Showing posts with label korea. Show all posts
Showing posts with label korea. Show all posts

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Cultural elitism, racial stereotypes, yellow journalism and the Asiana SFO crash

By now you've probably seen this: look what the morons at channel 2 KTVU did after the SFO crash. Doing local TV news proud! We've already discussed how the media is so hungry to break the next turn of events that their critical thinking and vetting go down the tubes (even for bigger outlets like CNN).

So that was a case of improper due diligence, but what is below is real racism (or at least ignorant, ethnocentric poor reasoning) IMO.

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/national/2013/07/malcolm-gladwells-cockpit-culture-theory-everywhere-after-asiana-crash/67058/

...could the fact that the pilots were Korean have anything to do with their behavior leading up to the crash? -The Atlantic

Non-experts just love to opine and speculate about foreign things, but they fail to realize that their efforts are not benefiting the conversation, not fixing the problem, and possibly lead to negative consequences for others. This Ohlheiser at The Atlantic is unfairly putting words in Gladwell's mouth regarding the somewhat inane question, "Did 'Korean culture' contribute to the Asiana crash?" In the past, Gladwell wrote a book chapter about Korean Air describing how they turned around from being one of the least safe carriers in the '90s (ostensibly because of Korean culture) to one of the best today. First, as if either Gladwell or Ohlheiser can properly define what Korean culture is, if that is even possible. And second, Korea follows some Confucian traditions shared by many other East Asian nations (some of which may be "deference to authority/elder figures, not speaking up about problems out of respect to save face, etc."). Does that mean JAL and Singapore and Cathay are also disasters waiting to happen? To me it all stinks of prejudice and cultural elitism - oh if those slant-eyes only acted like us, then maybe they wouldn't have crashed!

There is bad assumption on top of bad assumption here, with little to no official evidence released by authorities yet. Was the cause primarily pilot error? If so, did the rookie make the mistake because he was inexperienced (and his co-pilots weren't correcting him because of cultural norms, even at the risk of their own lives), or maybe because he deferred to the bad instructions of his superior without question? Because there are literally dozens of other speculative explanations, all of them supported by the same amount of data - zilch. It's a pointless exercise in gossip, but one that some love to undertake.

"I can understand why my Outliers chapter has been of interest, given how central cockpit communication issues are in plane crashes," Gladwell told The Atlantic Wire in an email, adding, "My sense is that we should wait for the full report on the crash before drawing any conclusions about its cause." - MG (well Ohlheiser, and CNN too, decided not to wait)

Gladwell of all people should respect the significance of outliers, even if The Atlantic doesn't. Air crashes are by nature outliers, or there wouldn't be a civilian air travel industry. You simulate the SFO crash conditions with the same flight crew (and wipe their memory each time), and they may only crash 1% of the time. Same if you test all Korean pilots, or all Asian pilots. Journalists often want to smoke out stories where none exist, so they imprint or imagine interesting patterns and narratives inappropriately. Sometime, shit just happens and race/culture have nothing to do with it. That may not be a sexy headline, but I thought they were in the facts business.

Ohlheiser makes a cop-out at the end of her story, saying that there "isn't enough evidence" (duh) to implicate deference as possibly contributing to the crash, but just raising the offensive question on such a public forum is the harmful act - not necessarily determining whether the controversial theory holds water. I am against the censorship of opinions (no matter how silly), but responsible, thoughtful free speech is preferred. Forgive me here, but all this is almost as bad as saying, "While there is no evidence and it's almost impossible to prove, could it be that Bernie Madoff's Jewishness contributed to his greedy and scamming actions?" No one would dare pose that question, much less try to argue for it, without expecting to be labeled an ignorant racist. But against Asians it's fine?

You can't just label all of Korean culture as deferential and poor-communicating. Could Samsung and Hyundai have succeeded against cutthroat competition (including competition from low power-distance companies) with those behaviors? In fact, Samsung is know for bucking that Asian stereotype and promoting some junior staff (who may or may not be foreign-born) who outperform the old Korean guys. That's more of a meritocracy than many US firms. And it's not like Asiana is some podunk outfit or reckless carrier. According to British industry research firm Skytrax (and reported by ABC), Asiana was rated the BEST airline in 2010. The top 10 list was mostly Asian and Mideast carriers ("deferential", Eastern cultures), and no low power-distance Western carrier made the top list (unless you count Quantas and New Zealand).

http://abcnews.go.com/Travel/worlds-best-airlines-fly-carriers-amazing-flights/story?id=10731548&page=2#.UeHPaW2eRNg

What the media may fail to acknowledge is that SFO is one of the worst designed and least safe airports in the US, according to Travel & Leisure. It is built on landfill in a very windy, foggy part of the SF Bay, and it's 2 main runways are very close to each other and totally parallel, with secondary runways crossing them mid-way. There were 55 "incidents" from 2006-2010. SFO was also ranked the 2nd worst airport in 2013 for flight delays, and their ATC has a reputation for being crappy (as partly evidenced by their on-time record).

With the airport’s crossing runways and so many flights impacted by fog and other weather delays, SFO administrators have long advocated a complete realignment of its runways into a safer configuration. This involves extending the airfield into the bay—a plan vehemently opposed by Bay Area environmentalists and windsurfing enthusiasts. - T&L

http://www.travelandleisure.com/articles/tls-most-dangerous-us-airports/5
http://www.news10.net/news10picks/slideshows/specials/243745/339/The-5-worst-airports-in-the-country-for-flight-delays

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I wrote to the author Ohlheiser about my issues with her story, and to be fair here is her reply and my reply.

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I appreciate your thoughts on my piece, but I am worried that you may have misread my intentions. The first line you quote from me, "could the fact that the pilots were Korean have anything to do with their behavior leading up to the crash?" was, I thought pretty clearly, a paraphrase of a question I believe to be erroneous that has been raised widely in the media over the past few days. I wrote (citing a press conference in which this subject was raised, as a result of already existing speculation among many journalists): 

"the conversation turned to a media speculation meme that's been bubbling about the deadly incident for about 24 hours: could the fact that the pilots were Korean have anything to do with their behavior leading up to the crash? " 

In my article, I linked to multiple outlets who asked this question without any hint of self-awareness, prompting me to ask Gladwell for his thoughts on the use of his essay to raise this question, in my opinion, absurdly prematurely.

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Thank you, Ms./Mrs. Ohleiser.

Sorry I don't watch TV news much because I feel it is of such low value, so I was not aware how much they have already posited the question. I agree that you were not the first nor the most blatant carrier of the message. But I have respect for The Atlantic from my past experience, and I hoped that you would not further add visibility to the silly story, even if you were subtly trying to criticize or shed light on it.

Maybe this would not be possible for you, but I would have liked to see you explicitly call out the other outlets for even raising the question without much evidence from the incident. And if they bothered to do some actual journalism before blabbering out speculations, the pre-existing body of knowledge suggests that their "theory" is unlikely to be true anyway. For me, it's not good enough to just say the media outlets are rushing to judgment (it's for-profit TV news after all, we should expect that). We have to hold them to account when their judgments exhibit such absurd reasoning, bias, and ignorance - even if arguably supported by Gladwell's past writing (applicability to the current SFO crash is questionable, as Gladwell also noted). We know that TV news can take things out of context to support the opinions that they wanted all along.

I have not yet read Outliers, but I generally respect Gladwell's work. As he intimated, I am not sure how the specific circumstances and conclusions of the Korea Air story can be used to explain other seemingly related (but we can't be sure yet) incidents like the Asiana crash - isn't it likely that Asiana mgmt. has also carefully studied the Korea Air case? There are instances of deferential, one-way communicating, high power-distance org's succeeding, as well as cases of low power-distance, free-communicating org's failing miserably. How do you make judgments and generalizations then? It depends on circumstances. Unless there are some controlled experiments and/or rigorous research, I am not sure how much we can scientifically and fairly attribute deference to successes or failures during unusual events.

"We don't know" is a fair (and optimal) response in many cases. Better than ridiculous snap judgments anyway.

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My piece was intended to add some context to what was a very, very, visible question over the past week. In other words, to explain why several outlets and cable channels ran long segments or articles rehashing the theory in the first place, and to push back with that context on why it wasn't really smart reasoning to undergo — the line of mine you call a "cop out," was, in fact, my point, that the outlets using Gladwell's theory here had no evidence to support it.  

For your further reference, here area  few examples of outlets raising this question without a critical eye (I think I linked to some or all of these in the piece) 


and a good debunking (which, sadly, I missed while writing my piece, as it's kind of buried in a larger analysis of the crash itself): http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/transport/2013/07/asiana_airlines_crash_stop_blaming_sfo_s_runways_and_korea_s_pilots_for.2.html  

Thanks again for reaching out, and I appreciate your engaged criticism here. 

To your second point: I am not equipped to do an analytical, evidence-based take on the veracity of Gladwell's theory itself, which is precisely why I refrained from doing so in my piece. However, you may find this very thoroughly argued critical take, published after my quick response to the speculation, interesting: http://askakorean.blogspot.hk/2013/07/culturalism-gladwell-and-airplane.html  

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I am embarrassed that I misinterpreted your purpose so badly (my fault for scanning hastily). However, I construed your comments about Asiana being a "much smaller" airline than Korean Air, and citing their 2 previous crashes, as comments intended to cast doubt whether Asiana was above the problems that Korean Air experienced and learned from - and therefore the deference explanation may still be valid. Maybe for balance and to avoid misunderstandings, you could have provided context that Asiana is in fact a highly rated airline with a very good safety record - as I expect many Americans have never heard of Asiana prior to this month and may make incorrect assumptions about them considering the recent media coverage and the single data point of the SFO crash.

You did describe how the deference theory was spreading like wildfire with little to no evidence, and you included Gladwell's quotes to show that he does not think such speculation is useful at this time, nor does he really support using the older Korean Air story to explain the current Asiana crash. But maybe to drive the point home, you could have cited some previous gaffes, such as the right wing media-propagated rumor that Iraq was behind 9/11 leading to a scarily high % of Americans still believing it today, in order to remind your readers of the dangers of jumping to conclusions (or even making casual prejudiced speculation) without sufficient proof.

Thanks again and best wishes with your work.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Are US generals helping or hurting war efforts?

http://www.npr.org/2012/11/01/164096479/ricks-firing-generals-to-fight-better-wars

Ricks' recent book describes how less effective US generals are compromising our military and making our current ugly wars even harder to win. Bad managers are not confined to the private sector and politics - plenty of generals are incompetent, selfish, and foolish. It's nothing new - see WWI or the Napoleonic Wars.

In WWII, it was standard procedure to dismiss generals from command for even small battlefield failures, even if they had a track record of good performance. Maybe that policy was too harsh, but there were plenty of other officers to replace them. And often the relieved officer got a new command elsewhere after serving a short penance. 16 such generals were relieved during the 5 years of WWII. Since Vietnam, only one field general has been relieved for combat ineffectiveness. Theater commanders have been "fired" instead: Westmoreland, Casey, etc. - but those moves were more symbolic, from civilian leaders aware of the public's frustration with those wars. In addition, the average duration of American wars has increased, and with worse strategic outcomes. Apart from the Gulf War I anomaly, now the US is engaged in decade-long quagmires, versus less-formidable enemies than the Axis. There are several reasons for this that Ricks postulates:

WWII was a "traditional" war with a clear, existential threat to the US and our allies, with well-defined military objectives. For the nuclear-age Cold War, combat mostly became small and unconventional (keeping the lid on civil wars, counter-insurgencies, nation building, etc.) - situations that generals did not study and were not prepared for.

The relationship between civilian leaders, military leaders, and soldiers has changed. During WWII, in general the priority was to win the war with as little loss of American life as possible. Therefore there was little tolerance for inept generals who put troops under undue risk. As the military-industrial complex grew into its own "special interest", the military strayed from this and became more general-centric. Now war was more about career development for officers, rather than winning humbly and efficiently. Egotistical generals have always cared about their own glory since the dawn of organized battle, but it descended to new lows since Vietnam. Therefore, top brass were reluctant to fire battlefield commanders as a black mark on the fired officers' careers, and also their own. Civilian leaders were also hesitant to fire even inept military leaders, as that could be construed as an admission that the war was not going well or it was the wrong war to fight. So we "stay the course" with inept leaders. Again, US lives took the back seat to political concerns.

Relations between the White House and Pentagon have changed too. Lincoln and JFK's "team of rivals" concept was very much at play during WWII. FDR and George Marshall probably didn't like each other very much, but showed enough honesty, respect, and patriotism to listen to conflicting opinions when it was best for the nation. Most war failures result from incorrect information, improper assumptions, and other possibly preventable errors of judgment. FDR and Marshall did their best to make sure those mistakes were avoided. This isn't just nostalgia for the Greatest Generation, and the Allies made plenty of goofs during WWII too. But their "HR" system was more sound - contrast it to the Iraq War and Bush's team of yes-men neocons, total liar "expert advisers" like Chalabi, and sycophant generals. Now we go to war based on hunches and ideologies. It's the opposite of the dispassionate, data-driven, risk-averse decisions we should be making.

The decline started around Vietnam, and possibly coincides with the trend of US presidents being less and less likely to have served in the military. The relationship between LBJ and Westmoreland was a joke. The two kept info from each other, tried to avoid disagreements, and only told the other what they wanted to hear. I am not sure how Obama deals with the military today, but seeing how many of his policies are quite Bush-like (and definitely not worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize), I bet he is kowtowing more often than giving tough love - which is his job, his duty, and what the citizens expect of him. Part of this is due to the "cult of the military", where we overly venerate the institution. It's schizophrenic, because on one hand we skimp on veteran's care and don't want a draft, but on the other we have to "support the troops" no matter what, with nearly limitless funding. It's verboten to criticize the military, maybe even at the highest levels of government. Sometime criticism is the highest form of patriotism. Just ask Lincoln and FDR. Look how much of Romney's candidacy is about fellating the military. He wants to grow military spending to 4% GDP AFTER we have wound down two ground wars. Even at the peak of it's power, the British Empire didn't spend that much. Ricks finds this especially shocking from a former CEO who made his fortune cutting costs and giving tough love to struggling companies. We should always support our troops, but we have to stop coddling the generals and the institution if it's not serving the interests of the people.

Also there was the gradual phasing out of the draft. When the 1%'s kids were no longer in harm's way, US soldiers quickly became more expendable. All sorts of waivers were granted for the rich during Vietnam, so really the war was fought by the poor and uneducated. That trend continues today, as the volunteer military tends to attract those without much civilian career prospects. A volunteer army also concentrates war suffering on a minority of the citizenry (the segment of society that is already marginalized), so the rest of us are less inclined to care if the war is going poorly and led by bad generals. Tying into a previous point, the causes we are fighting for after Korea are more murky and controversial. Therefore it's hard to get the whole country behind the war effort and engaged with the daily progress enough to hold under-performing commanders accountable. Most of us can't even name an actual combat general serving in Iraq and Afghanistan now, and have no idea what they're doing. National security secrecy and lack of free press access aren't helping either.

Despite the fact that our current volunteer military is mostly comprised of the lower classes, they are actually some of the most professional and high-performing troops the US has ever had (on average). That is both a blessing and a curse. Like a high-performing department with a bad manager, it masks the incompetence of the manager. Bad generals in Iraq and Afghanistan "get away with" more incompetence because their troops sacrifice and struggle so much to accomplish objectives in spite of their leaders. And since the generals know their troops are quite good, they ask too much out of them. They subject them to more risk and strain instead of thinking harder and devising better strategies. Stop-loss is an obvious example. Lazy command, dereliction of duty, lack of concern for the men under your command.

Some other interesting facts about past wars and dispelling some myths:

- MacArthur may be the only general in human history who was insubordinate to 3 national leaders. And yet he had dreams of the White House. Some believe that we should have let MacArthur "finish off" North Korea when he had the chance (or even fight China), but if he had his way, it would have been a disaster. Just for that, Truman goes down as one of the great C-in-C's of US history. Chinese forces were waiting in ambush at the border to slaughter any Americans who pushed too deep. It would have escalated the war, and Mac wanted authorization to use "about 35" nuclear weapons to destroy China's military capability, and then let the Taiwanese come in for mop-up duty. Of course I don't have to explain what a moronic idea this is, but to humor you: the USSR clearly wouldn't just sit idly by while 2 major Asian communist nations got wiped out. They would have conquered Europe, and we probably couldn't have stopped them because we committed forces to the Pacific. It would have led to WWIII. And I don't think even the Taiwanese would have been comfortable with the task of occupying mainland China. As WWII hero General Bradley said, it was the wrong war at the wrong time with the wrong enemy. Unfortunately we repeated the blunder in Vietnam.

- Patton was actually a mediocre to poor battlefield commander, and obviously a very poor leader in terms of "people skills". But what he was really good at was getting a plodding armored fighting force to cover large distances quickly in pursuit of a retreating enemy, or to relieve a besieged position. So the brilliant foresight and talent management skills of Marshall and Ike knew that Patton wouldn't be really "useful" until the end of the war. They coddled him and tolerated many of his issues until they let him loose in , to do what he was best at.

- Ike was a fairly unproven, junior commander going into WWII, but Marshall picked him to be the combined Allies leader because he was diplomatic, patient, and knew how to work well with others (a rare trait for egotistical generals). Marshall and FDR realized that this was a new chapter of warfare, and the Allies would ultimately beat the Nazis, not just the Americans (and let's be honest, the USSR did most of the heavy lifting anyway).

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A follow-up with Tom Ricks: http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201211140900

He had a good point on the sex scandal - for YEARS in Iraq, hundreds or even thousands of people were dying under incompetent generals, but none of them were fired, demoted, or even had to get chewed out by a civilian committee. But a general sends some flirting emails to a floozie socialite (after years of "drought" serving in combat zones in conservative Muslim nations) - HEADLINE NEWS!!!! NATIONAL OUTRAGE!!!! My only criticism of those generals is their HORRIBLE choice in mistresses. At least learn from Charlie Sheen and Tiger.

For the record, Ike had an affair with his female driver during WWII, and he later became president (I think that was Petraeus' ambition too). But that was the pre-Twitter, integrity in journalism era.

I'm not defending the generals' actions, but let's prioritize our criticism.

Monday, May 26, 2008

The realities of a nuclear North Korea


A failure in diplomatic and economic engagement with a reclusive yet amenable regime

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6038490.stm
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061011/ap_on_re_as/koreas_nuclear_208
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/crs/IB91141.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_party_talks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_nuclear_program
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_reunification
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/10/10/opinion/ednkor.php
http://www.iht.com/bin/challenge.php?URI=http://iht.nytimes.com/protected/art...

First off, enjoy this quote from the recent Bush press conference. Referring to the added negotiation leverage gained if the Six-Party Talks nations achieve consensus on North Korea, he said, "One has a stronger hand when there's more people playing your same cards." I hope he wages war and conducts diplomacy better than he knows poker.

In addition to the quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan, Washington has adopted a policy of alienation and latent hostility towards "rogue states" such as Iran, Syria, Cuba, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Myanmar, and North Korea. Some of those nations are important regional powers, whether we care to acknowledge the fact or not. We have more to gain though increased contact rather than marginalizing them into desperate measures (such as nuclear armament), but certain special interests and narrow ideologies prevent this from happening. Isolating and refraining from open dialogue/trade/relations with those countries are not only impacting our foreign policy interests, but making the North a poorer, more dangerous nation (I'll expand on this idea in my conclusion). I know that North Korea is a frustrating, often irrational negotiating partner who has broken off negotiations in the past, but that is no excuse for our poor effort in return. It makes no sense to refuse to acknowledge the North until they adhere to previous obligations, when we fully know that they won't heed those agreements without new dialogue with us.

RECENT HISTORY

In the 1990's, Pyongyang admitted to conducting secret uranium/plutonium enrichment programs, but the involved nations drafted an "Agreed Framework" in 1994 to keep the Korean Peninsula nuclear weapons-free and move towards normalized relations. The North would receive energy supplies, be removed from the list of terrorist nations, and be permitted to run foreign-built nuclear power plants under NPT protocols. The US would offer security guarantees and economic aid if the North refrained from weapons research and permitted full inspection of its facilities. Then Bush included the North in the "Axis of Evil" in 2001, and things went further south in 2002. The US suspended oil shipments to the North and misinterpreted a North Korean statement declaring their "right" to nuclear weapons as an admission of possessing them. Both sides accused the other of scrapping the 1994 agreements. Pyongyang claimed it had no choice but to restart its reactors after the US compromised its energy supply.

The Iraq war began, US and South Korean forces increased military exercises, the North went on high alert, and everyone was on edge. In response to North Korea's withdrawal from the NPT in 2003 and ambiguity over nuclear weapons, the Bush Administration decided to cease direct negotiations, push for international sanctions, and keep the threat of force "on the table" until the North disarms, opens its doors to IAEA inspectors, and lives up to "prior obligations to the international community." The Six-Party Talks began in 2004 to resume and expand on the 1994 agreements, with some positive results. But the North postponed negotiations indefinitely in late 2005 after the US froze North Korean assets in Macau. They offered to return to the bargaining table if the US gave the money back, but to no avail. Instead, the North fired missiles into the Sea of Japan and supposedly conducted a nuclear test. It's been a sad deterioration from building trust during the Clinton Administration to mutual treachery/provocation during the Bush Administration. So I believe that it's purely election year BS for McCain to blame Clinton for the recent developments in Korea.

NUCLEAR POLICY PROS AND CONS

Every nation with nuclear aspirations knows it will have fewer friends after obtaining the bomb, but sometimes a bomb is more useful than allies. With the exception of the US, every nuclear power has pursued such weapons in order to address grave threats to their existence, not with the premeditated desire to implement them offensively. The North is no exception, and issued a "no first-strike" clause in its nuclear strategy, preferring the weapons as deterrent only.

The USSR stole nuclear information to counter US exclusivity, and an unprecedented arms race ensued. But with our assistance, America's NATO allies went nuclear to stymie the Soviet presence menacing Western Europe. Israel probably went nuclear after the costly Yom Kippur War to prepare for the next pan-Arab invasion. Traditional enemies India and Pakistan went nuclear in the 1990's, despite our chastisement and economic punishment, and cross-border hostilities in that region have decreased. We can learn two valuable lessons from the South Asia example. First, sanctions against nations that have recently gone nuclear will not compel them to disarm. And second, nuclear weapons (or the fear of annihilation from them) can be wielded responsibly as an effective deterrent against foreign aggression. Pyongyang can't help but examine recent history to justify its controversial course of action. Therefore, it's quite hypocritical for Indian PM Singh to proclaim, "We do not support the emergence of another nuclear weapons state." Indians should know better than anyone that it doesn't matter what the world thinks, but there comes a point when a nation feels that it has to build a bomb. Some nations would like to remain ambiguous concerning their arms capabilities, to befuddle potential enemies and make them think twice about initiating hostilities (Saddam, Israel). Other nations have the know-how to rapidly construct an arsenal if the need arises, such as Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Argentina, and South Africa (also probably Taiwan, Canada, Australia, and some European nations). Most of those states are not under immediate threat, which is of course the key to convincing them that nuclear weapons would be too problematic to acquire.

So North Korea is in a bind, some of which is self-inflicted. The conceited, insular Kim government is tired of being bullied by the US and wants recognition. Sometimes force confers respect in geopolitics. This may become a very reckless publicity stunt, and will hurt the Korean people. But they hear our strong language and take the threat of American aggression very seriously. If we mellowed our tone, Kim's desire for nuclear weapons would appear all the more ridiculous and unacceptable in the world's eyes. But the Bush Administration has helped Pyongyang into a position to somewhat justify a nuclear deterrent. Can Bush explain to North Korea why pro-America nations get to hoard thousands of megaton hydrogen bombs, while they can't even test a few meager fission devices?

Maybe that's the paradox of the nuclear age. Countries seek nuclear weapons purely out of self-interest, even if the global response will be crippling. Powerful countries want nukes, but refuse to allow others the same privilege. They think they have the right or need for such weapons, even if the rest of the world thinks its lunacy. America toots the horn of nonproliferation, but refuses to show good faith and engage in serious disarmament, and this contributes to our failing nuclear policies according to Asian affairs expert Gordon Chang. To make matters worse, Bush cancelled the Test Ban Treaty and other accords, and approved funding through Congress for new weapons development. The Test Ban Treaty kept Chinese nukes frozen in 1970's technology, and now the floodgates are loosed for a potential 21st century arms race. They shouldn't complain about the "Chinese menace" if they contribute to the problem. Speaking of China, America faced a dilemma when the People's Republic went nuclear during the 1960's. The US seriously considered a first strike on their facilities, but fortunately responsible leaders nixed that plan which would have ultimately led to World War III. We let China go nuclear, and the sky didn't fall. A nuclear North Korea and/or Iran is not the end of the world, but does force us to adapt and rethink our strategies.

What does North Korea want? Maybe they just desire respect and fair treatment. I know that they probably don't plan to nuke anyone unless as last resort. Unlike the doomsday scenarios and exaggerated, paranoid claims from the government/mass media, North Korea is not much of a threat to us. Unlike Al Qaeda, North Korea has not sworn to destroy America or our allies. Gross civil and human rights abuses take place regularly, and this must be addressed. Kim is disrespectful to our government and clearly a bad leader, but not a maniac. Even the "madman" Saddam didn't have the audacity to use WMD on Coalition forces during Desert Storm, because he knew we would reduce Iraq to rubble in retaliation. Most dictators realize that it's folly to commit national hara-kiri, because who would be left to boss around? Hitler, Nero, and the Khmer Rouge were the few exceptions. Even though the North has broken agreements in the past, their no first-strike policy is an important sign. I just don't think Kim would walk the path to oblivion and foolishly employ his nukes just to spite America, but he will respond to perceived aggression on our part, including excessive sanctions. Korea's neighbors have reason for concern, and may well match or surpass Pyongyang's arsenal in a new Asian arms race. Surely the North profits from arms sales to questionable parties, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to Western defense companies. There is scant evidence to suggest that Pyongyang has ever engaged in WMD proliferation or dealt with international Islamist groups, even less than the case against Saddam. Noam Chomsky claims that Bush added North Korea to the "Axis of Evil" in 2001 simply because it was too controversial for the Axis to be exclusively comprised of Muslim nations. North Korea is a dysfunctional, impoverished, idiosyncratic hermit state with a mediocre military (significant manpower but obsolete weaponry) and primitive nukes at best. We shouldn't let our guard down, but we don't need to freak out either. Freaking out after 9/11 got us into the Afghanistan/Iraq mess, so I hope we can learn to avoid repeated mistakes.

INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS?

I disagree with some of the NYT editorial above calling for stiff sanctions and punishment. Unlike Iran, North Korea has no oil leverage and few strong allies/foreign investors apart from China. So compared to Iran, it will be easier for the international community to come to a consensus on imposing punishment. Beijing lost face when North Korea tested their device in defiance of their warnings, but they hesitate to cripple their close ally. They realize that the international response should not be to merely punish the North, but instead seek to convince (or bribe) them abandon nuclear activities for their own good. If China agrees to withhold their veto and cut aid/oil to North Korea (doubtful), it may very well bring Pyongyang to its knees. But arrogant centralized governments don't like to beg on their knees, and might prefer extremism instead. Take the case of pre-WWII Imperial Japan. That nation was obviously militaristic and aggressive, seeking to become a respected world power and regional leader. After Japan invaded and conquered French Indochina and some of the Dutch East Indies, the US (then Japan's chief oil supplier) imposed an oil embargo to cut the lifeblood to the Japanese military. Instead of shamefully bargaining for a resolution with the West, Japan decided to sneak attack Pearl Harbor instead, and the rest is history. So we shouldn't implement excessive external pressure that may provoke Pyongyang into using its military/nuclear resources in desperation.

If we learned anything from our economic embargoes in the 20th century, external pressure does not weaken enemy regimes and foster democratic reforms. In fact, it only serves to strengthen our enemies at the expense of their suffering people (whom we supposedly care about and wish to liberate). The people may come to resent their corrupt leaders more, but our economic strangulation weakens their ability to resist. As a result, they probably blame the West more than their own leaders for the hardships. Castro has outlasted 9 (soon to be 10) US presidents, and the Ayatollahs still run Iran, despite our decades of economic and diplomatic estrangement. The secretive Kim regime enjoys its privileged, demigod status and prefers to spend its meager capital on nuclear/military expenditures while the society languishes and falls further behind. Like Iran, this nation is generally immune to trade sanctions. The government seems content to cut off ties with the outside world even as their people starve, and yet the deceived populace still has great love for the two Kim leaders. The North won't back down in the face of terrible hardships. Are we ready to take responsibility for another ruined, suffering nation? By all means we should attempt to block the North's acquisition of new military/nuclear technology, but general economic sanctions will do more harm than good. One punishment the Bush Administration seeks to impose on the North is a mandatory search of all inbound and outbound cargo. This technically constitutes a naval blockade, which the North would rightfully interpret as an act of war (according to international law). Events may escalate out of control from there.

Military aggression obviously makes matters worse. As observed in Iraq, democracy can't function through violence, and our hostility only increases support for undesirable, unstable strongmen. Yet America expects the grateful recipients of our sanctions and bombs to spontaneously overthrow their own leaders and do the West's bidding instead? Especially after we stifled democratic movements (that were too leftist for comfort) in Africa/Latin America, hung the anti-Saddam resistance out to dry after 1991, and utterly failed in Vietnam/Bay of Pigs, maybe reformers don't quite trust us to reliably assist them in their struggles for positive change.

IMPROVING OUR DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS

The NYT's columnist Nicholas Kristof says we need to start talking to "monsters" from hostile regimes, instead of taking the Republicans' juvenile cold shoulder approach. Sometimes talking prevents fighting, and we should have tried it long ago with Cuba, Iran, the Iraqi insurgents, Islamist groups, and even Osama. Bush rules out direct talks with the North because he believes Six-Party negotiations give us more diplomatic advantage. While that may be true, completely refusing to engage them directly is setting us back, especially when the North has been requesting bilateral talks! UN Secretary General Anan has said as much. They claim to pursue nuclear arms as a deterrent against US aggression. It might all be a smokescreen, but it appears that their gripe is with us. So why don't we talk with them, put their fears to rest, and convince them to disarm in a more effective, equitable manner? What do we have to lose by talking? But Bush and the GOP have to remain on message and stay the course. Staying the wrong course is hurting us in Iraq, and staying the wrong course is costing us with North Korea. Sadly, this nuclear standoff will probably help the fear-mongering, security-driven Republicans in the November election.

I am not Korean, but please permit me to make a few inferences. Certainly Southerners are dismayed with the nuclear test. They feel betrayed that these years of increased openness, cooperation, and generosity were squandered. Seoul's "Sunshine" policy of engagement has been making progress for the last decade, and unfortunately the North's recent nuclear brinkmanship has infuriated many South Koreans and increased criticism of the engagement strategy. The Korean people want peaceful coexistence, reconciliation, and eventual reunification. They want it so badly that many of them are willing to bury decades of hostility and mistrust to work for a better future. The South gives millions in socioeconomic assistance each year, and the North graciously accepts. Young people in the South want American troops off the Korean Peninsula for good. Koreans are tired of being Cold War pawns for China and America. Unlike Israel and Hamas, the South and North have become more reliable, respectful negotiating partners since the Clinton Era. Surely it's impossible to bury all the hate, war scars, and communists-capitalists ideological animosity. We still have a long way to go, but at least the loudspeakers on the DMZ have silenced, leaders have met and shook hands, Korea has a joint Olympic team, and some lucky families have reunited.

Civil wars are some of the most tragic conflicts, and we Americans should know. We've suffered through a civil war and instigated a few in other countries too. The US interference exacerbated tensions in Vietnam. Rather than allowing the Vietnamese to negotiate their differences and become a unified, sovereign nation (as opposed to a Western or Soviet puppet), the USSR and US decided to impose its wishes and force a path to war instead. America did not start the Korean War, but our government has impeded progress to peace because of narrow self-interest and persistent Cold War ideology. However, a better future is possible through intelligent discussion, concession, reconciliation, and trust (look at Germany and South Africa). The Koreans are closer to peaceful coexistence than many other global hot spots, and unfortunately this is an issue that America takes umbrage. As demonstrated in the recent summit between South Korean and American leaders this fall, the two nations do not see eye-to-eye regarding relations with the North. The Bush Administration continues to adopt the antiquated, fruitless policy of estrangement that has yet to succeed in Cuba, Iran, and elsewhere. Seoul adopts a more elevated, civilized strategy. Of course the North has sometime failed to live up to expectations as a reasonable negotiating partner, but they are not solely to blame for this shameful diplomatic failure.

CONCLUSION: GIVE PEACE (AND TRADE) A CHANCE

So what is the solution? Like Iraq, the situation is complex, precarious, and too difficult for the US to resolve with force. Globalization is overwhelming a net force for good, and political freedom must be coupled to economic prosperity. As great economists have observed, no democracy ever had a famine, and free trade is correlated with standard of living and honest government. So obviously sanctions, embargoes, and tariffs won't help improve life and encourage reforms in North Korea. And a poor, desperate, unstable North Korea is not good for anyone. So as we all know, democracy + prosperity = no fighting. Unfortunately, some governments in Europe and the Middle East haven't figured this out yet, and continue to marginalize and abandon angry, desperate Muslims to the manipulations of religious extremists. We have to open up to North Korea, Iran, and others if we desire peaceful social reform there, but conservatives, special interests, and ideologues profit from the regrettable status quo and routinely block détente. North Korean agricultural exports suffer from protectionist policies and subsidies of richer Asian neighbors. Some people can't overcome antiquated Cold War thinking and resist change. Kim thrives on his nation's isolation to maintain power, and our diplomatic hostility/trade sanctions are working in his favor.

Maybe we fear that more money bound for North Korea will only funnel to the corrupt regime and military. But Saddam didn't snatch every last cent of the wayward Oil For Food Program, didn't use his profits to build WMD, and much of the proceeds did help the struggling Iraqi people. Pyongyang can't hoard all the wealth, and ordinary citizens will benefit from increased commerce, which leads to demand for education, government reform, and civil liberties. Plus increased cultural exchange with the West and North Korea's Asian neighbors will reduce the mutual mistrust, prejudice, and tension. When people wield more information, wealth, and influence, it's harder for leaders to unilaterally execute deleterious policies. And as I previously mentioned, economic and diplomatic seclusion only serves to weaken the populace and strengthen tyrants. Increased trade with China and the South have helped tremendously, so the North needs more, not less, socioeconomic and diplomatic contact with the rest of the world to become a responsible, trustworthy member of the world community. It's better for the unfortunate Korean people and better for global security, but unfortunately conflicts with the interests of narrow-minded, self-serving leaders like Kim and Bush. Surely the process won't be quick or easy (trust and relations among enemies takes time), money won't fix everything, and we must remain diligent. Maybe "appeasing" and "bribing" North Korea will set a poor example for other nuclear hopefuls, so we must hold the North to account as well. If they want nukes, they can't have other benefits. The choice is theirs, but we need to offer them something more substantial than condemnations and threats. Nixon and Mao took major political risks to commence relations, and it paid off for both nations decades later. We can sew the seeds of cooperation now and work/hope for a better future, or we can resign ourselves to the continuing failure of Bush-like policies.

North Korea has gone nuclear whether we like it or not, and we can't turn back the clock. If we can't get the genie back into the bottle, at least we can reduce its preeminence. A cooperative nuclear partner is still safer than an estranged enemy with a knife. So the world has a simple choice: do we prefer to punish nuclear North Korea and render that nation more isolated, impoverished, angry, and desperate? Or do we desire to work for peaceful coexistence, normalized relations, disarmament/nonproliferation, social reforms, and prosperity instead?

"The best way to destroy an enemy is to make him a friend."
- Abraham Lincoln, Republican and war president.