Showing posts with label fox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fox. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

The peculiar and hilarous Fox, GOP, and Trump dynamic

I was impressed with the tough and direct questions the FNC moderators asked of the kiddie-table and prime time GOP candidates (addressing and not ignoring their glaring liabilities). That makes sense, as I suppose it's in the GOP's interests to thin the (huge) heard as early as possible so they don't waste resources/political capital for the coming war vs. Hillary.

Personally, I don't think Kelly's sexism question was journalistically or politically out of line. Trump has not held office and has not behaved like he deserved to hold office in the past (esp. vis-a-vis women who are >50% of voters), so why should America elect him now? He of course felt that question was unfair and "impolite" (teapot, kettle anyone?), but Kelly never forced Trump to say/tweet those disparaging things in the past. You make your bed, you lay in it man. Nothing is off limits when you're running for president.

Anyway, I thought that exchange would really hurt Trump and the GOP, who have already suffered from major rejection by many female demos. But strangely the opposite happened. Trump's numbers held steady or maybe even rose, and FNC got blasted with angry viewer feedback defending Trump and criticizing Kelly and her network. Trump did a "genius" thing and flipped the issue from one of his sexism/rudeness/unstatesmanship to one of media bias/political correctness (stuff that is hurting America) - the latter really resonates with his supporters and some conservatives.

He must have prepared for that, and you have to give him credit for delivering it so persuasively. His daughter Ivanka allegedly urged him to tone down the racist/sexist/offensive tone of his campaign, but he dismissed her because every time he did something outrageous (even the McCain comment that I thought was going to sink him - but it turns out a lot of conservatives don't really like establishment McCain anymore - esp. for losing to Obama), his numbers held steady or rose. I guess it's like saying, "Why should I reform and get a legal job when I'm making so much money selling dope, and not getting caught by the cops?"

The FNC base is a little weird. They hate and distrust the (elitist, liberal-leaning) mainstream media, yet still watch FNC (the top TV news property in the US by far). So Fox has to straddle that fine line of being the MSM (being part of the institute of journalism) and hating on the MSM (mocking and rebelling against the institution of journalism). This is problematic at times because from segment to segment, you never quite know what you're going to get. Certainly their opinion shows are more of the latter.

To wrap up, the business-first, politics-second Roger Ailes saw the reaction to the Trump-Kelly spat and was worried that defending Kelly (and her legitimate question) would piss off many viewers and hurt the company. This is probably why most of the other candidates (sans Paul, who is desperate to stay relevant) didn't take the opportunity to go after Trump on national TV. They talked crap at their lightly-covered campaign events, but not on the big stage because (1) more Trump feuding only seems to benefit Trump and (2) they risk a Kelly-esque backlash and don't want to be labeled as establishment cronies (the part of the GOP that Trump has called "stupid" and blamed for losing to the Dems - maybe that is accurate).

So Ailes personally talked to Trump to smooth things over, and probably invited him on the network soon (he has had many interviews in the past). Kelly had to deliver a highly sanitized closure statement and was even subtly congratulating Trump for his recent political success (gotta throw his Jupiter-sized ego a bone). That must have sucked for her. So once again, score one for money/sexism/cynicism at the expense of decency/women/journalism.

PS - it's pretty telling that on Trump's web page, there is ZERO CONTENT regarding his political platform and policy ideas (oh yeah, because they don't exist beyond his sound bites). He makes Rick Perry look like a wonk in comparison.

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Hollow criticism by the right of the Iran nuclear deal

As Obama said to the conservatives, "What is their alternative?" I'm sure some of them would publicly or privately call for war, or at least stronger sanctions (I'll get to why that won't work in a bit). Maybe others like Trump think that Obama's team are amateur negotiators compared to the Iranians, and only he could outsmart them to a better deal (he did ghost-write "The Art of the Deal" after all!).

The goal is not to turn Iran into a model nation and have them cease all their questionable/negative activities - that's not going to happen for decades (no matter what leverage or violence we apply). The goal and scope were always limited: to stop or ideally reverse Iran's progress towards bomb capability (i.e. right now they could possibly get a working bomb in 3 months if they go all-out; let's make some changes so that time frame gets a lot longer), and enable the int'l community to detect whether they are cheating. To address some criticisms:
  • Why take our foot off the gas with sanctions, they are crippling the Iranian economy and keeping them subdued?
    • The goal of the int'l sanctions was always to force Iran to the bargaining table, not to stop the bomb or make the country suffer (which is what is happening - as usual the people are hurting more than the regime).
    • If the talks fell apart with no deal, faith in the sanctions would dissolve (they did not accomplish their stated goal), and most nations would pull out except the US (because sanctions hurt other nations too besides Iran - especially energy-thirsty China).
    • Since the GOP doesn't understand trade and economics, they think unilateral US sanctions are great - but actually they don't do anything but create missed opportunities for us. Iran will get what they need from the hundreds of other nations. Since we have a strong role in the global fin. system - maybe we could cause some havoc there, but again - it's not going to stop Iran from getting a bomb.

  • Could Iran use the sanctions relief to invest in better weapons tech and more clandestine development activities?
    • Maybe, but they take on a huge risk by doing so, and the chance of success is low. If they can build a new high-tech production facility without inspectors, spies, regulators, and satellites noticing - well that is kind of our fault then.
    • It's possible that they will use their increased wealth to boost their unfavorable activities in the region (supporting terrorism, meddling in Iraq, propping up Assad, etc.). But frankly those pains are secondary compared to a nuclear Iran and a certain attack by Israel. 

  • Did Obama's team just negotiate poorly, and a better deal was possible?
    • I'd like to hear how the GOP would have achieved a better outcome:
      • Vast majority of centrifuges idled (not sure if destroyed, or idled)
      • Vast majority of their fissile material confiscated
      • Fairly good access by int'l inspectors
      • Hard caps on enrichment far below weapons-grade
      • No one died
    • Iran's carrot was to greatly set back their bomb production, and the 5+1's carrot was lifting economic sanctions. It was a fair swap, like a prisoner exchange.
    • In the GOP dreamworld, I am sure that they would hope to get 99% of what they want, while Iran settles for 1% of what they want. But unless you have hypnotism powers or a gun to their head, how do you get them to just fold and agree to your demands? A deal has to be mutually beneficial, and even if you are worried about benefiting your enemy, you accept a deal where the net gain to you is larger than no deal at all. And as I stated above, no deal was a bad situation.
      • What else did critics want, a full regime change, recognition and peace with Israel, and renouncing of terrorism? If they want those things, then they'll have to pay for it (or at least build some relationship/trust first). So far, all they have given Iran is hate.
      • They think Obama is weak and America shouldn't concede anything, we should just tell the world what's up and then they obey gratefully. Well the rest of the world isn't in awe of US "authority" like the GOP is, esp. after the War on Terror.  

  • The Fox op-ed claims that Iran will exchange its partially enriched uranium for "raw" uranium that they can enrich in the future. There is no evidence that this will happen or the int'l community will accept this. And if you exchange the same mass of partially enriched U with 0% raw U, that will always make you further from a bomb. Fox needs to learn some math.
  • Fox brought up more canards. The deal permits Iran to have some research centrifuges which could potentially improve enrichment. But there are so few of them that it can't make up for all the normal centrifuges that they have shuttered. So again, they are reaching for reasons to complain.
  • I don't know much about the ballistic missile part of the deal. Maybe Fox is on to something there, but Iran's missiles can already reach Israel, Riyadh, and maybe Berlin. What does it matter if they can reach London too? They can't hit the US in the foreseeable future.
  • Critics keep saying that this deal "paves the way" for Iran to get a bomb (a Bibi-ism). I just don't see any facts that support that claim. It's not a perfect deal, but no deal in the history of the world has been. If Iran can do all the sneaky things that critics claim to make a bomb, then they can do that without a deal too (and faster). Again, their argument is as well built as Bush's plan for post-war Iraq.
    • And the GOP are some to talk: they haven't brokered a meaningful and legit int'l deal since Nixon went to China. And if Nixon tried something similar today, he would get skewered by the right. 
    • But all of this might not matter if Congress has a veto-proof majority to scuttle the deal anyway! 
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It still seems early for a lot of criticism, NPR interviewee didn't know how they were eliminating currently low enriched uranium as of a couple days ago.  So I imagine new info will keep coming.
The big concern that most have is that this does pave the way to a bomb, it is just a long way.  Over the next decade or so they get increased centrifuge numbers, more low enriched uranium stockpile allowed, etc.  The presumption is at some point between now and then Iran will have money and start to cheat.  And they will cheat for some amount of time before they get caught.  And at that time will the community bring back all the sanctions?  Will Iran have enough cash to not be limited?  So now instead of poor with a bomb they are rich with a bomb and more time and money spent on delivery of the bomb.


Personally I think that isn't right and the real alternative they are arguing is hold the line until they have to be bombed.  


I also think money and access to world markets will bring about a lot of westernization to Iran.  The web, foreign investors, generic trade, all tends to make the regular people richer which leads to a desire for personal freedoms.  Same thing happening in China right now.  Iran is much younger and better educated, on average, compared to China I believe.  


Also, no chance for Congress to block it anyways.  Obama vetoes anything he doesn't like.

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Yeah I agree that the criticism seems premature - like they're predicting a divorce during the wedding reception. They could be right, but it would be just a lucky guess at this point.

I see what you mean about "paving the way" semantics. No deal would have also paved the way, and faster as you said. At least this deal "freezes" the problem for a decade (if all goes according to plan, which rarely happens), which is hopefully enough time to broker the next deal (maybe a better deal). Kicking the can down the road is not ideal, but better than tripping over the can now.

The deal does not guarantee cover for Iran to cheat with no consequences. As you said, it's possible but difficult that they will continue to develop (under the nose of inspectors) with their new cash. But if/when that is discovered (likely before an operational bomb), the 5+1 will retaliate and take measures to severely curtail any additional progress. For example, if they are 30% to a bomb now, and later they cheat to get to 50%, then other nations will make sure it is very, very hard for them to progress any further (potentially through military means). So in a sense, it doesn't even matter that they got to 50%, because they were found out and punished. Just as long as they don't get to 90%+. I wonder if the deal has conditions though if cheating is detected - what will explicitly happen to Iran?

Of course the alternative is them developing their bomb in secret, where we are shut out and have no idea what % of the way they are at, unless we have great espionage. Remember North Korea - one day they just detonated a test device, and that's how we found out they had bombs. Obviously we don't want to repeat that, and Israel would never allow it to get that far anyway (with severe global consequences).

Also agreed on the benefits of commerce to open up Iran and make it a better global citizen. Transparency rarely is bad thing, unless you're a bad guy. Obviously with North Korea we've seen that pariah status doesn't help a nation change, hurts pro-Western reformers, and only solidifies the tyrants' grip on power. I guess that's partly why the Chinese Communist Party tries to limit external influences through their firewall and repressive policies. But as Iran opens up and their younger generation gets more power (and hopefully their secular leaders will continue to be "moderate" like Rouhani), there could be positive social changes (that hopefully lead to better foreign policy).

Obama could veto Congress' blockage, but not if they have a 2/3 majority.  

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Saturday, June 28, 2014

Cheney tries to blame the Iraq chaos on Obama

When FNC calls you out like you were a Democrat involved in Benghazi, you know you're a major tool, Cheney.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/19/megyn-kelly-dick-cheney-iraq_n_5510635.html
Tricky Dick 2.0 wrote a WSJ op-ed recently insinuating that the situation in Iraq now is Obama's fault. While I tend to agree that Obama's cabinet was a bit too eager to put Iraq in the rear view mirror without sufficient monitoring of the screwed up Maliki regime (easy to say in hindsight though), blaming Obama for what has recently transpired is like blaming the plumber for not fixing the toilet you clogged fast enough.

Obama never supported the Iraq invasion, when Dems like Hillary, Pelosi, and Biden caved to the post-9/11 mania. When he took office in 2008, the majority of his voters wanted us out of Iraq, especially because the Surge and Sunni Awakening seemed to put us on better footing to do so. Clearly we could have done more to ensure a better functioning state of Iraq, but I don't think it was feasible to have maintained a Korea-like long-term military presence there as McCain types claim that they advocated all along (even if that would have prevented the ISIS-led Sunni offensive).
For Cheney and other Bushies to tsk tsk Obama, while totally dismissing their past mistakes and role in the current mess, is a level of gall that I cannot possible hope to comprehend. Let's remember that the premise for the neocon War on Terror was basically: states that harbor terrorists are equivalent enemies to the terrorists themselves, and forcibly removing threatening regimes and replacing them with western democracy/freedom will make us safer. Well, Al Qaeda and Shia militias were not able to exist in Saddam's Iraq. Our flawed occupation allowed jihadists to congregate in Iraq, and enabled a state sponsor of terrorism, Iran, to indirectly kill Americans and gain more influence in the region. The regime change in Baghdad that we orchestrated has replaced a brutal, corrupt Sunni Ba'athist dictator with a less brutal but more corrupt and sectarian Shia gang. Well, at least the Kurds got semi-autonomy. So the Bushies' hubris and incompetence pretty much negated their own vision for national security, to the tune of over $1T in costs, tens of thousands of US troops killed/wounded, and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis dead.

While Cheney types never really acknowledge or apologize for the fact that there were no WMDs, they keep trying to twist the record by claiming that they made "the right call" at the time, given the facts. The whole world wanted Saddam gone and there was virtual consensus that he had weapons. Sure, Saddam had few international friends, but I think most of us would have preferred him in power a little longer vs. breaking int'l laws and condemning Iraq to civil war. And maybe there was near consensus among the ignorant Congress (after sufficient bribery and intimidation), but the UN and international community was far from convinced about Saddam's arsenal and collaborations with Osama. But rather than face up to the truth, it's easier for the Bushies to retreat to their self-righteous dream world and dump their garbage on the black Muslim socialist instead. I suppose I am not surprised with this behavior, but I am surprised that the MSM would continue to give these discredited, disgraceful failures a podium from which to white-wash their transgressions and disseminate more BS.

With all the Iraq stuff still fresh in the headlines in 2004 (but apparently unable to penetrate the Bush bubble), remember how infallible, god-anointed Dubya couldn't even cite a single mistake during his presidency when asked by the media? These are the people who bullied us into Iraq, who are mostly responsible for the current chaos (at least from the western side of the equation), and who have the nerve to criticize others about it now.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Update on fracking and water use

http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/25/industry-boos-oscar-nod-for-gasland/
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110225/ap_en_ot/us_oscars_gasland

If you recall this email a while back, the "Gasland" film I reviewed was nominated for Best Documentary Oscar of 2010. Of course prior to the awards ceremony, a gas drilling industry trade group petitioned the MPAA to decertify the film as propaganda instead of documentary. Similar industry protests were made over "Sicko" and "An Inconvenient Truth". But probably the criticism only served to increase attention for the film, and the MPAA responded to the gas industry saying that they should "trust the intelligence" of the judges to know a documentary when they see it, and tell fact from fiction. While the film of course has an agenda, and some scenes are poorly executed and open to criticism, it was director Josh Fox's first film (made on quite a low budget as well), so to be nominated for the highest award in all of film-making must mean his argument has some merit. 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_drilling_chemicals

Here is some validation for Fox's claims: 3 Congressmen released a report investigating 14 gas companies and the secret chemical mixtures they use during fracking. They said that millions of gallons of fracking fluid, containing up to 29 known or suspected carcinogens, were pumped into wells during domestic drilling from 2005-2009, with very little of that material recaptured by the drillers. So we can only conclude that the rest of it still remains in the ground, possibly leeching into aquifers that humans, wildlife, and livestock depend on. So how could these poisons, many of which are prohibited or on a "watch list" under the Clean Air/Water Acts, be covertly used in unregulated drilling? Congress granted drillers a waiver.

Methanol was the most common questionable substance used in fracking, and this is what it can do to you: http://www.epa.gov/chemfact/f_methan.txt. In my lab, I can lose my bonus or be fired for dumping even an ounce of methanol down the sink that drains to the Bay (not to mention my company getting fined), yet gas companies can get away with pumping untold gallons of it straight into the ground? And if the process is so safe as they claim, why be so secretive about their use of methanol and other poisons?

This may also be of interest to you, kind of an update on the status of drinking water:

http://www.npr.org/2011/04/11/135241362/the-worldwide-thirst-for-clean-drinking-water
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/06/we-use-how-much-water.php

Americans per capita consume 100 gallons of potable water each day from our daily activities (over 2X the global average, and 3X more than the average Chinese). That is pretty obscene, but when you factor in the water used in electricity generation for our energy needs, our consumption rises to 350 gallons/day. So cutting back on energy use is a win-win-win proposition, saving multiple precious resources and reducing pollution/environmental degradation/dependence on foreign oil dictators. Also adopting a vegetarian diet (avoiding beef consumption especially, since 2,400 L goes into making 1 burger patty) can dramatically reduce one's water footprint. Indian society would collapse if their people had American diets (30% of India is vegetarian). While India and China's per capita consumption is low, their massive populations are putting huge strains on their precarious water supplies (and climate change, standard of living improvements, and population growth will only make the situation worse in the future).

We wouldn't expect it, but leisure cities in Republican states are leading the way for water conservation. Las Vegas and Orlando have some of the most modern and strict water conservation policies, really because they have no choice (Las Vegas is the driest metro area in America with 4" of annual rainfall, and there have been recent severe droughts in the US Southeast). Those cities are known for water waste from golf courses and entertainment, and it's true that their economies still depend on those industries. But Orlando set up a parallel reclaimed water system, where household waste water is treated to near-potable safety levels, and then pumped out to water golf courses and sports fields, since it really makes no sense to waste drinking water on grass. Vegas pays residents to change out their lawns for desert landscaping, and issues huge fines for water overages, especially at golf courses. Therefore, golf courses now adopt drip irrigation for each individual shrub and putting green, instead of the usual wasteful area sprinklers. So even though Vegas has grown in population by 50% since 2000, their overall water consumption is flat, and actually down from 1990 levels. Imagine if progressive California could do that, but then we have the farm lobby, and suburbanites don't want their streets ripped up to lay new and better pipe. Plumbing is of great concern, since a scary amount of clean water (1/6 of total consumption) is lost from leaky pipes and toilets each day.

The author's #1 water concern for the future: corporate control of potable water.

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The problem with leaky pipes, etc is there is no good/easy way to detect a leak.  The only way for me as a homeowner to determine if i have a leaky anything that isn't a faucet is to either eventually notice some damage (which means the leak is either quite severe and/or in the drywall) or turn off my entire water supply and come back some undetermined amount of time later t see if the water meter moved.  If my water company put an ethernet output from the water meter and i could log in, take the output from excel or something, man it would be easy to check for leaky water or to see exactly how much water i use on sprinklers (since i generally am not using water at 4am), etc.  Those tools just aren't available for whatever reason.  

Imagine how easy it would be to conserve (or not to) if you knew in real dollars what every toilet flush cost your or how much water you wasted leaving the faucet on while you brushed your teeth.

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Yeah seriously, I guess we should get in with Bechtel or Schlumberger exploiting some water-starved third world hole: http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=6670

I agree about leak detection. Like that author said, our water system is really 50-100 years old. We take water for granted, and barely commit any resources for maintenance and monitoring. I think he said in his city of Chicago, they schedule pipe replacement at a 160-year rate (meaning they do it so slowly, it would take that long to replace the whole system).

I agree that costs for water, gas, beef, etc. need to better align with the true social costs, but of course companies don't want to acknowledge the externalities associated with their products. Since clean water is a vital resource, I think everyone should have the "right" to access a minimal amount of it, so I wouldn't just advocate an across-the-board rate hike. If we invested in a better monitoring system, each citizen/farm/company could get an adjusted quota of X gallons/month, charged a reasonable rate. For those who exceed the quota, they would pay through the nose. So we would still be free to consume more water if it was that important to us (for watering the lawn, swimming pool, etc.), but the price would reflect the social harm we are doing.

Industry and farming use much more water than households. So this would force farmers to switch leaner irrigation and companies to adopt less water-intensive operations. It might reduce the diversity of available produce at Safeway, or increase the costs of some goods, but we're talking about survival here. And the $ the gov't collects from water overages could then be invested into water research or subsidies to reward people/farms/firms for buying water sparing tech or improving their pipes. Like Orlando, we have to implement a parallel reclaimed water system. Factories, golf courses, etc. shouldn't be allowed to use fresh/clean/reservoir water. All this would require a huge investment to set up, but down the road it could pay for itself.

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Of course any extra fees gotten by the gov would invariably be used for something besides improving water efficiency.  When social security runs surplus, does social security get reinvested?  When the budget surplus happened under clinton, did the debt get paid down?  A problem but i suppose a good one to have.
I feel like water is a lot like oil in the sense that no one is going to sweat it until they can't get it.  Unlike oil i've only got ~ 3 days to figure out how to get it or I die.  But no one is going to pay meaningful attention to the problem until it is too late. Perhaps a fundamental human flaw and perhaps just an institutional problem, either way if we aren't in trouble our children or our children's children will be. 

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Yes, you are right about inflows of cash to the gov't. But at least higher prices will encourage people to use less. It is true that water and oil management are quite similar. I guess since the Cold War, this is the first time that humanity has had to pay for water. Of course we get a clean, virtually limitless supply of water in our homes and businesses, and that costs something. But humans are not used to seeing water as a commodity. Imagine if it was trading on some exchange like gold and pork!

I think due to globalization, wealth is increasing in a lot of previously poor places, and those people will want better standards of living. We already see this effect with energy (and food to some degree), but soon it will be clean water. But as you said, no one wants to confront the problem until it's too late. Actually I would expect China to be the most proactive due to their centralized gov't. They are transitioning to a less carbon-intensive economy faster than any other nation. It's not like China is a poster child for Greenpeace, but hopefully they can enact smart water management that we in the West could also copy (if Congress ever does anything).

Friday, January 28, 2011

Egypt unrest: does America stand up for the cause of liberty or not?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110127/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt_protest

In the recent SoU speech, Obama did offer token support to the Tunisian reform movement (as if 30% of Americans could even find Tunisia on a map), and he delivered that famous address in Cairo trying to repair relations with the Muslim world and encourage democratic changes in repressive Mideast regimes. But now that the Mubarak dictatorship in Egypt is at its weakest state in decades, Washington is deathly silent. Heck even this AP article barely explains why Egyptians are protesting to begin with (tired of decades of martial law, repressed expression, huge wealth gap and unemployment, etc.), I suppose feeding more misunderstanding and the stereotype of the angry Arab. Mubarak is a former military officer who has been president since 1981, miraculously winning numerous landslide re-elections similar to the ousted Tunisian despot (and now Mubarak is grooming his son to take over as head of state, yeah very democratic). Maybe part of that is due to his thugs beating down opposition parties, even the deceptively named Muslim Brotherhood, which is mostly non-violent, advocates many Western-friendly reforms, and has nothing to do with extremist Islam. Mubarak outlaws public demonstrations and speaking out against the government too. Yet US leaders have supported this man for years, even selling him weapons and such. Well, after some deal-making Carter got Egypt to recognize Israel, and they do control the Suez Canal after all, so we have to buddy up to them, no matter what type of ruler they have.

America claims that it opposes tyranny, and we supposedly stood by the Iranian anti-government protests a few years ago, which is pretty much the same situation as Egypt except that their government is Islamic and pursuing nukes. We supported Kosovo against Serbia, and Bush even recognized Kosovo's independence a few years ago, much to the dismay of Serbia and Russia - diplomatic ties with those nations are much more critical than with Kosovo/Albania. Then recently a European report concluded that the current Kosovo regime is led by criminals. So we go out of our way to bomb and kill hundreds of Serbs to ostensibly defend the human rights of Kosovar Albanians, then legitimized the state of Kosovo, only to watch as a criminal regime develops. And yet we also tolerate regimes in Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Egypt that routinely commit abuses? How can we expect anyone to take our foreign policy seriously?

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More on Egypt: http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/2011/01/on_egypt_white_house_is_ignore.html

"If there is a democratic revolution, US-Egyptian relationships are in for a world of trouble... There will be some anti-US sentiment among the protesters because they believe the US has been trying to prop up the regime until the last moment."

Or is the US (irrationally) scared "that democracy would 'open up the flood gates' to Islamic revolution"?

-BBC

From Nobel laureate and Egyptian opposition leader Mohammed El-Baradei:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-26/mohamed-elbaradei-the-return-of-the-challenger/

"If you would like to know why the United States does not have credibility in the Middle East, [our handling of Egypt over the years] is precisely the answer... You reaffirmed their belief that you are applying a double standard for your friends, and siding with an authoritarian regime just because you think it represents your interests. We are staring at social disintegration, economic stagnation, political repression, and we do not hear anything from you, the Americans, or for that matter from the Europeans.

Of course, you in the West have been sold the idea that the only options in the Arab world are between authoritarian regimes and Islamic jihadists. That’s obviously bogus. If we are talking about Egypt, there is a whole rainbow variety of people who are secular, liberal, market-oriented, and if you give them a chance they will organize themselves to elect a government that is modern and moderate."

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I boycott most cable news, but part of me was curious as to how FOX may spin the events in Egypt into their worldview. I shouldn't have wondered. Warning: if you click the link to the Glenn Beck footage on YouTube, it's like "The Ring" and you will die in 3 days from a stroke (the brain can only handle so much idiocy), unless you show it to someone else first (pick someone you don't like).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PH7GPPpsw6g

http://news.yahoo.com/s/dailybeast/12199_glennbecksegyptfreakouthowtheuprisingsplitsusconservatives;_ylt=Ahl6zEsNcBy8S9ddBSa8g3Fg.3QA;_ylu=X3oDMTRtOWhxZDE0BGFzc2V0Ay9zL2RhaWx5YmVhc3QvMTIxOTlfZ2xlbm5iZWNrc2VneXB0ZnJlYWtvdXRob3d0aGV1cHJpc2luZ3NwbGl0c3VzY29uc2VydmF0aXZlcwRjY29kZQNtcF9lY184XzEwBGNwb3MDMgRwb3MDMgRzZWMDeW5fdG9wX3N0b3JpZXMEc2xrA3RoZXJpZ2h0c2VneQ--

Since the war in Iraq, it seems, Beck, like others on the right, has changed his mind about the desirability of Middle Eastern democracy. It was only a few years ago, you'll remember, that conservatives were crowing about a new birth of freedom in the Muslim world.

You couldn't make this stuff up: "We've shown you tonight that Hamas, Code Pink"—the feminist anti-war group—"and the Muslim Brotherhood are all linked together." With the future bleak, Beck called on his viewers to pray for "our way of life" and for Israel.

"The whole world starts to implode... This is coordinated."

It must be hilarious to watch Beck play Risk. So it's fine when a bunch of Anglo-Saxon slave-owning farmers demand independence from the tax-and-spend British Empire, but when brown-skinned Muslims take to the streets, tired of their president-for-life and 30% unemployment, it's a radical fundamentalist-progressive conspiracy (if you could get those two camps to conspire together, you would be a master negotiator). All his paranoid talk about the Islamist insurrection spreading across the Mideast and even penetrating Europe is basically McCarthyism 2.0. We later found out that Cold War commies had a really tough time getting along, much less unite and overthrow the capitalist pigs. Does Beck really think that a unified Muslim caliphate will suddenly form across dozens of nations, ethnic groups, sects, etc. in order to destroy us? Even the Muslims in tiny Palestine can't get along. Yes when you dare to let people determine their own destinies, sometimes the results are not to your liking. But that doesn't mean that the worst-case scenario will occur every damn time. This is not an easy situation for the US and other Western powers, and maybe inaction is better than intervention (even on the side of "liberty") and possible backlash from our perceived meddling.

I think El Baradei ruffled a lot of feathers at FOX when he compared the Muslim Brotherhood's influence in Egyptian politics to that of the Evangelicals in the US. I'd probably go further and say that the Evangelicals are more of a threat to Western democracy.

But it is interesting how the Egypt situation is creating a rift among conservatives:

It was never entirely clear how the right's support for political freedom in the Muslim world meshed with its overwhelming contempt for Muslim people... an interesting divide is opening up on the right. On one side are those who actually took all that democracy stuff seriously. On the other are those who see the Muslim world only as an enemy to be crushed and controlled. With a Republican primary approaching, it remains to be seen which view of Middle Eastern policy will triumph among conservatives. 


Not surprisingly, the politicians closest to the religious right have been the quickest to side with Mubarak... At least some neoconservatives, meanwhile, have shown an admirable consistency, urging support for Egypt's demonstrators. Michael Rubin of the AEI, for example, wrote a piece for Forbes.com headlined "The U.S. Should Not Fear Regime Change." 


This highlights an interesting difference of opinion between neoconservatives and conservative Israelis, who are often thought to move in lockstep. "Israelis aren't on board on the democracy game," says Rubin. "They'd much rather rely on aging dictators to keep things quiet. They're perfectly happy selling out Lebanon to Syria, and perfectly happy selling out the Egyptian people to Hosni Mubarak."

- Michelle Goldberg

Sunday, June 27, 2010

You could be living in "Gasland"

http://www.gaslandthemovie.com/
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=127593937
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/06/21/127988546/gasland-hbo-gas-drilling-film-exposes-drinking-water-worries

HBO is airing a documentary series this month, and one of the films is called "Gasland" by Josh Fox, about the problems associated with domestic natural gas extraction in American communities. The filmmaker was actually approached by a gas drilling company to lease his family's land for extraction for $100,000, and he first wanted to research the pros and cons before making a decision. What he discovered was so angering and shocking that he decided to drive across America to interview people living with the consequences of gas drilling for a documentary. Of course they were unaware of the impending BP disaster when the broadcast schedule was planned, but the content is now all too familiar. This is part of the true cost of our energy consumption habits.

The natural gas industry touts its product as cheap and "green", and yes its combustion is less polluting than petroleum and coal (but only 25% so). Plus it can be used in a variety of applications (from large scale electricity generation to vehicle fuel), extraction infrastructure is fairly compact, and we even have plenty of domestic reserves, so it sounds like a great energy source. But like ethanol, natural gas is dirtier than most of us know, and the companies tasked with its extraction have committed a litany of environmental and ethical violations. This controversy is not well publicized maybe because US natural gas reserves mostly exist in poorer, rural counties in the northeast, mountain states, and the southern Midwest. Much of the land is federally-owned, and those who live there don't have much of a political voice. The residents are generally less-educated and lower-income, so when a Halliburton-type drilling company approaches them with a fat check to buy the rights to drill on their land, they tend to sign. Companies give all sorts of guarantees that the drilling is safe and you won't even notice, and the rural residents are from the "my word is my bond" tradition, so they trust them without reading the dozens of pages of fine print. And if pollution problems are found and admitted to, the companies often pay off the victims into silence (or underpay for the true damage they inflict) and keep drilling the next day. But some short-changed victims were so mad that they broke their non-disclosure agreements to speak on camera. Even if landowners refuse to sign with drillers, they can still get screwed. If their neighbors agree to lease, their property value may sink because now they live next to an industrial site. By that stroke, drillers and your neighbors can collectively force you off your land by making your property virtually worthless if you resist.

Just as we are tapping new oil reserves with more sophisticated (and riskier) deep-sea drilling, we can now access deeper natural gas deposits using a technique called hydraulic fracture (nicknamed with a masculine moniker, "fracking"). Basically, the gas is trapped in dense rock (shale) over a mile underground and can't be cost-effectively harvested by a conventional well, so with the advent of horizontal drilling, we can bore into the shale and then pump in a high-pressure fluid mix. The mix of water, sand, and proprietary chemicals (that companies may or may not admit are included in the pumping fluid, and are currently not legally required to disclose) fractures the shale so the gas can percolate up to the wells. Through the work of the filmmaker and environmental activists, we now know that fracking fluid contains benzenes, sulfides, and other carcinogens banned by the EPA Clean Air, Water, and Safe Drinking Water Acts. 65 identified ingredients are known to be health hazards. It used to even contain diesel fuel, but Halliburton cut a deal with the EPA in 2005 to stop using it in exchange for a waiver to substitute benzene.

If you recall, 2005 was a big year for the industry with the passing of the Energy Policy Act. After VP Cheney's formed his energy task force and held secret meetings, industry lobbyists successfully convinced politicians to open up unprecedented tracts of federal land to energy exploration, and insert loopholes to exempt the oil and gas industries from many environmental rules. As you would expect, Halliburton is one of the biggest gas drillers, and the industry fracks a staggering 35,000 wells each year in the US. So far the EPA has shown interest and expertise in investigating and regulating fracking chemicals, but agency leaders have copped out, and pronounced that "the states should decide" how to regulate gas drilling. In response to calls for greater scrutiny, the industry has said that fracking is completely safe without providing much supporting evidence. They in turn threaten back that added regulation of drilling will only serve to increase the cost of natural gas to consumers. In response to criticism that "Gasland" paints a slanted picture with anecdotes only from angry anti-gas families, the filmmaker challenged an industry rep to provide him with just one example of a happy, healthy American community living alongside fracture drilling, and so far they haven't gotten back to him yet.

Fracking may sound good; we're tapping vast gas pockets that were previously inaccessible. But the fracking fluid has to go somewhere, and drilling sites are often near aquifers that supply well water to local residents (and in many drilling areas, there aren't big reservoirs or rivers, so people rely on wells to survive and farm/ranch). Some of the waste fluid returns to the surface and is collected in huge pits. If the company is conscientious, they will pump up the liquid and dispose of it safely. But often the drillers will just allow the fluid to evaporate, seep back into the soil, or even expedite evaporation by pumping the fuel through vaporizers. This is all legal apparently. But the poisons don't just disappear. They either accumulate in the water supply or become aerosols that get inhaled by living things nearby.

Fracking breaks up underground shale to release gas, but that gas isn't 100% collected by the wells either. It also seeps into the water supply, and there have been several documented accidents of tap water catching on fire and causing well or household explosions. Many residents were forced to buy bottled water or rely on rainwater cisterns instead. Poisons also contaminate the wildlife, making it harder for local farmers and ranchers to make a living, or even live healthily. The incidence of some cancers, asthma, and neurological disorders (all well-documented side effects of exposure to various fracking fluid base chemicals) is uncommonly high in communities near drilling areas. And as one interviewee in Wyoming said, viewers may think it's crazy but people like him really love what they do - 3rd or 4th generation ranchers who carry on the tradition of Western living that we usually relegate to nostalgia. Now they can't even water their herds enough to develop them for market. So in addition to the massive environmental and health effects of gas drilling, we may be losing a unique and precious feature of American history and culture also. Yes our supercharged economy needs energy to run, and gas is a precious resource. But potable water is also very precious, and although laws and subsidies make its price artificially low, humans are also fighting wars across the globe (either with guns or lawsuits) over water access. Ideally we should protect both our energy and water resources, and it makes no sense to destroy one while pursuing the other, unless you stand to make a lot of money in the process of course. 

Even if companies went beyond the porous rules and made sure their drilling waste didn't endanger local life (if that is even possible with fracking), how green and minimally-invasive is natural gas exploration anyway? Reserves are often in remote areas, so there has to be hundreds of diesel truckloads of equipment transported hundreds of miles to set up a well, and in many cases miles of new road to the site have to be paved beforehand. It's like clear-cutting in the Amazon, and may leave the land like a moonscape afterward. Fracking consumes 400-600 tanker truck loads worth of water, and only a fourth of that volume can be recovered and cleansed (if the company chooses to). If each well consumes 1-7M gallons of water per frack (and wells are sometimes fracked over 10 times), the industry creates trillions of gallons of contaminated water per year (the industry term for the waste is "produced water"). The drilling and refining processes also need to be powered by diesel generators, which collectively spew out tons of emissions. Combine that with gas leaks and chemical evaporation, and the air in microclimates near heavy drilling zones (even densely populated areas like Ft. Worth, which has 15,000 wells in its vicinity) is more unsafe than LA smog.

Most states are in very bad financial shape now, and thanks to the GOP blocking of the jobs bill, will get even less federal assistance in 2010. As consequence, they have had to trim down their environmental and regulatory workforce, and may be more open to allow gas drilling to reap royalties, taxes, and create jobs. As long as they don't live in drilling areas, what do those state legislators care? A major drilling expansion is planned in the Marcellus shale in upstate New York and Pennsylvania. But projected well sites are located in the upper Delaware River Basin and NYC watershed that collectively supply the drinking water to NYC, Philadelphia, and over 15M residents in between. NYC council members are trying to stop the expansion, and so far no wells have broken ground yet.