Thursday, November 27, 2014

Happy Thanksgiving and happy Buy Nothing Day

This weekend, we can expect the usual parking lot & store fights, stampedes, cold/fatigue related injuries, debt spending, and such. All this to keep our consumer economy humming and shore up retailers' financials. Or we can boycott the insane, unnecessary, perverted-capitalism process.

If you are troubled by the recent trend that some retailers are opening on Thanksgiving (and staying open like 40 straight hours into Black Friday), you can also boycott them all year-round, divest from their stocks, and let their management know that you disapprove of their operating decisions and worker treatment. These employees deserve (hopefully paid) time off just like the white collar workers and others who are their customers - esp. because they will have to suffer through the longer, uglier hours in Dec anyway.



It's not just retailers, but also the public services, entertainment, food, and convenience industries. If workers must/choose to work (i.e. we need some gas stations and hospitals open), they should get OT/bonus pay. SD is trying to enact a law that would require 2X pay during TG and Xmas - not sure how it will pan out and there is no federal bill of course. Retailers may claim that they are just responding to customer demand; maybe so but that is also what a drug dealer would say. Sure, no one is expecting us to spend 24-7 with our families without going crazy, but there are other things to do besides consuming with the herd: enjoy the outdoors, catch up on chores/studies/sleep, volunteer at a kitchen, etc.



It's all especially sad/ironic because TG/Xmas are holidays where we are supposed to be good to each other and reflect on our blessings (usually blessings that can't be bought in a mall). Do we still have or remember what people gave us 3 years ago? We are the best shoppers for ourselves anyway. Holiday gifts are not that important, so why do we continue to stress and waste effort over gift buying year after year? Unless it's a Lexus with a big red bow on it (who actually does that?), or you need to impress someone with a gift, what's the point? And even still, if you need to give gifts to make someone like/accept/remember you, then maybe that relationship isn't meant to be. There are plenty of other ways to express your feelings, and the most precious gifts can't be bought anyway (sharing special moments together). Many Americans' homes are overflowing with stuff already; why not celebrate Buy Nothing Day instead?



Not sure if it's just a few stores or company-wide, but struggling chain Kmart, as well as Wal-mart, are mandating that its staff work on TG (no time off requests will be honored). I guess those mgmt teams think their workers should be thankful to even have crappy minimum-wage retail jobs.



Here is a list of retailers that will be open and closed on Turkey Day:


http://www.ijreview.com/2014/10/193996-big-retailers-open-thanksgiving-good-bad-thing/

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Cleveland child shooting by police

http://gawker.com/video-cops-shot-12-year-old-two-seconds-after-arriving-1663814827

Re: the Cleveland shooting - the video doesn't tell the whole story (at least there is a video though) and I am not familiar with all the facts, but...

The initial 911 caller told police that he/she thought the firearm was "probably fake", but that info never got to the officers on scene. The shooter was a rookie cop on the job less than a year (of all the officers in the area, why dispatch him to a potential firefight situation?). So lapses in police procedure seem to be contributing. If the officer killed the kid within 2 sec of the vehicle coming to a stop, when exactly did they ask the kid to put his hands up and observe that he didn't comply? Maybe they asked him from their loudspeaker before 0:21? Either way, to me it makes no sense for the other officer to drive the car into the park within 10 feet of the potentially dangerous suspect. Again, that is an act of escalation rather than diffusion that frankly is putting his partner on the driver's side at undue risk. What is the benefit of doing that? I don't mean to be a Monday morning QB, and I am ignorant on police rules-of-engagement, but it doesn't seem logical/effective. So is poor training/procedure also to blame (in addition to poor judgment)?

Why not use their loudspeaker at distance (handgun shooters generally have low accuracy beyond 25 yards) to ask any bystanders in the area to withdraw? Then from behind cover, they can have time to converse with the suspect, evaluate the risk, and discuss with HQ if needed. Why the need for such immediate violent response; the suspect was seated and not posing a threat to anyone at the time (i.e. there was no Hollywood style hostage standoff)? Shouldn't deadly force be the last resort? All of this seems to be circumstantial evidence supporting the theory that black life is not valued by some Americans (esp. in law enforcement). They wouldn't act this way if the suspect was a relative or friend, right? 

For perspective, the Richmond PD has not killed anyone in 7 years, despite the fairly dangerous climate in their city (but that PD is known for good community outreach). And they average  less than 1 officer shooting incident per year. So obviously there is a choice and violence is avoidable, unlike what Wilson claimed.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Ferguson grand jury decision and police use of force with blacks

This was a pretty good panel discussion about the Ferguson decision. To be clear, based on how our laws are written, what evidence was available, and how our justice system "works", Zimmerman and Mesherle were not guilty, and there was not enough here to indict Wilson. Whether that is right or acceptable is another story.

No one really expected an indictment of Wilson, however there was some concern about how the process unfolded: the prosecutor seemed to focus on the officer's perspective, the prosecutor's dad was a cop killed by a black suspect (and didn't recuse himself), Brown's family was not called to testify (but Wilson was - highly unusual), the convenience store crime footage was released, and AG Holder was indirectly involved. There is also the over-arching issue of the proximity between law enforcement and the DA's office, and whether impartial oversight of alleged police misconduct is possible. Was this g. jury just a "show trial" as justice theater, to go through the motions when no one really wanted to investigate Wilson. And maybe Wilson in fact broke no laws.

We've spoken about these issues before, but obviously if police were not armed (like in the UK, Norway, and many other places), that precludes the risk of violent altercations. We know that's not going to happen, so maybe police resources could be allocated to community outreach and rules-of-engagement/de-escalation policy analysis and training rather than ridiculous military exercises that they will never (or should never) use domestically. And instead of buying tanks and sniper rifles, maybe law enforcement could invest in officer and vehicle cameras - which have been shown to deter violence and misconduct from both officers and public. Convictions were possible in the Rodney King case because of footage, otherwise we all probably believe that the verdict would have been different.

There are "ambiguous" cases where an officer can rightfully shoot or not shoot - it's up to their discretion. The data show that when the suspect is black or brown, shooting is a lot more likely outcome. Assuming that minority suspects are no more dangerous than white suspects, this may be a manifestation of traditional racism, lack of sensitivity training, and/or unconscious fear (particularly of large black urban men). Ferguson's police force is under 10% black, yet the community is 2/3 black. Why was the actual white cop-killer in PA apprehended with little harm to him (and maybe no shots fired), but kids, mentally challenged, and unarmed/poorly armed minorities are beaten to a pulp or shot 10 times?

Would white America think it was OK if the tables were turned? Imagine if blacks were 60% of the population, had all the wealth/power (and Obama would still be president because he's half white), and most of the guns. Would they be OK with young white man after young white man (unarmed) killed by black cops or black neighborhood watchmen, with no convictions or even indictments? And all of this met the letter of the law?

----

Maybe there has been some sensationalism and race baiting by the media and others over Ferguson, but this crap isn't much better:


I guess Wilson is on his PR tour, and lucky for him he's the only one left alive to tell the world what happened that day. He took a punch from Brown, and then "feared for his life". He is 6'4" 210 lbs, but he said he was like a boy vs. "Hulk Hogan" - that's how big that "man" was (Brown was 6'4" 292 lbs). Either Wilson's stupid or melodramatic, but it's pretty hard to die from one or two punches. He was in a motor vehicle. If he feared for his life, why not just hit the gas and escape (assuming the car was running)? Only when he went for his gun did it become a "life and death" struggle. During his grand jury testimony (when he was not subject to cross-examination), he said Brown was a "demon". Is that to evoke sympathy and/or an admission of his hysteria?

Wilson's recounting of the incident could be accurate, but it's quite peculiar. I don't know their stories, but I believe that Brown did not have a history of violence, erratic behavior, or aggression. I am not sure about Wilson's record on duty. But the way Wilson described Brown, the kid seemed to be crazy. I'm not saying it's impossible, but why would a teen, when ordered by a cop authority figure to get off the road and then approach the patrol car, suddenly attack the armed officer without provocation? It's like Trayvon - did he suddenly just decide to kill an adult stranger on a whim? Then instead of finishing Wilson off in close quarters, somehow the hulk-demon Brown ends up 35-40 feet away from the police car, turns around, and charges back at Wilson - ostensibly with intent to kill (even though the kid already passed up an easier opportunity to kill Wilson)? At that point, Wilson said that the thought in his mind was, "Legally can I shoot this guy? I have to." If he was attacked by a "demon" and fearing for his life before, it's not likely that Wilson could be so conscientious and analytical in that moment. This makes me really suspicious of his version of events.

Wilson repeated that he has a clear conscience because he followed his training to the letter and did nothing wrong. To me, that's like Bush saying that he can't think of a mistake he made as president. Honest people can always admit they could have done something better - it doesn't require deep introspection and intellect. And if you are truly in the right, that doesn't mean that you are not allowed to be sub-perfect. Any time someone kills someone else, something obviously went wrong. But for Wilson to be so sure and culpability-free, that suggests he is on the defensive and hiding something. Maybe he is (rightfully) worried that if he is open and contrite, his words will be twisted and turned against him. He is not out of the legal woods yet. However, I don't think it's very persuasive to neutrals or skeptics when you show very little to no empathy or remorse, and just keep maintaining that you did everything right and you are actually the victim.

Wilson is the professional peace officer with the firearm and the training. He has the power of life and death, not Brown. Maybe he wielded that power in accordance with the laws of the land, but don't tell us that all this was 100% unavoidable and 100% of the blame is on Brown. Is conflict ever so black and white?

"Is there anything you could have done differently that would have [avoided the killing]?"
"No."
"Nothing?"
"No."

----

When you speak of intellect and police, please keep this in mind:


Bottom line:  They're smart enough to know their own limits, which makes them feel inferior.  Give him a gun and that inferiority goes away.  The police are poorly trained and intellectually ill-equipped to do a job like policing.  Police (in a civilized society) need to read a situation and determine the way to de-escalate it to protect everyone, not just themselves.  Instead, they exacerbate and intimidate.
If Brown was a 'demon', a police officer should know how to deal with them.  You cannot tell me that Brown wouldn't understand that if he punched a cop in the face, he'd be killed.    Every black child is told that he is perceived as a threat in society just because the color of his/her skin.  It is the 'talk' black parents have to have with their kids in order to hope they might not land in jail or get killed. 
Once again, it's bullshit cop story and because the american society is so racist, they believe it.
How long ago did we watch Rodney King get beaten?  Same as it ever was.  

----

Yeah, "the talk" is a good point; most black American men know not to do anything remotely aggressive towards the cops. Yet Wilson admitted to firing his gun 12 times at the unarmed Brown. As you said, I am pretty sure Wilson did/said something offensive to provoke Brown, who responded like a testosterone-fueled teen might, and then Wilson probably escalated because he felt that his petty ego/authority was challenge and he wanted to put this punk in his place. Like Jack Reacher said, people join the armed forces either because they're legacy, unable to get a better job, or want to legally kill people. I think some people become cops because they have inferiority complexes and want to wave the gun/badge around and intimidate (like Denzel's depiction in Training Day).

Maybe I'm way off base about Wilson, but I know this applies to some cops over the years based on the long record of misconduct and corruption (and those are only the cases that saw the light of day). Teachers and gov't workers get blasted by the right all the time, but they always apologize for the cops. They are all supposed to be public servants, but yes, there are structural and psychological reasons why they may put their own interests over the public's at times. But when cops do that, people can get hurt and justice suffers.

The way Wilson, Zimmerman, and some in right-wing media/politics describe, young black men are a ticking time bomb of primal rage that can't be reasoned with. That is racism to me, with tragic effects. Same thing with some Muslims - they are accused of embracing a culture of martyrdom and death. "We love life and freedom, they hate it." They're barely human, so they need to be caged and killed like dogs. So sure, when a psychotic 300 lb black guy wants to tear you limb-from-limb, of course you regretfully have to protect yourself with deadly force. Poor Wilson. I acknowledge that some blacks and Muslims fit these descriptions, but the vast majority don't. And plenty of whites exhibit this behavior and worse (the majority of mass murderers in US history were white men, often educated and not that poor). So we're profiling all wrong. But maybe the error stems from, and is reinforcement of, the centuries-old stereotypes about white man's burden and black savages.

One thing I also wanted to comment on was the criticism over the rioting and looting in black neighborhoods in the wake of Ferguson, Rodney King, Watts, Katrina, etc. This is somehow validation for conservatives that blacks are the problem. I am not condoning the behavior, but when people are given no better outlets for redress, and day-after-day subject to mistreatment and negativity all around, they are going to react poorly during times of strife. It is not inherent to blacks - it is what happens when you marginalize people and leave them with no hope/future. The discrimination, harassment, and violence (economic violence too) that some black people face (often from non-blacks) are significant disadvantages that others often dismiss because they haven't experienced it themselves. I also think Obama was too dismissive and unsympathetic of the protesters' perspective in Ferguson (esp. compared to Trayvon), but I assume he is being extra cautious so as to not get blamed/associated with the racial anger/violence.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

A scathing indictment of US lotteries

Like most enterprises involving a lot of $, the lottery has been pretty crooked in the US from the start. And it doesn't really make sense for the state to prohibit sports betting and other gaming, while it holds a monopoly on a $68B business that contributes only 1% to education (with untold billions in social costs).

Lastly, several states (CA, IL, etc.) have or are considering (NJ, others) selling stakes in their lotteries to private investors, in order to shore up their shaky budgets. Like many public asset sales, this usually works out to the detriment of the public. Investors want ROI, and will find new, unhealthy ways to increase the number of players/losers (an idea floating around is online sales).

Campus sexual assault - an indictment of the college system and US society?

The Cosby stuff was bad enough, but this just made me want to puke:

http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/a-rape-on-campus-20141119?page=5

College sexual assault has been in the news fairly often in the last few years, and unfortunately the stories keep getting worse. The issue may affect a shocking 1/10 to 1/4 of all college women in the US. It got so bad that Obama had to address the nation about it this year, and 76 problem schools are under investigation (and let's remember that rapes still happen on the exempt campuses too).

Unfortunately rape has been with us since the dawn of humanity, and I don't know if our current justice system has processes and harsh enough penalties on the books to properly deter it. But what also really bothers me is the attitude of the "enablers" or bystanders that let this criminality persist (or even suppress/cover it up). As the RS article described, some students seemed more concerned about the "reputation" of frats and UVA over the welfare of the victims (and justice/human decency). "Keep your mouth shut, or you will find yourself an outcast and give our school a bad name." Unfortunately, we've heard about the same crap in the military and Catholic church (and the Paterno-Sandusky tragedy).

There is a Senate bill aimed to hold college admins more accountable and increase punishments. There is also backlash from big, brave, anonymous voices on social media about this. They piss and moan, blame the victim, and such. Maybe there are some imbalanced women who do cry wolf and just want attention, but if there is even 1% legit victims out there from all the accusations, I think rape is one of those subjects where over-reactions is totally warranted. There are some mitigating circumstances where a defendant can justify a theft, lie, or even murder. But rape is 100% unjustifiable, end of story. I know our discussion group tries to be open to diverse opinions and ambiguity, but I really don't see how that is possible here. A person is not going to die without sex. No bad will come to young lovers if she is a bit tipsy tonight and he tries to make his move another time. The only costs are their "reputation" among peers and how they may measure up to juvenile notions of manliness (warped by media and unchecked by other adults who should know better).
The US rightfully slams fundamentalist Muslim societies for how they abuse women, and we were all disgusted by the stories coming out of India. But are we any better? I would say that the US is fairly strong on child protections, but what about women - who are 50% of our country? I know the vast majority of women are treated decently by men and thankfully never have to go through this hell. But just 1 case is too many.

What is even more disturbing is that these incidents happen at college, and often at good schools. College is where our best and brightest learn to be productive adults, where America (and the world's) future is being cultivated. I don't mean to be a prude, tisk tisking our young people for being so much worse than we were. I regret how I misbehaved, goofed off, and didn't fully capitalize on my precious time in school. Maybe this horrible stuff was going on but kept under raps when we were students, or maybe it is actually worse now. Technology makes casual sex a lot easier (or at least more visible) for young people, and egotism, hedonism, and entitlement seem to be bigger issues with Millennials vs. Gen X'ers (maybe I'm biased).

College is becoming more and more of a haves vs. have-nots game, and fierce competition (or family/wealth connections) make it more about status than learning/meritocracy, so these factors could be exacerbating the problem. "You are a UVA man and a Kappa Sig man; the world is your oyster and no one can hold you back." Just like the celebs that some kids idolize. And these folks will graduate, go to work, and perpetuate the attitude to their kids. Maybe some will actually mature and teach others from their experience (if I could, there is hope for anyone).

Sorry that I keep repeating TR's quote, but it keeps being relevant! At college, we educate kids in book knowledge, but not about life and morals. Well to be honest, I wouldn't want most university employees to teach my kids about those subjects (but they could hire qualified "life coaches" instead). Also, coddling parents may cry foul if the school dares to insinuate that their perfect angels don't already know how to behave. Most airline passengers are not a danger, but everyone still has to go through the metal detector. So even if many college kids are pretty mature and know how to treat others, unfortunately there are still bad apples in the bunch, so everyone has to go through training - sorry. What we learn in college is mostly useful for grad school, but is really not that valuable for the rest of our lives. Therefore, why waste our kids' precious time on that, and instead teach them about life? It's such a wasted opportunity if all they get are equations, exams, football, and spring break. I am not well versed in the classics and ancient Greece, but isn't the origin of the university system rooted in philosophy, ethics, and such? The humanities are dying at US colleges, but maybe we should bring some of that back in order to avoid generation after generation of "menaces to society." Maybe then, kids would learn about and practice empathy, respect, and honor, instead of becoming the next Wolf of Wall Street. Maybe then we'll come to value or fellow humans over peer pressure, ego, and tribalism.

I think most of us (especially men) would agree that we were kind of idiotic assholes at age 18-20. Maybe that is just the natural growing up process, and we have a lot of bad social influences. Is 18 too young for American kids to go off on their own to school? Maybe we should have post-secondary, gender-segregated, college prep for 2 years like the Europeans do? Because it's a dangerous time when you get a lot of adult rights and freedoms, but you are still operating on juvenile judgment and experience. This is nothing new, but clearly we haven't figured it out yet if thousands of women's lives continue to get ruined, during what should be a great time in their lives. Zero tolerance for Greek orgs (who really provide no constructive value to colleges or greater society) - one rape conviction or other serious crime, and they are banned from the school for a decade. Three convictions nationwide and the frat is shut down for good.

I know I sound like a square, and I really wish it didn't have to come to this, but if Americans behave like children and savages, then unfortunately we should be treated as such until we show improvement.

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Uber behaving badly

I know Uber is by nature an aggressive, controversial company, but maybe you've been following - their messaging and PR practices have been a bit suspect too. They even hired Obama campaign mgr. David Plouffe to improve their voice. But like we've discussed before, if you're so in the right, why do you need to go to such lengths to convince people? Or is it just a case of arrogant, quasi-autistic tech geniuses being such terrible communicators?

As a link in the above article describes, the big investors don't hold Uber leadership to account because of all the billions riding on them. People don't want to upset the money-printing machine, so they kowtow and condone their antics. And the sad part is, most of their offensive, sexist practices have nothing to do with rideshare social technologies. Is it just another manifestation of the self-absorbed "bro culture" that we've already seen from the Street? Only this time the nerds get their chance. Like with most major tech companies, I am pretty sure Uber is nearly devoid of female and minority leaders. I am not saying that a company has to be an affirmative action Utopia, but different viewpoints and backgrounds at the table help keep bad behaviors and terrible ideas in check.

In this particular case, Uber's SVP of Business Emil Michael suggested during a private dinner (where press was in attendance but he thought he was off the record) that the company should conduct "opposition research" and defame critical journalists. In particular, he was alluding to using some family dirt on PandoDaily's editor Sarah Lacy (who has written about women's issues and Uber in the past). From a business standpoint, it's pretty stupid for them to be so dismissive re: the concern that some women customers have about the safety of their service (a usually male stranger with only a cursory background check & regulation drives a solo woman customer to her home late at night). And to top that off with sexist comments and Vendetta is beyond me.

These braniacs may have huge IQs, but what about their EQ? This is obviously not how dignified adults should behave. When word got out, of course Michael apologized and the company distanced itself from his statements. And to be fair, this is nothing new; "traditional industries" have been doing this for centuries (and still do, a la Chevron in Richmond), but you'd think these Masters of the Universe would be a bit more enlightened now? Or are they just the 21st Century Rockefeller and Carnegie bullies? Well, most of the top industrialists in US history have one thing in common - they are monopolists who get rich by screwing everyone else in the value chain (incl. customers).

Over dinner, [Michael] outlined the notion of spending “a million dollars” to hire four top opposition researchers and four journalists. That team could, he said, help Uber fight back against the press — they’d look into “your personal lives, your families,” and give the media a taste of its own medicine.

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Is this what it takes to make "startup millions?"

A friend of mine recently left a mobile-social startup called Tango. This person didn't tell me much, but said a few things like the CEO is a dictator and was recently making the engineers work 2 out of 4 Saturdays each month (arbitrary and no exceptions, even if they were on top of their projects). I know one bad case is not an indictment of the industry, but it might be too representative for comfort.

And Tango is supposedly a promising firm with 200MM user registrations and a huge recent round of funding ($280MM from Alibaba and Warner affiliates), which suggest a valuation likely above $1B. As usual, I'm pretty sure Tango's actual value to society is not that high. And let's remember that a major exit is pretty rare; WhatsApp/Google/FB are outliers. I think over 90% of tech startups become "zombies" - meaning they are dead firms to investors, and their shares will never be exchanged for real money. To be fair, this is about the failure rate for SMBs in other industries. But the big difference is that VCs and F500 firms are not plunking down millions on Joe's Garage or Betty's Bakery.
Here are some highlights from the Glassdoor employee reviews. I know review sites are biased towards really happy/upset folks, but the story is an interesting reflection on the crap of startup life that may not be captured in "Silicon Valley". There are 51 reviews posted for a 5-year-old company with a current headcount of 160.

  • Lots of turnover, and the people who stay are only doing so for visas (if they can trust Tango's cut rate lawyers to file properly).

  • CEO and CTO own half the company shares. They had offers to sell, but are holding out because they believe the company's potential is 10X if they can show more growth (or is their best growth behind them?).

  • Engineers are unclear on what their options are worth and what %ownership they constitute. Pay is below market with the promise of equity cashout some day.

  • Mgmt. changes its mind a lot on product strategy and vision (creating a lot of wasted work and firedrills), and the CEO just over-rules everyone and switches course on a whim anyway.

  • The company supposedly has "great benefits" like unlimited PTO and free dinner, but dinner is served at 7 and people are scared to ask for time off because of the workaholic culture.

  • Probably under pressure from investors or his own impatient ambition, the CEO recently mandated 9.5 hour days and weekend work. He just wants to see butts in seats, and cares more about "doing time" than productivity.

  • Enough people complained about this policy so that the head of HR spent money to create an employer profile on Glassdoor to respond to the reviews.

  • This HR person claimed that the work hours policy was rescinded (and likely illegal for exempt staff). "There are many ways to make sure we hit our release dates and this was not the right one."

  • "We are sorry you would not recommend Tango to a friend. Although we have some room for improvement, I do believe we are starting to make changes."

  • One reviewer said that Tango went through 6 heads of HR in 2 years. Tango responded that it was actually 4. Why even bother to issue that correction? To me it just makes them look worse. You can imagine why the HR folks leave - it's a crappy culture with unhappy people that they are expected to magically fix, even though the C-levels probably don't recognize the problem and don't respect/empower them to change things. 

  • There are some glowing 5-star reviews. But they are written with perfect English and too many business buzzwords. In other words, they look phony. Other Tango reviewers have said the same - they think the positive reviews were planted by the company to make them look like a more attractive employer. I know this happens with Yelp and other sites, but that just crosses a line to me. Plenty of companies have lousy work conditions, but they don't lie to the outside world about it. It's almost a badge of honor for employees that Apple or Goldman are tough places to work (only the strong survive). They bask in it and don't try to mislead. In fact it's a disservice - they should hire people who like that environment. There's no point to try to bait and switch; the new hire will just get disappointed and want to leave. And we know staff turnover is a huge cost to firms, especially fast-moving and lean startups.

  • But this seems to reflect the desperation of Tango HR. They have very demanding/unreasonable work expectations and demoralizing leadership, yet they don't comp well and need to find talent to replace all those who left. Lovely. All that so the founders and investors can get a phat return, while the entry-level engineers are no closer to early retirement. At best they might be able to afford a Bay Area mortgage with their post-tax shares (all that is assuming a healthy exit of course). 
I wish investors would show more ethical rigor and refuse to invest in companies like Tango that engage in terrible workplace and HR behaviors (Zynga also comes to mind). Some pension funds have divested from companies that heavily contribute to global warming/warfare, or have discriminatory practices/leaders. I wish VCs would do the same, but the problem is they are too damn greedy. Plus, if they don't invest, their rivals will. It's a "frothy" environment now where there is so much money that firms want to invest in the next WhatsApp, but not enough worthy startups (despite their abundance). So investors have to relax their standards and fight to get face time with the top prospects. Yep, it's another bubble.

Another problem is that overwork is the "new normal" in the Valley and some other high pressure industries. Heck, investors may want to target firms where the founders are able to push their people more than the competition. Yes, I realize that there is no free lunch and a startup has to bootstrap and hustle to succeed. But clearly some leaders go overboard and run their firms too hot. When all is said and done, it's people that make the startup go. You can glorify the code and the disruption strategy and the innovation all you want (you can even lionize the founders), but all that probably won't overcome an abused/demoralized/burnt out workforce.

--------

I understand the republicans plan on overturning the 14th amendment, right after they impeach obama.

Seems to me this is the norm.  I work for a state institution and it has the same atmosphere.  Exempt employees are told to lie on their timecards because they are not approved pay for overtime. The department is constantly run on fear and panic.  There's only so long that you can keep up the pace before you break down. Then, they toss you to the curb.  

This unemployment rate isn't real.  It's much higher than they say and everyone deep down knows it.  As one director said to his department during a meeting, 'There's plenty of good talent on the street'.  The fear is instilled in you by your threat of losing your job.  Hell, if you're here on a visa, it's potentially a much bigger loss.

Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, they are personally responsible for this social remodeling in which we are to identify ourselves with our 'company'.  We are to live to make the company better.  We base all of our self worth on how the company does and will do anything asked of us b/c the CEO is god.  We depend on them to get to work they feed us, we re-create with our coworkers, in some cases, they have apartments on sight.  You are isolated from everyone in your real life and only focus on work.  Wonder why there's no talk of religious cults anymore?  Because the model has been implemented by the corporations!

I used to work for a company that mandated you attend a 3 day, alcohol soaked, retreat. At that retreat, I know of 3 extramarital affairs.  One man left his wife (that I know of).  As far as I can tell, this was encouraged-one more way in which the company isolates its workers.  

We are abused, demoralized and this model will not change until we all stand up together, as one force.  How many times did you stand by and watch a coworker get fired and not do anything to defend him/her?  Who will stand up when the black hand of HR comes for you?
--------

Sorry to hear that your org is dealing with unpaid OT too. Yeah I think something needs to be done about the working hours expectations for exempt employees. I guess it's "OK" if companies want workers to put in 60 hours/week and be on-call after hours, but they need to explicitly state that in the terms of employment up front (at my current job, there was a question on the application like "Are you able to work extra hours?" but that was pretty vague/unfair - and I don't know what would have happened if I replied "no"). Then the candidate can decide whether the comp and other factors are worth it for the hours. Other people just like working and would log those hours regardless, but there shouldn't be bait-and-switch or surprises.

Maybe the 40 hour expectation for exempt workers is 20th Century, though I know some managers and HR orgs do want workers to limit their hours and at least try to honor the 40 benchmark. Some might say "don't focus on the hours and think about getting your tasks done." There is some truth to that, but time is the universal currency and it should be respected. On the flipside, if very efficient people can finish their workloads in 30 hours/week, then that should be respected too (but of course companies will just give that worker extra projects to fill the space). Maybe that worker needs to be promoted or transferred to another role where the responsibilities will require them to spend ~40/week, but I don't think most companies have the time or inclination to manage worker time so conscientiously. Everyone is too focused on goals and results, and promotions are unfortunately driven by politics and "commitment" rather than efficiency/balance. Though some recognize that workaholics are not the best candidates for promotion.

You bring up an interesting point how the corporate life has replaced/supplanted a lot of "traditional American life." Religious participation is on the decline in many parts of the US, possibly replaced by company/CEO worship (as well as brand worship, media worship, etc.). Companies are pretty open about the fact that their goal is to "indoctrinate" new workers in the "culture" - using typical religious techniques like an origin story, a noble mission, exceptionalism, tribalism, etc. I don't know how US recreation and family time today compares to last gen, but clearly Americans are having fewer kids, and having them later. Part of that is macro, but part of it is probably work-related (and by extension, university-related since you need more years of schooling to get a good job now). More of the US workforce is corporate than ever before (it's harder and harder to make it as a SMB, including tech SMBs). Also, financial services have reached an all-time high in terms of % of GDP, and that is probably driven by more investment participation from institutions as well as company 401ks (and all that is driven by the performance of publicly-traded firms of course).

So it seems all this is suggesting "the company" is becoming the center of American life. It would be a hard sell to argue that this is a good trend for our country, unless you consider the perspective of the 1%. 

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

The US political merry-go-round

I haven't really been following the midterms, but just wanted to share some general concerns. It just seems like Groundhog Day to me. The incumbents screw up (real or perceived, but the more interesting question is: how was their performance vs. the hypothetical alternative?), supporters are demoralized and fail to mobilize compared to the fired up opposition, and the other party sweeps into power.

If it's a divided gov't, nothing gets done (and it's so unlikely for one party to control 60 Senate seats). If one party has a monopoly on the Executive and Legislative, then they invariably overstep their "mandate", attempt to reverse the recent progress of their rivals, and make their fair share of screw ups too. Then the whole cycle repeats in 2-4 years, and the American people (and the world) are stuck in this futile cycle. For example, the GOP has tried to repeal Obamacare dozens of times, even when they didn't have the Senate. Now that they do, I am sure they will try again, even though it won't get past the Obama veto. And all the while infrastructure, education, climate change, immigration, etc. initiatives just languish while the problems get worse.

The only exceptions to this pattern seem to be (hopefully) rare, unifying security events like Pearl Harbor or 9/11 (Bush's GOP gained seats in 2002), or an especially bullish sustained bubble economy combined with terrible behavior by the opposition legislators (Clinton's Dems gained seats in 1998).
I'm not sure what can be done about this in the short term. Obviously the usual ideas surface: a more active and educated electorate, voting rules reform, a truly popular vote, longer terms and/or term limits, less unlimited dark money in politics, more time on politics and less on campaigning/fundraising, more competitive districts, and frankly better parties and candidates who can behave like gentlepeople and put country first. Clearly our representative gov't is dysfunctional when a majority of the public want tougher gun control, but our leaders are much less amenable. Same goes for bipartisanship, climate change, pot, gay rights, taxes on the rich, even Obamacare (when you peel away the misinformation).

http://billmoyers.com/2014/08/14/a-study-in-plutocracy-rich-americans-wield-political-influence-the-rest-of-us-dont/

Monday, October 27, 2014

What happens when you pay teachers $125K?

Kids learn more and good teachers don't quit, of course! A NYC charter school (TEP) tried it out and saw impressive improvements. After the 4-year pilot, TEP students' test scores were about +1.6 years ahead of peers in math, and +0.4 years ahead in English. And this was not a posh suburban academy, it was an >90% low-income and minority school. 

Granted it was just 1 case, but the results were promising enough that I hope others will try to replicate and scale it up. The school got no additional funding, so the learning gains were basically free. It was able to pay teachers six-figs because they increased avg. class size from 27 to 31, and ran leaner without as many wasteful administrators (middle managers). Everyone employed at that school did both teaching work and leadership/admin stuff, which probably made them feel more empowered and autonomous (key drivers of job satisfaction).

Poor performers did not get the high salary for long; contracts were not renewed for about 1/3 of teachers, and fresh talent was brought in. This motivated teachers to give high effort and maximize their skills/career development. In other words, the ones that could... they earned their pay. And students benefited in the process. Obviously this was only possible at a non-union charter school. Such a program may not "fix" bad inner-city teachers, but at least it has a better chance to retain the good ones (teacher turnover is abysmal in high-needs schools for obvious reasons), and provide motivation for those in between. If we want professional performance, it's not a huge stretch to start treating teachers like professionals. This is especially impactful in high-cost-of-living areas like NYC.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

A marathon in Beijing - REALLY!?!

One of the dumber ideas I've heard about in a while. US soldiers didn't have a choice - they were ordered to fight in our foolish exercise in Iraq. But these runners voluntarily participated and paid money, why!?! Of all the marathons in the world.
I guess this is another reflection of the hubris and obliviousness of Chinese officials. They want to do all the things that the other major global cities do, regardless of feasibility. But how can they put thousands of people in danger for an insignificant race? With all the hard-breathing of a ~3 hr outdoor race during especially hazardous conditions, is that like equivalent damage to a normal person living in Beijing for a month? And don't people know that those dust masks don't do squat against pollutants and particulates as small as smog (2.5 microns diameter, which you need an industrial respirator for)?
But besides the runners, of course millions of people have to live through these horrible conditions for their entire lives (not to mention the questionable safety of their consumer goods, drinking water, workplace conditions, and roadways). The Chinese health system is crap for most people, and the lower-income folks may not be able to afford air purification measures.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Apple and Facebook offer employees egg freezing benefit

News broke that Apple and Facebook provide a new benefit to female employees: they will cover the costs of egg freezing up to $20K. Bloomberg Businessweek says this is the "great equalizer" to "liberate" women, but I call BS. It is pretty disturbing to me for several reasons.

We know that tech is fairly misogynist and gender-unequal, especially in leadership and technical roles. Despite Sanberg's "Lean In" evangelism, most FB leaders are male (the major female execs are her, and in the HR dept). Apple and Google are similar. I don't know if the egg freezing benefit is the most crucial thing that women in tech (or prospective women) need now. In this 2011 list, Apple-FB-Google did not make the top 100 best companies to work for as a mom, despite offering great mat-leave, health care, and subsidized onsite day care. Why? Because the stress and workloads are not worth it. You can set up massage and watering stations at each mile of a Marathon course, but it's still a painful grueling Marathon.

What is the egg freezing signaling? A cynic (like me) would conclude that Apple/FB wants its women to fully focus on work (and work super hard) during their fertile younger years (~25-35). Just like their concierge and commute benefits, this is another way that workers don't have to be bothered by "real life", and can just stay in the work bubble thinking about company goals and their career growth all the time (you know, the truly important things in life). They are all about hacking and disrupting everything, so why can't they disrupt family planning too? Who says you can't have it all as a working mom?

But here's the thing, we know that it's illegal for employers to ask about or discriminate based on family. When a worker decides to start a family, often their career trajectory changes permanently, and managers may subtly or overtly perceive them differently from then on. It's only natural. So the egg freezing is a form of insurance, if you will. Those firms hired supposedly child-less younger women. They may be in relationships, but they will mostly be available for the firm 50-80 hrs/week and ~49 weeks/year. That is what the company expects when it hires. So the egg benefit prolongs that arrangement, for a measly sum of $20K (compare that to 1-6 months mat-leave, and all the lost productivity from childcare responsibilities, illnesses, etc. thereafter). And later when the egg freezer decides to finally start a family, the company can marginalize her to a lesser role, eventually replacing her with a man/new young woman. She's already contributed her value to the firm, now she can "go to pasture" and be a mom at Yahoo or Intel.

I could be underestimating Si Valley snobbery, but I think the # of women who will use this benefit will be small, and the # of women thawing their eggs later to start a family even smaller. Biologically, it's more likely they will have kids naturally. But for those who do choose to freeze and have a family via IVF, it won't be a cake walk either. Success rates are under 20% per egg. The mom might be 35-45 at that point. The older you get, the harder it is to deal with the physical strains of motherhood (unless they plan to nanny everything like Marisa Meyer). And by then they would be mid-career, with even more responsibilities and stress vs. their 20's. So is that a better time to start a family? Sure they'll be richer, but it may also be harder to transition from office rock-star to working mommy. So is the egg benefit just a scam from Apple and FB, tricking talented younger women to postpone their family plans to their detriment? And I don't know if there is data on it, but I wonder if child outcomes are different when the parents are older or younger. Of course teen parents are not preferable either, but I wonder if there is such a thing as "too old". Kids will still need their parents when they are 20-30, and it's just harder when they are geriatric by then. 

Lastly, what about the whole cryo-egg/IVF approach? Obviously it is not an option for most women, and is generally monopolized by wealthier white/Asian people (which tech is too). Will this further the rich-poor & racial gaps? Older pregnancies are a larger health risk for both mother and child. One option is a surrogate mom (pay a younger, poorer lady to carry your fetus - she's just renting out her excess capacity like AirBnB, right?). That is such a First World Problem: build vs. buy right? Outsource the non-value-add stuff, so you can focus on making money. Never compromise, innovate to have your cake and eat it too.

But it also reeks of exploitation. It's kind of sick - search for "surrogate mother" and you get a bunch of ads and sites trying to recruit wombs. Obviously demand > supply, especially with the rise of the Chinese upper class. And older couples who want to conceive will often pay any price. Those with medical need should have access to IVF, but what about those who elected to delay parenthood for their careers? That is kind of like paying to jump the line at Disneyland, or for organ donation. Clearly such procedures like IVF are not equal-opportunity, but the poor have the opposite problem - they sometime have too many kids because of lack of education and access to affordable contraception (as we discussed previously during the Hobby Lobby ruling).

There is even "surrogacy tourism" where Western couples lease a Third World womb (really, are they that cheap that they have to offshore it?). A case in Thailand made the headlines because an AUS couple may have "abandoned" one of their twins after discovering he had Down's (they left him with the surrogate Thai mom and returned home with the "desirable" twin). This is just one incident, but you can imagine the ethical and legal minefield that surrogacy presents.

All the sci-fi stuff from our childhood like Brave New World and Gattaca seem to be getting too close for comfort. Those in the "elite" class get all the privileges and get to lead charmed lives (yes, you can have it all when you work for Apple/FB!), and the rest of humanity just serves them, with the narrow/false hope of joining their ranks some day.

-----

This may also be a symptom of the competitiveness of silicon valley.  What else can you offer once money, food, on site massage, etc is covered?  The incentives are only going to get weirder at this point.

-----

I agree that there is an "arms race" re: employee benefits to attract good talent, but remember that Google, Apple, and maybe some others got sued for anti-competitive practices (no engineer poaching collusion to keep comp in check), but FB was not involved. So I guess several forces are affecting benefits. Supposedly US raises are being depressed by the rising costs of health coverage too.

If you took a poll at Apple on what new/enhanced benefits the workforce really wants, I doubt that egg freezing would be high on the list. I think it was a pet project by some HR person to "be innovative" and make some news. I assume the workforce really wants (1) more pay, (2) more vacation (true vacation, as in totally unplugged time), (3) more flex time, and (4) more coaching/training/career dev, not necessarily in that order. But most employers won't budge on that stuff. Speaking of vacation, some companies like Netflix offer unlimited paid vacation. But as you can imagine, this could have the opposite effect (workers scared to ask for a lot of time off, and without a vacation stipend, the firm saves money by not paying out unused balance).

There are some "nefarious benefits" that actually benefit the firm more than the worker. Like offering free dinner - that could encourage workers to stay later (with no OT pay) and the company gets a little more productivity out of them (even if they goof off much of that time). It got so bad at EA that workers sued to reclaim OT and become hourly workers, so at least they get comped for their longer hours. So I think the egg freezing is part of that - it delays family life, which benefits the company possibly at the expense of the worker. 

Saturday, October 4, 2014

Leaked tapes reveal "regulatory capture" at the NY Fed

In some cases, managers observed behaviors indicating regulatory capture (in other words, when the regulator is kowtowing and in the pocket of the regulatee) as soon as 3 months after the agent was assigned to the bank. But the greater fault was the lack of policy/oversight to prevent this, and the managerial inaction once it was identified. Corruption and human nature will always be with us, so what is the point of a regulatory agency that can't even properly police itself?

The VA, ICE, ATF, NSA, IRS, Secret Service, CONGRESS... I know these recent negative cases may skew the overall assessment of gov't effectiveness, but do they represent a sufficient mass to conclude that our country is seriously broken? What is the point of paying for a gov't that delivers this level of performance? Well, we know that our gov't works extremely well for certain segments of our society, but our leaders need to remember that the middle class in aggregate represents a larger tax base and voting bloc than the rich (and will always be so).

Monday, September 22, 2014

The foolish drumbeat for war against ISIS

ISIS is a problem for the US and many of our partners, that is obvious. But it is not an acute problem, nor the only problem facing our civilization (you wouldn't know it after listening to many in DC though). And let's be clear; Obama and company didn't decide to intervene militarily to save some poor religious minority stuck on a mountain (that very few of us even knew existed before the summer). ISIS was getting the upper hand against the best Kurdish troops, and the Kurds are the only reasonably trustworthy/capable/secular petro-ally we have left in Mesopotamia. So something had to be done.   

Just because we've pretty much marginalized groups like Al Qaeda (and its affiliates such as AQAP) through cyber warfare and drones, and we're washing our hands of the Taliban (pretty much raised the white flag there), we need a new Islamist bogeyman to fixate on. ISIS has shown some impressive strategy and execution (and atrocious behavior/beliefs) in seizing/holding Arab lands, but of course they exploited a lot of favorable conditions in the region to do so. It is a whole different matter to mount a major attack on a Western power. But that is exactly what everyone is predicting they are up to (and capable of). Heck, they could be already here!

This is what the former director of the Nat'l Counterterrorism Center (Matt Olson) said about ISIS' capability to attack the US: “There is no credible information that [Isis] is planning to attack the United States”. He added there was “no indication at this point of a cell of foreign fighters operating in the United States – full stop”. [Olson] said said it was “spot on” to conclude that Isis is significantly more limited than al-Qaida was, for example, in the run-up to 9/11, when it had underground cells across Europe and the US. “We certainly aren’t there,” Olsen said. “[Isis] is not al-Qaida pre-9/11”.

Yet this is what Lindsey Graham, who is a senior member of the Senate Armed Svcs. Cmte., said about ISIS: "They are coming here. It is about our homeland."
I can't begin to comment how grossly irresponsible and misleading this is from someone who has access to actual intel and expert opinion (and helps craft defense policy as well). And Boehner wants to try to impeach Obama for misconduct? Shitheads like Graham are just repeating the same garbage that led the public to believe Saddam had WMDs. Because when your family and your home are in perceived jeopardy, your better judgment weakens and you may become more susceptible to suggestion.

So why did Obama and company go from a "wait and see" approach with Syria to forming a "coalition" to "destroy" ISIS (without risking any US troops of course)? Cynics would say because public opinion rapidly shifted from 70% against intervention to 60% pro, but they have a point. Why did opinion shift so much? Because of 2 videos of journalists being executed. That shows you how stupid this country is (incl. Obama on down). While those deaths were barbaric and tragic, I'm sorry to say that worse shit is occurring every damn day in many places across the globe (ISIS is doing much worse stuff to non-Americans too - where are those videos?). But those are places that we don't care about (Central Africa, Latin America) or don't have the stomach/chutzpah to really intervene (China, Palestine). More Americans died in Benghazi, and while the GOP had a shitfit about it, no one was calling for war against the parties responsible. Islamic Jihad bombed and killed over 200 servicemen in 1983, and Reagan not only failed to respond, but pulled us out of Lebanon! Very rarely (if ever) do sound decisions result from vengeful, fearful sentiment.

Air power alone will not stop an insurgency - we've seen that in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and other places. Maybe it will slow ISIS down and take out some leaders (but of course it may also motivate them to try harder to attack our homeland - ironically the very threat that we're working to avoid). So what do we do about the inevitable escalation decision? Remember that Islamists have "home field advantage" and want to provoke the infidel powers into a protracted quagmire. Maybe that's why they released the videos? Will we take the bait again?

Plus, let's remember that hurting ISIS may help Assad and Iran - two regimes that we should probably be focusing on more. Lastly, if ISIS is such a concern, why aren't our Middle East "friends" helping us in this fight (or fighting them already without our participation)? Kerry is literally going door-to-door. Israel spent billions to level Gaza (again), but are they lifting a finger to assist with ISIS (which is on their doorstep)? The Saudis are offering to "train Syrian rebels" on their soil (mostly because they already hate Assad/Iran, and have been a source of anti-Assad Jihadists for years). Turkey may block the flow of money and fighters into Syria. Jordan may provide "intel". That's about it.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/05/us-core-coalition-fight-isis-militants-iraq-nato
http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/14/world/meast/isis-coalition-nations/

It's also an interesting coincidence (or more than that) that the neocon-leaning pundits and politicians, who are vociferously calling for military action, are also funded by America's major defense companies. As overall defense budgets are getting scrutinized and spending in Iraq/Afghanistan is winding down, the death dealers need a new conflict theater to peddle and exploit.

http://billmoyers.com/2014/09/17/whos-paying-the-pro-war-pundits/

PS - did you wonder why Obama and others in DC refer to ISIS as ISIL, and don't use the official name of Islamic State either? Obviously they don't want to use the word "Islamic" if they can avoid it, which suggests that this is another Crusade or anti-Islam conquest. But the ISIL acronym avoids the hot-button word of Syria. The US is more comfortable with bombing Iraq - we've been doing it for decades and we have relations with the various groups. But with Syria (the conflict that Obama has avoided for 3+ years), it's a total cluster F and we obviously can't tell a moderate rebel from a crazy one. So ISIL allows Obama and company the official excuse/cover to avoid the Syrian portion of the war. This is just a hypothesis of course.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/09/isis-vs-isil-vs-islamic-state-the-political-importance-of-a-much-debated-acronym/

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Why it's so hard to get out of poverty

The situations and constraints that the poor find themselves in often lead to short-term thinking and counter-productive behaviors. They don't do it because they're irrational and/or like being poor. Even the "self-made Masters of the Universe" (conservatives like Romney, Ryan, Hannity, Trump, etc. who blame the poor for being poor) would likely do no better in their shoes.

Also, the ludicrous propaganda that the poor somehow live large off the rest of us and strategically exploit social programs when they could be working is really backed by no statistical evidence (but of course anecdotes exist). But stereotypes like that make it easier for society to ignore/dismiss/hate the poor, against our compassionate tendencies and the teachings of virtually every religious/moral code known to man.

Cop killers

I don't know why many US police officers are so hostile/scared of urban black men, when it's probably more likely they will be killed by a "white trash" man. The Obama admin. implemented some protective measures during their 1st term and police deaths fell sharply since 2011. Statistically, being a US cop is safer now than the overall workforce average. And many police deaths were self-inflicted due to not wearing seat belts or distracted driving.
Not so for being a black man (and you can't really quit that like a bad job). Supposedly a black person is killed in the US every 1-2 days by police. I'm pretty confident that a sizable % of those were unnecessary.

http://www.occupy.com/article/black-man-killed-us-every-28-hours-police

Re: cop shootings, I couldn't get stats on the races of the shooters. But considering US demographics, it's very unlikely that blacks are the majority of them, despite what gangsta rappers claim. So it is just racism/ignorance that explains police perceptions and treatment of blacks?

http://www.odmp.org/search/year?year=2014

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Vets react to Ferguson police

This story is so idiotic and some of us discussed it already on FB, so I will try to be brief. I just thank heavens that the Ferguson cops didn't gravely injure and kill a lot of people in their frenzy. Apart from the actual shooting incident (details of which are still indeterminate), the police's "peacekeeping effort"s have been so off the deep end - almost rivaling Kent State territory, or the Occupied Territories.

This is similar to the gun issue, I think. some Americans may believe that tech/weapons/stuff can suffice as solutions to threats and problems (obviously the arms industry wants us to believe that). Maybe it's true that overwhelming force helps when you are trying to wipe out an enemy batallion or seize territory. But obviously the iron fist approach breaks down in occupations/insurgencies (too many examples to list), and should never be the goal of a police operation. Because unlike an army that can withdraw and go home after a victory (and the aftermath of their violence is not really a top concern), the next day the cops have to still live with the people they scared/harassed/hurt - and likely for many more days afterward. That's why managing relationships and de-escalating conflicts are better than "crushing your enemy", and no advanced weapons system can do that better than an intelligent, compassionate, well-trained peace officer (even if they're unarmed, like the UK and Norwegian cops). What happened to having a conversation, especially when many of the protesters were nonviolent and within their Constitutional rights?

As the vets who tweeted in that article said, a show of force can be counter-productive if the objective is to manage an angry population. Clearly the gear by itself is not enough to maintain order long-term, but such weaponry in the hands of undisciplined, untrained, and probably prejudiced/beligerent morons is even worse. "Petty force" by petty bullies, as David Brooks said recently. All that gear makes them feel like Rambo, and Rambo doesn't take no shit from no one (the whole SYG convo we had). If our occupying soldiers (with less gear and employing less heavy-handed tactics) could often coexist with Iraqis and Afghans, who were bigger threats and hated them more than black people may (justifiably) hate US cops, then what are police forces like Ferguson trying to achieve?

I thought the crackdowns on the WTO and OWS protesters were bad, but they look like Boy Scouts in comparison. I fear that episodes like Ferguson are going to happen again and again, because the underlying forces are unchanged or getting worse (us vs. them style policing, surplus wargear that someone wants to find a use for, community inequality/segregation, culture of fear/violence in America). What concerns me is who can/will step in if amateurish police depts like Ferguson go too far? Even with the media everywhere, they didn't care. The police were acting like fascists, as one vet said. I am pretty sure no one is going to lose their job over this though, which adds to the tragedy.

So in the future, if a dept. displays even worse judgment, who will step in to protect the citizenry? That is supposed to be the cops' job, but what happens when they become the threat? Will the governor deploy the National Guard in a timely manner? Courts and investigations happen after the dust has settled, but who will stand up to the cops in the moment? Unfortunately this may make citizens feel like they need to take matters into hands (a la Cliven Bundy and right-wing militias), which will only perpetuate the cycle of distrust/violence and feed the police's mania.

Other links:
Eric Garner case
Police misconduct costs communities hundreds of millions in lawsuits a year
Bill Maher even before Ferguson and Garner happened
Military compared to cops

Thursday, August 7, 2014

The aftermath of the Gaza war

Sorry for the long commentary below. It just kinda snowballed and I thought these articles made a lot of interesting points.

As before, sentiment in Europe is generally more anti-Israel than in America. This is possibly driven by the larger Muslim populations in the EU, as well as those gov'ts more dovish politics vs. America's. However, the pro-Israel camp is chalking this up to deeply-rooted European anti-Semitism (affecting as many as 165MM Europeans according to some of their think tanks - but then again, when you are a hammer, you see nails everywhere). Strange that the "anti-Semitism" only rears its ugly head when the IDF murders scores of Palestinian kids. I guess they only come out when the liberal, pro-Hamas media incite them? Obviously that is ridiculous, and I think most Europeans don't have a problem with Israel (or worldwide Jewry) when that country isn't breaking laws and hurting people. Unfortunately, there has been some real anti-Semitism too. I am not sure about the death/damage from hate crimes, but some Jewish establishments in the EU have closed as a precaution until the war blows over. Still, some hateful words at an overseas rally is different than a modern military destroying lives and property of poor people, and not compensating them for it (as usual, the international community will pay the tab of Gaza rebuilding - only to be leveled again in the next war).

Globescan took an average of 20 countries' opinions on whether certain nations had overall positive or negative influences on the world. GER, CAN, and UK lead the pack with about a 3:1 ratio of positive-to-negative. US and China are similar at 1:1 (way to be a zero, USA! USA!). Israel is in between Russia and N Korea, at about 1:2 negative (however they can still gloat that they are better than Iran, at over 1:3 negative). I know opinion polls have limited value, and I don't know how they selected respondents, but this seems to suggest that world opinion is generally negative on Israel. Hamas/Palestine was not part of the survey, but I can imagine their rating would be pretty low too. Israel might chalk this up to ignorance or anti-Semitism again, but this survey was about a country's impact on the world, and more Jews live outside of Israel than within it. I think it's a reflection of gov't policies.

In the US, non-Republicans and Americans under 50 tend to evaluate Israel's actions in Gaza as unjustified, while older folks and Republicans (who tend to be Evangelicals) take the opposite view. Regarding age, this is likely influenced by memory - folks over 50 may actually remember the Arab-Israeli wars (when it was an old-fashioned army vs. army fight, not occupying bully vs. poor resistor). So that clouds their perception of the current conflict, and like Fox News, they may only see Israel as the innocent victim surrounded by strong, evil enemies. This is likely how the Tel Aviv propaganda machine wants us to feel, even if it's incompatible with current realities.

The West is also seeing Israel become less Western. The Economist says that this could be driven by the 1990s influx of 1MM Eastern European Jews who were less educated than previous waves of emigres, and not accustomed to democracy and Western thinking (they may have lived under the Soviet regime). They are part of the "might makes right" camp, and may be more accepting of brutality to ensure a strong, secure Jewish State. This has manifested itself in internal media censorship, marginalization of the peace movement, more racism toward Palestinians, and possibly the rise of Likud over Kadima a few years ago. The West may have less in common culturally with Israel now, thereby reducing the likelihood that we will agree on policies, priorities, and tactics. Maybe that is why many in the West are outraged about the civilian casualties and expect the IDF to hold themselves to higher standards than that. Whereas the Israelis may take it less seriously, or prefer to focus on Hamas' role in the casualties - whether accurate or not (stop using them as human shields, if you didn't fire rockets we wouldn't have to invade in the first place, they don't accept our right to exist, etc.). Still, allies don't have to totally understand each other to have a fruitful relationship. However, what has the West really gotten out of its relations and investments in Israel? Israel would say that they are the front lines of the War on Terror (similar to Pakistan, but the difference is we fully acknowledge the problems associated with our partnership with Pakistan), and they keep madmen like Assad and Ahmadinejad in check. I don't buy that, because Sunni nations in the area can fill that role if Israel wasn't involved (and they would likely do it less belligerently). Israel obviously contributes a lot of good to the world in terms of science, commerce, and human capital - but I seriously question their value to US strategy/interests in the region (esp. for the price tag - both financial and perceptual).

Israel could be reacting to this souring Western sentiment in 2 ways, both of which are not helpful for the future. (1) If Europe and younger, non-Republican Americans are so anti-Semitic, we won't be able to count on them when times get tough. Therefore, let's just do what we want and not care about their opinions. Pro-Israel lobbying will make sure US aid will still flow and we'll prevail. (2) We need a PR offensive in the West. To counter all the pro-Palestinian lying voices on social media, let's shout louder and re-hash the IDF's talking points. Westerners are just being deceived; let's show them the truth.

Re: (1), it's never a good thing when a state is accountable to no one. It's not that Israel isn't reliant on other nations (not necessarily for survival, but they are not immune to sanctions either), but those partners are unlikely to administer the tough love if Israel oversteps its bounds. Or in other words, people may rather let Arabs/Palestinians suffer than dealing with the costs of disciplining Israel. Re: (2), it's sometime true that many people will believe a huge lie, but usually the public can sniff out BS. I say this time and time again, but if your side is so right, why do you need to bend over backward to convince people? It should be self-evident. Like no matter how many millions the Chinese spend on PR and what defaming things they say about the Dalai Lama, I think very few non-Chinese will side with them on the Tibet issue. 

---

Regarding the fragile ceasefire now and potential peace resolution, Norman Finkelstein (the DN link) has an interesting, and disconcerting take. The vast majority of Israelis support actions like the current Gaza war (because they feel it makes them safer, costs them little, and hurts their sworn enemy), and are not that serious about working hard for a two-state solution (little to gain from their perspective and potentially a lot to lose in terms of national pride/Zionism and security). Unfortunately, their history in Gaza has only reinforced this. After Sharon pulled the settlers out, Hamas took over and the rockets started to rain down. Israel was "forced" to invade at least 3 times. Maybe some in Israel feel that it was better when they outright controlled Gaza (now they are more like prison guards). So the land-for-peace model seemed to fall on its face, and Israelis may have less faith in it for the future.

So re: Gaza, some refer to it as "mowing the lawn." Every now and then, they have to blow stuff up, to keep them off balance for the next time Israel "has to" invade. So this current invasion is not about the 3 Israeli teens, not about the rockets, and not about the tunnels supposedly infiltrating Israel proper (you see how the gov't changed its premise for war mid-stream just like the Bushies?). Regarding the teens, there is no proof that Hamas was behind that, and some new evidence suggests the contrary. That was a tragedy, but not justification for a war. Regarding the rockets, the new Egyptian regime (that took over after Mubarak) destroyed most of the smuggling tunnels on that border, so it is very unlikely that Hamas is well stocked or equipped with newer "super rockets" from Iran that are supposedly deadlier. Regarding the tunnels into Israel - a tunnel has 2 openings, right? Why go through the effort of invading Gaza and killing thousands when Israel can just destroy the tunnel openings on their side any time they want (if such tunnels exist)? Also, attacking hospitals and a power plant have nothing to do with those stated goals. So this war is more and more looking like just mowing the lawn. They learned their lesson from the problemating Lebanon invasion. They don't want Hamas to "fortify" Gaza and make it harder for them if a serious invasion becomes necessary. Hamas is a lot weaker than Hezbollah, but they have been building tunnels and defenses within Gaza. That could help explain why the IDF death toll this year was around 60 soldiers, vs. 10 in their 2008 Cast Lead invasion. But they have spent this month destroying all that Hamas stuff. So clearly Gaza is not "independent" if Israel has this level of destructive influence on a whim.

Finkelstein thinks that the ceasefire will hold because Israel has finished mowing the lawn for now. Israel ends an invasion when (a) their objectives are met or (b) there are no more targets to attack except ones that would involve an unacceptable level of civilian or IDF deaths. Even the IDF realizes that if they went deeper into the most populated areas of Gaza, the death toll could be 5-10X higher, and then they might have real issues with the int'l community. Also, if they press on, they risk losing more soldiers - and being a conscript army, the Israeli public is very sensitive to losses. That's why they bomb targets to hell (in spite of collateral damage) before they put boots on the ground. But still, no more targets are available in Gaza without incurring higher risks. He also predicts that Hamas will agree to peace with the conditions that the blockade is lifted and Fatah polices the border crossings. That would essentially neutralize Hamas' ability to put up any meaningful resistance in the future, and I am not sure how many functional rockets/ammo they still have in storage. So in a sense, this lawn mowing strategy has worked for Israel. The rockets and small IDF losses were minor annoyances, but they eventually may get Hamas to disarm and fade out of relevance. If that plays out, it would set a scary precedent for Israel and other occupying powers. Take the hard-line approach but blame the resistance for the violence. You have the resources and staying power, so keep the pressure on and starve the resistance into irrelevance. This is pretty much what Syria, Sudan, and Russia did/are doing. So no one has to make a deal or make concessions for peace, you can beat the resistance into submission.

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Children fleeing Central America

I found this interesting. Of the 50K or so children picked up at the US-MEX border in the last 6 months, most of them are from Guatemala/Honduras/El Salvador, yet very few are from neighboring Nicaragua.

Of course Honduras is the murder capital of the Americas (if not the world), so Nicaragua by default has less violence. All of those countries are pretty poor, but Nicaragua has much less drug gang violence and a different immigration history with the US. It stems from the Cold War. The US interfered in the affairs of all those nations to support pro-US, right-wing forces against leftist opponents. For Nicaragua, the US backed the Contra rebels against the Sandinista gov't (which, with popular support, overthrew the US-backed Somoza dictatorship beforehand). Because of that, the US was more welcoming of Nicaraguan refugees in the 1980s, similar to pro-American Cubans and Hmong. So the ones who wanted to leave may be already here. In addition, after the civil war Nicaragua invested more in functional law enforcement, community development, and proactive gov't (without America's help). The Sandinistas were recently elected back to power.

For those other nations, the US supported the repressive, corrupt, right-wing regimes in power against leftist insurgents. So refugees fleeing those nations were not as welcomed in the US (and no specific provisions were written for them). It could be coincidence, but it's likely that the US support for those less democratic, more brutal regimes paved the way for the lawlessness, violence, and misery today. Therefore, do we have somewhat of a moral obligation to help the fleeing kids?

Sunday, August 3, 2014

Is Israel's invasion of Gaza good for their interests?

This is the only time I'll be referencing a Hannity video. :) When even the united front of FNC is fraying over Israel's conduct in Gaza, you know the conflict has turned a page. Geraldo, a self-proclaimed Zionist who "would die for Israel" and apparently has a Star of David tattoo, said that the excessive carnage caused by the IDF is counter-productive to the interests of the Jewish State. It's increasing anti-Semitism (or at least reducing support for Israel), and not getting any closer to their stated goal of disarming/destroying Hamas.

Israel has air superiority. Why can't they have gunships and drones circling 24-7 to shoot at potential missile sites BEFORE they launch? Returning fire on a site where fighters may have already vacated seems stupid - especially when that site is a humanitarian one. And shelling is the worst military response - lower accuracy and higher chance of collateral damage. That is the lazy man's approach (which also shows a lack of caring, especially when they have other options at their disposal). Bullets may also hit the wrong people, but at least it won't level buildings and crush kids. I am not sure if Hamas has surface-to-air missiles, but it seems to me that Israel is not making all reasonable efforts to minimize risk to noncombatants. This is possibly due to the perception among some in Israel that all Gazans are fair game because they dislike Israel and tolerate/support Hamas.  

But since the Torah gets invoked from time to time on this issue, take a look at Genesis 18. God would even spare all of Sodom if he could find 10 innocents living among the wicked. I am not a Bible expert, and it seems that Sodom got wiped out by fire and brimstone later (maybe no innocents were found? :P), but I think there are at least 10 innocents among the slain in Gaza. I wonder what the IDF rabbis would say to that. And Abraham is the PATRIARCH of the Jews, not some peacenik or Israel hater.

Abraham pleads for Sodom:

16 When the men got up to leave, they looked down toward Sodom, and Abraham walked along with them to see them on their way. 17 Then the LORD said, "Shall I hide from Abraham what I am about to do? 18 Abraham will surely become a great and powerful nation, and all nations on earth will be blessed through him. 19 For I have chosen him, so that he will direct his children and his household after him to keep the way of the LORD by doing what is right and just, so that the LORD will bring about for Abraham what he has promised him." 20 Then the LORD said, "The outcry against Sodom and Gomorrah is so great and their sin so grievous 21 that I will go down and see if what they have done is as bad as the outcry that has reached me. If not, I will know." 22 The men turned away and went toward Sodom, but Abraham remained standing before the LORD. 23 Then Abraham approached him and said: "Will you sweep away the righteous with the wicked? 24 What if there are fifty righteous people in the city? Will you really sweep it away and not spare the place for the sake of the fifty righteous people in it? 25 Far be it from you to do such a thing--to kill the righteous with the wicked, treating the righteous and the wicked alike. Far be it from you! Will not the Judge of all the earth do right?" 26 The LORD said, "If I find fifty righteous people in the city of Sodom, I will spare the whole place for their sake." 27 Then Abraham spoke up again: "Now that I have been so bold as to speak to the Lord, though I am nothing but dust and ashes, 28 what if the number of the righteous is five less than fifty? Will you destroy the whole city because of five people?" "If I find forty-five there," he said, "I will not destroy it." 29 Once again he spoke to him, "What if only forty are found there?" He said, "For the sake of forty, I will not do it." 30 Then he said, "May the Lord not be angry, but let me speak. What if only thirty can be found there?" He answered, "I will not do it if I find thirty there." 31 Abraham said, "Now that I have been so bold as to speak to the Lord, what if only twenty can be found there?" He said, "For the sake of twenty, I will not destroy it." 32 Then he said, "May the Lord not be angry, but let me speak just once more. What if only ten can be found there?" He answered, "For the sake of ten, I will not destroy it." 33 When the LORD had finished speaking with Abraham, he left, and Abraham returned home.