Showing posts with label cold. Show all posts
Showing posts with label cold. Show all posts

Friday, August 22, 2008

Problems with NATO and Russia in a post-Cold War world


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7571109.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7571096.stm

This is not about an expansionist [Russia] with an ideology bent on world domination, but a major power eager to establish a sphere of interest in its own backyard and jealously guarding what it sees as the approaches towards its own frontiers - what Russians have traditionally called the "near abroad."

- Jonathan Marcus, BBC

History can really help us understand this recent Russia-Georgia conflict, but we should try to avoid false comparisons. Russia has changed a lot since its Soviet days, and their invasion of Georgia is not like Czechoslovakia, despite what some politicians and journalists claim. However, post-Cold War NATO hasn't changed much - obviously it's goal is still to contain/defeat Russia. If NATO really cared about Western stability and security, of which Russia is a key element, they would have tried to bring her into the fold rather than exclude her. As Secretary of Defense Gates said, it is not in America's or Russia's interests to have our relationship sour, yet why does each nation continue to jeopardize the fragile partnership with provocations and poor diplomacy? We have cooperated on nuclear disarmament and security, but not much else (and each side still has plenty of warheads to destroy the world 5 times over). Now that the War on Terror and oil money have empowered Putin's people to roll back freedoms and assume a more aggressive defense strategy, how will we respond? We did nothing over their "disproportionate use of force" and atrocities in Chechnya, and I bet NATO would rather see the Georgia situation swept under the rug (even at high cost to the Georgians) than be forced to take a hard line with Russia over a poor, obscure country that most Americans couldn't locate on a map.

But we should remember cause and effect. Typical of the greedy West: After the Soviet collapse, we were licking our chops to snatch up as many former Iron Curtain nations as possible. But we shouldn't provoke a wounded beast, especially when that beast still has very sharp teeth (the #2 military in the world). After the shame of the Soviet defeat and the virtual collapse of their economic and military systems, Moscow probably wasn't too thrilled about opportunistic Western "meddling" in their former satellite states. Especially after the "Orange and Rose Revolutions" in Ukraine and Georgia, where Western-backed shady leaders replaced the old Russia-backed shady leaders, Russia is seeing its former sphere of influence rapidly contracting. Clearly it is wrong for Moscow to censor/imprison/murder dissidents and journalists, centralize power, and meddle in the politics of neighboring sovereign nations, but world events have almost compelled them to take a more hardline approach to domestic security and foreign policy, especially during the Bush years. We claim that our forces in Asia are there to keep the peace and fight Islamic terrorism, but how can Russia be sure? Venezuela and China recently went on spending sprees for more modern military hardware, such as fighter planes and missiles. Is it for defense or aggression? It's impossible for outsiders to know, and plenty of right wing Americans are concerned. So from Russia's point of view, they almost have no choice but to assert themselves more forcefully in Central Asia. They already lost Eastern Europe to the West. Stalin was apathetic or in denial about the German forces massing on Russia's border in 1941, and it almost cost him Moscow. I am sure Putin and Medvedev (who are corrupt but definitely not in Stalin's league), will be a lot more proactive concerning the buildup of American forces, aircraft, and missiles around them.

Maybe NATO would have tried to tighten the stranglehold on a weakened Russia even more, if not for the fact that they are a top 5 oil producer and supply 25% of Europe's energy. And they will use that as leverage if they need to, as was the case in 2006 when they cut off westbound natural gas exports over a price dispute with pro-West, anti-Moscow Ukraine. Unfortunately Europe's gas is fed through pipelines crossing Ukraine, so they were caught in the fracas and had to plead with both sides to compromise and turn the spigots back on. So fortunately or not, the energy situation provides a good stability check between Russia, Europe, and the US. The more we need each other, the less likely we will try to scam and threaten each other. Though Europe needs Russia a whole lot more than vice versa (especially with the rise of Asian and Middle Eastern trading alternatives for Russia), and our economic fate is clearly tied to Europe's.

As Noam Chomsky said - America has to choose between hegemony or survival. We can't have both, so either we treat nations fairly and keep the peace, or we try to dominate the globe and risk catastrophic war. It's not enough for us to have won the Cold War, but now we seek to fill the Soviet power vacuum in the region too? Let's also remember the lessons of Versailles: it will come back to haunt us if we overly punish and shame a defeated empire. Many Russians are not happy with their homeland's loss of prestige, and some have even become nostalgic for the Soviet days when they commanded fear and respect. Even younger Russians tend to think positively about the USSR. The last thing we need is a nationalistic Russia with a chip on its shoulder and reverting to Soviet ways. I know that Moscow controls its media and people, but the vast majority of Russians are supporting Moscow over the Georgia war. They feel that President Mikhail Saakashvili brought the invasion onto Georgia by his incursion into South Ossetia and violating the fragile balance. After some small clashes on August 7, Saakashvili asked the Ossetian paramilitaries to cease hostilities and "give peace and dialogue a chance", but just 5 hours later Georgian forces fired artillery and started to send troops into the region, killing some civilians.

And unlike McCain and his former Georgia lobbyist staffers, I don't think the Tiblisi regime is worth defending at the cost of angering Russia further. Their leader Saakashvili is progressive but no saint. He's not a Moscow stooge or a kleptocrat (though he is building a lavish new presidential palace for a very poor nation), but he's not George Washington either. He is a Western-educated lawyer, and only came to power by betraying his political mentor and convincing him to step down amidst scandal. Since he took office in 2003, Saakashvili has modernized the economy somewhat and increased foreign investment, but critics say he sold the country on the cheap to outside interests. He also curbed some freedoms and violently cracked down on protests against him just this winter. As a PR damage control stunt, he offered to hold snap elections against opposition party rivals to see if the people really wanted him out. He won the vote to stay in power (52% vs. his nearest competitor at 25%). Some international monitors concluded that the election was more or less fair, but others faulted them for accepting things at face value and not investigating the many allegations of fraud. But in the words of LBJ, it's clear that Saakashvili is "our SOB" and we want him to stay, despite the fact that half of the nation disapproves of him. Maybe there's no one better in Georgia, but that's why it's Georgia. I hope we would learn the lessons of Saddam and Musharraf, and be wary of allying ourselves with questionable characters just for modest strategic gains.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7174343.stm

For Saakashvili and Ukraine's Victor Yuschenko to be elected to power was a big slap in the face to Moscow, though maybe they had it coming (and still that's no excuse to poison Yuschenko). But it's the equivalent of an anti-immigrant extremist (some might say racist) like Tom Tancredo winning the US presidency - so how would Mexico react to that? Saakashvili was elected on a platform of defiance against Russia, increased relations with the West (for democratic and economic modernization), and reclaiming the Ossetia and Abkhazia breakaway regions, so I guess he thought he was carrying out the will of his people. But that is in violation of a 1992 agreement between Russia, Georgia, and South Ossetia to preserve peace and semi-autonomy in the region. Parts of Central Asia are very multi-ethnic and plagued by similar problems as the Balkans. Georgia has clashed with its minorities for over 100 years. Order was maintained under the Soviets, but old habits returned with an independent Georgia, and over 1,000 people died during fighting in 1992 and 2004. Under threat by Tiblisi and treated as second-class citizens due to their ethnicity, of course the Ossetians and Abkhazians would turn to Russia for aid, as Ho Chi Minh and Fidel Castro did during the Cold War, when menaced by what they saw as Western imperialism. And Moscow seems more than happy to help and make life difficult for Tiblisi, though they officially deny providing any military support to the rebels.

MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

So in a sense, Georgia provoked this excessive Russian meddling in their affairs. I do not think that Moscow would have felt so threatend by a gradual Georgian re-alignment with the West, while still maintaining some basic relations with Russia. But simply dismissing Russia and pledging to join NATO can only invite a hostile reaction from Moscow. Russia is an important historical patron and partner in the region, so her presence can't simply be ignored (or replaced by America/NATO), despite her sometimes negative influence throughout history. It's clear that former Warsaw Pact nations have not fully forgotten or forgiven past Russian tyranny, which may complicate relations today. As nations like Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary make plans for their futures, it's no surprise that they now prefer to look west instead of east. Russia could have done a much better job addressing its harsh treatment of her satellite states and healing old wounds, so it shouldn't surprise them when their former subjects are seeking partnerships with Russia's competitors. France and Britain have done well to rehabilitate and improve relations with many of their former colonies, and despite some lingering distrust and injustice, both former colonizer and colonized now profit from robust trade, travel, and other exchanges. Therefore, both Georgia and Russia could learn a lot from history and save themselves some future headaches. Russia is notorious for poor diplomatic tact and sensitivity (example: Khruschev slamming his shoe at the UN and proclaiming "We will bury you!"), but they really dropped the ball on reaching out and mending fences with the former Warsaw Pact. Georgia has every right to strengthen ties with the West and lobby for NATO admission, but the manner in which they do so can either reassure or provoke Russia. They are a small country that can't afford to have such powerful enemies on their doorstep. Russia has already crippled their weak economy with trade sanctions, and now this current incursion has decimated their meager military infrastructure and compromised their ability to govern.

Both sides screwed up, and now they find themselves in quite a mess. What America can do about it is another mess, which I can't really address here without writing 3 more pages. But Russia had the propaganda advantage last week, and they pissed it away with poor communication and excessive violence. There is strong evidence to show that Georgia violated the treaty, attacked Ossetia not as last resort, and civilians were killed. But Russia didn't lobby the international community and allow media access in Ossetia to validate its case for intervention. Many Georgians were actually quite angry at their leader for inviting this Russian retaliation. This was a totally asymmetrical war, even worse than Israel-Hizbullah, and Georgia's defense couldn't hold for even an afternoon. Russia's excessive destruction of a weakling foe (plus some atrocities in all likelihood) was probably meant to send a message that they still run things in these parts, and chop the defiant Saakashvili down to size. But the horrible manner in which they did it actually galvanized support for politically compromised Saakashvili from shocked foreigners and nationalistic Georgians outraged at the razing of their homeland. Of course it wasn't like Ivan the Terrible beheadding every Georgian he could find, but enough damage was done to make global opinion label Georgia as the victim and Russia the aggressor. Medvedev's faux cease-fire was also a bad blow to their credibility and PR campaign. Georgia was not, and will never be, a military or political threat to Moscow. Russia could have halted its advance after it retook Ossetia and surrounding areas, delivered humanitarian aid to gain local support, and hooked up with opposition leaders in Tiblisi to attempt to overthrow Saakashvili. Then they could have made a legitimate case that they were just responding defensively, while also turning the Georgians against their controversial leader. Now Georgia can lobby the UN and NATO that they might require Western peacekeepers in their territory, to balance the Russian troops in Ossetia and deter future aggression. I am sure that Washington would be more than happy to set up more bases in Central Asia, but probably won't since it will only escalate tensions with Moscow. But Russia screwed up royally as usual, and now they are the goats. Like the Israelis in Lebanon, you can't bomb bridges and hospitals, and then claim that you're trying to keep the peace.

But try telling Russians on the street that they are to blame for all this, and you might end up in the hospital. They heavily support their government in this conflict, so obviously something is getting lost in translation. In conflicts like this, there is rarely a "good guy", but Russia is not 100% to blame. The Russians do have a point that they did not fire first, and they have a right to enforce the 1992 agreement to defend Russian citizens and defenseless Ossetians under attack by Georgian forces. And their meddling in the separatist regions is just supporting independence for oppressed minority groups, as Bush did for Kosovo (despite Russian protest). But we know that the truth is not, and can never be, so plain and innocent.

THE MISSILE SHIELD

Of course we want to help former Soviet nations like Georgia modernize, democratize, and open up their markets to us (the US, France, and Russia are bitter rivals for arms sales), but most importantly their real estate on Russia's front yard is so precious. Do you really think we give a crap about Poland and Bulgaria because they're nice people? Like Turkey, Ceaucescu Romania, and Pakistan during the Cold War, we allied ourselves with unstable yahoos because of their strategic locations. Under the auspices of the War on Terror, we've planted troops and airbases in at least 3 former-Soviet central Asian 'Stans in addition to many Middle Eastern nations. For petty cash and propping up a few dictators, we can protect our energy investments and keep an eye on the Muslims and Russians simultaneously; it's a good deal.

The biggest afront to Russia is the missile defense shield. The USSR went bankrupt trying to have its bloated, in most cases delapidated, military keep pace with American advancements, and some argue that Reagan's selling of the Star Wars program helped convince the Kremlin that the show was over. All Russia had left was her nuclear deterrent, and if America could neutralize that asset (even though our billion-dollar system couldn't shoot down a seagull), then they had no choice but to accept defeat peacefully, or end human history with nuclear war. Thank goodness they chose the former. No matter what BS comes out of Washington, we can't fool anyone that the proposed missile interceptors in Eastern Europe are for defense against Iran. No way. There are only two nations in the world with nukes on hair-trigger alert: Russia and the US. Not even China or Pakistan, and North Korea can't even miniaturize its primitive bomb for missile delivery anyway. So only Russia and the US have the arrogant temerity to believe that we deserve the ability to destroy cities (or whole countries) immediately and without provocation, and that will somehow keep the peace. Yes that is a scary reality, but amazingly it's something that humanity has lived with for 50 years. Of course other nuclear nations don't profess to want or need first-strike capability, and prefer to keep their arsenals as passive deterrence.

The Czechs have already committed to the missile shield with us, but Poland has been more hesitant. Nothing has materialized from years of negotiations, maybe over concerns that their neighbor Russia might be offended, and the costs may outweigh the meager benefits. We claim that the shield is intended for rogue states (namely Iran) and definitely not Russia, but less than a week after the Russian invasion of Georgia, panicked Polish leaders are signing on the dotted line with Condi Rice. So I guess it's just coincidence that they suddenly had a change of heart? Give me a break. If other nations like China and Iran want to fire missiles at neighbors, they need time to prep their missiles and go through the appropriate protocols. It's possible that our satellites and other intel can detect that activity in time to mount a preventive response. Then there is no need for an interceptor shield. And I hate to break it to the Czechs and Poles, but NATO and the missile shield won't protect them from Iran or Russia anyway. The shield is obviously meant to neutralize missiles before they reach more high-valued targets in Western Europe and North America. The shorter the missile flight, the harder it is to shoot it down. If Iran (or Russia) were stupid enough to waste their first-strike on insignificant Krakow or Prague (and then suffer nuclear anihilation by NATO in response), then in all likelihood our interceptors won't be able to stop them. Plus many nuclear warheads are built to detonate above a city for maximum damage (like Hiroshima), not to actually strike the ground. What if the bombs detonate before the interceptor reaches them? And even in the Pentagon's best test-runs, the shield was only able to stop 50% of bogeys, so in practice it will probably drop to 20% at most (but you only need one missile to get through for the whole shield to fail its purpose). Plus the shield will do nothing if Russia ever invades "the old-fashioned way" with armored columns and attack aircraft, as they did in Georgia.

So we're sorry Poland and Czech, but really we're just using you for your real estate, to protect the "real Europeans" we care about. What's sad is that some Poles interviewed on the street say that they're happy to hear the news and they'll feel safer against Russia now (no mention of Iran of course). But I guess in times of crisis, some humans prefer to take comfort in illusions. Other Poles echoed my view that this shield is a bad idea, because for whatever possible defensive advantage it may give them, it's not worth the provocation to Russia. Moscow knows that this missile shield is designed with them in mind, so their hostility is understandable and not irrational/aggressive. Actually we are the aggressors, trying to force this down Eastern Europe's throats or bribe/scare them into agreement. It's not like it was their idea, and they were screaming for years to protect them against evil Iran or Russia. Many of those nations buy oil and gas from Iran and Russia! Why would they attack their best customers outside of Asia? And if the tables were turned, how would we feel if Russia builds a big base for attack submarines in Cuba, and claims that it's meant to stop drug smuggling in the Caribbean? No one likes to be played for a fool, especially the Bear.

I know some politicians have offered to placate Russia by offering to base some of the missile shield installations within her borders. But that does no good at all. Russia isn't worried about Iranian missiles aimed at them, and they have their own defenses. If we really wanted to reassure Russia and offer parity, then we would permit them to place their bases and interceptor missiles in North America. You have to balance the playing field if you want a clean, fair game. Honestly, the best defense against a nuclear attack is a good line of communication, not a military response, as we saw during the Cuban Missile Crisis. If America really cared about protecting Europe from Iranian missiles, Russian missiles, or whatever, then they would expand dialogue with hostile nations instead of encircling, namecalling, and stonewalling them. If America really cared to prevent nuclear war, then we would take our missiles off hair-trigger alert, dismantle some of our huge arsenal, and convince Russia to do the same. Can anyone in the Pentagon explain to us why it is better for global stability that we are able to destroy any target on Earth at the flip of a switch?

IS NATO STILL RELEVANT?

So what is the NATO security alliance really worth? I can almost guarantee that the Western powers will not stick their necks out for the recently accepted Eastern European members, risking nuclear war with Russia if she somehow decides to become belligerent with her neighbors. The developed nations did not come to Poland or Czech's aid when Hitler and Stalin annexed them, and the stakes were a lot lower then in a pre-nuclear world. Nor did they come to their aid during their Cold War uprisings. The West has been petrified of confronting Russia directly militarily, and now their oil leverage complicates matters. I know that in theory, an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all, but can you imagine a US or UK leader trying to persuade the voters that they have a duty to fight Russia just because she invaded Estonia?

What has NATO really done for us since the fall of the USSR? They have presided over botched peacekeeping operations in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s, and were ultimately unable to stop former Yugoslavians from slaughtering 100,000s of each other. In fact, the NATO bombing campaign over Serbia actually accelerated ethnic cleansing for a while until Milosevic capitulated. In the NATO charter, they have the "right" to engage in military operations without the approval of the UN Security Council. After 9/11, as we all know NATO forces went to Afghanistan to topple the Taliban and apprehend/destroy Al Qaeda leadership. But since then, few NATO allies have stepped to the plate and really committed to counterinsurgency and anti-Taleban operations. The US, UK, and Canada have borne the brunt of costs and casualties (notwithstanding the French who lost 10 soldiers this week). If the other nations don't want to leave their bunkers to help stabilize one of the 5 poorest nations on Earth, then how can we count on them to come to our aid in a more serious security crisis?

Can someone give me an honest, rational explanation why America's collective security should involve Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania, who were admitted to NATO in 2004, after Poland, Hungary, and Czech in 1999? Croatia and Albania are slated to join soon, and an "offer" has been made to Ukraine and the now-famous Georgia. But basically Russia pulls the strings for Georgia's membership, because they are inelligible to join NATO as long as they have unresolved territorial disputes within their borders, such as the South Ossetia situation. I know that most of the recently added nations are semi-functional democracies and eager trade partners, but why should we have to devote American blood and money to defend them? We have very little in common, and half of those states are borderline Third World. Actually if anything, Eastern Europe and Central Asia should forge more economic pacts with the West (which will naturally help stability and development), not military ones. But if the EU is not rushing to admit nations that aren't quite ready yet, why is NATO in such a hurry? Europe today is the most cooperating and peaceful its ever been since the invention of the sword, but new problems and hard feelings from past tensions still exist. It's quite possible that even NATO allies may have serious tensions with each other in the future, as the competition for resources intensifies and other problems worsen (immigration, terrorism, climate change, etc.). Then what is America supposed to do? If we expand NATO to 20-30 members (it stands at 26 now), that is too many for America to stick its neck out every time there is trouble.

It is a pain in the ass to be the world's policeman, especially when we don't really know what we're doing and may not even be able to stop some of the "crooks". We have our hands full with Iraq, we couldn't stop North Korea and Iran from maturing their nuclear programs, and we can't (or don't care to) intervene in the humanitarian crises in Sudan, Myanmar, and Zimbabwe. And even when we put boots on the ground to "keep the peace", we failed miserably in Southeast Asia in the 1970s, Lebanon/Iran in the 1980s, and Rwanda in the 1990s. So how the hell are we supposed to stop Russia, China, and other powers from menacing their neighbors? Stuck in Iraq and having lost so much international credibility because of it, everyone knows our condemnations and threats are hollow. It's a lose-lose proposition. I am not saying that isolationism is the answer, but we can't keep wading knee-deep in other people's messes. We have to clean up our own house first. I know in this globalized world we are all interconnected, and regional conflicts can cause massive socioeconomic disruptions overseas, but I would hope that we could adopt a more preventative, inclusive foreign policy rather than the current costly, divisive, and reactive one. For sure, the answer is not dividing up the world into spheres of influence, resuming arms races, and forming pacts to obtain strategic advantages, which happened in the years leading up to WWI and during the Cold War. When will we ever learn?

Russia and Georgia made quite a mess of things last week, and we have become centrally involved because of our alliance with Georgia and our insistence on installing an inflammatory missile shield in Eastern Europe. Either we will intervene and make things worse, or our credibility as "world's policeman" will suffer worse because we were too impotent or undiplomatic to convince Russia to change her behavior. Or maybe in some feat of diplomatic genius, we will improve our dialogue with Moscow and come to an equitable compromise, but I doubt it. "Compromise" is often not in Washington's vocabulary. But before we sink deeper into the NATO and Russia pit, we should remember how we got here. If America wasn't so insanely greedy to expand our presence in Russia's backyard, and admit many former Soviet nations into our club to take advantage of their territory, maybe Russia wouldn't feel so cornered and forced to respond to crises so harshly. If we value our security and the security of our NATO partners, then we must also value the security of Russia, Iran, and other competing interests. When our opponents feel safe and trust us, then there is no reason for them to endanger us. If we don't want Russia to keep bullying its neighbors, then we need to stop bullying in that region too. We can't keep trying to create a world where we hold all the cards, and the "left out" countries just have to accept their lot. Based on these arguments, maybe a good first step towards that goal of achieving a fairer, safer world is to cancel the missile shield and disband NATO.

This is what Ron Paul had to say about the matter on the House floor this spring:
Ron Paul: Disband NATO
April 1, 2008 in News by Eric Garris | 44 comments

This is Ron Paul's statement before the US House of Representatives on House Resolution 997, "expressing the strong support of the House of Representatives for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to enter into a Membership Action Plan with Georgia and Ukraine."

Mr. Speaker, I rise in opposition to this resolution calling for the further expansion of NATO to the borders of Russia. NATO is an organization whose purpose ended with the end of its Warsaw Pact adversary. When NATO struggled to define its future after the Cold War, it settled on attacking a sovereign state, Yugoslavia, which had neither invaded nor threatened any NATO member state. This current round of NATO expansion is a political reward to governments in Georgia and Ukraine that came to power as a result of US-supported revolutions, the so-called Orange Revolution and Rose Revolution. The governments that arose from these street protests were eager to please their US sponsor and the US, in turn, turned a blind eye to the numerous political and human rights abuses that took place under the new regimes. Thus the US policy of "exporting democracy" has only succeeding in exporting more misery to the countries it has targeted.

NATO expansion only benefits the US military industrial complex, which stands to profit from expanded arms sales to new NATO members. The "modernization" of former Soviet militaries in Ukraine and Georgia will mean tens of millions in sales to US and European military contractors. The US taxpayer will be left holding the bill, as the US government will subsidize most of the transactions. Providing US military guarantees to Ukraine and Georgia can only further strain our military. This NATO expansion may well involve the US military in conflicts as unrelated to our national interest as the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia. The idea that American troops might be forced to fight and die to prevent a small section of Georgia from seceding is absurd and disturbing.

Mr. Speaker, NATO should be disbanded, not expanded.

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http://www.forbes.com/2000/11/02/1102atg.html

This is an interesting piece in Forbes from 2000, when W was running against Gore for the White House.

With an estimated annual budget of $1.56 billion, the U.S. shouldered about 29% of NATO's operating budget in 1999, or about $452 million. Each of the member nations pays into NATO based on its gross domestic product, making the U.S. the biggest single contributor. That fund pays for NATO's basic day-to-day operations like staffing and communications, and will presumably pay for NATO's new headquarters, a 557,000-square-foot complex in Brussels. But when an American plane drops a bomb under NATO auspices, its cost is borne by American taxpayers out of the defense budget, not by NATO.

Especially now that the Iraq War has strained our military so much, it doesn't make sense for the US to be NATO's chief financial and military contributor. We are the de facto primary intercessor if an ally needs help, and the more backwards Eastern European nations we admit into NATO, the more we will have to cover their asses if trouble happens. Actually if we want to reform NATO, the US and UK should pay zero, and actually the small, defenseless, minimally-contributing members to the east should pay the most into the system, like "protection money" to the mob! They're the ones on the front lines, they need our expertise and technology to modernize their armies, and they'll cry to us for help in times of crisis, so why should they pay the least yet get the most benefits/protection? It's not like Lithuania is helping make America safer or catching Osama.

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http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/13-Aug-2008/Disband-NATO

Granted that this op-ed came from Pakistan, but at least that country has the courage and conviction to impeach a corrupt leader who doesn't respect the constitution, unlike Americans.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Parallels between Cuba and Iraq


Why we have failed to learn the national security lessons from the Cuban Missile Crisis in our current War on Terror

From some stuff I read recently about the similarities with the 2003 Iraq
invasion and the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis:

Of course living in the West, we take most of the credit for averting nuclear
holocaust, but the more we learn – the less realistic that conclusion
becomes. Yes, even for a JFK fan, it’s easy to admit. At the 40th
anniversary, National Security Archives representative Thomas Blanton states
that Soviet sub officer Vasili Arkhipov basically saved the world on 10/27/62
by disobeying the order to fire nuclear torpedoes in response to depth charge
attacks by overzealous US destroyers exceeding the naval quarantine of Cuba.

Apparently, after the botched Bay of Pigs and the ever-escalating Operation
Mongoose (terror/insurgency ops conducted by the CIA and Cuban exiles against
the Castro regime, but mostly hurt the populace and economic infrastructure),
a larger aggressive action against Cuba was planned for late 1962 … until
the U2 photographed the missiles.

Of course war was averted when diplomatic back channels arranged for JFK and
Khruschev to agree to dismantle the Jupiter nuke missiles in East Turkey and
make a tacit promise to never invade Cuba (the strength of this agreement is
unclear), in exchange for the USSR missile pullout on Cuba. The Russians held
up their part of the bargain, but of course the USA replaced the Jupiter nukes
with even more lethal and elusive sub-based Polaris missiles lurking just
outside Soviet waters. And some reports suggest that JFK approved resuming and
even intensifying anti-Cuban clandestine ops just weeks after CMC. It got
worse under Republican presidents, regime change was the official State Dept
stance with Castro, and Cuba was officially regarded as a rogue/terror state
for decades.

I do not know why it’s “OK” for the USA in 1961-2 to threateningly place
WMDs at the Soviet’s doorstep in plain sight of everyone except the US
public (thanks, mass media), but when the Reds try to even the score with
Cuba-based missiles to fulfill the Mutually Assured Destruction doctrine, we
have a shit fit. What would you do if you were Khruschev? We CANNOT justify
the Turkish nukes as defensive measures to improve the security of the USA and
her allies. Nor can we expect other nations (minus Israel and Japan maybe) to
remain calm as our nukes (strategically placed in their backyards) are only
meant to keep the peace. We can understand why Koreans, Filipinos, and others
protest to get US troops the heck off their land. Turkey and Central Asia were
never even on the drawing board for Soviet aggression until the Afghan
invasion, so there was no need for deterrence (plus Israel probably had nukes
by ’62 and covered the Middle East region for us). Of course when we flex our
muscles, the world is supposed to trust us that our intentions are good, but
if our opponents do the same, it’s a war crime.

Sure, it’s quite possible that the USSR was planning to install Cuban nukes
irrespective of what we did in Turkey – but a lot of countries come up with
a lot of zany ideas, though that does not constitute a direct security threat.
Saddam was “trying” to acquire WMD and who knows what he wanted to use
them for, even though his direct neighbors (and bitter enemies like Israel,
Kuwait, Saudi & Iran) were not on high alert at all – until we invaded. When
we attempt to justify preventative/pre-emptive war based on our shoddy intel
and Bush-like psychic gut feeling, we run into dangerous hypocrisy. Ever since
the Castro-led revolution, the USA has made no attempt to disguise its
intentions for Cuba. For Castro to follow American doctrine, it would be
perfectly fine to seek protection from other powers like China and Russia. In
fact, once nukes could be operational – it also follows the Bush paradigm to
wipe out DC, even if it means cataclysmic American reprisal attacks. As
depicted in “The Fog of War”, when Castro and McNamara met years after
CMC, Castro told him that he would have recommended the Soviets launch the
nukes, if they were operational once the Yanks found out – even if it meant
Armageddon for his people. McNamara said that was crazy, but Castro told him
that JFK would do the same thing in his shoes. McNamara agreed; if you’re
facing certain destruction anyway (and all indicators suggested that was
America’s goal for Castro, just like Saddam today), you need to strike first
if you can. That is the end result of the Bush doctrine, and that is why it
can’t be tolerated. Supposedly Al Qaeda types will never rest until all
Westerners are dead or worshipping Allah, so we have to get them before they
get us. But that is the “logical illogicality” of such a conflict (the
phrase was coined by the US War Dept in ’45 during the budding Cold War).
Defense becomes attack and vice versa. To save ourselves we must destroy
external threats, but picking fights everywhere only increases our chances of
annihilation (a la CMC). To defeat int’l communism or terrorism, we need to
deprive them of resources, manpower, and friendly regimes – so following the
Neoconservative dogma, we set up “democratic” puppet states run by “our SOBs”
all over the place (even if it means violating int’l laws/treaties and
committing war crimes & atrocities, or condoning such measures by our allies).
But that nonsense seems logical if we believe that the enemy will take those
exact measures if we don’t, and no superpower wants to miss the boat.

Since the ‘50s, an aggressive neighboring enemy that harbored
terrorists (I’ll expand on this later but trust me for now), was guilty of
multiple unpunished war crimes, and had fearsome WMD threatened Cuba. The US has claimed
repeatedly that their goal is regime change, military if necessary. By
contemporary thinking, Castro had the right, if not the obligation, to arm
himself with Soviet WMD and strike the US before it was too late. Sounds
ridiculous, right? But this is the world according to Bush types, and I’m
sure we don’t want anything to do with it. As I said before, the Neoconservative
doctrine and preventative war policy would be almost valid if the USA was an
infallibly just, wise, and moral nation – though our foreign policy in the
last 100 years would suggest otherwise. I know perfection is impossible, but
the major problem with the Bush line of thinking is one unlucky slip-up and
you get a major costly scare (like CMC) if not outright nuclear war.

Say Iraq went splendidly (and it possibly could have, with only a handful of
different decisions), and Bush is riding high and getting a big head. So his
cabinet targets Iran next. The students are fighting for more democracy, their
leaders are repressive and hate America (and sponsor int'l terror), they have
a shit load of oil, and their WMD program is indeterminate, so it seems like a
reasonable candidate for Neoconservative-style regime change by force. So we bomb and
invade, but it turns out Tehran does have nukes, and launches them at Tel
Aviv. Hamas, Hezbollah, Qaeda, and others retaliate by attacking every
American installation in the Middle East. Israel responds by nuking Damascus,
Beirut, Cairo, plus Riyadh for good measure. Saudi/Iraqi oil production is
stifled, and what’s left of the Iranian military cuts off the Strait of
Hormuz so no Gulf oil reaches the West for weeks. China and the EU (minus UK)
cut off all economic and diplomatic ties with the rogue USA to avoid Islamist
backlash. After we seize Venezuelan oil wells, still gas-starved and
infuriated Americans demand that Russia divert its European and Chinese bound
oil to the USA or face bitter consequences. Hardliners overthrow Putin or
convince him to nuke America to “save Russia”. Endgame. It is fairly
preposterous, but also frighteningly plausible if cooler heads don’t prevail
(and “coolheaded” is not one of the first qualities that come to mind
about the current Admin).

We saw how “doves” like JFK barely avoided nuclear war in 1962, with so
many things going wrong as fear and aggression boiled over (overzealous
blockaders, ill-timed nuclear testing and saber-rattling troop exercises on
the Gulf Coast, the USAF increasing DEFCON status without White House
approval, a possible foiled coup in Moscow, a U2 getting shot down). It would
have been doom had Arkhipov followed his orders from Stavka. Now consider that
Bush is far from dovish and makes no qualms about overt aggression in the
logically illogical cause of security. 9/11 was bad enough and caused such
panic/paranoia/belligerence, but one CMC-esque slip-up and no telling what his
trigger-happy war cabinet will do. America cannot be defeated by any foreign
foe, but we have seen how easy it would be for us to destroy ourselves
(ironically in the name of our own preservation).

McNamara also said that JFK asked his staff to prepare a Cuban invasion months
before CMC, and the plan was ready to execute in a week’s notice (from The
Kennedy Tapes, Harvard). He said, “Cuba was justified in fearing an
attack.” The CIA managed bombing and incendiary raids by Cuban exile pilots
since 1959. In response, Cuba went to the UN Security Council in 1960 with
rock solid documentation of 20 attacks, but to no avail. US Ambassador Lodge
promised that America had no aggressive purpose against Cuba; all the while
Bay of Pigs was being planned. Castro understandably prepared to defend
himself, but CIA chief Dulles asked Britain and other Euro allies to deny him
arms shipments – to deliberately push Cuba towards the Soviets. Cuba armed
with Soviet weapons would provide an excellent pretext for escalation if not
invasion, as was the case with Guatemala (stop the spread of int'l bolshevism
and all that jazz, heck even selectively invoke Monroe Doctrine while you're
at it). In a memorandum to JFK in ’61, Arthur Schlesinger warned Kennedy of
a major diplomatic fallout from a proxy army invasion of Cuba (a la Bay of
Pigs, which did in fact happen). So it would be better to bait Castro into
sending troops to a neighbor like Haiti (as the CIA helped bait the USSR into
invading Afghan), trying to encourage more communism revolts and morally
justifying American intervention. The Joint Chiefs had similar thoughts, and
provided McNamara with even more extreme & devious plans in Feb ’62. Some
ideas were staging the destruction of a navy vessel in GuantanĂ¡mo to repeat
“Remember the Maine” fervor, shooting down a drone plane near Cuban
airspace that was supposedly transporting US college students on spring break,
or using Soviet incendiaries to bomb crops on Cuba’s neighbors to frame them
for aggression.

By Aug ’62 anti-Cuban hostilities increased, such as strafing of a beach
hotel where Soviet contractors were known to be staying, and destroying sugar
exports. All this was done by exiled Cuban paramilitaries given safe haven in
the States. Is it any wonder why Castro asked for help and CMC ensued 2 months
later? Supposedly JFK and Khruschev agreed on 10/30 to abort sabotage
operations, but some continued in secret. Just before his murder, JFK approved
a CIA plan for proxy forces to destroy major shipping and production
facilities (Garthoff, “Reflections”). They obviously didn’t learn
anything from CMC. Plans to kill Castro were prolific, and sadly the exploding
cigar ploy was real. One of Nixon’s first measures as president was to
increase covert ops in Cuba, and anti-Cuban terror peaked under his Admin.
Bombings and raids persisted into the ‘90s, with Miami based fronts like
Cuban-American National Foundation distributing CIA funding. Known south
American criminals like Luis Posada Carriles and Orlando Bosch organized raids
and bombings on DC's behalf, the worst being the downing of a Cubana passenger
airliner. The FBI had documented over 30 counts of terrorism against Bosch,
but in ’89 Bush I gave him a presidential pardon at the behest of
Governor Jeb and South Florida Cuban expatriates. So it’s a bit hypocritical for
Bush II to accuse the Taleban of harboring Osama and other terrorists while we
did the same thing (even though Bosch probably is responsible for fewer
murders than OBL, and both were CIA-trained anticommunists). Under kind
Clinton’s leadership, the Cuban threat was downgraded to “negligible” in
’98, but economic sanctions persisted. Now Bush II is resuming anti-Cuban
animosity.

Sorry I’ve gone on so long, but it’s an interesting story – and of
course this is only the tip of the iceberg. I’ll end with this quote from
the Mexican ambassador in ‘61 to JFK when he was trying to rally support in
the Americas for anti-Cuba action, “if we publicly declare that Cuba is a
threat to our security, 40 million Mexicans will die laughing.” (Leacock,
“Requiem for Revolution”) This is especially fitting, considering the
USA’s aggressive history with Cuba and the fact that no Cuban attack has
taken place on US soil as far as we know (unless you buy into the JFK
assassination Cuba connection – which was more likely perpetrated by
anticommunist Cuban exiles than Castro’s actual agents). So we can
understand if most of the world finds it sadly humorous that we disguise our
imperialist aggression as defensive precautions.

Similar to the buildup to the Iraq invasion, Europe was not consulted by the
USA during the CMC. The US NATO commander put our air forces on high alert
without discussing the consequences with other treaty nations. I know we have
the "right" to protect ourselves without passing the "international test"
(vintage 2004 campaign rhetoric), but what is the point of an alliance that
you don't utilize? JFK’s NSA McGeorge Bundy suggested that Euros “feel
that they are a part of it … that they know,” but basically limit their
involvement to observers (even though Europe’s destruction during CMC was as
imminent as ours). But JFK’s ExComm was concerned that Europe’s pleas for
calm would undermine potential aggression against Cuba. America’s hysteria
over Cuba seem a bit foolish, considering the fact that Europe
had lived peacefully for over a decade (without freaking out) under the very
real and closer threat of Soviet nuclear missiles. JFK even said that any dissent or vetoes of US
actions during CMC were unacceptable, sadly akin to W’s treatment of our
noncommittal allies prior to Iraq. So I guess the take home message is:
nuclear holocaust almost took place, and its origins can be traced to sloppy,
unlawful efforts for regime change of an unfriendly but basically
harmless/insignificant nation. Things can spiral out of control very easily in
geopolitics. Obviously we would like to think we are more educated, civil, and
secure these days, being the last superpower left. Devious secrets are harder
to keep with more high tech communication and a widespread press (that may or
may not report responsibly, even if they uncovered something juicy). Our
current trade deficit and foreign energy addiction are sources of concern -
they could be manipulated to motivate horrendous actions, just like the Cold
War land grab policy to counter the Reds. But again, W has sought regime
change in Afghan and Iraq, even though such nations posed “negligible” (at
best) threat to the USA and our security/economic interests in the Middle East
(apart from their oil reserves or proximity to oil). We narrowly avoided
disaster once, and these days the Kremlin can no longer keep us in check, and there may not be an Arkhipov to bail us out at the critical moment. Who knows where this clumsy, misguided, and sadly all-too-familiar effort will ultimately take us?