and blast them for it. Take out full-page ads and hit the campaign trail if you need to. Try to cut the debt by restricting earmarks, tax loopholes, and pet projects, and dare the GOP to oppose you. At least act like you're giving an effort. They might as well try it, because nothing good awaits them on their current trajectory.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

"Lord of War" extradited to the US

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101116/ap_on_re_as/as_thailand_us_arms_suspect

If any of you have seen the Nick Cage film "Lord of War", then you know some of the details about the life of prolific arms trafficker Victor Bout. He was nabbed in a sting in 2008 by Thai authorities working with the DEA in Bangkok, believing that he was negotiating an arms deal with the FARC of Colombia. Since then, the US and Russia have been lobbying the Thais for control of Bout. Bout was a former Soviet military officer, and when he went private after the fall of the USSR, Moscow still contracted with him for some under-the-table work and funneling arms to the black market. He is also rumored to be former KGB. So apart from the fact that he is a Russian citizen (and a professed "honest businessman"), they are concerned about what he may tell the US about their military-intelligence establishment and illicit arms distribution. The US may be interested in Bout for precisely that reason, not really to get a bad guy off the streets (since we cut deals with bad guys all the time in the Middle East). I guess after years of wrangling, we finally offered the Thais a big enough bribe/threat to let us have Bout and bring him to US trial for terrorism-related offenses.

Sure there is the whole cover story of the noble US global policeman wanting to bring a dangerous arms dealer to justice, a bad man who enabled warlords and dictators around the globe to commit unspeakable crimes on innocent victims, just to make a buck. He contributed to and profited from suffering and political instability. But it's not like getting rid of Bout since 2008 has made the world a safer place. The black market for guns is still alive and well, even in the US as we provide Mexican drug cartels with the bulk of their weapons. There are plenty of other arms dealers too, namely the permanent members of the UN Security Council, who do much larger volume sales of more deadly weapons than Bout could ever dream of. In 1990 dollars, the US has sold about $6B in arms each year, with the Russians not far behind at $5B/year. I am not sure if that amount includes military aid too (stuff we give away for free to friends).

In comparison, the UN estimates the global black market for arms trafficking at $250M yearly, which is less than 5% of America's "legitimate transactions" value. One can argue that the US is mostly selling to democracies, or at least people who share some of our values and hope to never have to use the weapons we sold them (but that's obviously not the case for Israel, Pakistan, and to some extent Colombia and Turkey). Arms smugglers are selling to people who are barred from buying arms openly because of their reputations and what the global community expects them to use the arms for. We are selling fancier, costlier merchandise of course, like warplanes and missile systems. So the cost of one F-16 equals thousands of used small arms that could wreak havoc on many victims in the hands of angry fighters. But Al Qaeda and Omar al-Bashir don't have gun factories. The small arms they obtain often originated in rich nations with strong military-industrial infrastructure, or poorer satellite states allied to global powers. So even if we didn't sell our guns (or the technology to manufacture them) directly to thugs, the people we sold them to eventually did via secondary transactions. So that is also irresponsible of arms dealing nations to not track and properly dispose of our weapons once they have outlived their initial purpose, or politics have changed. There are operational AK-47s used by the Taliban against NATO that are literally collector's items from the 1950s. The US doesn't face this problem because our guns break down much faster in harsh environments.

And lastly, I find it hilarious that this AP article failed to mention Bout's past dealings with the US military, and how he was actually an "ally" in our war on terror. Sure they noted his affiliation with bad men Gaddafi and Charles Taylor, but what about us? The "Lord of War" film alluded to this during the ending scene where a US general bailed Nick Cage's arms dealer character "Yuri" out of prison (sorry for the spoiler). During our 2003 invasion of Iraq, we needed to get a massive amount of military personnel and hardware airlifted into a nearly landlocked hostile country. Our military air cargo resources were insufficient, so we contracted with private carriers. But due to the high risk and insurance premiums, most firms declined to fly for us. But not Bout's air freight company of course. His fleet was plenty experienced smuggling in arms through war zones and avoiding detection. So he was earning millions from our defense contractors, or even directly from Pentagon accounts, while being a wanted criminal and on a US Treasury black list. He has even flown humanitarian aid flights for the UN. So I guess sometimes we have to go to bed with our enemy for the greater good.

Bout obviously has some relations with the Russian government that has afforded him legal protection and access to arms over the decades. He is a lubricant, so to speak, for their trade and foreign policy. But he is not the only one, as the world's top arms-dealing nations probably each have their own rosters of Viktor Bouts. During the Cold War, the US gave safe haven to many anti-communist terrorists who killed innocents in Cuba and Latin America, often at our behest and with our weapons/training. We obviously collaborated with arms traffickers during the Iran-Contra scandal (stinger missiles for hostages with drug money mixed in). Clearly it's not a bad thing that Bout is behind bars, but his market share will just be claimed by another. This isn't a matter of justice, but the projection of military and economic influence, as usual. The US-Russia rivalry changes with Bout out of the way, and possibly spilling his guts to the Feds about what he knows. Just don't be surprised if Putin spikes Bout's prison Salisbury steak with some radioisotopes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arms_dealing
http://www.havocscope.com/the-financial-value-of-the-black-market-in-arms-trafficking/
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=111799310

Friday, November 5, 2010

Fallout from the mid-terms

I definitely think Obama got a raw deal on Tuesday, but the Congressional Dems more deserved their fate. Obama deferred to special-interest-tainted Congress too much and didn't win the message war vs. the GOP (much of the time he didn't even participate, maybe wanting to show that he was above that). But as a young president who wanted to be transcendent and collaborative, maybe that's just the game plan he chose and got burned for it. Despite the media hype, Obama's presidency has not been extremely leftist. Sorry libertarians, but responsible gov'ts should get more involved during recessions. Maybe that can be problematic, but it's better than the alternative (see Japan's lost decade). Say Obama behaved like a "Blue Dog" and let the banks, local gov'ts, and auto go off a cliff towards a decade-long depression, laissez faire Hoover style. He and the Dems would have been slammed in the mid-terms anyway. So he might as well have tried to stimulate a recovery if he was going to lose no matter what. And according to NBER and Wall Street, he was mostly successful, though the pace is far from stellar of course.

Powerful conservatives in the media and business saw Obama's presidency as an affront to all they stand for (corruption) and hope to achieve (more profits), so they made his destruction their top priority. Nothing Obama could have done would have dissuaded them, even if he completely imitated Regan's leadership. Even now after their election victory, Senator McConnell said this week that denying Obama re-election in 2012 is the GOP's top priority. Soon-to-be Speaker Boehner is committed to repealing Obamacare. Not fixing the country's many problems, not helping Americans, not making the world safer, but defeating Obama and erasing his accomplishments. That's not conservatism, that's vendetta. To them, Obama may be a bigger enemy than Osama. These are the people controlling the purse strings in the House now. Good job, American voters.

I guess there is the argument that Obama spent too much effort and political capital on health care and not on job creation. Well our horrible health system is a drag on employers and the economy, so reform was a type of stimulus too. I don't think the final version of health care was that helpful for the economy, but it was better than the status quo. Then the GOP lambasted the Dems for the Recovery & Reinvestment Act, but many critical GOP congressmen were exposed for writing letters to gov't agencies asking for stimulus funds for their districts. Our infrastructure and social services are pathetic in many parts of the country, which also retards economic growth and social stability. Spending there is an INVESTMENT that will yield future returns. But I guess in the narrow-minded, short-sighted political culture, that's not persuasive enough.

Bottom line, the stimulus preserved or created some jobs, and extended unemployment benefits, which kept consumption from drying up and mitigated some of the social costs of mass unemployment. Many people still lost their jobs and income (while companies hoarded $1T is cash, but were hesitant to hire/invest even with record-low interest rates), but that is not Obama's fault. How much bang for the buck we got for the stimulus is another argument, but what was the GOP's alternative to the Obama/Pelosi agenda? Cut taxes, mostly for the rich and for corporations. We know that those type of tax cuts do not promote long term economic productivity. And Obama DID cut taxes for many Americans and small businesses, but he and Rahm didn't do a good enough job marketing that to the people. What about the bank bailouts? Remember that they started under Bush/Paulson, and few GOPs opposed them at the time. I'm not saying the bailouts were 100% good, but just using them as yet another example of GOP hypocrisy. Maybe all this back-and-forth between the Dems and GOP over how much the gov't is going to get involved in the economic recovery has contributed to the low corporate and consumer confidence in a recovery. It's a vicious cycle: if people don't think the economy is going to improve, they're not going to engage in the behaviors that are necessary for improvement. If Washington showed a unified front and brought all resources to bear to stimulate a recovery, then maybe companies would feel better about re-hiring. But what stood in the way of that? The threat of GOP Senate filibuster. And weren't they supposed to be the pro-business party?

Sports analogies in politics are overused, but maybe in this case it's fitting. A great coach on a bad team may lay the foundation for improvement, but he will still get fired after a couple losing seasons, even if he did a great job with the crummy hand he was dealt. Then his replacement gets all the credit for the improvements that he initiated (like Dungy turned around the Bucs but Gruden won the Super Bowl). Government policy doesn't usually immediately affect economic conditions, so any good or bad that Obama did may not even be known today or even by 2012. But in this era of 24-7 cable news, smart phones, and instant gratification, people are impatient for results. What can a president really do to turn around a $14T economy anyway, especially when 535 members of Congress all want their say, and almost half of them are committed to his failure? Voters seemed to be worried about the "size of government" and our deficit spending, but many conservatives didn't speak up during the Bush years and Medicare Part D (a bigger expansion of gov't health care than anything Obama has done). We had 4-9% GDP growth and were still running deficits under Bush, so what do you expect Obama to do with emaciated tax revenues and more people with their hands out? Debt is truly a problem for America (currently our deficit/GDP trends are moving towards Greek levels), but not our biggest problem. Plus much of our debt is due to our wars of choice and veteran's care, which no politician is prepared to cut. A household economy is not the same as a government's budget, so all those Tea Partiers using the one-liner "tighten our belts" cliches are just ignorant. There are plenty ways that the government can get more efficient, but it's not like the GOP has a great record of delivery on that either. So what is America really getting with a GOP House and an emasculated Obama?

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Robert Reich on the wealth gap and recession

Fresh Air had an interview with UC Berkeley professor and former Clinton labor secretary Robert Reich, who recently published "After Shock" about how vast wealth disparities contributed to the Great Crash/Depression and our current economic downturn.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130189031

The two years when the richest 1% of Americans controlled the most wealth in the US (~23% of all income) were 1928 and 2007. Coincidence? Reich argues that this wealth gap leads to recessions for two reasons: first, the middle class has less purchasing power and can't afford to keep up with standard of living gains (or rising costs of living partly due to Wall Street profit taking), so they resort to credit until it dries up, and then consumer spending just plummets. Second, the rich and those who control the factors of production are reaping huge earnings from financial and technological innovations, which encourages them to invest in more risky, speculative ventures. Obviously this is a recipe for problems. The wealth concentration before the Depression was partly due to the mechanization expansion of US industry at the turn of the century (Ford and Rockefeller types). New consumer goods like cars and radios became more affordable for the middle class, and credit flowed freely until the crash and the failure of 25% of US banks. During the New Deal and WWII, everyone was put to work for the war effort, and FDR enacted labor rights laws and social security, which helped the middle class recover and thrive.

During the Baby Boom, the richest 1% only controlled just 9% of America's wealth. I think they were still doing well, but the middle class was doing great, and there were more of them. But the OPEC embargo, rising unemployment, and stagflation in the 1970's eroded some of the gains. What partially prevented the recessions of the '70s through '90s from being longer was the entry of women into the workforce, and an expansion of the US work week (not by law, but by corporate edict). The US work week was ridiculously long (with only Sunday off) during our Industrial Revolution, then gradually shortened as we entered the Baby Boom, but started to lengthen again in the '70s, to the point when Americans now work much longer than Europeans and even longer than Japanese. This increased productivity and earning power, because back then they still paid for overtime and more workers were unionized. Though extra productivity only translated to so much extra disposable income as inflation and interest rates reached double-digits, so the middle class was pinched again and resorted to credit to make ends meet. During the Carter Era (though it got worse during the Reagan and Clinton years), the government enacted policies to promote a decades-long real estate boom fueled by tax breaks and credit (maybe with good intentions of raising living standards and making the American Dream more accessible, but was ultimately unsustainable). Financial deregulation also removed many Depression-era barriers to riskier speculation, so the construction industry and Wall Street fed off each other. The 1980's signaled another era of capitalist dominance, as computers, automation, globalization, and exotic finance gave them new powerful tools for the rich to grow their wealth, coupled by drastically lower taxes and gradual erosion of worker rights. The trend worsened into the 21st Century, and we know the rest.

Our economy is not dependent on the rich, but on the consumption of a secure and confident middle class. They may control a quarter of total wealth, but there are fewer of them, and they'd rather earn a "reasonable rate of return" than buy that 20th toaster. If the lower classes didn't matter, then why did Wall Street seek to exploit their buying power in the last decade through the expansion of subprime/payday loans and "no hassle" credit cards? I don't buy the contrary argument, though it is true that the rich pay a lot of taxes (that's the whole point, unless we are living in an undemocratic plutocracy, as some Citi analysts concluded in a leaked letter to their VIP clients: http://www.scribd.com/doc/6674234/Citigroup-Oct-16-2005-Plutonomy-Report-Part-1). But companies and the rich pay much less taxes than they should in fairness. Higher taxes don't have to hurt business as they allege, because hopefully the government would use that revenue on smart spending to spur growth of sustainable commerce (though their spending record is not great, but again it's partly due to policies favoring the rich and condoning waste).

The basic GDP equation is the sum of household consumption (C), investments (I), government spending (G), and net exports (NE). C is over 2/3 of our GDP, and the rich contribute a lot, but it's mostly powered by the sheer number of middle class families. So when the rich and the companies they lead enjoy preferential treatment, they take away from G (by paying less taxes, which leads to deficits) and really only help to increase I, but during recessions I loses value, so they'd rather hoard cash than lend or hire: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/hoarding-hiring-corporations-stockpile-mountain-cash/story?id=10250559. And when they do spend, they may choose overseas investments which aren't taxable and don't help US GDP (remember the IRS probe into UBS? http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/taxes/2008-06-30-irs-swiss-bank-ubs_N.htm). So in my (biased) view, they rich are a net drag on the economy and society. If the rich didn't exist, the rest of us would have more purchasing power to grow GDP, and the government would have a smaller deficit. Maybe we'd still consume frivolously and get into credit trouble, but at least wealth wouldn't be so concentrated, so our boats would rise and sink together.

[Former Fed Chairman Mariner] Eccles had nagging concerns that by tightening credit instead of easing it [during the Depression], he and other bankers were saving their banks at the expense of community — in "seeking individual salvation, we were contributing to collective ruin." ... Economists... sought to reassure the country that the market would correct itself automatically, and that the government's only responsibility was to balance the federal budget. Lower prices and interest rates, they said, would inevitably "lure 'natural new investments' by men who still had money and credit and whose revived activity would produce an upswing in the economy." Entrepreneurs would put their money into new technologies that would lead the way to prosperity. But Eccles wondered why anyone would invest when the economy was so severely disabled. Such investments, he reasoned, "take place in a climate of high prosperity, when the purchasing power of the masses increases their demands for a higher standard of living and enables them to purchase more than their bare wants. In the America of the thirties.... people hadn't enough purchasing power for even their barest needs."

Eccles knew Wall Street wanted a tight money supply and correspondingly high interest rates, but the Main Streets of America — the real economy — needed a loose money supply and low rates. Roosevelt agreed to support new legislation that would tip the scales toward Main Street. Eccles took over the Fed.


- Robert Reich

So isn't that grand: the rich help cause market crashes and recessions with their speculation and loose lending, then make recovery even harder by choking off credit to the middle class when it's critically needed (despite the government's best monetary policy efforts to lower borrowing rates and such). Then they skirt blame and say "natural investments" should spur growth even if commercial banks aren't lending (which is their whole purpose of existence). Even if interest rates are lower, so are costs and they're still making money aren't they? Most average Joes would be content with 5% during a recession, but not Wall Street.

More on the rich-poor gap

http://www.slate.com/id/2266025/entry/2266026/

Most of this stuff we've discussed already, but it's all in one convenient place. I'd like for any conservative out there to give me a reason why it's in a society's best interests for an individual to be able to amass tens of billions of dollars of personal fortune, when the median income is 0.0004% of that? And median US household net worth is even smaller than income, due to debt. Is that billionaire even creating jobs with the money? Not really, apart from landscapers and nannies. And they're not investing in new ventures and companies either, since that's too risky with too much SEC red tape. They're just trading in currency and commodity markets, which make them an easy buck but don't really contribute to long-term economic growth. 

I thought the attached image was funny. I know that a president doesn't control the economy, world events are constantly in flux, and sometimes their policies don't really kick in until they are out of office, but still. For the bottom 80% of US incomes since 1948, their income growth rates were over 50% smaller when a GOP was president vs. a Dem. For the top 20%, it's about the same for both parties, as one would expect. So much for liberals' taxation and regulation killing the economy. Those forces can be harmful, but apparently a GOP president correlates with a much worse outcome.

The Cold War right wing extremist roots of the Tea Party

Glen Beck and the Tea Party's right-wing extremist Cold War roots:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/10/18/101018fa_fact_wilentz

The Princeton professor author of this article thinks that if several Tea Baggers (how some of them have chosen to call themselves) win seats in Congress this fall, the GOP representation will be possibly the most right-wing in our history. People like Barry Goldwater were dismissed or even feared as dangerous wackos during the Cold War, but now similar views are well accepted in the TP. Mainstream conservatives like William Buckley cautioned that candidates like Goldwater would hurt their party. Recently Karl Rove insinuated something similar about TP Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell (Delaware), and the pro-TP backlash was so huge that Rove had to recant on the cable news circuit. When Karl Rove is the voice of moderation, I think the GOP has to realize that they've gone too far. And probably the establishment already has, since the RNC is also secretly hoping for the TP to fail so they can be top dog again. But how can they speak out against a movement that is galvanizing conservatives, raising money, and may win them back Congress? But they should consider the long-term repercussions of hitching their wagon to these wild horses.  

I find it ironic that Beck (the self-proclaimed historical brain behind the TP movement) espouses the libertarian views that government should stay out of our lives and the free market, and that gov. control leads to totalitarianism and fascism. Yet he is a devoted Mormon, which is one of the most socially invasive religions in history. Mormons can't watch certain movies, can't drink certain things, and must give up a % of their wages to the church (i.e. taxes). The church even tells members to rat out each other if they witness violations, like the Gestapo. So it's evil when a body of democratically elected officials and Constitutional law experts establishes things like due process, the EPA, and income tax, but it's fine when appointed church leaders (with no accountability, transparency, and checks/balances) do it?

For fans of "Freakonomics"

They now have a free podcast and website going for new topics to discuss:

http://freakonomicsradio.com/

Some of their controversial but data-driven assertions:

- Obesity probably won't kill you and doesn't cost society much (correlation doesn't equal causation)

- It's a good bet for soccer penalty takers to just kick the ball at the middle of the goal (game theory between goalie and striker)

- Then-candidate Obama was slow to denounce his former pastor Jeremiah Wright partly because of a cost-benefit quandary: tolerate his inflammatory comments, or admit to voters that he and his wife stopped regularly attending church after their kids were born. Obama wasn't turned off by Wright's comments because he wasn't in the congregation to hear them, but the campaign thought that the costs of publicly admitting he wasn't a regular church-goer (especially considering the ignorant attacks on his faith and American-ness) were greater than standing behind Wright, at least initially.

Sunday, October 10, 2010

Blair Mountain: the biggest US battle you've never heard of

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Blair_Mountain
http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.htm?programID=10-P13-00041&segmentID=3
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mountaintop_removal_mining

When I heard the name "Battle of Blair Mountain" in West Virginia, I assumed it was some Civil War event, and in a sense it was, except that the combatants didn't wear uniforms. The year was 1921, during the industrial rise and massive profit-taking spree by America's super-rich prior to the Crash that I emailed about last time. The US labor force was struggling against the capitalists and management for fairness and rights. Coal miners in northern states had already formed unions, and southerners wanted to do the same. The US coal industry was incredibly exploitative and almost colonial in poor rural areas like WV. Coal company bosses literally ran towns, and hired professional strike breakers and private muscle to intimidate or suppress anyone suspected of standing up to them. At the time, most of WV's mines were unionized, but the southern part of the state was a stubborn holdout. In Mingo County in that area, martial law was declared, union organizers were jailed and deprived of due process, and even outside media was banned. In a show of solidarity, miners from nearby Logan County gathered what small arms they could find and marched towards Mingo to try to free their brothers.

The coal bosses got wind of this and asked the local sheriff's department and state police to stop the march. The Logan County Coal Operators Association (LCCOA) also hired mercenaries and fortified a high ground position with MACHINE GUNS along the route that the march would take (at the time, they had raised the largest private army in US history: 2,000 fighters). 13-15 thousand miners, armed with hunting rifles and untrained in warfare, marched towards that mortal danger because they were tired of being slaves in the land of the free. The battle raged for 5 days with over a million rounds fired, and was the largest civil insurrection in US history. Amazingly, only 30 died on the coal bosses' side and 50-100 on the miners' side, possibly due to their amateur training and heavy vegetation in the area. But President Harding ordered the US Army to intervene (on the coal bosses' side), and used MB-1 biplane BOMBERS to drop surplus WWI ordinance on the miners (gas and explosives). This was one of the rare occasions when the US government fired on its citizens, and maybe the first instance in history of aerial bombing of civilians (or at least non-uniformed soldiers). Obviously the coal bosses won and WV authorities imprisoned about 1,000 miners. It was a crushing blow to the United Mine Workers, and membership shriveled from 50 to 10 thousand in the coming years. Southern WV didn't fully unionize until 1935 under FDR, who also helped improve worker rights through his New Deal. The battle also served to galvanize workers and inform the public about abusive practices by the coal industry. Organizations like the AFL and CIO drew inspiration from the battle as they formed and grew.

And just because this happened almost a century ago doesn't mean the labor market is problem free now, as we all know. We probably believe that no company would dare to resort to these measures against disgruntled workers today, but it just blows my mind that they even thought they could then. Is this America? Those men hadn't committed any crimes, and were just walking in the forest with their hunting rifles. Sure they may have posed a threat to public safety considering the events in nearby Mingo County (where other civil rights abuses were taking place), but they were US citizens. What a stain on our history that the US government would be complicit and even participatory in their murders and deprivation of Constitutional rights. Today, greedy and negligent coal barons like Massey disabled safety monitoring systems and falsified documents at the Upper Big Branch Mine in WV. They put their workers in danger (and eventually killed some of them) just in the name of increased output. WV continues to be one of the poorest states with very shameful education and health statistics. Despite that, their politicians are usually ultra-pro-coal and well funded by them. Where is the trickle down of wealth that the free marketeers promised? In fact, WV's coal riches probably make the people poorer, just like the "curse of resources" in places like Nigeria and Sierra Leone. But America is hungry for abundant coal to as a seemingly cheap, easy way to power our electricity grid, so we turn a blind eye to the suffering of West Virginians and destruction of their land over the decades, and continue to side with the coal bosses.

What about the legacy of Blair Mountain? Leftist officials and academics have petitioned to make the battleground a protected US historic site. Finally in 2009, the National Parks Service did recognize it as an official Historic Place. This was especially important because in an almost ridiculously comical turn of events, modern coal companies that own the development rights to the Blair Mountain area want to destroy the battlefield as part of the largest proposed mountaintop removal coal project in US history. The coal bosses literally want to bury Blair Mountain. It wasn't enough that it was more or less stricken from the historical record and social consciousness (because labor rights are of course communistic and anti-American); now they want to destroy any physical trace of their atrocity. But under this NPS designation, Blair Mountain would be preserved for the benefit of Americans. There are even plans to turn it into a tourist and educational destination, despite its rural location. But like the original battle, the coal bosses won out again. A week after the NPS announcement, WV officials produced documents showing that now a majority of landowners in the area object to Blair Mountain becoming a historical site, so by law the NPS cannot recognize it. The conservation side fought back, and by their polling they think most local residents would support Blair Mountain becoming a park. The list of opposing parties that WV produced contained names of people that had been dead for decades. The case is still unresolved, but all the while the mining companies are getting ready to turn the area into a moonscape (see "before" and "after" photos attached of a similar mining project).

Both GOP and Dem politicians running for the open US Senate seat from WV this November support the coal industry and endorse the mining project that will bring WV a whopping 230 jobs. I bet the tax revenues will probably be meager as well due to so many corporate loopholes and write-offs. And even if the site does get preserved, who can see it? The mining industry has made the area totally unlivable with constant industrial noise, heavy equipment traffic congestion, and toxic waste release in the air and waterways. They're destroying the regional history, culture, and Appalachian way of life, and it's mostly all legal. I can understand why the US and WV governments would want to sweep Blair Mountain under the rug, but they would be hypocrites because we have acknowledged the evil of slavery, the crime of Japanese internment, and other black marks on our record. But when it comes to the hot-button issue of labor rights and corporate abuse (even corporate violence with government support), we can't go there, not even during these hard economic times where corporate abuse of worker and property rights are well known.

http://amsterdamnews.com/articles/2010/10/10/news/doc4cacd34797eae468575454.txt

Ironically, a bill to make it EASIER for banks to foreclose on borrowers just passed Congress when this news broke. Obama then vetoed it. After all the public support and patience the banks have received since 2008, how dare they. Maybe some of it wasn't malicious and just due to overwhelmed staff facing 10X more foreclosure case workload than usual, but negligence can be as harmful as greed and hate. How much more trampling of individual property rights will we tolerate? If just one citizen was improperly dispossessed of their home due to regulatory lapses, procedural errors, or outright crime, what does that say about the self-proclaimed greatest country in the world's history? And what about honest buyers who unknowingly purchased a home that was improperly foreclosed? What a can of worms. The housing market is holding back our economic recovery, and banks are already swamped with more foreclosures than they can process and price, so why cut corners to add more fuel to the fire? Were they under incentives to foreclose as many as possible, or keep up with some ludicrous pace? Foreclosures have huge socioeconomic costs on consumers and communities, and banks also lose money and man-hours on them. Why not work with borrowers as the Obama Admin. has tried to persuade them to, instead of break rules to hastily kick them to the curb? Banks' cash flows look better when borrowers are making their (hopefully reasonable) monthly payments. They get nothing if the borrower defaults and the property languishes for months. Or are they doing it as part of a major corporate land-grab and shake-down of consumers, just so they can resell distressed properties for pennies on the dollar to vulture speculators, or in some cases the investment branch of their own firm? Is this yet another method of funneling wealth from the indebted masses to the rich elite?

Friday, October 1, 2010

Where do our taxes go?

The left leaning Third Way think tank published an itemized breakdown of where a typical federal taxpayer's revenues go. The median US income was $34,140 in 2009, which required $5,400 in income tax (include FICA payroll tax). Of that amount, here is the tax breakdown according to their calc's:


Item Tax % of total
Soc Sec $1,041.00 19.278
Medicare $626.00 11.593
Medicaid $385.00 7.130
Debt interest $287.00 5.315
Iraq/Afghanistan $229.00 4.241
Military Personnel $193.00 3.574
Vet Benefits $75.00 1.389
Fed Highways $64.00 1.185
NIH $47.00 0.870
Foreign Aid $46.00 0.852
K-12 Low Income Student Aid $38.00 0.704
Retired Military $33.00 0.611
Pell Grants $30.00 0.556
NASA $28.00 0.519
IRS $18.00 0.333
EPA $12.00 0.222
FBI $11.00 0.204
Head Start $11.00 0.204
Pub Housing $11.00 0.204
Nat Parks $4.00 0.074
DEA $3.00 0.056
Amtrak $2.00 0.037
Smithsonian $1.00 0.019
Arts Funding $0.20 0.004
Compensation for Congress $0.20 0.004

Of course this list is not comprehensive, as the sum of all items adds up to $3,200 or 59% of total, so I guess the rest of our taxes went to thousands of other smaller programs and maybe the salaries of other federal workers. I just find it disturbing that interest on our deficit, NASA, and Amtrak consume so much of our taxes versus other needs. I know the military is expensive, and we spend more than most of the G20 combined. And for those critics who say we dispense too much foreign aid, I think 0.9% is nothing for the richest nation in history. Compare that to the 31% we spend to support the 39M or so elderly Americans today. 13% of our population is consuming 31% of our revenues, and many of those retired are plenty well off financially.

Speaking of being well off, maybe you have heard of this U of Chicago law professor (Todd Henderson) who blogged about how hard his life is even though his household makes over $250k/year (his wife is an oncologist). He's worried about Obama raising taxes on him, and claims that he's not "rich". Obviously his narrow mindedness has offended the blogosphere and media, when the median US household income is $45k and 10% of willing workers can't land a job. Plus Henderson's complaints don't hold water: he lives in a pricey neighborhood, works easy hours, sends his kids to fancy private schools, contributes heavily to his 401(k), and has a landscaper and nanny. I'm sure he spends on frivolous consumer goods and services too. So if he feels so "pinched for cash", how about eliminate some of those clearly non-essential expenses and live like a regular guy? Or just become a corporate lawyer to triple your pay but never see your family. He made spending choices to make life easier and more comfortable, but there's no free lunch. He is not entitled to all those luxuries. If you want more money, you have to spend less or work harder. But don't complain about getting reasonably taxed for being part of the richest 3% of households in America. Today, the rich still get to keep 75% of their income after taxes. That's hardly a shake-down.

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/110876/why-the-rich-dont-feel-rich

“There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” - Warren Buffet

"In order to engage in warfare, one side has to fight back. There is no class warfare in the U.S. It ended a long time ago through surrender." - Noam Chomsky

Monday, September 27, 2010

FDR's "economic bill of rights" that is so needed today

I know Moore's best film was "Roger and Me" decades ago, but "Sicko" was pretty good so I thought I'd give "Capitalism" a chance, even if I could already imagine his thesis and slant (not saying that his argument is without validity, but I prefer to get a fresh viewpoint for personal edification).

One fact I didn't know was that a year before FDR died, and right in the middle of the biggest political issue of all time (not Lewinsky-gate, but WWII), he proposed a second or "Economic bill of rights" to help guarantee a better quality of life for all Americans. He wanted to do this because the first Bill focused on our political rights, and FDR felt that equal and fair access should be linked to the pursuit of happiness (otherwise what's the point?). FDR came from privilege but saw how greed from the rich sunk the market and crippled many of honest families during the Depression, and wanted to lay the foundation for a better future for Americans. Frankly, I find it utterly negligent and immoral that my public high school did not teach this, and I hope your schools were better. But then again, social sciences textbooks are produced by large companies that could stand to lose if an economic bill of rights were ever supported and enacted by the people.

Part of FDR's 1944 State of the Union speech went:

It is our duty now to begin to lay the plans and determine the strategy for the winning of a lasting peace and the establishment of an American standard of living higher than ever before known. We cannot be content, no matter how high that general standard of living may be, if some fraction of our people—whether it be one-third or one-fifth or one-tenth—is ill-fed, ill-clothed, ill-housed, and insecure.
This Republic had its beginning, and grew to its present strength, under the protection of certain inalienable political rights—among them the right of free speech, free press, free worship, trial by jury, freedom from unreasonable searches and seizures. They were our rights to life and liberty.
As our nation has grown in size and stature, however—as our industrial economy expanded—these political rights proved inadequate to assure us equality in the pursuit of happiness.
We have come to a clear realization of the fact that true individual freedom cannot exist without economic security and independence. “Necessitous men are not free men.”[2] People who are hungry and out of a job are the stuff of which dictatorships are made.
In our day these economic truths have become accepted as self-evident. We have accepted, so to speak, a second Bill of Rights under which a new basis of security and prosperity can be established for all—regardless of station, race, or creed.
Among these are:
The right to a useful and remunerative job in the industries or shops or farms or mines of the nation;
The right to earn enough to provide adequate food and clothing and recreation;
The right of every farmer to raise and sell his products at a return which will give him and his family a decent living;
The right of every businessman, large and small, to trade in an atmosphere of freedom from unfair competition and domination by monopolies at home or abroad;
The right of every family to a decent home;
The right to adequate medical care and the opportunity to achieve and enjoy good health;
The right to adequate protection from the economic fears of old age, sickness, accident, and unemployment;
The right to a good education.
All of these rights spell security. And after this war is won we must be prepared to move forward, in the implementation of these rights, to new goals of human happiness and well-being.
For unless there is security here at home there cannot be lasting peace in the world.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Bill_of_Rights

Unfortunately, FDR was quite ahead of his time. "Unless there is security here at home, there cannot be lasting peace in the world." Why do so many young, poor Americans "volunteer" for our armed forces or defense contractors? Some due to patriotism, but others due to material need and lack of gainful employment at home. Why did we go to war in Iraq? Partly because we don't have trade and energy security for our economy at home.

"Individual freedom cannot exist without economic security." How many of us are "slaves" to our jobs, and just put up with more and more abuse and loss of rights/benefits/dignity because we have no choice, and people count on us to make ends meet? How many of us are enslaved by the ridiculous cost of living in many metro US locations, the ridiculously complicated paperwork associated with taxation, finance, property, family, and other legal issues (that is way worse than any other G20 nation), and the ridiculous cycle of what economist Thorstein Veblen first coined "conspicuous consumption," because we think buying all that stuff will make our lives better, and make us look cooler and more successful to our peers (when they actually just steal our time, money, and even health)? What kind of "labor market" do we have when people don't pursue their dreams and innate talents because of material considerations (I can't believe that the best and brightest of us choose to work in finance, software, and cosmetic surgery because they truly love it more than other fields of letters and arts with more tangible social benefits)? What is the difference if a Marxist Leninist state tells you what job you will have, or the market? It's not really your choice either way unless you're independently wealthy, really lucky, or a standout with some desired skill set. How many of us or people we know stay at a bad job just for the medical coverage, or because they're worried they will run out of money during retirement? When we're economically desperate (or some may call it economically rational), we will endorse many harmful political and social practices. Our efforts to "maximize personal profit" may end up hurting us, and it happens every day.

Look at the list of rights: a useful and remunerative job that pays enough to provide and even have a little fun, a fair market with decent returns and competition, adequate housing, medical care, retirement, education, and disaster insurance. He's not asking for the moon here, but these days it seems like it. There isn't even a right for workers to unionize or represent themselves on the board. There's nothing that says everyone is entitled to a McMansion, SUV, and tropical time-share. What's ironic is that the idealists in our government who were inspired by FDR went out to the ravaged nations in Europe and Asia through the Marshall Plan, and helped create constitutions and societies that did uphold these rights that never materialized in FDR's country, rights that the business community equates to socialism and evil. Yes those other countries are no paradises (well, maybe Sweden would be if it had San Diego weather) and have their share of economic problems. Their social safety nets are fraying under the pressures of rising costs and aging populations, Japan had its own housing bubble and decade-long recession, and Europeans engaged in risky financial speculation and over-leveraging. Actually they only when wrong when they decided to act like Americans. At least they did what they could to create reasonably equitable societies (the rich-poor gap in Japan is the smallest in the world, while free market Mexico and Brazil have some of the highest), and presided over at least two generations of very happy, healthy, peaceful, productive, and well educated people. Think about how their policies helped prevent millions of people from going hungry, getting sick, and going to jail unnecessarily, while the numbers of those in America have soared since WWII despite our superior wealth.

When considering the cases of those nations (of course FDR had no way of predicting how the world would be in 2010), critics may say that we couldn't afford the economic bill of rights and it would be a government-run disaster of a social experiment. Inefficient markets due to government price controls and mandates always cause other problems, like the New York City rental market or gas rationing during the OPEC embargo. But who really knows, since we didn't give it an honest try. Imagine if all the wealth that was concentrated on Wall Street and among the richest 1% of us since WWII was instead used to make social services better and more efficient, or even make companies and communities more sustainable. Imagine if all the big brains behind Enron and mortgage-backed securities instead used their talents to improve society for all. It's a positive cycle that then raises the overall productivity, health, happiness, and wealth of a society. We'd waste less money on prisons, wars, pharmaceuticals, and frivolous products, which would give us more spending power for life essentials, and might even drive down the market price for the super-expensive things that we struggle with today (housing, education, health, elderly care). A "socially responsible" free market could have worked.

Before you write me off as an anti-consumerist socialist, I do want to say that I endorse the economic principle that efficient markets do create wealth and give everyone a "bigger share of pie". The problem is that the rich get most of the pie gains, so what's the point for the rest of us? As Moore said in his film, and maybe we have postulated over email too, those of us in the non-rich masses tolerate and even support this innately unjust market system because we hope that one day we will join the likes of the rich. It's like wasting one's pocket change at a slot machine because someone's gotta get a jackpot eventually, right? Except this time it's your life, your life savings, and no do-over. But what if you don't make it to the promised land (and don't get a federal bailout when you fail)? You would have endorsed a system that has brought you and millions like you unnecessary hardships just so a lucky, smart, or cheating few can profit immensely. If we had a choice between a reasonably socially secure life without the possibility of being rich or poor, or the free market where one can soar high or crash and burn (and be required to pay for everything out of pocket), would you be willing to pull the slot machine lever? And even if you do manage to make it big, is it still justified to gain at so many others' expense? Most major religions say no, and in fact they say the greedy and rich are cursed to hell.

The free market works better if people are more responsible with their profit motives, and don't take more than they reasonably need. But how the hell do you enforce that in a democracy? The incentive principle states that people tend to make decisions that will benefit them, so hopefully the wealthy will feel more personal benefit from philanthropy than making that one extra million (to add to their already immense net worth) from a Ponzi scheme. If a big investor owns X million shares of company Y, which had a good year, why not forgo dividends so that the company can pay its people better and offer its products for less? The stock already went up, you don't need the extra money, and your contribution will position the company to do even better in the future. Generosity, or even common sense, pays too and maybe better than greed. A good rancher keeps his milk cow healthy and doesn't slaughter her for meat. Goldman Sachs and George Soros types are the latter, speculators who contribute to and profit from market volatility that brought immeasurable panic and even suicides to honest investors and pensioners. There's no economic safeguard or equilibrating force to prevent the super rich from getting more and not sharing, which hurts everyone unless the pie is growing at a crazy pace (which we all know can't last). I guess the government used to step in and "spread the wealth around." The top tax bracket was 90% under JFK (when America had fewer super-rich), but today it is half that and capital gains/dividend taxes are obscenely low (the rich get much more money from investments than wages) as part of the Bush tax cuts that may expire soon. A society is not sustainable if the super rich profit without giving a "fair share" back, which also contributes to massive government debt (in both good and lean times it seems) which hurts everyone. Even conservative free marketeer Alan Greenspan, who helped us into this recession as chairman of the Fed, came out against extending the Bush cuts for that reason: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/business/july-dec10/greenspan_09-24.html.

Other shocking points from the movie:

1) Remember the Continental Express plane crash near Buffalo, NY a while back? Apparently right before the crash (which was attributed to weather and pilot error), the 2 pilots were complaining about their wages, which was a paltry $16,000 for the co-pilot Rebecca Shaw and not much more for the lead pilot. Moore interviewed some pilots who said they needed to take 2nd jobs or food stamps to get by, despite having a college degree and pilot's license that cost about $100K in student fees. This doesn't really apply to the subset of big-time pilots flying 747s on major routes, but why would lower pilots accept this horrible situation? They are cursed to love what they do, and airlines exploit this. Post 9/11 airlines need to cut costs to please Wall Street (even Southwest recently had a losing quarter), so they over-work and under-pay pilots, despite being unionized and even though those human beings are the only thing standing between hundreds of people getting to where they need to go safely, or dying a fiery death. Wages have been slashed and pensions are gone, but airline execs are living well. Are you ok with your pilot exhausted and stressed out about his or her personal finances? Imagine what other ways airlines are cutting safety or barely meeting FAA minimums. Even Miracle on the Hudson pilot Sully Sullenberger testified before Congress about this problem, but to deaf ears (and Congressmen take at least 50 plane trips a year!). If this is the magic of the market, I don't want any of it.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7015139878

2) Companies take out "dead peasants" life insurance policies on some workers in order to make a little extra cash on the side, which they don't share with the deceased's family. Young workers are especially lucrative because they have so much future earning power and the chances of death are low, but for big firms like Wal-mart or AMEX, they have enough staff to try. They probably have actuaries crunching HR demographics data to select the subset of workers with the most profit potential. Companies are not required to disclose any of this, and it is perfectly legal, but lawyers and the media have found out through leaks and erroneous mailings to next of kin. It's just an example of how the profit motive has been terribly twisted into something that most of us would hopefully find very offensive. A worker may be worth more to a company dead than alive. I'm not saying that companies actively try to help their insured workers die, but if they stand to gain from death, do they have a subtle economic incentive to not really take care of the welfare and personal needs of that worker? Maybe over-work them and cut health benefits? And it's not like companies need to insure themselves against losing most workers (apart from rare critical personnel like Steve Jobs types) like a breadwinner insures his or her death for the family. Most companies are set up to have interchangeable parts and redundancies, so losing a worker now and then won't cripple the business. Co-workers cover until HR can hire a substitute, so it's all really just a side-bet to make more cash. 

http://deadpeasantinsurance.com/

There are dozens of companies listed on the site, so see if your employer is among them! And remember that these are only the firms that got exposed.

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A recent NPR story about this topic, and more specifically an alternative to the corporate business model:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=130197557

You are probably familiar with the Maglite heavy flashlights that police officers use, and their smaller versions for civilians. Those products are made by Mag Instruments, a decades-old private company of 700 employees located in Ontario, CA. The company founder and leader, Anthony Maglica, is over 70, hasn't taken a vacation since the 1990's, and wears a shop floor uniform to work. He grew up in the US during the Depression, and unfortunately his family moved from the frying pan into the fire, and he grew up hungry in WWII-ravaged Croatia. Maybe these early experiences formed his business priorities, such as customer and employee treatment over profits. While most small consumer goods are manufactured overseas for cost savings, Maglites have remained domestic, and the company has even internalized more parts fabrication to reduce supplier costs. Maglica has also kept the retail costs of his products the same as they were in the 1970's, which he achieved through automation and a general lack of desire for profit taking. Sure he could make more money by going overseas, but he doesn't feel the need (as in, do those rich bastards really NEED that 10th car and 20,000 sq. ft. home?). Things are not perfect, as Mag posted an $11M loss last year, and had to lay off 200 workers (I believe the first layoff in the company's history). Maglica said it was the worst day of his life when he issued the pink slips. Of course this model may not work for larger public corporations, but maybe it really depends on the conscience of the company's leader.